Traffic forecasts & Marketing for High Speed Train … · July 8th, 2004 Traffic Forecasts and Marketing for High Speed Train Services Introduction (France as an example) Traffic

July 8th, 2004

Traffic forecasts & Marketing

for

High Speed Train Services

(Michel LEBOEUF - SNCF)

July 8th, 2004

Traffic Forecasts and Marketing forHigh Speed Train Services

Introduction (France as an example)Traffic forecasts (modelling techniques)

High Speed Rail versus Air (modal competition)

High Speed Rail versus Road

Pricing High Speed ServicesAs a matter of conclusion

July 8th, 2004

1981

1989

1990

1996

20012001

19921994

19931994

1994 & 1996


37,2

2000 2001

1530

24,8

1996

1280

20,5

1994

1250

18,9

1993

1080 km

19,0

1992

730

14,9

1990

690

11,5

1989

Length of the high speed network (km)5905,3

0,61983

410

1981

293

High Speed Traffic

(billio

n Pass - km)

The traffic growth is in direct relationship with the network extension

July 8th, 2004


Valençay

OloronBuzy

Chars

Vernon

BarentinYvetot

Tarascon

Chagny

Livron

Moirans

Morcenx

Marmande

Marne-la-Vallée - Chessy

Lyon Part Dieu

Avignon

Brest MorlaixGuingamp

St BrieucLamballe

Landerneau

Dol

Rennes

RedonVannes

Auray

Lorient

Savenay

Nantes

Vitré

Laval

Le MansSablé

Angers

La Rochelle

Niort

Arcachon

Bordeaux Libourne

Périgueux

Brive

Mont-de-Marsan

Dax

Bayonne

Pau

Lourdes

Tarbes

Toulouse

Perpignan

Carcassonne

Narbonne

Béziers

Montpellier

Millau

AlbiMontauban

AgenRodez

Aurillac

Neussargues

Le Monastier

Tulle

Ussel

Limoges

Angoulême

Poitiers

Guéret

Montluçon

Le Puy-en-Velay

St-Étienne

Riom

Volvic

Gannat Vichy

Châtellerault

Vendôme-TGV

Tours

Châteaudun

ChartresAlençon

Surdon Dreux

Argentan

VireGranville

Pontorson

Avranches

CoutancesSt-Lo

Lison

Carentan

Cherbourg

CaenLisieux

Trouville

Dives

Le Havre

Fécamp

Rouen

Dieppe

Gisors

Évreux Mantes

Cholet

La Roche/Yon

Thouars

Saumur

ChinonPornic

St-Gilles-Croix-de-Vie

Les Sables-d'Olonne

RuffecRochefort

SaintesRoyan

Pointede Grave

Montmorillon

Châteauroux

Bourges

Vierzon

Blois

Orléans

Étampes

Le Tréport

Serqueux

St-Omer

AbbevilleArras

Lens

Béthune

Hazebrouck

Boulogne

Calais-Frethun

Dunkerque

DouaiValenciennes

Hirson

Maubeuge

Laon

Charleville-Mézières

Sedan

Longuyon

Longwy

Rethel

Tergnier

Compiègne Soissons

Longueau

Creil

Beauvais

Pontoise

MassyTGV

Arvant

La Bastide

Roanne

Givors

Valence

Alès

Nîmes

Arles

Miramas

Marseille

Orange

Hyères

GapEmbrun

Briançon

Grenoble

Aspres

Montélimar

St-Avre-la-Chambre

St-Michel-Valloire

ModaneSt-Jean-de-Maurienne

