Tragedy in the making ? Michael E. DeGolyer Director, Hong Kong
Transition Project Professor of Government & International
Studies 9 Dec 2009/9 Jan 2010 Slide 2 In 2003 over half a million
people demonstrated There was no violence, though ministers cars
were surrounded and prevented from leaving Slide 3 2003 Demands:
Slide 4 2003 Stop Article 23 legislationStop Article 23 legislation
Protect freedoms, especially of the pressProtect freedoms,
especially of the press Hold incompetent ministers accountable:
Dismiss themHold incompetent ministers accountable: Dismiss them
Slide 5 2003 Resistance led by academics (Article 23 Concern Group)
and NGOsResistance led by academics (Article 23 Concern Group) and
NGOs Reputations for community mindedness and idealismReputations
for community mindedness and idealism Concern for Hong Kongs
prosperity and stability apparentConcern for Hong Kongs prosperity
and stability apparent Democrats seens as positive force even
though critical and calling for protestsDemocrats seens as positive
force even though critical and calling for protests Slide 6 3 key
contexts 1.SARS surprise from mainland censoring made freedom of
the press literally a life or death freedom 2.Economic collapse of
March-May made stakes clear: personal & family survival
depended on government competence & freedom of information
3.Belief that Tung Chee-hwa was incompetent. HE was Hong Kongs
governance problem Slide 7 3 key differences 1.Government-business
collusion not an issue 2.Personal business of FS was an issue. (car
purchase before tax increase) Unfairness not seen as a system
issue. 3.Personal view of Sec of Security was an issue. (Democracy
produced Hitler) Slide 8 Chief Executives choice of ministers seen
as main problem, not the system. Change the CE, problems solved
Slide 9 2003 effects Massive turnout, no violenceMassive turnout,
no violence Academics and NGOs seen as moderates and trust in them
highAcademics and NGOs seen as moderates and trust in them high
Government withdrew Article 23 legislationGovernment withdrew
Article 23 legislation Ministers resigned, Tung retreatsMinisters
resigned, Tung retreats Slide 10 2003 effects Academics organize a
new party (Civic Party)Academics organize a new party (Civic Party)
Democrats triumph in 2003 District Council elections and 2004 Legco
electionsDemocrats triumph in 2003 District Council elections and
2004 Legco elections Tung resigns (2005), replaced by civil service
veteranTung resigns (2005), replaced by civil service veteran Slide
11 2005-2008 Government support went up considerably from March
2005Government support went up considerably from March 2005
Government submitted a 2005 reform plan that a near majority
supported, after the factGovernment submitted a 2005 reform plan
that a near majority supported, after the fact Democrats got blamed
for obstruction when vetoedDemocrats got blamed for obstruction
when vetoed Democrats ran candidate for CE in 2007. Obstruction and
negative reputation from reform veto reduced, but not
eliminated.Democrats ran candidate for CE in 2007. Obstruction and
negative reputation from reform veto reduced, but not eliminated.
