Traffic model for the Bonn Agreement Area

BE-AWARE II Final Conference, 18-19 November, Ronneby, Sweden

Co-financed by the EU – Civil Protection Financial Instrument

BackgroundTask H Traffic Analysis

Overall objective:• To develop a model that describes the traffic in the area• This is later applied with the cargo model to simulate

accidents and consequences– Accident type– Location– Spill size– Spill substance

Basis:• AIS data• IHS Fairplay (representative ships)

Traffic Analysis

BackgroundProcess

• AIS data• Definition of route net• Idealised traffic

Obstacles to be treated• Areas with no/low AIS coverage or missing data

– Middle of North Sea– German Bight– Other fallouts

Future traffic

Traffic Analysis

BackgroundProject area and sub regions:

1: Atlantic2: Northern North Sea3: Eastern North Sea4: Southern North Sea5: Channel

Traffic Analysis

AIS basis- Period 2011- The true traffic- Local differences

Traffic Analysis

• • • ••

•• • Dlatt•

••

• ••

Dlong

AIS basis- Clear routes are used

- TSS- Reefs/shallow water- Vessels take the shortest journey

Traffic Analysis

AIS basis - Various vessel types

Traffic Analysis

No offshore or fishing Only offshore

Route Net• 10000 routes

Traffic Analysis

Idealised traffic

Traffic Analysis

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10.5 12.5

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7 9 11 13

Idealised trafficFor every route-Representative vessels using route-Mean value-Standard deviation

Traffic Analysis

Idealised trafficWhat do we want do capture:•Actual movement of vessels•Harbour to harbour combinations

Traffic Analysis

Areas with low coverageNorth sea and German BightGeneral approchClosure of gaps of up to 36 hours except vessels at the area around Kiel Canal

Closure of all <23 hours gaps

Manuel correction of the number of vessels on the routes in the German Bight based on Accseas project traffic.

Traffic Analysis

Areas with low coverageProcedureThe individual vessel is followedRoutes are closed by algorithm finding the shortest pathRoutes begins and ends at harbours

Traffic Analysis

Idealised trafficWhat do we have in our traffic model:•Actual movement of vessels•Harbour to harbour combinations

For every route:-Vessel information

- Type- Size- Distribution

-From/to port

Traffic Analysis

Idealised trafficHow do we apply this later:

Traffic Analysis

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Traffic model Cargo model

Route Net 2020Changes caused by:•Windfarms

•New TSS

Traffic Analysis

Route Net 2020Changes caused by:•Windfarms•New TSS

Traffic Analysis

Idealised traffic 2020Process• Make new route net• Identify ships affected• Identify alternative route

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Future traffic changes• Changes in the size of vessels• Changes in the number of voyages

Traffic Analysis

Idealised traffic 2020• Routes affected by wind parks• New TSS routes implemented• New tracks have been found for all

vessels affected• Prognosis implemented by adjusting

2011 traffic.

Traffic Analysis

Methodology

Summary and conclusion• Traffic based on current situation 2011• Best estimate of future traffic based on

adjusted tracks, sizes, voyages of vessels• Port-to-port cargo model a challenge – but

possible• Connected with the other models

(Cargo/Pilotage/other RRM)• Input for the accident model

Questions?

Thank you

beaware.bonnagreement.org