Traffic Modelling Report September 2012 - Transport for NSW

Appendix I Traffic Modelling Report September 2012

WARNERVALE TOWN CENTRE LINK PROJECT Traffic Modelling Report

Prepared for

ROADS AND MARITIME SERVICES (RMS)

September 2012

Warnervale Station

Warnervale Town Centre

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Hyder Consulting Pty Ltd ABN 76 104 485 289 Level 5, 141 Walker Street Locked Bag 6503 North Sydney NSW 2060 Australia Tel: +61 2 8907 9000 Fax: +61 2 8907 9001 www.hyderconsulting.com

ROADS AND MARITIME SERVICES (RMS)

WARNERVALE TOWN CENTRE LINK PROJECT Traffic Modelling Report

Author Mansee L

Checker Mukit R

Approver Mukit R

Report No F0001-AA005174-RevA

Date July 2012

This report has been prepared for Roads and Maritime Services in accordance with the terms and conditions of appointment for Link Project dated July 2012 . Hyder Consulting Pty Ltd (ABN 76 104 485 289) cannot accept any responsibility for any use of or reliance on the contents of this report by any third party.

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CONTENTS

1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ....................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Road Network .................................................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Study Objectives ................................................................................................................................ 2 1.4 The Proposal and Access Strategy ................................................................................................... 3 1.5 Approach to Traffic Modelling Investigation ....................................................................................... 4 1.6 Report Structure ................................................................................................................................ 5

2 Existing Traffic Conditions ............................................................................................................. 6 2.1 Travel Pattern .................................................................................................................................... 6 2.2 Public Transport ................................................................................................................................ 7 2.3 Cycling ............................................................................................................................................... 8 2.4 Route Environment ............................................................................................................................ 9 2.5 Speed Environment ........................................................................................................................... 9 2.6 Traffic Data ...................................................................................................................................... 10 2.7 Peak Hour Traffic Volume................................................................................................................ 13 2.8 Seasonal Variation in Traffic ............................................................................................................ 13 2.9 Existing Network Performance ........................................................................................................ 15

3 Traffic Forecast Models ............................................................................................................... 18 3.1 Modelling Tools ............................................................................................................................... 18 3.2 Future Development and Traffic Generation .................................................................................... 18 3.3 Future Network Change................................................................................................................... 22 3.4 Micro Simulation Model (Paramics) ................................................................................................. 23

4 Modelling Results ........................................................................................................................ 26 4.1 Future Traffic Forecasts................................................................................................................... 26 4.2 Future Intersection Performance ..................................................................................................... 27

5 Summary of Findings ................................................................................................................... 32 6 Table of Compliance for Project Proposal System (PPS) ........................................................... 33

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FIGURES Figure 1-1 The ‘Link Project’ study area in context of the wider network ............................................................ 2

Figure 1-2 Proposed ‘Link Project’ and intersection upgrade .............................................................................. 3

Figure 2-1 Travel zones representing the study area .......................................................................................... 6

Figure 2-2 Bus routes servicing the study area ................................................................................................... 8

Figure 2-3 Existing cycling route within the study area ....................................................................................... 8

Figure 2-4 Designated B-Double routes in the study area .................................................................................. 9

Figure 2-5 Posted speed limits in the study area .............................................................................................. 10

Figure 2-6 Daily traffic profile on Sparks Road ................................................................................................. 12

Figure 2-7 Hourly traffic profile for critical day (Friday) on Sparks Road ........................................................... 12

Figure 2-8 RMS’s Traffic Count Stations .......................................................................................................... 14

Figure 2-9 Weekly variation of traffic volumes .................................................................................................. 14

Figure 3-1 Proposed land use in and around Link Project corridor ................................................................... 20

Figure 3-2 Proposed access to the Warnervale Town Centre ......................................................................... 21

Figure 3-3 Proposed regional level network upgrades in context of the Link Project ....................................... 22

Figure 3-4 Paramics model travel zone system ................................................................................................ 24

Figure 4-1 Proposed intersection upgrade in 2021 ........................................................................................... 28

Figure 4-2 Proposed intersection upgrade in year 2031 ................................................................................... 30

Figure 4-3 Existing and proposed new bus stop in the study area .................................................................... 31

TABLES Figure 1-1 The ‘Link Project’ study area in context of the wider network ............................................................ 2

Figure 1-2 Proposed ‘Link Project’ and intersection upgrade .............................................................................. 3

Figure 2-1 Travel zones representing the study area .......................................................................................... 6

Figure 2-2 Bus routes servicing the study area ................................................................................................... 8

Figure 2-3 Existing cycling route within the study area ....................................................................................... 8

Figure 2-4 Designated B-Double routes in the study area .................................................................................. 9

Figure 2-5 Posted speed limits in the study area .............................................................................................. 10

Figure 2-6 Daily traffic profile on Sparks Road ................................................................................................. 12

Figure 2-7 Hourly traffic profile for critical day (Friday) on Sparks Road ........................................................... 12

Figure 2-8 RMS’s Traffic Count Stations .......................................................................................................... 14

Figure 2-9 Weekly variation of traffic volumes .................................................................................................. 14

Figure 3-1 Proposed land use in and around Link Project corridor ................................................................... 20

Figure 3-2 Proposed access to the Warnervale Town Centre ......................................................................... 21

Figure 3-3 Proposed regional level network upgrades in context of the Link Project ....................................... 22

Figure 3-4 Paramics model travel zone system ................................................................................................ 24

Figure 4-1 Proposed intersection upgrade in 2021 ........................................................................................... 28

Figure 4-2 Proposed intersection upgrade in year 2031 ................................................................................... 30

Figure 4-3 Existing and proposed new bus stop in the study area .................................................................... 31