Slide 12 2008 Government was on track to reduce democratic seats
from 26 to 21-22 in 2008 Legco election... until
business-government collusion issue exploded with post-retirement
hiring of ex-housing director by developerGovernment was on track
to reduce democratic seats from 26 to 21-22 in 2008 Legco
election... until business-government collusion issue exploded with
post-retirement hiring of ex-housing director by developer 2008
Legco election, Democrats cut to 23 seats from 26, despite
government bungle, poor DAB campaign2008 Legco election, Democrats
cut to 23 seats from 26, despite government bungle, poor DAB
campaign New, radical populist party rises (LSD) on back of wealth
gap, government-business collusionNew, radical populist party rises
(LSD) on back of wealth gap, government-business collusion Slide 13
Situation now Public now thinks government in pocket of big
businessPublic now thinks government in pocket of big business
Public now thinks Hong Kong governance problem not a person, but a
systemPublic now thinks Hong Kong governance problem not a person,
but a system Growing frustration of lower income groups (before,
lower income groups more supportive of government).Growing
frustration of lower income groups (before, lower income groups
more supportive of government). Slide 14 Situation now More
students in lower income groups instead of oldstersMore students in
lower income groups instead of oldsters Students becoming
radicalizedStudents becoming radicalized LSD leading breakdown in
social restraints by throwing objects at CELSD leading breakdown in
social restraints by throwing objects at CE LSD insists
participating in Legco and other government processes is futileLSD
insists participating in Legco and other government processes is
futile Slide 15 Scenario 2010-2011 Civic Party legitimizes LSD
position on futility of participation in Legco by joining
resignation gambitCivic Party legitimizes LSD position on futility
of participation in Legco by joining resignation gambit Loss of 2-4
seats in by-election. Low turnout delegitimizes results. Legco as
representative and check on CE and government damagedLoss of 2-4
seats in by-election. Low turnout delegitimizes results. Legco as
representative and check on CE and government damaged Restraints on
LSD now removed. Must lead movement and stay in public view, so
radicalizes further. Attacks government as corrupt and owned by
business. Attacks gain credibilityRestraints on LSD now removed.
Must lead movement and stay in public view, so radicalizes further.
Attacks government as corrupt and owned by business. Attacks gain
credibility Slide 16 Scenario 2010-2011 Government passes reform
plan that makes 2012 elections a farce according to LSD. Civic
Party breaks up or becomes like Citizens Party (ineffective,
leaderless and soon, gone)Government passes reform plan that makes
2012 elections a farce according to LSD. Civic Party breaks up or
becomes like Citizens Party (ineffective, leaderless and soon,
gone) Democratic Party damaged by distrust among CP supporters (did
DP members really do their best to help in the by-election?). Loses
radicals to LSD.Democratic Party damaged by distrust among CP
supporters (did DP members really do their best to help in the
by-election?). Loses radicals to LSD. Many moderate democrats
radicalized or demoralizedMany moderate democrats radicalized or
demoralized Remaining moderate democrats have no one to vote for,
no leaders, no organization.Remaining moderate democrats have no
one to vote for, no leaders, no organization. Slide 17 Spiral to
tragedy Bad economy reduces opportunity for youth and studentsBad
economy reduces opportunity for youth and students Mainlanders
perceived to crowd out Hong Kong students from university,
jobsMainlanders perceived to crowd out Hong Kong students from
university, jobs Government discredited in terms of competence or
legitimacyGovernment discredited in terms of competence or
legitimacy Government becomes more arrogant and out of touch with
only shattered, ineffectual democrats left, unable to stop
governmentGovernment becomes more arrogant and out of touch with
only shattered, ineffectual democrats left, unable to stop
government Slide 18 Spiral to tragedy Either no reform, or current
reform leaving FCs untouched and DCs with appointees and DC members
in Legco elected by method ensuring no democrats in seatsEither no
reform, or current reform leaving FCs untouched and DCs with
appointees and DC members in Legco elected by method ensuring no
democrats in seats Government further delegitimizedGovernment
further delegitimized LSD demonstrates and attacks government
continually, but increasingly seen as ineffectual or just
campaigning for 2012 election (self- interested)LSD demonstrates
and attacks government continually, but increasingly seen as
ineffectual or just campaigning for 2012 election (self-
interested) Slide 19 Spiral to Tragedy Students denounce LSD as
useless and only interested in votes in 2012 electionStudents
