THE CHANGING FACE OF HOUSTON:Tracking the Economic and Demographic

Transformations Through 30 Years of Surveys

STEPHEN L. KLINEBERGLong-Range Financial Management Task Force

City of Houston, 10 October 2011

KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY (1982-2011)

Supported by local foundations, corporations, and individuals, and now with a permanent home in the Kinder Institute for Urban Research, the annual surveys have interviewed 30 successive representative samples of Harris County residents.

In May 1982, just two months after the first Houston-area survey was completed, the 80-year oil boom suddenly collapsed.

The region recovered from the deep and prolonged recession of the mid 1980s to find itself squarely in the midst of …

a restructured economy and

a demographic revolution.

These are the same transformations that are refashioning all of American society. The Houston surveys have tracked area residents’ changing perspectives on these remarkable trends.

POSITIVE PERCEPTIONS OF JOB OPPORTUNITIES IN HOUSTON (1982–2011)

76

41

47

11

45

27

7267

73

40

6057

49

38

38

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

PE

RC

EN

T G

IVIN

G P

OS

ITIV

E R

ATIN

GS

YEAR OF SURVEY

PERCENT DOING BETTER IN LAST FEW YEARS AND EXPECTING TO DO BETTER IN NEXT FEW YEARS

47

31

41

49

31

4244

40

32

20

28

6360

6562

58

5248

52

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

PE

RC

EN

T S

AYIN

G 'B

ETT

ER

'

YEAR OF SURVEY

Personal financial situation has been 'getting better' during the last few years

Think that will be 'better off' financially three or four years down the road

THE RESTRUCTURED ECONOMY

The “resource economy” of the industrial era, for which this city was so favorably positioned, has been replaced by a new high-tech, knowledge-based, fully worldwide marketplace.

The traditional “blue collar path” to financial security has now largely disappeared. Almost all the good-paying jobs today require high levels of technical skills and educational credentials.

In the 2011 survey, 78% disagreed that “A high school education is enough to get a good job.” In 2010, 67% of the survey respondents agreed that “There are very few good jobs in today’s economy for people without a college education.”

In this increasingly unequal, hourglass economy, “What you earn,” as the saying goes, “depends on what you’ve learned.”

TWO CONTRASTING QUARTER-CENTURIES SINCE WORLD WAR II (NATIONAL DATA, 1949-2003)

WHY THE BURGEONING INEQUALITIES?

Since 1980, the middle class has been hit by a triple whammy:

Globalization Automation Government inaction

Two “killer statistics” (Hacker and Pierson 2010): In 2007, the richest 1% of all Americans received 23.5% of the

nation's total income, up from 9% in 1977. In the past 30 years (1979 to 2009), the top 1% received 36%

of all the income gains; the top 0.1% received more of the nation's increased wealth than the bottom 60% combined.

“We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we cannot have both” (Louis D. Brandeis, Supreme Court Justice).

ADDITIONAL PROVOCATIVE QUOTATIONS

“No country in the world, without undergoing military defeat or internal revolution, has ever experienced such a sharp re-distribution of earnings as the U.S. has seen in the last gen-eration” (Lester Thurow, MIT School of Management, 1995).

“Gone forever are the days when a high school graduate could go to work on an assembly line and expect to earn a middle-class standard of living. Students who leave highschool today without skills and unprepared for further learn-ing are unlikely to ever earn enough to raise a family. Theyare being sentenced to a lifetime of poverty. A generation’s future is at stake” (Tony Wagner, Making the Grade, 2002).

“Whoever out-educates us today is going to out-compete us tomorrow” (Barack Obama, 44th President of the U.S.).

WHERE THE U.S. RANKS AMONG INDUSTRIALIZED NATIONS TODAY 16th in college completion rates 22nd in broadband Internet access 24th in life expectancy at birth 11th in the percent of 25-34 year-olds with high-school

diplomas. 17th in the proportion of college students receiving degrees

in science or engineering 48th in the quality of K-12 math and science education 29th in the number of mobile phones per 100 people (Thomas Friedman, 2011).