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APPENDICES Appendix A

Appendix B

Appendix C

Appendix D

Appendix E

Appendix F

RMS Concept Plan for 4 lane Upgrade of Link Project corridor

2011 Turning Volumes & SIDRA Results

Paramics Model Calibration

Future Modelling results ( Turning Volumes, SIDRA Results)

RMS’s response to Traffic Modelling assumptions

Proposed Future Land Use

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1 Introduction 1.1 Background

The Roads and Maritime Services (RMS) requires a detailed traffic modelling of the planned upgrading of the 1.4 kilometre section of Sparks Road between Rail crossing Bridge and Hiawatha Road (‘Link Project’) to ensure that it will cater for future regional and local traffic growth. The RMS has prepared a draft strategic concept design of the proposed four lane upgrade of Sparks Road from Minnesota Road through the Warnervale Township intersection and tapering back to two lanes in the vicinity of Virginia Road. The proposed Warnervale Township is located north of Sparks Road between Rail line and Hiawatha Road. In Link project, the key access and egress point to Warnervale Township will be made via a new traffic signal controlled intersection with Sparks Road/ Township access road.

Hyder previously undertook a comprehensive traffic modelling study for the 7 kilometre section of Sparks Road connecting Kanwal to Warnervale. The study result was documented in Spark Road Upgrade Traffic Modelling Study, February 2012 (Referred to as Sparks Road Study in this report). Hyder also undertook detailed traffic modelling for the Sparks Road / Minnesota Road intersection. That modelling result was documented in Sparks Road / Minnesota Road Intersection Traffic Modelling Study, May 2012. (Referred to as Minnesota Study in this report)

The scope of Hyder’s study is to assess the Link Project performance from traffic and network operation perspective.

1.2 Road Network Figure 1-1 shows broader study area network in the context of Link Project.

The Central Coast Regional Strategy targets that the population of Central Coast will grow by additional 100,000 residents and 45,000 jobs by 2031. Within the strategy the Warnervale Town Centre (WTC) has been identified as a major future growth centre within the Wyong Shire.

The WTC is located 10 km north of Wyong in the Wyong Local Government Area. It straddles the northern regional rail corridor and is approximately 1 km east of the Wyong Employment Zone. It is bound by Hiawatha Road, Hakone Road, Sparks Road and Bruce Crescent. The WTC is approximately119 hectares. The proposed Warnervale Township is expected to house 5,000 people in 1,700 dwellings and permanent retail employment in the new township is expected to be approximately 1,260 people.

Pressure will continue to build on Sparks Road to cater for the projected traffic growth generated by WTC and also other key developments including Precinct 7A, Wyong Employment Zone, Bruce Crescent, Retirement Village and Precinct 14. The rate of release of these developments will have significant impact on the timing of Sparks Road upgrade. Additional road network capacity will be needed to cater for regional and development traffic growth but primarily for new development traffic.

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Figure 1-1 The ‘Link Project’ study area in context of the wider network

1.3 Study Objectives The purpose of the traffic modelling investigation is to provide a detailed assessment of the planned upgrading of the Link Project. A road based micro-simulation traffic model was developed for the study area. For micro-simulation model, Hyder used Paramics software. The Paramics model was built upon and integrated with recently updated Central Coast Regional Strategic model (operates in TransCAD). For assessing individual intersection capacity, Hyder used SIDRA software. The SIDRA modelling results are aimed to assist RMS with refinement of the draft Link Road concept design.

The specific purpose of this traffic modelling assessment is to:

Prepare traffic forecasts on the Link Project for future years 2021 and 2031;

Determine level of service of the proposed Link Project and associated key intersections;

Determine intersections level of service, degree of saturation, queue length by approach, optimum signs and signal times and the geometric layout constraints;

Determine the ultimate intersection footprint required to cater for the expected traffic growth as a result of future developments;

Estimate road user parameters from the Paramics model including vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT), vehicle hours travelled (VHT), number of stop required for road use cost-benefit assessment (RUCBA).; and

Prepare a traffic report required for Project Proposal System (PPS) of Link Project.

Study Area


1.4 The Proposal and Access Strategy The Link Project proposal involves upgrading of a 1.4 kilometre section of Sparks Road between the Rail crossing Bridge and Hiawatha Road. It is proposed that Sparks Road will be upgraded to four lanes between Virginia Road and Minnesota Road. Figure 1-2 shows a schematic diagram of proposed access and intersections along the Link Project.

Intersection upgrades are planned to be provided at following locations:

Virginia Road / Sparks Road intersection;

New Warnervale Township access / Sparks Road intersection; and

Minnesota Road / Sparks Road intersection.

Source: RMS Figure 1-2 Proposed ‘Link Project’ and intersection upgrade



1.5 Approach to Traffic Modelling Investigation Hyder has developed a comprehensive study approach specifically to achieve key study objectives. It involves identifying the data needs, development of a road based traffic model, calibration of traffic model and a traffic assessment.

A consultation process engaging the RMS constitutes an important element of this study. Over the course of this project, the following technical note was prepared and submitted to RMS for early review, comments and agreement.

Technical Note 1, Traffic Modelling Assumptions.

The key aspects of Hyder’s modelling approach include:

Updated traffic model specifically for the Link Project as per assumptions. Traffic models were developed/augmented using a three-level methodology – a Central Coast Strategic Traffic Model (CCTM, using TransCAD software), a micro-simulation network model (using Paramics software) and a series of intersection models (using SIDRA software).

