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Rhode Island Convention Center • Providence, Rhode Island
Federal Renewable Energy Project Potential
Track 13A Renewable Energy - Session 3
Emma Elgqvist1, Rachel Shepherd2, Andy Walker1 Tuesday, August 9, 4:00pm – 5:30pm, 2016
1National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), 2Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP)
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Session Panelists
Rachel Shepherd
FEMP, Renewable Energy Program Manager
202-586-9209
Andy Walker
NREL, Principal Engineer
303-384-7531
Emma Elgqvist
NREL, Engineer
303-275-3606
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade 3
Agenda
I. Executive Order 13693 Renewable Energy Goals
II. Renewable Energy Technologies
III. Renewable Energy Screening Levels
IV. Federal Renewable Energy Project Potential Study
V. Questions and Answers
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade 4
I. Executive Order 13693 Renewable Energy Goals
II. Renewable Energy Technologies
III. Renewable Energy Screening Levels
IV. Federal Renewable Energy Project Potential Study
V. Questions and Answers
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Statutes and Executive Orders for Renewable Energy
• Defines Renewable Energy (RE)
• 7.5% RE electricity by 2013 and beyond Energy Policy Act 2005
• Net Zero Carbon by 2030
• 30% solar hot water EISA 2007
• At least half of RE must be new (<1999) Executive Order 13423
(2007)
• 20% Carbon Reduction by 2020 Executive Order 13514
(2009)
• 20% RE electricity by 2020 Presidential
Memorandum 2013
• 30% RE electric by 2025
• 25% clean energy by 2025
Executive Order 13693 (2015)
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Total Renewable Electric Energy
i. 10% in FY 2016 and 2017
ii. 15% in FY 2018 and 2019
iii. 20% in FY 2020 and 2021
iv. 25% in FY 2022 and 2023
v. 30% by FY 2025 and each year thereafter
Clean Energy
i. 10% in FY 2016 and 2017
ii. 13% in FY 2018 and 2019
iii. 16% in FY 2020 and 2021
iv. 20% in FY 2022 and 2023
v. 25% by FY 2025 and each year thereafter
Executive Order 13693
Executive Order 13693§ 3(c) Executive Order 13693§ 3(b)
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Renewable Electric Energy and Clean Energy Definitions
𝐶𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 =𝑅𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑤𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐 𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 + 𝐴𝑙𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦
– Solar
– Wind
– Biomass
– Landfill gas
– Ocean (including tidal, wave, current, and thermal)
– Geothermal
– Geothermal heat pumps
– Micro turbines1 (powered by renewable fuels)
– Municipal solid waste
– New2 hydroelectric generation capacity achieved from increased efficiency or additions of new capacity at an existing hydroelectric project
No longer includes hydrokinetic energy
Does not allow hydroelectric energy added to an existing dam that has not been used for hydropower in the past
– Thermal renewable energy (including from
combined heat and power [CHP] and fuel cell
systems)
– Small modular nuclear reactor output
– CHP and fuel cells powered by fossil fuels, but
only the amount of output left after
subtracting the amount of natural gas
(thermal component) and/or electricity
(eGRID factor) that would produce the same
amount of Btu/electricity
– Other alternative energy: If agreed, FEMP can
petition CEQ on behalf of agencies to include
mechanical, ocean/aquifer, and daylighting in
the “other” category
Renewable Electric Energy includes:
Alternative Energy includes:
1 Not included in previous statutory (42 U.S.C. § 15852(b)(2)) and Executive Order 13514 definition 2 "New" means placed in service after 1/1/199
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
E.O. 13693 Priority Ranking of Strategies
