TRAINING PROGRAMME ON “PROJECT APPRAISAL, RISK …

TRAINING PROGRAMME ON “PROJECT APPRAISAL, RISK ANALYSIS AND RISK MANAGEMENT”

PROJECT APPRAISAL CONSULTANTS will conduct a Training Programme on “Project Appraisal, Risk

Analysis and Risk Management” as mentioned below.

Dates : 02nd February to 05th February 2015 [09:30 AM to 05:00 PM]

Venue : Lecture Room 1 (Annexe) India International Centre, 40 Max Mueller Marg, New Delhi

This training programme will cover financial aspects of project appraisal, quantitative risk analysis

and risk management of projects/investments. Risk Analysis will cover Sensivity Analysis, Scenario

Analysis and Monte Carlo simulation for quantifying risks and management of risks. Monte Carlo

simulation of Project returns (NPV, IRR, BC Ratio)

will be done by using Crystal Ball software.

This training programme will be taught with

case exercises and by use of latest project

appraisal techniques as are being taught in the

leading universities in the world over and also

accepted by International and National lending

institutions. The participants will be required to

do case excercises on daily basis, on computers

by use of Excel, covering pro-forma cash flow

statements, calculation of Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, Benefit Cost Ratio, Sensitivity

Analysis and identification of sensitive/risk variables, scenario analysis, quantitative risk analysis

by the use of Monte Carlo simulation [with Crystal Ball software] and develop Risk Management

options available to decision makers. This programme will equip the participants with skills for

development of efficient risk management options and decision making in marginal projects.

This programme has been designed for officers from Indian Administrative Service, Central Civil Services,

State Civil Services, State finance/planning

services, Central/State PSU’s, Banks, Engineering

Departments, NGO’s, Private organisations,

Investment Companies/Banks etc., who examine

projects/programmes and propose decisions on

projects/programmes for their implmentation as

well as for developing risk management options.

The participants would be required to bring their

own laptop computers to the training programme.


Financial/economic costs, Real and nominal costs, Revenue, Receipts, expenses, expenditure, Accounts payable, •Accounts Receivable, Accounting concepts – Accrual and Cash forms of Accounting.

Opportunity cost of public funds, different methods to calculate discount rate, Inflating, Deflating, Discounting, •Compounding, Annuity, Weighted Average Cost of Capital(WACC). Real and nominal discount rates and discount factors, Real and nominal interest rates.

Pro forma Cash Flow Statements, (from perspectives of equity holders, Banks, Government Budget and Economy.•

Al• ternative investment Criteria, Net present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR), Payback period, Cost-Effective methods. Which one to use and where?

A• ll six effects of inflation on project viability – Financing project investment, depreciation deductions and tax saving, interest expenses and tax deductions, Cost of Goods Sold [COGS], First In First Out [FIFO] and Last In First Out [LIFO], Loan repayments and the need to have Desired Cash Balance [DCB].

Incremental• /Scale analysis, How to determine optimum Scale/Size of a project. Scale versus NPV, Incremental NPV, IRR and Incremental IRR.

Op• timum time to start a project or close a project. Different cases.

D• ifferences between financial and economic investment analysis. Analysis of financial/economic profiles from alternate point of view (owner, banker, state budget and economy).

D• istributive / Social analysis of projects, differentiated distributional weights of costs/benefits for different sections of society.

W• hat is Sensivity analysis? Why and how is it done? Identification of Sensitive and Risk Variables. Usefulness and limitation of Sensivity analysis. Case exercise.

S• cenario analysis. What are worst case, best case and most expected case scenarioes. Limitations of Scenario analysis. Case exercise on Scenario analysis.

W• hat is Risk Analysis? Characteristics of probability distributions, different types of Probability distributions, Assignments of probability distributions to sensitive project variables, use Monte Carlo simulation to get project return (NPV, IRR/ BC Ratio) distributions, quantifying risks, Interpretation of project output results and variability.

Sel• ection of projects by risk averse and risk lovers. why mode values of inputs do not give best possible project outputs. Uncertainty and risk, Value of Information and cost of uncertainty, expected value of loss and expected value of gain. Expected loss ratio. Usefulness and limitations of risk analysis in project appraisal.

Ris• k Management - various risk management options such as - do nothing, reduce level protection or regulation level, obtain more information and data about project variables accurately, avoid high impact risks, mitigate risks, contingency planning, create risk reserve, Insurance, risk transfer through contracts, How to evaluate risk management options ?Case exercise by use of Crystal Ball software to illustrate the management of project risks. Assigning corre• lation among different project variables, understanding change in standard deviations and coefficient of variations in project return [NPV and IRR] after assigning correlations among risk variables.

CONTENTS


The faculty who will teach this programme have taught in leading Universities such as Harvard University, Duke University etc., and have worked at top level positions in States as well as Central Government in India. The lead faculties for this programme are:

Jarnail Singh is the Chief Executive Officer of Project Appraisal Consultants and is responsible for managing the entire operations of the Programme. He is a Master of Science in Electrical Engineering (Distinction) from Punjab University and Master in Public Administration from Harvard University (USA). As a member of the Indian Administrative Service, he has held several important positions in India including Secretary to Government of India, Chief Secretary of Manipur State and Joint Secretary to Prime Minister. He has been a Teaching Assistant for “Appraisal of Development Expenditure” course for graduate students in the Harvard University. He has also taught in the “Program in Investment Appraisal & Management (PIAM)” conducted by the Harvard Institute for International Development (HIID). While at the Harvard University he was associated with appraising of projects for different countries. He is a recipient of the “Prime Minister ’s Award for Excellence in Public Administration” for the year 2007-08.