Build a micro intersection model (SIDRA) both, weekday AM and PM peak hour. For base year intersection SIDRA modelling, Hyder used turning movement counts for year 2011. The future years (2021 and 2031) turning volumes were estimated using CCTM strategic traffic model. The SIDRA model was used to predict level of service (LoS) of key intersections. The SIDRA modelling result was used to refine intersection footprint for Link Project. This includes identifying improvements to intersection configurations that produce the best arrangement for Link Project. SIDRA modelling was used to report intersection performance including:

Level of service;

Degree of saturation;

Queue length by approach;

Optimum signs and signal times; and

Geometric layout constraints.

Build a micro-simulation model (Paramics) for Link Project and associated intersections. The demand feeding into the locally calibrated micro-simulation models was underpinned by CCTM strategic demand modelling. For this study, Hyder cordoned the Paramics model that was developed for Spark Road Upgrade Traffic Modelling Study. The Paramics model was also validated for 2011 weekday AM and PM peak traffic conditions. Future years Paramics modelling was undertaken for four lane Sparks Road upgrade option. Section 3.4 documents detailed update of Paramics modelling undertaken for this study.


1.6 Report Structure This report has been organized into the following two volumes:

Volume 1 Traffic Modelling Report and

Volume 2 Appendices.

Volume 1 – Traffic Modelling Report Volume 1 contains the Traffic Modelling report documenting the key modelling outcomes and results. It is organised in the following sections:

Section 1 provides an overview of the project, background information, study objectives, an upper level approach to traffic investigation.

Section 2 provides the context of existing traffic conditions of Sparks Road within which the assessment has taken place. This section provides an overview of existing traffic volumes and travel patterns in the study area.

Section 3 documents an overview of traffic models. Its purpose, model network assumptions (as agreed with RMS), future land use and trip generation analysis.

Section 4 provides modelling results documenting level of service of Link Project and associated key intersections

Section 5 summarises the key results and findings

Section 6 provides a Table of Compliance required for the Project Proposal System (PPS).

Volume 2 – Appendices Detailed Paramics Calibration (as per RMS guidelines), SIDRA results, tuning volumes and RMS’s and responses to modelling assumptions are included in Volume 2 as appendices to Volume 1. The appendices are as follows:

Appendix A Draft Concept Design of the Link Project

Appendix B Existing Turning Volumes & SIDRA Results

Appendix C Future Year Turning Volumes & SIDRA Results

Appendix D Paramics Model Calibration as per RMS Guidelines

Appendix E RMS’s Response to Traffic Modelling Assumptions

Appendix F Proposed Future Land Use



2 Existing Traffic Conditions 2.1 Travel Pattern

2.1.1 Mode of Travel The Bureau of Transport Statistics (BTS) provided journey to work (JTW) data for the entire Central Coast. This data provides a comprehensive sample of commuter travel, which was collected during the 2006 Census. Work trip origin and destinations are coded to the 2006 travel zones. Table 2-1 shows work trips by mode of travel reported for the Link Project study area. For JTW reporting, the Link project study area was determined by the travel zone boundaries. Three travel zones, TZ 3160, TZ 3164 and TZ 3165, represent the study area as shown in Figure 2-1.

Source: BTS, Consultant analysis

Figure 2-1 Travel zones representing the study area


Table 2-1 Travel to work mode share for the study area

Travel Mode Study Area as Home

(Outbound trips)

Study Area as Home

(Outbound trips) %

Study Area as Workplace

(Inbound trips)

Study Area as Workplace

(Inbound trips)%

Car Driver 1,965 66.4% 848 65.3%

Car Passenger 194 6.6% 43 3.3%

Public Transport 190 6.4% 15 1.2%

Other (Walking, Cycle, etc.)

54 1.8% 33 2.5%

Worked at home/ Did not travel/ Not stated

557 18.8% 360 27.7%

Total 2,960 100% 1,299 100%

Source: JTW 2006, BTS

In 2006, about 3,000 people travelled from the study area to work. About 19 per cent of people did not travel to work or worked from home on census day. The Census data showed that around 73% of work trips from the study area were made by private car. A further 8.2% used alternative transport modes. The inbound travel demand to the study area showed lower number of trips but with the similar proportion (about 70%) of trips made by private car. Also, data presented in Table 2-1 showed that about 28 per cent of people who work in the study area are living within the study area’s travel zone boundaries.

From these statistics, it can be seen that private vehicles are the dominant mode of transport to work. This is consistent with travel behaviour for the entire Central Coast, with about 73% of all work trips are being made by car, either as driver or passenger.

2.2 Public Transport Most of bus services within Central Coast are operated by private operators including Busways, Red Bus Services and Coastal Liner Coaches. Figure 2-2 below show bus services in vicinity of the study area. Route 78 operated by Busways services the study area corridor.

There is no direct railway station in the study area; however the Warnervale railway station is located approximately 2km west from Virginia Road/ Spark Road intersection. The station is served by intercity trains to Sydney and Newcastle



Source: NSW Transport, August 2012

Figure 2-2 Bus routes servicing the study area

2.3 Cycling Currently designated off street cycleway is provided on

Sparks Road between Pacific Highway and Minnesota Road;

Mataram Road between Hiawatha Road and Arizona Road;

Warnervale Road between Minnesota Road and Louisiana Road to Sparks Road and Mataram Road through parklands and local streets.

Figure 2-3 shows the location of designated cycle routes.

Source: RMS

Figure 2-3 Existing cycling route within the study area


2.4 Route Environment Sparks Road provides an important east west link between the F3 Freeway and Pacific Highway. Currently, Sparks Road is a two-lane, two way undivided road with designated turning bays at key intersections.

Sparks Road consists of reasonable lane widths, approximately 3.5m wide and variable width sealed shoulders between 1m and 3m wide. The shoulders are also used as on-road bicycle lanes and are marked by bicycle symbols. There is minimal provision of pedestrian facilities at the west of Minnesota Road along the route but a 2m wide footpath is provided to the east of Minnesota Road in the westbound direction.