Albertville

Moutiers-Salins

Bourg-St-Maurice

St-Gervais-les-Bains

Cluses

Annecy

Aix-les-Bains

Culoz

Bourg-en-B.Annemasse

MâconTGV

Mâcon

Mouchard

Lons-le-Saunier

Montargis

Gien

Cosne/Loire

Nevers

Montchanin

Autun

Auxerre

Sens

Laroche-Migennes

Montbard

Dijon

Culmont-Chalindrey

Chaumont

Troyes

ProvinsSt-Dizier

Vitry-le-François

Bar-le-DucToul

NancyLunéville

Vesoul

Belfort

Sélestat

Colmar

Mulhouse

Montbéliard

Besançon

Épinal

Lure

Beaune

Le CreusotTGV

St-Amour

Dole

PontarlierFrasne

Moulins/Allier

Paray-le-Monial

Lyon PerracheLyonSaint ExupéryTGV

SarregueminesForbach

AéroportCharles-de-Gaulle TGV Châlons

-en-ChampagneÉpernay

ReimsThionville

Metz

Valence TGV

Agde

SèteCastelnaudary

Castelsarrasin

Orthez

Surgères

St-Maixent

Courtalain

Ancenis

St-Nazaire

Le Croisic

Rosporden

Quimperlé

Lille Europe

Ambérieu

Versailles

Melun

Valognes

Bayeux

BernayMézidon

Eu

Gournay

Châteaubriant

Hendaye

Irun

Cognac

Cahors

Auch

St-Jean-Pied-de-Port

Luchon

Lannemezan

Bressuire

Loches

Argenton/Creuse

Souillac

CerbèrePort-BouLa Tour-de-Carol

Enveitg

Dinan

St-Malo

Vendôme

Biarritz

Foix

Le Mont-Dore

Clermont-Ferrand

Bâle

Conflans-Jarny

LonguevilleBar/Aube

Langres

Sarrebourg

Molsheim

St Dié

Remiremont

La Ferté-Gaucher

Hagondange

Rémilly

Verdun

Étaples-Le Touquet

TGVHaute-Picardie

St-Quentin

CambraiAulnoye

Amiens

Mazamet

Séverac-le-Château

CapdenacFigeac

Veynes-Dévoluy

Thonon-les-Bains

Montmélian

Chalon/Saône

St-Germain-des-Fossés

Évian-les-Bains

Genève

Salbris

St-Pierre-des-Corps

Château-du-Loir

Quimper

Flers

Briouze

LoudéacCarhaix

Roscoff Lannion Paimpol

Pont-de-Dore

Ligne à grande vitesseLigne classiqueLigne classique empruntéepar les TGV

Clisson

Quiberon

La Baule

B4

TGV Bretagne-Pays de la Loire

2ème phase

POLT en TGV pendulaire

Figueras

Girona

Barcelona

TGV Perpignan-Barcelone

Contournement Nîmes-Montpellier

Chambéry

Bussoleno

Pertuis

Aix-en-P.

Avignon TGV

Les Arcs-Draguignan

St-Raphaël

Antibes

Nice

Cannes

Aix-en-ProvenceTGV

TGV Côte d'Azur Étude d'opportunité

BesançonTGV

Belfort-MontbéliardTGV

BressaneTGV

TGV Rhin-Rhône Branche Est

TGV Rhin-Rhône Branche Sud

Lorraine

Meuse

Champagne-Ardenne

TGV Est Européen 2007

Liaison rapide Normandie - Vallée de Seine

Bellegarde

Liaison transalpine

Modernisation de la ligne du Haut-Bugey

Étude TGV Pendulaire

Barreau Sud

MalesherbesMoret

Sarlat

Monsempron-Libos

Oloron-Ste-Marie

Quillan

BessègesTende

Felletin

Corbigny

Givet

Wissembourg

Futuroscope

Facture

Sisteron

Kehl

Lille Fl.

