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Trailing Behind, Moving Forward
An Educational Priority
High school reform has been on the national radar screen for nearly a decade
Staying in the public eye
♦ No Child Left Behind
♦ Small schools movement
♦ Graduation rates
♦ College and career readiness
♦ Driver of economic growth
♦ Common core
Exploring the Issues
Moving the Needle
As a nation we’ve set ambitious goals that will require major changes in rates of graduation and the quality of a high school education
♦ President Obama
“I ask every American to commit to at least one year or more of
higher education or career training.”
♦ The Administration’s ESEA Blueprint
“Together, we must achieve a new goal, that by 2020, the United
States will once again lead the world in college completion.”
♦ Lumina Foundation’s Big Goal (Goal 2025)
Increase the proportion of Americans with high-quality degrees and credentials to 60 percent by the year 2025
Diplomas Count 2012
Trailing Behind, Moving Forward
The 2012 edition of the report explores the experiences of the American education’s fastest-
growing group: Latino Students
The nation’s educational and economic future may hinge on the ability to meet the needs of this diverse population
But, Latinos lag behind on many indicators of success and face a range of challenges, from economic to cultural
Inside Diplomas Count 2012
Diplomas Count examines the state of schooling for Latino students, the challenges they face, and lessons from schools and districts successfully serving this population
The report's journalism examines
♦ The “Demographic Imperative”
♦ Impact of new immigration laws
♦ Early foundations for success
♦ Transitions to college
♦ Barriers faced by Latinas
♦ Embracing diversity
Also: Profiles of major Latino heritage groups
Research
Highlights Diplomas Count 2012 features original research
and analysis from the EPE Research Center
♦ Graduation Rates • State of the nation
• Trends and gaps
• 50-state results
• 50 largest districts
♦ Focus on Latinos • Detailed graduation patterns
• Districts beating the odds
♦ State Policy • Progress on uniform rates
• What it takes to graduate
Profile of a Population
Demographic and
Educational Imperatives
What’s in Name?
A Note on Terminology
Hispanic or Latino?
♦ No universal agreement within or beyond Latino community
Census Bureau
♦ A person is of Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin if the person’s origin (ancestry) is from Spanish-speaking countries of the Caribbean or Central or South America, or from Spain.
Pew Hispanic Center
♦ Slight preference to identify with countries of origin rather than broad population labels (e.g., Latino, Hispanic)
Our approach:
♦ “Latino” and “Hispanic” used interchangeably
♦ Identify countries of origin/heritage for students and families
Demographic Basics
Hispanics comprise 51 million (16%) of the nation’s 310 million residents
Native American
1% Asian 5%
Hispanic 16%
Black 12%
White 64%
Other, two or more
2%
White 64%
Other, two or more
33%
Race and Ethnicity (residential population)
Racial Identification (among Hispanics)
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
Total Population (by age)
A Young Population
The Hispanic population is significantly younger than the population at large
0.0
%
5.0
%
10.0
%
15.0
%
515
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
Hispanic Population (by age)
median age 37 >
< median age 27
Total Population (by age) Hispanic Population (by age)
Demographic Shift in Progress
By 2050, Hispanics will comprise 30% of the U.S. population
♦ Non-Hispanic Whites will fall below 50% around 2040
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Perc
ent
of popula
tion
-White -Hispanic
-Black -Asian -Two or more -Nat. Am.
The Educational Challenge
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Total Nat. Am. Asian Hispanic Black White
Perc
ent
of gro
up (
ages
25-6
4)
B.A. or more
Some Coll.
H.S. or equiv.
Less than H.S.
Hispanics have the lowest levels of educational attainment of any major racial or ethnic group
♦ Nearly two-thirds of Hispanics have a H.S. education or less
Education and Immigration
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Hispanic (all) Native born Immigrant
Perc
ent
of gro
up (
ages
25-6
4)
B.A. or more
Some Coll.
H.S. or equiv.
Less than H.S.