The section of Sparks Road between Virginia Road and Hiawatha Road is designated a B-Double route for trucks up to 26 m in length as shown in Figure 2-4.

Source: RMS, September 2012

Figure 2-4 Designated B-Double routes in the study area

2.5 Speed Environment In the Study area, the posted speed limit on Sparks Road is 80km/h that changes to 70km/h just past Virginia Road. A 60 km/h posted speed limit applies to Minnesota Road while a posted speed limit of 50km/h applies to Virginia Road as shown in Figure 2-5.



Figure 2-5 Posted speed limits in the study area

2.6 Traffic Data Table 2-2 summaries traffic data collected for the study. The intersection count was conducted in May 2011 for a typical weekday (Tuesday) and a weekend (Saturday) traffic condition. Traffic data on Tuesday was collected for 4 hours morning (6:00 to 10:00 am) and 4 hours afternoon (15:00 to 19:00) peak period. The Saturday survey was conducted for 4 hours between 7:00 and 14:00.

New intersection count was collected for at Minnesota Road / Spark Road on 29 February 2012, for the school peak period for the Sparks Road/Minnesota Road Intersection Study.

Table 2-2 Intersection traffic data surveyed

Intersection Control Type Data type Survey Period

Virginia Road / Sparks Road Priority Turning volumes May 2011

Minnesota Road / Sparks Road

Signal Turning volumes May 2011 and February 2012

Automatic traffic counts (ATC) data were sourced from Wyong Shire Council for the following locations as part of Precinct 7A study. It was conducted for one week from Wednesday 25 March 2009.

Sparks Road, east of Minnesota Road, Hamlyn Terrace


2.6.1 Daily Traffic Volume Table 2-3 and Table 2-4 show daily traffic volume on Sparks Road for an average weekday and weekend. The heavy vehicle number and proportion of total traffic volume is also shown.

The following points are noted from existing traffic data:

In 2009, approximately 18,000 vehicles travelled on Sparks Road (east of Minnesota Road) on an average weekday.

The weekend traffic is approximately 28 % lower than weekday traffic. The average weekend traffic is in the order of 13,000 vehicles per day;

The highest traffic volume was recorded on Friday in the order of 19,000 vehicles per day. The Friday critical day was about 4% higher than average weekday traffic.

About 1,600 heavy vehicles are recorded on Sparks Road in an average weekday. The heavy vehicle proportion is approximately 9% of total traffic.

Table 2-3 Daily traffic volume on Sparks Road, 2009

Road/Location Average Weekday

Average Weekend

Friday (Critical Day

% Traffic Change

Friday vs

Weekday

% Traffic Change

Weekend vs

Weekday

Sparks Road, east of Minnesota Road

17,882 12,824 18,596 3.8% -28.3%

Table 2-4 Heavy Vehicles Traffic Distribution in 2009

Section Average Weekday Daily

LV HV Total HV %

East of Minnesota Road 16,227 1,654 17,882 9%

Figure 2-6 shows the variation of the daily traffic profile from Monday to Sunday on Sparks Road east of Minnesota Rd. The weekday traffic profile (Monday to Friday) is consistent showing a sharp morning and afternoon peak.



Figure 2-6 Daily traffic profile on Sparks Road

Figure 2-7 shows hourly traffic profile for Friday (critical day) in 24 hours period. The AM peak is spread over three hours between 6:00 am and 9:00 am, with traffic building up sharply between 8:00 and 9:00 am when it reaches its peak. The PM peak also spreads over three hours between 15:00 pm and 18:00 pm, with traffic gradually starting to build up between 15:00 pm and 16:00 pm when it reaches its peak. In the morning peak west bound traffic (towards the F3 Freeway) is higher than east bound traffic (towards the Pacific Highway, Kanwal). The reverse pattern is observed in the afternoon peak.

Figure 2-7 Hourly traffic profile for critical day (Friday) on Sparks Road

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M-1: Sparks Rd east of Minnesota Road, Hamlyn Terrace

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday


2.7 Peak Hour Traffic Volume Table 2-5 below summarises morning (8:00 am to 9:00 am) and afternoon peak (4:00 pm to 5:00 pm) hour traffic volumes on Sparks Road in 2011.

Table 2-5 Peak hour traffic volumes in the study area (on Sparks Road)

Location AM Peak PM Peak

EB WB Two-way EB WB Two-way

West of Virginia Road 734 970 1,704 918 667 1,585

West of Minnesota Road 964 951 1,645 887 656 1,543

Note: Northbound (NB), Eastbound (EB), Southbound (SB), Westbound (WB); Traffic data in the above table represents one hour traffic

In the study area, the highest two-way traffic volume on Sparks Road was observed on west of Virginia Road. Sparks Road carried about 1,700 and 1,600 vehicles per hour in AM and PM peak periods respectively. The westbound traffic on Sparks Road showed highest peak in the AM peak, in order of 1,000 vehicles per hour.

The eastbound traffic showed highest peak in PM peak, in order of 950 vehicles per hour. The turning volumes for AM and PM Peak hour at surveyed intersections are included in Appendix B.

Austroads guideline suggested that urban arterial roads mid-block capacity can be between 1,000 to 1,200 vehicles per hour per lane. The existing capacity can be increased up to 1,400 vehicles per hour per lane given that key intersections along the Sparks Road have a level of service D or above (see Section 2.9 for intersection level of service results). The existing traffic flow on Sparks Road suggests that current 2 lane 2 way road corridor has a limited reserved capacity. It is expected that future background traffic growth will take up these additional spare capacity on the Sparks Road.