denounce LSD as useless and only interested in votes in 2012
election Frustration builds, direct action demands riseFrustration
builds, direct action demands rise Economic downturn and/or wealth
gap increasesEconomic downturn and/or wealth gap increases Job
opportunities for students constrictJob opportunities for students
constrict Alienation and sense of hopelessness buildsAlienation and
sense of hopelessness builds Slide 20 Spiral to Tragedy Violence
begins late 2010 or 2011Violence begins late 2010 or 2011 Attacks
on rich, on luxury cars, luxury shops first, then escalates to
attacks on government officials, government buildingsAttacks on
rich, on luxury cars, luxury shops first, then escalates to attacks
on government officials, government buildings Government cracks
down, populace demonstrates, violence flares, police
respondGovernment cracks down, populace demonstrates, violence
flares, police respond Slide 21 Repercussions Democrats discredited
as equivalent to violent, ideological 1960s leftistsDemocrats
discredited as equivalent to violent, ideological 1960s leftists
Democrats discredited. Not having Hong Kongs best interest at
heartDemocrats discredited. Not having Hong Kongs best interest at
heart Moderates turn to whoever offers to restore order and
increase legitimacy of governmentModerates turn to whoever offers
to restore order and increase legitimacy of government Slide 22
Repercussions Either Henry Tang as CE in 2012 (exacerbating
delegitimization of government and belief in corrupt big business
domination) Possibility of violence increasesEither Henry Tang as
CE in 2012 (exacerbating delegitimization of government and belief
in corrupt big business domination) Possibility of violence
increases Or CY Leung or Regina Ip elected as CE in 2012 who leads
reform of corporate voting and restores belief in legitimacy of
government while making democrats look like violence prone
idealogues who cannot be trusted with Hong Kongs future.Or CY Leung
or Regina Ip elected as CE in 2012 who leads reform of corporate
voting and restores belief in legitimacy of government while making
democrats look like violence prone idealogues who cannot be trusted
with Hong Kongs future. Pan-democratic movement shattered.
Democratic parties become mere handful in LegcoPan-democratic
movement shattered. Democratic parties become mere handful in Legco
Slide 23 Slide 24 Can Tragedy be avoided? Slide 25 Allies &
pressures LP and many businesses (Bus & Professional
Federation) support end of corporate votingLP and many businesses
(Bus & Professional Federation) support end of corporate voting
DAB supports end of corporate votingDAB supports end of corporate
voting Henry Tang has conceeded principle of expanding FC franchise
with his everyone with two votes someday remark. Challenge to prove
government sincerity by ending corporate voting in 2012Henry Tang
has conceeded principle of expanding FC franchise with his everyone
with two votes someday remark. Challenge to prove government
sincerity by ending corporate voting in 2012 Slide 26 Allies &
pressures Isolate big business, non-competitive FC seats by
challenging them to defend: Non-competition and corporate votes
where some directors get say and others do not (unfairness)Isolate
big business, non-competitive FC seats by challenging them to
defend: Non-competition and corporate votes where some directors
get say and others do not (unfairness) Government-business
collusion and corrupt dealsGovernment-business collusion and
corrupt deals Hammer away at growing likelihood of unrest if reform
not madeHammer away at growing likelihood of unrest if reform not
made LET the LSD resign and refer to them as destructive of
legitimacy and good order, also as betrayers of pan- democrats
ability to check governmentLET the LSD resign and refer to them as
destructive of legitimacy and good order, also as betrayers of pan-
democrats ability to check government Slide 27 Allies &
Pressures Expand franchise, widen representation of FCsExpand
franchise, widen representation of FCs Research proves this
INCREASES support for abolition of FCsResearch proves this
INCREASES support for abolition of FCs Push for everyone to have a
second vote in FCs OR for FCs to be abolished OR consolidated to
abolitionPush for everyone to have a second vote in FCs OR for FCs
to be abolished OR consolidated to abolition Corporates must
believe they will either hand over power to their employees in the
FC seats, or they must compete like other corporates abroad in the
GC seats by funding pro-business parties and candidates.
Alternative is violence, weak government, alienated youthCorporates
must believe they will either hand over power to their employees in
the FC seats, or they must compete like other corporates abroad in
the GC seats by funding pro-business parties and candidates.
Alternative is violence, weak government, alienated youth Slide 28
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