Our world is changing rapidly, not because of the “Decline of the West,” but because of the “Rise of the Rest” (Fareed Zakaria).

SUPPORT FOR GOVERNMENT EFFORTS TO REDUCE THE INEQUALITIES (1996-2011)

52

36

73

47 45

72

4852

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

"Most poor people in the US todayare poor because of circumstances

they can't control."

"Government should do more tosolve our country's problems."

"Government has a responsibilityto help reduce the inequalities

between rich and poor in America."

PER

CEN

T O

F R

ESPO

ND

ENTS

1996-1999

2009

2011

THE NEW IMPORTANCE OF QUALITY OF PLACE CONSIDERATIONS

Houston's prospects will now increasingly depend on the ability of the region to attract and retain the nation’s most skilled and creative “knowledge workers” and high tech companies.

This will require continued significant improvements in … the healthfulness of the region’s air and water quality the excellence of its venues for sports, arts, and culture its overall physical attractiveness and aesthetic appeal the enhancement of its green spaces, trees, and bayous the revitalization and preservation of its urban centers the region’s mobility through its transportation systems the richness of its hiking, boating, and birding areas

The public’s support for new initiatives along these lines has remained firm or grown stronger across the years of surveys.

ATTITUDES TOWARD URBAN LIFESTYLES AND LAND-USE PLANNING (2010 AND 2011)

80

4145

52

73

14

5752

42

21

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Which is the best way forHarris County to

accommodate growthduring the next 20 years?

(2010)

If you could choose whereto live in the Houston area,which would you prefer?

(2010)

If you could live anywherein the Houston area, what

sort of neighborhoodwould you prefer? (2011)

Which would be the betterway to spend taxpayertransportation money?

(2010)

'Better land-use planningto guide growth;' or

'people should be free tobuild wherever they want.'

(2010)

PER

CEN

T O

F R

ESPO

ND

ENTS

REDEVELOPOLDER AREAS

BUILD ON EDGE OF SUBURBS

DK

SMALLER, MORE URBAN,

WALKING

BIG HOME, YARD, NEED TO DRIVE

MIX OF DEVELOPMENTS

SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL AREA

IMPROVE RAIL AND BUSES

EXPAND EXISTING HIGHWAYS

BETTER LAND USE PLANNING

FREE TO BUILD WHEREVER

DK DKDK DK

LIFE IN HOUSTON COMPARED TO OTHER U.S. CITIES (2005–2011)

1610 10

6

7883

8690

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005 2007 2009 2011

PER

CEN

T O

F R

ESPO

ND

ENTS

YEAR OF SURVEY

Much/Slightly Worse

Much/Slightly Better

Between 1492 and 1965, 82 percent of all the people who came to American shores came from Europe.

Under the notorious “National Origins Quota Act” of 1924,immigration was dramatically reduced, and newcomers wererestricted almost entirely to the “Nordics” of Western Europe.

The “Hart-Celler Act” in 1965 opened the door for the firsttime to large numbers of non-Europeans, based primarily on family reunification, professional skills, or refugee status.

As a result, major new immigrant flows — non-European andof striking socioeconomic diversity — are rapidly transformingthe composition of the Houston, and American, populations.

U.S. IMMIGRATION POLICY BEFORE AND AFTER THE REFORM ACT OF 1965

THE NUMBER OF DOCUMENTED U.S. IMMIGRANTS, BY DECADE (1820-2010)

0.140.60

1.71

2.602.31 2.81

5.25

3.69

8.80

5.74

4.11

0.53

1.04

2.52

3.32

4.40

7.26

9.08

10.50

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1820s 1830s 1840s 1850s 1860s 1870s 1880s 1890s 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

NU

MB

ER O

F IM

MIG

RA

NTS

, IN

MIL

LIO

NS

Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Office of Immigration Statistics (www.dhs.gov)

THE DEMOGRAPHIC REVOLUTION

Along with the major immigration capitals of L.A. and N.Y.C., and closely following upon Miami, San Francisco, and Chicago, Houston is at the forefront of the new diversity that is refashioning the socio-political landscape of urban America.