2.8 Seasonal Variation in Traffic Historical traffic data in the vicinity of the study area was obtained from RMS’s Hunter Region Traffic Volume Data for discrete years between 1995 and 2008. Figure 2-8 shows the location of count sites in the vicinity of the study area.

Traffic volume on Doyalson Motorway Road (V05.302), south of the Pacific Highway was extracted from the RMS Traffic Volume Data for Hunter and Northern Regions 2004. This site was chosen to plot weekly traffic variation within the vicinity of the study area.



Figure 2-8 RMS’s Traffic Count Stations

Figure 2-9 Weekly variation of traffic volumes Figure 2-9 shows the weekly variation of traffic volumes for the period of 29 December 2003 to 29 December 2004. The graph indicates that weekly traffic volumes increased from October 2004 to early December by almost 20%, and then decreased from early December to January by almost 15%. From the graph the lowest weekly traffic volume for the year occurred in early January at more than 15% below average. By mid-January the traffic volume was slightly over


the average of 115,000 per week .After maintaining the same rate until late July, the graphs shows a period of lower volumes from mid-July to mid-August (almost 5% below average). Figure 2-9 also shows that weekly traffic volumes in September 2004 were slightly above average.

Figure 2-9 also indicates that lower traffic volumes occurred during April, July and October indicating that autumn (April), winter (July) and spring (October) school holiday periods reduces the traffic volumes in the study area

2.9 Existing Network Performance The Link Project corridor consists of two intersections:

Sparks Road / Virginia Road and

Sparks Road / Minnesota Road.

The Virginia Road / Sparks Road intersection operates as a three way priority and the Minnesota Road Sparks Road intersection operates as a four way signalised intersection.

From the 2011 survey data it was identified that during the school times heavy right turn movement is observed at the east approach of the Minnesota Road / Sparks Road intersection. Recently, in February 2012, this right turn bay was extended to 140 m. Existing layouts of intersections in the study area are shown in Table 2-6



Table 2-6 Existing layouts of intersections in the study area

Intersection Layout

1 Sparks Road / Virginia Road Intersection

Just east of the Railway line this intersection operates as a three way priority with Virginia Road as the minor approach.

2 Sparks Road / Minnesota Road Intersection

It operates as a four way signalised intersection. During the school zone times the right turn bay on east approach does not provide enough capacity for the turning vehicles


These two intersections within the study area were assessed using SIDRA to determine their respective operating performance. Performance of an intersection is measured in accordance with the RMS’ guideline (Guide to Traffic Generating Developments, Issue 2.2, RMS, October 2002).The performance of an intersection is measured by the intersection average delay per vehicle which in turns leads to a “level of service” measure for the intersection. The RMS’s measures are shown in Table 2-7

Table 2-7 Intersections Level of Service assessment criteria (RMS)

Level of Service (LoS)

Average Delay per Vehicle (sec/veh)

Traffic Signals, Roundabout

Give Way & Stop Signs

A <14 Good operation Good operation

B 15 to 28 Good with acceptable delays & spare capacity

Acceptable delays & spare capacity

C 29 to 42 Satisfactory Satisfactory, but accident study required

D 43 to 56 Operating near capacity Near capacity & accident study required

E 57 to 70 At capacity; at signals, incidents will cause excessive delays Roundabouts require other control mode

At capacity, requires other control mode

F >70 Unsatisfactory with excessive queuing

Unsatisfactory with excessive queuing

Table 2-8 below summarises modelling result showing overall intersection performance. From the assessment results, the following points are noted:

Minnesota Road / Sparks Road intersection is currently performing at LoS between C and D. During the AM peak, heavy right turn (294 veh/hr) at east approach is observed. Model forecasts high degree of saturation (0.9) for the westbound right turn movement from Sparks Road to Mary MacKillop Drive (north) indicating that this movement has limited spare capacity available.

Virginia / Sparks intersection currently operate at satisfactory level of service (LoS B).No other capacity issues are observed

Detailed SIDRA modelling results for existing traffic conditions are documented in Appendix B. Table 2-8 intersection performance results for existing conditions (2011)

Intersection Control Type

AM Peak PM Peak

LoS DoS Avg. Delays (sec)

LoS DoS Avg. Delays (sec)

Sparks Road / Virginia Road

Priority B 0.5 15.1 B 0.5 18.3

Sparks Road / Minnesota Road

Traffic Signals

D 0.94 49.4 C 0.92 37.3



3 Traffic Forecast Models 3.1 Modelling Tools

Hyder previously developed traffic model for Sparks Road and associated intersections. For this study, Hyder updated these models specifically for the Link Project corridor.

Traffic models were developed/augmented using a three-level methodology – a Central Coast Strategic Traffic Model (CCTM, using TransCAD software), a micro-simulation network model (using Paramics software, Version 6.7.2) and a series of intersection models (using SIDRA software, Version 5.1.12.2089). The model calibration and validation was undertaken for existing traffic condition in year 2011 for both AM and PM peak period. The calibrated and validated models were then used to predict the level of service of Link Project and associated key intersections for future years 2021 and 2031.

Azalient Paramics plugins will be used to extract the required results from the models where required.

3.2 Future Development and Traffic Generation The future developments expected to have a direct impact on the Link Project and the associated key intersections are as follows:

Warnervale Town Centre ( WTC);

Super GP Clinic; and

Proposed new 124 lots residential subdivision.

During the Sparks Road Study, the WTC development was included in the traffic model and the impact of the Super GP Clinic and proposed new 124 lots Residential subdivision was studied in the Sparks Road / Minnesota Road intersection Traffic Modelling.

Table 3-1 summarises the proposed land use of the above mentioned developments. It is predicted that these developments will generate about 4,100 two way peak hour trips and accommodate about 2,300 dwellings.

