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Analysis of NARCCAP results in the Pacific Northwest… for decision-making in the upper Columbia Basin. T.Q. Murdock, Climate Scientist, PCIC G. Burger , Climate Scientist, PCIC H. Eckstrand, GIS Analyst, PCIC J. Hiebert, Computing Support, PCIC. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Analysis of NARCCAP results in the Pacific Northwest
for decision-making in the upper Columbia Basin
T.Q. Murdock, Climate Scientist, PCIC
G. Burger, Climate Scientist, PCICH. Eckstrand, GIS Analyst, PCICJ. Hiebert, Computing Support, PCIC2011 NARCCAP Users Meeting Boulder, Colorado, USA 08 APR 2011
1980-1999 Winter Climatology NCEP2, CRU, RCM ensemble
1980-1999 Winter Climatology NCEP, CRU, RCM ensemble
2050s change GCM vs. RCM
Change in extreme day of period
Projected 10th/90th percentiles
2050s projected 100-yr return period
Chart1
1008219932
10020166
1971-2000Observations
CRCM / CGCM3
RCM3 / CGCM3
RCM3 / GFDL
Return Period
2050s projected changes to extremes - Castelgar
Sheet1
1971-2000ObservationsCRCM / CGCM3RCM3 / CGCM3RCM3 / GFDL
100 yr P1008219932
100 yr T10020166
To resize chart data range, drag lower right corner of range.
SummaryRCMs useful tools for decision making in areas of complex topography and steep climate gradientsImprovements from NCEP2 ~225 km (2.5) to 50 kmBiases comparable to difference between observationsFuture (winter) projectionswarmer, wetter, large changes to extreme temperaturesAnalysis of extremes underway need ensemble with multiple RCMs driven by multiple GCMs
Data sourcesNorth American Regional Climate Change Assessment Project (NARCCAP ): winter season (Dec-Jan-Feb)NCEP-DEO AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2): M. Kanamitsu, W. Ebisuzaki, J. Woollen, S-K Yang, J.J. Hnilo, M. Fiorino, and G. L. Potter. 1631-1643, Nov 2002, Bul. of the Atmos. Met. Soc.CRU TS2.1: interpolated station observations 50 km resolution: Mitchell and Jones, 2005: An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int. J. Climatology, 25, 693-712, Doi: 10.1002/joc.1181. Additional observations: Environment Canada climate stations, CANGRID, UDEL, NARR2m, VIC driving data
AcknowledgmentsHailey Eckstrand GIS wizard Seth McGinnis NARCCAP supportGerd Burger & James Hiebert Analysis of extremesDave Bronaugh GCM data Katrina Bennett VIC historical dataset
*Thank you Comments, questions, criticism: [email protected]
More info on PCIC: www.PacificClimate.org
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