Hispanics have the lowest levels of educational attainment of any major racial or ethnic group
♦ Nearly two-thirds of Hispanics have a H.S. education or less
Heritage Diversity
Hispanics can trace their heritage to dozens of countries and world regions
♦ But, nearly two-thirds claim Mexican roots
Mexican 65%
Puerto Rican 9%
Cuban 4%
Salvadoran 4%
Dominican 3%
Other 15%
Colombian 1.9% Honduran 1.4 Spaniard 1.4 Ecuadorian 1.3 Peruvian 1.2 Nicaraguan 0.7 Argentinean 0.5 Venezuelan 0.5 Panamanian 0.3 Chilean 0.3 Costa Rican 0.3 Bolivian 0.2 Uruguayan 0.1 Paraguayan <0.1 Other Central Am. 0.1 Other South Am. 0.1 All Other 3.1
Implications for the States
Better meeting the educational needs of Latino students is a critical challenge for the nation as a whole
But
From a policy perspective, the nature of those challenges will vary considerably from state to state, due to differences in
♦ Size of Hispanic population
♦ Heritage, cultural, educational background of a state’s Latino groups
♦ Concentration of recent immigrants (as well as country of origin)
Uneven Population Distribution
School-age Hispanics are concentrated largely in West, Southwest, and Florida
New Immigration to New Regions
Recent immigration has been heaviest in parts of country with historically small Hispanic populations
Latino Students Making Progress
Performance for Latinos on a wide range of educational outcomes has improved over the past few decades
However,
Latino students still fall below the national average on most indicators, and trail well behind their White and Asian peers
NAEP Trendlines Rising
Latinos have seen steady and significant gains since the early 1990s
♦ But scores for Whites have also improved
270
293 White
237
262 Black
246
270 Latino
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
1990 1992 1996 2000 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
NA
EP
Ma
th 8
th G
rad
e (
sca
le s
co
re)
Coursetaking Converges
White-Latino gap in higher-level coursetaking has been cut in half since 1990
32
59 White
26
57 Black
22
55 Latino
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 2005 2009
Perc
ent co
mple
ting m
idle
vel or rigoro
us
curr
iculu
m
Graduation in the
United States
Upward Trend Continues
Updated Graduation Analysis
Diplomas Count 2012 features results for the public high school class of 2009, the most recent year of data available
Data source
♦ Common Core of Data (CCD), U.S. Department of Education
♦ Annual census of public schools and districts
Calculation method
♦ Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI)
♦ Widely reported, independent source of information
Comprehensive data
♦ Consistent rates available from national to local level
Strengths and limitations
Graduation Rate Keeps Climbing
CLASS OF 2009
National graduation rate:
Second consecutive annual increase after several years of decline and stagnation
Analysis shows evidence of widespread improvements over past decade
♦ Nation as a whole
♦ Most states
♦ All major demographic groups
73.4%
The Long View
1870
2.0%
1900
6.4%
1940
50.8%
1969
77.1%
2009
73.4%
1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
SOURCES: Historical data: U.S. Department of Education Contemporary data: EPE Research Center
At 73 percent for the class of 2009, the
nation’s graduation rate is at its highest
point since the late 1970s.