Other relevant future developments in the vicinity of Link Project that are included in the model (during the Sparks Road Upgrade Traffic Modelling Study) are as follows:

Precinct 7A;

Wyong Employment Zone (WEZ);

Bruce Crescent ;

The Lakes Anglican Grammar School;

Precinct 14 and

Kanwal Retirement Village;

The above mentioned developments will have a significant impact on Sparks Road corridor. Relevant to Link Project three potential developments were identified i.e. WTC, Super GP Clinic and Proposed new 124 lots residential subdivision. Hyder will retain them in the model. In addition to these, Hyder will also retain potential developments in Precinct 7A, WEZ, Bruce Crescent, The Lakes Anglican Grammar School, Precinct 14 and Kanwal Retirement village.


Table 3-2 summarise the potential yields from proposed future developments within the surrounding areas. Figure 3-1 below shows locations of proposed developments.

Table 3-1 Potential yields form Future developments in the study area

Development Peak Hour Trips ( Two way)

Direct impact to Link Project

Warnervale Town Centre 3804

Super GP Clinic 218

Proposed 124 lot residential subdivision

106

Total 4128

Other Relevant Developments

Precinct 7a 3443

WEZ 2045

Bruce Crescent 1322

Precinct 14 435

Retirement Village 150

Total 7395

The following points are noted from data shown in Table 3-9:

Relevant to the Link Project, WTC, Super GP Clinic and the proposed new 124 lots residential subdivision are the key developments that would have direct impact on Link Project. The WTC, Super Clinic and proposed new 124 lots residential subdivision were expected to generate in order of 4,100 vehicles trips in one peak hour.

The traffic on the Sparks Road would be higher for cumulative growth including other developments within the Sparks Road corridor. The major developments which would have impact on the Sparks Road corridor include Precinct 7A and WEZ, generating in order of 5400 vehicle trips in one peak hour.

When considering the wider network impact, the total traffic generation is forecast in order of 12,000 vehicle trips in one peak hour.

Table 3-2 below summarises the amount of development completion included in traffic model by year 2021 and 2031. In general, it is assumed that WTC will be 50% developed and occupied by 2021. In line with WTC all other future development will also be developed up to 50% and occupied by 2021. For modelling purpose, it is assumed that all developments will be fully completed and occupied by 2031.



Table 3-2 Development assumptions adopted in this study

Development % Complete by 2021 % Complete by 2031

WTC 50% 100%

Super GP Clinic 100% 100%

Proposed 124 lot residential subdivision

100% 100%

Other relevant developments 50% 100%

Source: RMS’s assumption

Note: The location of zones P (for Super Clinic) and O (for new 124 lots residential subdivision) are indicative only.

Figure 3-1 Proposed land use in and around Link Project corridor


3.2.1 Warnervale Town Centre Access The Warnervale Town Centre (WTC) is bounded by Hakone Road to the North, Hiawatha Road to the east, Sparks Road to the south and extends just to the west of the Great Northern Railway Line.

Figure 3-2 below shows the proposed location of access points to the WTC for the year 2021 and 2031.

It is assumed that in year 2021 majority of the traffic will use the access via the Sparks Road (Access 1) and rest of the traffic will use Mataram Road extension (Access 3) and Mary MacKillop Road extension (Access 2). For year 2031, additional accesses are proposed via Hakone Road (Access 4).

Figure 3-2 Proposed access to the Warnervale Town Centre



3.3 Future Network Change Future traffic conditions in and around the study area will be influenced by a combination of background traffic growth, additional traffic generated by proposed developments and planned network changes at regional and local levels. The future base case network changes in CCTM model are sourced from RMS work program.

At regional level, the following proposed network upgrade would impact future traffic volumes on Sparks Road:

F3 Freeway from Kariong to Doyalson (6 lanes, 3/3, assumed to be completed by 2021) and

Pacific Highway from Tuggerah to Doyalson link Road (4 lanes, 2/2, assumed to be completed by 2031).

At the local study area level, network upgrade includes “Link Project” which involves:

Sparks Road four lane upgrade (4 lanes, 2/2, assumed to be completed by 2021) for approximately 1.4 km between Virginia Road and Minnesota Road;

New intersection between Sparks Road and Warnervale Township (3 way, assumed to be completed by 2021; and 4 way by 2031) and

Intersection upgrade at Minnesota Road (dual right turn on east approach with two exit short lanes on north approach, assumed to be completed by 2021).

Virginia Road operating as Left-in-Left-out for future years (2021 and 2031).

Figure 3-3 below shows the proposed network upgrade at regional level that will have some impact on the Link Project.

Figure 3-3 Proposed regional level network upgrades in context of the Link Project


3.4 Micro Simulation Model (Paramics) For this study, Hyder cordoned the Paramics model that was developed for the Sparks Road Modelling Study. Hyder refined the Paramics model for the Link Project Study area. In general, the Sparks Road Paramics model is a linear network model. Future years Paramics modelling was undertaken for Link Project upgrades which include the following:

Sparks Road upgraded to 4 lanes between Virginia Road and Minnesota Road

Warnervale town centre access at Sparks Road operating as a three way signal in year 2021 and a 4 way signal in year 2031.

The ultimate footprint of the Warnervale town centre / Sparks Road intersection was determined from SIDRA and these were then coded into Paramics.

Paramics modelling results, including the vehicle kilometres travelled, vehicle hours travelled and the number of stops; will feed into the Benefit cost assessment to be carried out by RMS for the project Proposal System of Link Road Project.

3.4.1 Demand The demand feeding into the locally calibrated micro-simulation models was underpinned by CCTM strategic demand modelling. The initial demand matrix was estimated from CCTM using a sub-area technique. Further travel zone and network refinements were undertaken for the study area. The demand matrix was calibrated to the RMS’s standards using the 2011 traffic counts data.