Install agency-funded RE on-site at facilities; retain renewable energy certificates (RECs)
Contract for the purchase of energy that includes the installation of RE at
a facility or off-site from a facility; retain RECs
Purchase RECs
Purchase electricity and corresponding
RECs or equivalent
1
2
3
4
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade 9
Federal Government’s Progress Towards Renewable Electric Energy Goal
3.4%
4.2%
5.3% 5.8%
7.2%
9.2% 8.8%
8.3%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
RE
as a
Per
cen
tage
of
Faci
lity
Elec
tric
ity
Ren
ewab
le E
lect
rici
ty (
MW
h)
Fiscal Year
Federal Government Renewable Electricity Use
Agency Owned (On-Site) Bonus Credit for On-site Renewable Energy (Direct)
Bonus Credit for On-site Renewable Energy (REC Replacement) Electricity Purchases and Agency Owned (Off-Site)
REC Purchases (Off-Site) Percentage Towards Goal
FY15 RE Electricity Goal
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade 10
Renewable Electricity by Source FY15
49%
19%
9% 8%
8%
7%
RENEWABLE ELECTRIC ENERGY BY SOURCE IN FY15
Wind
Solar Photovoltaic
Wood and Wood Residuals
Incremental Hydropower
Biogas (Captured Methane)
Other
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade 11
On-Site Renewable Electricity by Source FY15
13%
44%
10%
15%
18%
ON-SITE RENEWABLE ELECTRIC ENERGY BY SOURCE IN FY15
Wind
Solar Photovoltaic
Wood and Wood Residuals
Incremental Hydropower
Biogas (captured methane)
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade 12
I. Executive Order 13693 Renewable Energy Goals
II. Renewable Energy Technologies
III. Renewable Energy Screening Levels
IV. Federal Renewable Energy Project Potential Study
V. Questions and Answers
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Types of Photovoltaic Modules
Single- Crystal
Multi- Crystal
CIGS Cadmium Telluride
Thin Film Si
14 to 23% 13 to 17% 12 to 15% 10 to 17% 6 to 11%
• Most efficient • Rigid
• Efficient • Less area per
watt • Rigid
• Can be made flexible
• Low temperature effect
• Uses no silicon • Rigid
• Uses relatively little silicon
• Can be made flexible
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Alternating Current (AC) PV System with Inverter
Solar Energy: Technologies and Project Delivery for Buildings John Wiley and Sons Inc., Hoboken NJ; Sept 16 2013; ISBN 978-1-118-13924-0.
Photovoltaic System Diagram
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Solar Resource- tilt=local latitude
Federal Energy Management Program; Renewable Energy Geospatial Screening Map Tool http://maps.nrel.gov/femp
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
PV applications evolve from high-value, off-grid applications to widespread use as the cost of PV comes down and goals for carbon reduction and RE use go up
Hybrid and Village Power
Distributed Generation
Renewable Energy Deployment: PV Applications
Lighting, 96 W, GSA, HI,
1995
Campground, 1 kW, NPS, CA,
2001
Alcatraz Microgrid, 305 kW NPS, CA, 2011
Microgrid Utility Power
USAF Academy, 6,000 kW, CO, 2011
VA Hospital, 309 kW, CA, 2008
Off-Grid Campus, 7 kW NPS, WY, 2005
Small, Remote Loads
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Solar Ventilation Air Preheat
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Delivery for Solar Ventilation Air Preheat
Federal Energy Management Program; Renewable Energy Geospatial Screening Map Tool http://maps.nrel.gov/femp
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Types of Solar Water Heating Collectors
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Solar Water Heating System Diagram
Solar Energy: Technologies and Project Delivery for Buildings John Wiley and Sons Inc., Hoboken NJ; 2013; ISBN 978-1-118-13924-0.
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Types of Concentrating Solar Power
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Concentrating Solar Power System Diagram
figure courtesy of SkyFuel Inc.