Throughout all of its history …• this was essentially a bi-racial Southern city,

• dominated and controlled, in an automatic, taken-for-granted way, by white men.

Today …• Houston is one of the most culturally diverse

metropolitan areas in the country, and

• all of its ethnic communities are now “minorities.”

THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY (1960-2010)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

PO

PU

LATI

ON

, IN

MIL

LIO

NS

Asians/Others

Hispanics

Blacks

Anglos

6.3%

32.9%

18.3%

42.5%

6.0%19.8%

73.9%

0.3%9.9%

20.1%

69.2%

0.8%

15.5%

19.7%

62.7%

2.1% 22.7%

19.1%

54.0%

4.1%

(1,243,258) (1,741,912) (2,409,547) (2,818,199) (3,400,578) (4,092,459)

SOURCE: US CENSUS. CLASSIFICATIONS BASED ON TEXAS STATE DATA CENTER CONVENTIONS.

7.7%

18.4%

40.8%

33.0%

THE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES IN THE FOUR LARGEST SURROUNDING COUNTIES (2000-2010)

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Fort Bend-2000(354,452)

Fort Bend-2010(585,375)

Montgomery-2000(293,768)

Montgomery-2010(455,746)

Galveston-2000(250,158)

Galveston-2010(291,309)

Brazoria-2000(241,767)

Brazoria-2010(313,166)P

OP

ULA

TIO

N

Asians/Others

Hispanics

Blacks

Anglos

46.2%

19.6%

21.1%

13.1%

36.2%

21.1%

23.7%

19.0%

81.4%

3.4%

12.6%

2.5%

63.1%

15.3%

18.0%

3.7%

59.3%

13.5

22.4

4.8%

65.4%

8.3%

22.8%

3.5%

53.2%

11.8%

27.7%

7.3%

71.2%

4.1%

20.8%

4.0%

SOURCE: US CENSUS. CLASSIFICATIONS BASED ON TEXAS STATE DATA CENTER CONVENTIONS.

INTERACTIONS OF ETHNICITY AND AGE

The other demographic revolution: the remarkable “aging,” or “graying,” of the American population.

Today’s seniors are primarily Anglos, and so are the 76 million Baby Boomers, now aged 47 to 65. During the next 30 years, the numbers of Americans over the age of 65 will double.

The younger generations are disproportionately non-Angloand generally far less privileged, in terms of their levels ofincome, education, health status, and life chances.

Nowhere is this ongoing transformation more clearly seenthan in the age distributions of Harris County’s population.

ETHNICITY BY AGE IN HARRIS COUNTY (2007-2011, COMBINED)

69

60

42

2318 20

2522

1115

27

45

24 6

10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

AGES 65-95 (N=657) AGES 47-64 (N=1,119) AGES 30-46 (N=918) AGES 18-29 (N=569)

PER

CEN

T O

F R

ESPO

ND

ENTS

Anglos

Blacks

Hispanics

Asians/Others

EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN FIVE HOUSTON COMMUNITIES (1994-2011, COMBINED)

64

10

15

46

1417

27

32

25

18

31

3532

17

36

29

1715

9

25

18

10

64

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Asian Immigrants(N=1,180)

US-born Anglos(N=7,775)

US-born Blacks(N=7,593)

US-born Latinos(N=4,280)

Latino Immigrants(N=3,637)

PER

CEN

T O

F R

ESPO

ND

ENTS

Less than H.S.

H.S. diploma

Some college

College degree

Post-graduate

SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS AMONG LATINO IMMI-GRANTS BY TIME IN U.S. AND GENERATION (94-11)

24

18

26

40

32

2523 24

34

50

35

51

39

46

52

71

40

73

4955

6974

36

71

5660

77

83

45

69

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Education beyondhigh school.

Household incomegreater than

$35,000.

Uses a computer atwork or home.

Has healthinsurance for self

and family.

Lives in thesuburbs, outside

the city.