The demand matrix was estimated separately for two vehicle types:

Cars/light vehicles

Rigid and articulated heavy vehicles

The proportion of heavy vehicles has been taken directly from classified traffic surveys.

Figure 3-4 shows Paramics model road network and travel zone system for the ultimate future year (2031).

It should be noted that Zone 6 and zone 7 load the Warnervale town centre development traffic into the model. In the scenarios assessed (Section 3.4.2), where there is no WTC development traffic, the demand coming out and going into these two zones will be zero. The zones used for each of the scenarios is explained in the section below (3.4.2)



Figure 3-4 Paramics model travel zone system

3.4.2 Scenarios Table 3-3 details all scenarios assessed in Paramics for BCR purposes. It also outlines the network properties and the demand matrix used for each of the modelled scenarios

Link Project upgrades refer to the following network changes:

Sparks Road upgraded to 4 lanes ( 2 lanes in each direction)

Inclusion of Warnervale township access / Sparks Road intersection (3 way in 2021 & 4 way in 2031).In the model the fourth leg of this new intersection for year 2031 is represented by zone 7.

Virginia Road / Sparks Road intersection operating as Left-in-Left-out (for both 2021 and 2031 years).


Table 3-3 Scenarios modelled in Paramics

Scenario Network Traffic Demand

2011 Existing 2 lane Sparks Road (as per existing network )

2011 survey counts

2011 with Link Project 4 lane Sparks Road

Double right turn at east approach of Minnesota Rd / Sparks Road intersection

2011 survey counts

2021 Base Case 2 lane Sparks Road


2021



New T Junction signalised intersection between Warnervale township access and Sparks Road

Intersection of Virginia Road with Sparks Road operating as LILO

2021

2031 Base case 2 lane Sparks Road


2031



4 way signalised intersection between Warnervale township access and Sparks Road

Intersection of Virginia Road with Sparks Road operating as LILO, with a continuous left turn from Virginia into Sparks Road

2031

3.4.3 Paramics Model Calibration Detailed Paramics model calibration is documented in Appendix D. The study area Paramics modelling results documented in Appendix D confirmed that both AM and PM peak were calibrated adequately and the model is fit for this study purpose.



4 Modelling Results 4.1 Future Traffic Forecasts

Average weekday daily traffic was derived from peak period traffic flow. Table 4-1 shows forecast daily traffic volumes on Sparks Road between Minnesota Road and Virginia Road in years 2021 and 2031.

Table 4-1 Predicted average weekday traffic on Sparks Road

Locations

2011(1)

Forecasts Average Weekday Traffic (2way, vehicles)

2021 (2) 2031

West of Virginia Road 19,400 36,500 53,300

West of Minnesota Road 18,800 34,800 45,300

East of Minnesota Road 20,300 34,100 50,300

Average traffic on Sparks Road 19,500 35,100 49,600

Note:

(1) The daily traffic on Sparks Road is an estimate from 2011 peak hour volumes.

(2) 2021 model assumes 50% of proposed developments are developed. Road network for 2021 is model as per 2021 base case network including duplication of Sparks Road (2/2). Link Road extension is not included. It is noted that there has been a change in model assumptions in Link Projects than Sparks Road study. The minor change in growth rate projection on Sparks Road is attributed by change in network assumptions.

From Table 4-1, it is observed that the average weekday daily traffic on Sparks Road between Minnesota Road and Virginia Road is forecast between 34,000 and 35,000 vehicles per day in 2021 and between 45,000 and 53,000 vehicles per day in 2031.

The future traffic growth on Sparks Road between Minnesota Road and Virginia Road will be driven by the rate of release of proposed developments. Depending on the market and global economic condition, the proposed development in and around Sparks Road may take longer time than assumed in the traffic model. Should full developments take place in 20 years’ time (by 2031) model predicts a significant high growth up to 4.8% per annum. The growth rate is projected to be in the order of 3.2% should full development takes about 30 years’ time (by 2041).


4.2 Future Intersection Performance Detailed performance assessment was undertaken for following intersections over the 10 year (2021) and the 20 year (2031) period for both AM and PM Peak Periods:

Sparks Road / Virginia Road intersection;

Sparks Road / Warnervale Township intersection; and

Sparks Road / Minnesota Road intersection

4.2.1 Intersection Performance Results in 2021 Detailed modelling was undertaken for three intersections including the new Warnervale Township / Sparks Road intersection. The Draft concept plan provided by RMS formed the basis for the intersection layouts tested for year 2021. Improvements to intersections were investigated when the intersection LoS is E or F (operating close to or over capacity).

To cater for predicted traffic growth in 2021, the analysis identified the need for intersection upgrades at the following locations:

Provision of new three way (T-junction) signal control at Sparks Road / Warnervale Township

Provision of left-in-left out intersection upgrade at Sparks Road / Virginia Road.

Figure 4-1 shows the indicative layout of required intersection upgrade (as highlighted in yellow) by year 2021.

With proposed upgrade identified in Figure 4-1, the SIDRA analysis predicted satisfactory level of service D or better. The Sparks Road was assumed to be upgraded to a four lane by 2021.

Table 4-2 below shows the estimated level of service (LoS), degree of saturation (DoS) and average delay (in seconds) for each of the three intersections operating under peak hour demands and improved traffic control where required for year 2021. Detailed SIDRA results are included in Appendix C.

Table 4-2 Forecast intersection performance in 2021 with Link Project

Intersection with Sparks Road

Intersection Type

AM Peak PM Peak

LoS DoS Avg Delay (sec)


Virginia Road Priority C 0.77 32.6 B 0.9 16

Minnesota Road Traffic Signals D 1.00 51 D 1.00 51

Warnervale Township access

Traffic Signals C 0.88 32 B 0.88 25



Figure 4-1 Proposed intersection upgrade in 2021


4.2.2 Intersection Performance in year 2031 Similar to year 2021, intersection assessment was undertaken for ultimate development year 2031.