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Wind Turbine Diagram
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Wind Energy Resource
Federal Energy Management Program; Renewable Energy Geospatial Screening Map Tool http://maps.nrel.gov/femp
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Biomass Energy System Diagram
from Whole Building Design Guide (WBDG.org)
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Biomass Energy Resources
Federal Energy Management Program; Renewable Energy Geospatial Screening Map Tool http://maps.nrel.gov/femp
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Hydropower Resources
Map of the size and location of opportunities greater than 1 MW at existing non-powered dams in the US, and also locations of Feasible Small Hydro Project sites
Federal Energy Management Program; Renewable Energy Geospatial Screening Map Tool http://maps.nrel.gov/femp
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Geothermal Heat Pump System Diagram
Heating Cooling
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Locations of Hydrothermal Resources (mainly in the Western states) and potential for Deep Enhanced Geothermal Systems.
Geothermal Resources
http://maps.nrel.gov/re_atlas
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Renewable Energy Markets: Top 5 States
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade 31
I. Introductions
II. Executive Order 13693 Renewable Energy Goals
III. Renewable Energy Technologies
IV. Renewable Energy Screening Levels
V. Federal Renewable Energy Project Potential Study
VI. Questions and Answers
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade 32
Renewable Energy Potential
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade 33
Drivers of Renewable Energy Projects
Resource Data
Roof and land
availability
Utility energy costs
Inflation and
escalation rates
State incentives
and policies
Drivers of Renewable Energy Project Potential
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Level/Name Purpose Inputs from Site Outputs
0. Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) Screening
Technical and economic viability trends across portfolio
• Location LCOE
1. Initial RE screening of one or multiple sites
Provide initial go/no-go for feasibility study
• Location • Annual electric and thermal
consumption and cost • Estimated area available
• Preliminary technology size(s) and economics
• Prioritized list of potential opportunities
2. Detailed analysis
Recommend technology size and operating strategy
• 15 minute electric data • Thermal load profiles • Utility rate tariffs
Recommended technology size, dispatch strategy, and economics
3. Custom detailed analysis
Recommend technology sizes, operating strategies for new and existing equipment
• Data on existing or custom system size, efficiency, costs, and operating constraints
Recommended technology size, dispatch strategy, and economics
Renewable Energy Analysis Levels
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade 35
I. Introductions
II. Executive Order 13693 Renewable Energy Goals
III. Renewable Energy Technologies
IV. Renewable Energy Screening Levels
V. Federal Renewable Energy Project Potential Study
VI. Questions and Answers
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
US Renewable Energy Growth (MW)
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Federal Renewable Electric Energy Goal
• 2015 goal subject building electricity use: 45,370 GWh • RE generation to meet 30% RE electricity goal: 13,611 GWh • 2015 federal on-site RE consumption: 739 GWh
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Ene
rgy
Use
(G
Wh
)
2015 Goal subject buildings electricity use: 45,370 GWh
RE generation to meet 30% by 2025 goal: 13,611 GWh
2015 federal on-site RE generation: 739 GWh
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade 38
Federal Goal Relative to Current Deployment
Give current facility energy consumption, in order to meet the 30% goal with a single technology, what amount of that technology would have to be installed?
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
PV Wind CSP Biomass Geothermal (EGS)
MW
RE to meet 30% RE Goal (less on-site RE) MW Cumulative installed US capacity (MW) Amount Installed in US in 2014 (MW)
2
1
3
How does this amount compare to cumulative installed capacity for this technology in the US?
How does this compare to the installed capacity for this technology in 2014?