Owns the placewhere lives.

PER

CEN

T O

F R

ESPO

ND

ENTS

In U.S. 0-9 years (N=1,255)

In U.S. 10-19 years (N=1,232)

In U.S. 20+ years (N=1,100)

2nd generation (N=1,680)

3rd+ generation (N=2,585)

ASSIMILATION AMONG LATINO IMMIGRANTS BY TIME IN THE U.S. AND BY GENERATION (1994-2011)

18

86

67 67

45

88

27

78

6972

40

89

55

47

5853

30

63

88

29

43

34

25

64

93

17

3329

15

39

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

The interview wasconducted in

English, rather thanSpanish.

Respondent thinksof self as primarily

Hispanic.

Preschoolers likelyto have problems

later if both parentswork.

A disapproved-ofbook should be kept

out of publiclibraries.

The U.S. shouldadmit more

immigrants in thenext ten years.

Three closestfriends in Houstonare all Hispanics.

PER

CEN

T O

F R

ESPO

ND

ENTS

In U.S. 1-9 years (N=1,258) In U.S. 10-19 years (N=1,231)In U.S. 20+ years (N=1,095) 2nd generation (N=1,657)3rd+ generation (N=2,500)

ATTITUDES TOWARD ETHNIC DIVERSITY IN HOUSTON (1994-2011)

54

6967

61

54

39

5457

44

49

41

57

64

69

60

6569

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

PER

CEN

T O

F R

ESPO

ND

ENTS

YEAR OF SURVEY

The increasing ethnic diversity is a good thing.

The immigration strenghthens American Culture.

The increasing ethnic diversity will become a source of great strength for the city.

INTERETHNIC ROMANTIC RELATIONSHIPS BY AGE, ANGLOS ONLY (2007 AND 2011, COMBINED)

40 42

49

60

72

87

57 58

50

39

28

13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

AGES 18-29 AGES 30-39 AGES 40-49 AGES 50-59 AGES 60-69 AGES 70-93

PER

CEN

T O

F R

ESPO

ND

ENTS

No Yes

“Have you ever been in a romantic relationship with someone who was not Anglo?” (Anglo respondents only.)

ETHNIC ATTITUDES BY AGE AMONG ANGLOS (2006-2011, COMBINED)

66

60

53

7370

47 45

6266

46

35

59

53

36 36

53

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Houston's increasingdiversity will eventually

become a source of greatstrength for the city.

The increasing immigrationinto this country today mostly

strengthens Americanculture.

The influx of undocumentedimmigrants is NOT a 'very

serious' problem for Houston.

Favor: Granting illegalimmigrants a path to legal

citizenship, if speak Englishand no criminal record.

PE

RC

EN

T A

GR

EE

ING

IN E

AC

H A

GE

-GR

OU

P

Ages 18-29 Ages 30-44 Ages 45-59 Ages 60-93

THE NEW PRO-GROWTH AGENDA

To prosper in the high-technology, knowledge-based, worldwide economy, this city (and nation) will need to nurture a far more educated workforce and fashion policies to reduce the growing inequalities and prevent the rise of a new urban underclass.

To attract the most innovative companies and talented individuals, Houston will need to grow into a more environmentally and aes-thetically appealing urban destination, and develop the research centers that will fuel the engines of growth in the new economy.

If this region is to flourish in the years ahead, it will need to develop into a much more unified and inclusive multiethnic society, in which equality of opportunity is truly made available to all citizens and all of its communities are empowered to participate as full partners in shaping the Houston future.

CONTACT INFORMATION

THE KINDER INSTITUTE FOR URBAN RESEARCH AT RICE UNIVERSITYPROFESSORS STEPHEN KLINEBERG AND MICHAEL EMERSON,

CO-DIRECTORS

For copies of the following publications:

the report on the first 24 years of Houston surveys, 2005

the report on six major sectors of the greater Houston region, 2007

or to download additional reports and PowerPoint slides

Please visit the institute’s website:

www.kinder.rice.eduPhone: 713-348-4132 or kinder@rice.edu