The full development will have significant impact on key intersections. There would be increased pressure on Sparks Road and associated intersections. Additional upgrades would be required at the following locations when the site is fully developed:

Upgrade of Sparks Road traffic signals with Minnesota road to have an extension of eastbound left turn bay from 60m to 110m.

Upgrade of Virginia Road / Sparks Road intersection with provision of a continuous left turn from Virginia with a 50 m westbound merge lane and provision of 150 m eastbound through lane.

Upgrade of Sparks Road traffic signals with New Warnervale Township access to a four way intersection with extension of eastbound left turn bay form 80m to 140m. Provision of additional through lanes (200m on east approach and 120m on west approach)

Figure 4-2 shows indicative layout of required intersection upgrade (as highlighted in yellow) by year 2031. With the proposed upgrades identified, the SIDRA analysis predicted satisfactory level of service D or better by 2031.

With proposed upgrade identified in Figure 4-2, the SIDRA analysis predicted satisfactory level of service D or better. The Sparks Road was remained as a four lane in 2031.

Table 4-3 below shows the estimated level of service (LoS), degree of saturation (DoS) and average delay (in seconds) for each of the three intersections operating under peak hour demands and improved traffic control where required for year 2031. Detailed SIDRA modelling results are included in Appendix C

Table 4-1 Forecast intersection performance in 2031 with Link Project

Intersection with Sparks Road

Intersection Type

AM Peak PM Peak



Virginia Road Priority A 0.89 10 A 0.71 10

Minnesota Road Traffic Signals D 1.00 50 D 1.00 50

Warnervale Township access

Traffic Signals D 0.91 52 C 1.00 39



Figure 4-2 Proposed intersection upgrade in year 2031


4.2.3 Impact on Other Travel Modes

Bus services The proposal would not have impact on current bus service The Draft Concept plan has proposed three new bus stops at following locations:

West of Minnesota Road west bound;

East of Warnervale Township east bound; and

West of Warnervale Township westbound. This will replace the existing bus stop located east of Virginia Road.

Figure 4-3 shows location of existing and proposed new bus stop facilities within the study.

Source: RMS, Consultant analysis

Figure 4-3 Existing and proposed new bus stop in the study area

Pedestrian and Cyclist In future the 2m wide footpath will be provided on Sparks Road between Minnesota Road and New Warnervale town centre access in the westbound direction. Pedestrian’s crossings will be provided at the New Warnervale Township access / Sparks Road intersection.

The Draft Concept plan has proposed extension of off street cycle way up to the Warnervale Township.

The proposed upgrade of Sparks Road between Minnesota Road and Virginia Road consists of reasonable lane widths, approximately 3.5m wide and variable width sealed shoulders between 1m and 3m wide. The shoulders are also used as on-road bicycle lanes and are marked by bicycle symbols.



5 Summary of Findings Key findings from modelling study are:

The average weekday daily traffic on Sparks Road between Minnesota Road and Virginia Road is forecast between 34,000 and 35,000 vehicles per day in 2021 and between 45,000 and 53,000 vehicles per day in 2031.

In line with the Sparks Road Traffic Modelling Study, this Link Project modelling study predicted that extra road network capacity would be needed to cater for regional and development traffic growth but primarily for new development traffic. The current Sparks Road (with a two lane two way road) with priority controlled intersections would not accommodate significant volume of additional traffic predicted from planned development.

The future traffic growth on Sparks Road would be driven by the rate of release of proposed developments. Depending on the market and global economic condition, the proposed development in and around Sparks Road may take longer time than assumed in the traffic model. Should full developments take place in 20 years’ time (by 2031) model predicts a significant high growth up to 4.8% per annum. The growth rate is projected to be in the order of 3.2% should full development takes about 30 years’ time (by 2041).

Three intersections in association with the Link Project was assessed under forecast flows and based on four lane upgrade options. In Link project, the key access and egress point to Warnervale Township would be made via a new traffic signal controlled intersection with Sparks Road/ Township access road. Intersection upgrade was tested for 2021 and ultimate 2031 traffic conditions. The intersection modelling results suggested all three assessed intersections would operate at an acceptable level of service during the morning and afternoon peak hour. The signalised intersections would perform at level of service D or above, at full development in 2031, and therefore provide adequate capacity and operational efficiency in the long- term.


6 Table of Compliance for Project Proposal System (PPS)

Key Requirements Compliance Met (/) Relevant Report chapters

Existing Traffic concerns and associated LoS

Section 2 of Main Report (Volume1)

Predicted traffic concerns and associated LoS

Section 4.1 of Main Report (Volume 1)

Temporal or seasonal variations in traffic volumes


Forecast trends in traffic demand along Link Project corridor


Existing and future traffic distribution patterns at key intersections in link project

Figure C-1 and Figure C-2 of Appendix C (Volume 2)

Network impacts or cross modal effects

Section 2.6.1 of Main Report (Volume 1)

Access for higher mass limits, over dimensional or hazardous vehicles and or trains required and / or proposed?


Project BCR BCR will be undertaken by the RMS

N/A

Describe the base case used in the BCR

Section 3( 3.4.2) of Main Report (Volume1)

How does the BCR change by varying the discount rates and costs and other sensitive parameters such as traffic growth on the proposal.

BCR will be undertaken by RMS

N/A

What are the non-quantifiable benefits associated with Link Project.

The BCR would assess non quantifiable benefits.

N/A

Documents

Traffic Modelling Report September 2012 - Transport for NSW