CalaisVille

ProjetVoyageursFretMixte

Amsterdam

Düsseldorf

London

Luxembourg

Lausane

Madrid

BruxellesKöln

CTRL 1 : 2003 CTRL 2 : 2007

HSL 2006

2006

1ère phase

Toulon

TGV Rhin-Rhône Branche Ouest

FRA/PROJETUDP1.PRZ04/11/2002

DIRECTION GÉNÉRALE DÉLÉGUÉE CLIENTÈLESSERVICE DÉVELOPPEMENT

Études ou projets d'ampleur nationale et européenne

Strasbourg

Torino

Menton

Monaco

Lauterbourg

Frankfurt

ÉtudeProjet CDG Express

TGV Sud Europe Atlantique

Many infrastructure projectsare in the offingfor the coming 25 years

July 8th, 2004


6h005h004h003h002h001h00

Mulhouse4h31 3h10* 2h30

Évian4h35 4h05

PARIS

Best Travel Times

2003 20072010

20102015

20152020

Chambéry2h40 2h10

Nice5h30 4h35 /3h25

Quimper4h13 3h43 3h00

Marseille3h00Montpellier

3h15 3h00Toulouse5h07 4h42 4h10/ 3h00

Bordeaux2h57 2h25 2h09

Nantes2h01 1h53

Brest4h01 3h31 3h00

Reims1h25 0h45

Strasbourg3h50 2h20 2h00

Metz/Nancy2h45/2h40 1h30

July 8th, 2004


6h005h004h003h002h001h00

Bâle4h50 3h30 2h49

Stuttgart5h55 3h50 3h30

Amsterdam4h10 3h10

Francfort5h35 3h45 3h25Cologne

3h56 3h36 3h00

Genève3h34 3h00

PARIS

sources : DGDC & TGV Est

Munich8h20 6h00 5h40

Milan6h50 5h28 4h02

Turin5h23 4h53 3h15

Barcelone8h25 5h50 5h35 5h00

Madrid13h00 8h15 8h00 7h25

Londres3h00 2h10

Bruxelles1h25

Luxembourg3h35 2h15

Best Travel Times

2003 20072010

20102015

20152020

July 8th, 2004


Introduction (France as an example)

Traffic forecasts (modelling techniques)High Speed Rail versus Air (modal competition)



July 8th, 2004


OriginCity

DestinationCity

Generalised Cost (Rail)= Price (Rail)+ h*Travel Time (Rail)GCRail = P Rail+ h*TRail

Generalised Cost (Air)= Price (Air)+ h*Travel Time (Air)GCAir = P Air+ h*TAir

July 8th, 2004


Graph 1People whose Time Value is hidon ’t care about the mode

Graph 2People whose Time Valueis less than hi are rail travellers

% (split of travellersaccording to their time value)

PassengersTime Value

TravelGeneralised Cost

GCAir

GCRail

hi hi

Rail marketshare

Air marketshare

PRail

PAir


July 8th, 2004


Graph 3Train acceleration and change in the equilibrium

Graph 4Traffic transfer from Air to Rail

GCAir

GCRail 0

hi0 hi0

Gains in marketshares

PRail

PAir

TravelGeneralised Cost



GCRail 1

hi1 hi1

% (split of travellersaccording to their time value)

July 8th, 2004


T i j =

K * Emai * Attb j

Gcc i j

T Traffic on the (ij) OD pairK Constant factorEm Caracteristic of the Emission zoneAtt Caracteristic of the Attraction zoneGc Generalized cost of transport between zones i & j

Gc = f (travel time, access and egress times, average price, number of connections, service frequency)

Gravity model

July 8th, 2004


% of Night Traffic

Travel Time (hours)

100%

0%1h 2h 3h 4h 5h 6h 7h 8h

The percentage of night traffic is evaluatedthanks to a “S” line function of the day travel time by train

July 8th, 2004



Traffic forecasts (modelling techniques)

High Speed Rail versus Air (modal competition)High Speed Rail versus Road


July 8th, 2004


Aéroport Taxi Temps de trajet Train Express / bus* Temps de trajet

Londres centre

City* 105 € 20mn 9 € 30mn

Heathrow 105 € 45mn 18 € 15mn

Gatwick 135 € 1h00 27 € 30mn

Luton 135 € 1h00 15 € 30mn

Stansted 135 € 1h10 20 € 45mn

Paris centre

Roissy CDG de 40 € à 55 € 35-45mn 7,70 € (1) 8,20 € (2) 30mn (1) /45-60mn (2)

Easyjet

Lowest price 22€Airport tax 15 €Roissy-Paris RER ticket (38km) or Taxi from 8 € to 55 €Lutton - London by Express train or Taxi from15 € to 135 €

Total one way from 60 € to 227 €Total return trip from 120 € to 113.5 €

Eurostar

Lowest price 69 €

July 8th, 2004


Commissioning of the CTRL1

Without the CTRL1 With the CTRL1

Number of Eurostar ticketsweek by week

July 8th, 2004


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 h 2 h 3 h 4 h 5 h 6 h 7 h 8 h 9 h 10 h 11 h 12 h 13 h

Rail market shareon the rail+air market

Best rail travel time (h)