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
• CTS data was used to perform a high-level analysis of renewable energy potential in the federal sector
• Federal agencies reports key metrics to the CTS data warehouse for covered facilities (those constituting 75% of an agency’s energy use)
• In 2014 (last complete reporting year), this list included 8,226 federal sites
39
Federal RE Potential Study Overview – CTS Data
Key Metrics Reported Range of Data Reported
City, ST zip code US and international locations
Gross square footage 300 ft2 to 35 million ft2
Total energy use 1.7 MMBtu to 3,960,207 MMBtu
Total water use 0.1 to 1.8 billion gallons
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade 40
US Facility Location and Electricity Use
Varying electricity usage across 8,000+ locations in all 50 states
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
• LCOE calculation can be performed with resource, energy consumption and cost data available; limited site-specific info needed
• Output: Calculate levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and compare to prevailing utility energy prices
• Technologies: Solar PV, wind, solar hot water, solar ventilation preheat
LCOE Analysis
• Not all data required for LCOE calculation are available for all technologies (e.g., immature technology or additional site-specific data needed)
• Output: Overlay federal lands with resource datasets to identify sites with potential
• Technologies: Geothermal direct use heat and power
Resource Screening
• Not all data required for LCOE calculation is available in the CTS dataset
• Output: Developed screening methodology based on additional information known by site
• Technologies: Combined heat and power, biomass thermal
Building Selection Criteria
41
3 Approaches to Evaluating Federal Renewable Energy Potential
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade 42
LCOE Methodology
Inputs
Sizing
Outputs
Resource
Site Energy Use
Technology LCOE
Incentives
Utility Rates
Site Location
Technology Characteristics
LCOE-Price Spread
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade 43
2015: LCOE Analysis Static Results for PV, Wind, Biomass
Location of PV projects with LCOE lower than utility rates
PV LCOE compared to utility rate (sorted by project size)
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade 44
2016: Dynamic LCOE Calculator
0% 30%
Incentive Value (ITC)
-30% +30%
Technology Costs
Base Case Costs
Allows user to adjust key inputs, filter by agency or location, and export results
PV LCOE Spread
-$0.15 to -$0.10
-$0.10 to -$0.05
-$0.05 to $0.00
$0.00 to $0.05
$0.05 to $0.10
$0.10 to $0.15
$0.15 to $0.20
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
• Identify sites located near known resource
• Applicable technologies: – Geothermal direct use
heating and power
– Concentrated solar power
• Screen for minimum load required for on-site off-taker
45
Resource Evaluation for Additional Technologies
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Selection Criteria for Building-Specific Technologies
Initial Screening: Narrow down list of
potential sites
Existing infrastructure
(centralized systems are better) thermal load
(large consistent thermal load)
Existing Fuel Type Higher cost fuels
(diesel, propane) = better
Total energy load (larger load = better)
Regional energy costs (higher cost = better)
Subset of sites
Additional Screening: Can evaluate with
building specific data
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
• 1,324 cost-effective PV projects (PV LCOE lower than utility cost) • These projects add up to 1,876 MW (assuming size = average load) • These projects would produce 2,569,358 MWh/year
47
Results and Insights
-$0.300
-$0.200
-$0.100
$0.000
$0.100
$0.200
$0.300
$0.400
$0.500
$0.600
$0.700
LCO
E ($
/kW
h)
PV LCOE Spread (utility cost- technology LCOE) PV LCOE lower than utility cost
Most projects at or close to grid parity
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
• Generation from wind and PV projects add up to almost half of the 30% RE goal (not including on-site bonus) • High-level analysis – not all projects are viable • Percentage varies by agencies
• Techno-economic potential not the main barrier to RE deployment
Impact on Federal Goal
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Ene
rgy
Use
(G
Wh
)
Wind projects with LCOE lower than utility cost: 3,950 GWh
PV projects with LCOE lower than utility cost:2,570 GWh
2015 Goal subject buildings electricity use: 45,370 GWh
RE generation to meet 30% by 2025 goal: 13,611 GWh
2015 federal on-site RE generation: 739 GWh
Energy Exchange: Federal Sustainability for the Next Decade
Questions & Answers
Rachel Shepherd
FEMP, Renewable Energy Program Manager
202-586-9209
Andy Walker
NREL, Principal Engineer
303-384-7531
Emma Elgqvist
NREL, Engineer
303-275-3606
http://energy.gov/eere/femp/federal-renewable-energy-project-potential-technology
Rhode Island Convention Center • Providence, Rhode Island 50
Thank You!