Latinos Driving Gains
Broad-based improvements found for past decade
♦ Strongest gains for Latino and Black students
All Students 73.4
American Indian 53.1
Asian 80.5
Hispanic 63.0
Black 58.7
White 78.8
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Gra
du
ati
on
-ra
te p
erc
en
tag
e
1.1 Million Dropouts
1.1 million in context
● 1.1 million nongraduates each year
● 6,000 students lost every school day
● 1 student disappears every 29 seconds
4.0 Million 9th Graders in 2008-09
2.9 Million Graduates in 2012
1.1 Million Nongraduates in 2012
State-by-State
State graduation rates vary tremendously around the national average of 73.4%
Top states (80% or higher)
♦ New Jersey (1st)
♦ North Dakota
♦ Wisconsin
♦ Minnesota
♦ Iowa
♦ Pennsylvania
Bottom states (60% or lower)
♦ New Mexico
♦ Nevada
♦ District of Columbia (51st)
52.4
59.2
59.4
61.7
62.2
62.7
64.0
67.9
68.0
68.1
69.2
69.2
69.3
69.5
70.4
70.5
70.6
71.2
71.3
71.5
71.5
72.1
72.3
72.3
73.1
73.6
73.9
74.1
75.3
75.8
75.8
76.0
76.0
76.4
76.4
76.6
77.4
77.4
77.9
78.4
78.4
78.4
79.1
79.1
79.3
80.5
80.5
82.6
83.8
85.9
87.4
73.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
District of ColumbiaNevada
New MexicoSouth Carolina
MississippiGeorgia
LouisianaDelaware
North CarolinaWashington
HawaiiAlabama
AlaskaSouth Dakota
FloridaKentuckyArkansas
IllinoisCalifornia
TexasWest Virginia
IdahoArizona
MaineOregon
OklahomaWyomingMichigan
Rhode IslandIndiana
TennesseeConnecticut
VirginiaColorado
OhioNebraskaVermontMontanaMaryland
UtahKansas
New YorkNew HampshireMassachusetts
MissouriPennsylvania
IowaMinnesotaWisconsin
North DakotaNew Jersey
National Average
Graduation-rate percentage (class of 2008)
Focus on
Latinos
Minorities, Males Most At-Risk
Graduation rates are well below the national average for:
♦ Racial and ethnic minorities
♦ Male students
♦ Males from historically underserved groups
73.4
63.0 58.7
53.1
69.6
58.1
51.9 49.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Latinos Overrepresented
Hispanics comprise 27% of the nation’s 1.1 million nongraduates but only 21% of the student population
Native American
2%
Asian 3%
Hispanic 27%
Black 27%
White 41%
Percent of nongraduates (by group)
A Concentrated Crisis
310,000 Hispanic Dropouts
District Context
California and Texas product half the nation’s Latino dropouts
Just 25 districts account for 37% of dropouts
But …
Schools, districts, and communities across the nation are beating the odds
A special analysis for Diplomas Count identifies 38 school systems that are exceeding expectations for Latino graduation
♦ Lompoc Unified, Calif.
♦ Ceres Unified, Calif.
♦ Merced Union, Calif.
♦ Yuma Union, Ariz.
♦ Providence, R.I.
♦ and Others
The State
of State Policy
The 2012 Policy Survey
Each year, the EPE Research Center surveys the 50 states and District of Columbia about their policies in a wide range of areas
Meticulous administration and vetting of surveys
Research Center survey and outside sources provide information about:
♦ Defining college and work readiness
♦ Coursetaking requirements for a diploma
♦ High school completion credentials
♦ High school exit exams
♦ Implementation of federal accountability for graduation rates
Defining College Readiness
Currently, 37 states define what it means to be ready for college
♦ Increase from 11 in 2007
♦ Five additional states have definition in progress
11
15
20 23
33
37
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Fewer Completion Options?
States have offered a variety of routes to high school completion as well as a range of credentials for those exceeding and falling short of standard requirements
Class of 2012
♦ 23 states offer advanced diploma or recognition
♦ 26 states offer alternative credential
♦ 18 states offer ONLY a standard diploma
Analysis suggests states may be reducing the number of credentials offered to high school completers
♦ For class of 2011, 13 states offered only standard diploma
What it Takes to Graduate
Requirements for the Class of 2012
EPE Research Center review of other state policies shows relatively little change from prior year
Coursetaking for diploma
♦ 21 credits in average state
High school exit exams
♦ 24 states with exit exam for Class of 2012
♦ All but 3 of those states have an alternative route or appeals process
A Common Formula
Online Resources
From
Education Week and the EPE Research Center
Diplomas Count 2012
Full report plus Web-only features
♦ www.edweek.org/go/dc12
Graduation Briefs for States and Nation ♦ www.edweek.org/go/dc12/sgb
Education Counts ♦ www.edcounts.org
EdWeek Maps
♦ maps.edweek.org
With support from the Carnegie
Corporation of New York and the
Charles Stewart Mott Foundation
Contact the EPE Research Center
Christopher B. Swanson
Vice President, Editorial Projects in Education by email: [email protected]
Sterling C. Lloyd by phone: 301-280-3100
Senior Research Associate, EPE Research Center
Trailing Behind, Moving Forward