Dr. D. N. S. Dhakal is a senior fellow at Duke Centre for International Development (DCID), Duke University, USA. He has been working in Executive Programs of DCID on Project Appraisal and Risk Management and Fiscal Decentralization and Local Government since 2001. Dr Dhakal had taught the Program on “Project Investment Appraisal and Management” at Harvard Institute for International Development (HIID), and also teaches now “Economic Appraisal and Stakeholder Analysis for Investment Appraisal” in overseas countries for John Deutsch International Executive Program, Department of Economics, of Queen’s University,

Kingston, Ontario, Canada, Social Cost Benefit Analysis at IDE Advanced School in Tokyo, Japan. Dr Dhakal is a partner of Project Appraisal Consultant in Delhi and also serves as a senior economist at Cambridge Resource International, a private international consulting firm based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.

Other Faculty Members include experienced civil servants who have studied this area in world class universities.

LUNCH

BREA

TEA

BREA

Date & Day 09:30-11:00hrs

Effects of Inflation on

Benefit Cost Ratio [B/C], PayBack Period, Cost EffectiveMethods, Distributive /

Social analysis

Introduction tothe Programme,

Classification of Costs,Real &Nominal values, Accrual &Cash forms of accounting

02 FebruaryMonday

03 FebruaryTuesday

04 February

11:15-13:00 hrs

Effects of Inflation on Project

Incremental / Scale analysisHow to determine optimumsize of a Project?. Optimum

time to start a project

Preparation of Proforma Cashflow statements fromdifferent perspectives

TEA

BRE

TRAINING PROGRAMME SCHEDULE on

Project Appraisal, Risk Analysis and Risk Management from 2nd February to 5th February 2015

13:45-15:15 hrs

Case exercise on calculation ofNPV/IRR, BC Ratio and Scaleanalysis, What is Sensitive

Analysis?

Oportunity Cost of Public Funds, Different Investment Criteria,

Net Present Value [NPV,Internal Rate of Return [IRR] ]

Methods and Examples

Risk Analysis and Scenario

15:30 - 17:00Hrs

Case excercise covering inflation

Case exercise on ProformaCash Flow statements fromdifferent perspectives,Calculation of NPV, IRR

Case exercise on SensitivityAnalysis to be done by the

participants

BREAK

BREAK

Effects of Inflation onProject Viabilty I

04 FebruaryWednesday

05 FebruaryThrusday

Quantitative Risk Analysis(Monte Carlo Simulation)

Effects of Inflation on ProjectViability II, Estimation of Risk

Premium

Risk Analysis Continued,Interpretion of project output[NPV, IRR, BC Ratio] Results

BREAK

Risk Analysis and ScenarioAnalysis, Decision making

criteria for lenders

Case excercise on Risk Analysis(Assigning Probabilities to

sensitive variables, Monte CarloSimulation, Interpretion ofSimulation Results) Risk

Management

Case excercise covering inflationeffects on project viability,

Scenario Analysis for owners,Lenders, Economy & Government

Risk Management &Development of effiecient

Risk Management options fordifferent Stakeholders

SCHEDULE OF THE PROGRAMME

FACULTY


PROGRAMME DATES

The training programme will be conducted from 02nd February [Monday] to 05th February [Thrusday] 2015. Teaching schedule is 9.30 AM to 5.00 PM daily.

VENUE

Venue is Lecture Room 1 (Annexe) of India International Centre, 40 Max Mueller Marg New Delhi 110003

TEA AND LUNCH

The participants would be provided tea at 11:00 AM and 3.15 PM as well as lunch at 1.00 PM.

The participants would be required to make their own arrangements for stay in Delhi. The participants must bring their own laptop computers with Excel programme for doing case exercises. The participants would be provided lecture notes and required reading materials.

TRAINING FEES

The fee for the training programme is `44,944 (``40,000 Plus ``4,944 as service tax) per participant. Training fee would be payable through Cheque or bank draft payable at Delhi to “Project Appraisal Consultants LLP” or can be transferred to bank account of “Project Appraisal Consultants LLP”, which can be obtained through email. The cheque/bank draft and nominations should be sent to following address: JARNAIL SINGH B0/2 Welcomgroup CGHS Ltd. Plot 6, Sector 3 Dwarka, New Delhi 110078

LAST DATE FOR NOMINATIONS/APPLICATIONS IS 15TH JANUARY 2015

For enquiry and registration contact : Email:- [email protected], [email protected].

PREVIOUS PROGRAMMES Project Appraisal Consultants have conducted two such programme; first from 10th to 14th February 2014 and second from 03rd to 7th March 2014. These programmes were attended by 67 participants from 31 States/Agencies/ Organisations and have received excellent gradings.

INFORMATION, LOGISTICS AND REGISTRATION

Project Appraisal ConsultantsB0/2, Welcomgroup C.G.H.S. Ltd, Plot 6, Sector 3, Dwarka, New Delhi 110078

P:+919868216710, +919818009365, 01145669365, www.project-appraisal.com, www.projectappraisal.in

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TRAINING PROGRAMME ON “PROJECT APPRAISAL, RISK …