Confidence rangefor the rail market share

July 8th, 2004


-40,00%

-30,00%

-20,00%

-10,00%

0,00%

10,00%

20,00%

mars-01

avr-01

mai-01

juin-01

juil-01

août-01

sept-01

oct-01

nov-01

déc-01

janv-02

févr-02

mars-02

avr-02

mai-02

juin-02

juil-02

août-02

sept-02

oct-02

nov-02

déc-02

Evo

luti

on

(%

)

Evolution of air traffic volumebetweenParis and Marseilles

month M -Y/month M (Y-1)

Mediterranean TGV Commissioning

July 8th, 2004


Market shares on the Rail+Air marketon the Madrid-Sevilla OD pair

0,00%

20,00%

40,00%

60,00%

80,00%

100,00%

120,00%

Air 76,30 79,30 48,40 18,40 20,00 18,80 18,40 18,50 18,80 17,10 16,60 15,80 15,90

Rail 23,70 20,70 51,60 81,60 80,00 81,20 81,60 81,50 81,20 82,90 83,40 84,20 84,10

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

July 8th, 2004





High Speed Rail versus RoadPricing High Speed ServicesAs a matter of conclusion

July 8th, 2004


The best strategy against roadis to increase the service frequency.

High speed trains are aptto be operated like shuttles.

July 8th, 2004


OmiyaTakasaki

è The time table is based on departuresevery 4 to 12 minutesbetween Tokyo and Omiya and Takasakifrom 6AM to 11 PM.

"ASAHI" (Tokyo - Niigata)

July 8th, 2004


è 27 departures a day from Roama to Firence

- A train every 30 minutes from 6h55 to 22h55.

- The 246 km distance between the 2 citiesare run at the commercial speed of 250km/h withatravel time of 1h35

July 8th, 2004


July 8th, 2004


è 28 trains a day betweenParis and Brussels

a departure every 30 minutes

from 6h25 to 22h31

with a 1h25 trip duration

July 8th, 2004


Car75,9%

Coach3,7%

Others2,7%

Air3,2%

Rail14,5%

Modal Mix for trips longer than 100 km in France

July 8th, 2004


Modal split on the Madrid-Sevilla marketbefore the commissioning of the AVE

60%14%

11%

15%

car Conventional trainairbus

34%

2%4%8%

52%

car

Conventional trainairbusAVE

Modal split on the Madrid-Sevilla marketafter the commissioning of the AVE

The car has lost more than 40%of its market share

The air has lost more than 60%of its market share

July 8th, 2004







July 8th, 2004


Services available on board the high speed trainsServices proposés SNCF DB

Premium 1ère classe Club Preferente ETR 500 ETR 460/480 ETR 450Catering at the seat X* X X XGlass of welcome X X* X* X* X* X*Snack meal X* X* X*Newspapers X X X X X* X* X*Bar / Cafeteria / restaurant X X X X X XMobile grocery XVideo X X XAudio (4 musical channels) X X X X XGames for childrenCloakroom X X2

On board telephone X X XParking (i) X XTaxi booking X XAccess to club lobby X1 X* X* X* X X XBaby wraping facilitiesCommodities for disabled people X XCompartments dedicated to parents with children XElectric plugs X X X XMobile stations XDedicated Business compartments X X* Included in the 1st class ticket price1 Free for SNCF "grand voayageurs"2 in ICE 3

RENFE FS

July 8th, 2004


Price ranges based on the same GNP level Price ranges

140 138131

2620 24

41 44

109

9287

103

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Paris Lyon WürzburgHanovre

StuttgartKöln

MadridSéville

MadridLérida V300

En €

140

114108

3526 22 26

34 36

110

909593 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Paris Lyon WürzburgHanovre

StuttgartKöln

MadridSéville

MadridLéridaV300

En €

1ère Classe PT +

1ère Classe PT

Prem's

2de classe TR maxi

July 8th, 2004


PDM du fersupérieur à 90%

PDM du fersupérieur à 85%

Price ranges for 2-hour high speed trip duration

July 8th, 2004







July 8th, 2004


A high speed line

Can be run at higher speeds

Is shorter Brings additionalinfrastructure capacity

Better productivitySaved time

More service frequency

Possibility to reduce the fares

More attractiveness on the passenger market

July 8th, 2004


Thank you for your attention!

Documents

Traffic forecasts & Marketing for High Speed Train … · July 8th, 2004 Traffic Forecasts and Marketing for High Speed Train Services Introduction (France as an example) Traffic