Towards a Ceara State Drought Policy - wamis.org · Ceara State Government - Brazil IMA – Municipality Watch Index Relief Programme Calculated since 2004, IMA is an index to measure

Towards a Ceara State Drought Policy

FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water ResourcesSecretariat of Science, Technology and Higher EducationsCeara State Government - Brazil

Geographical Location, Dimensions and Boundaries

Total Area148,825.6 km2

BRAZIL AND ITS SEMIARID REGION

Area = 1,561,177.8 km2 (18.26% of Brazil area)

Population = 48 millions of people (28.9% of the Brazil population)

Population density = 30.54 people/km2 (very high for semiarid conditions)

Most of the semiarid population is concentrated in urban areas (60.6%).


CONTEXT

Very high spatio-temporal variability

70% of rainfall occurs between February and May

Potential Evaporation is less than precipitation only in two months (Mar & Apr)

Hiperarid < 0,03

Arid 0,03 – 0,20

Semiarid 0,21 – 0,50

Dry Subumid 0,51 – 0,65

P/ET

RAINFAL AND P/ETP ratio


CONTEXT

74% of Ceará has Cristaline embasement

Low-depth soils

Soil losses (agriculture practices in place, rainfall severe events)

GEOLOGY AND SOILS


CONTEXT


INFLOWSlow depth soils, cristaline embasement which can frequently be seen at the surface, higher evaporation, a highly concentrated rainfall regime

Se asonality of Oros Inflow

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Month

Flow

(m^3

/s)

Mean

MedianQuantile (75)

Quantile (25)

Quantile (90)

Quantile (10)

Seção de Arneiroz (Histograma Médio)

3.269.84

27.93

47.54

11.52

1.63 1.5 0.02 0 0.01 0.08 1.850

10

20

30

40

50

Jan

Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul

Ago Set Out Nov Dez

Average Inflow

Ephemeral riversrun during a few months of the first semester

Seasonality of rain determined by N-S migration of the ITCZRain Start: ITCZ reaches Southernmost (Feb) + January Cold FrontsRain End: ITCZ migrates N of Equator (June-July)

SOCIOECONOMY

GDP by Sector

Economically Active Population


CONTEXT

HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX

Limites municipais.shp0.551 - 0.5890.589 - 0.6190.619 - 0.6460.646 - 0.6840.684 - 0.786

Açudes_pol.shpLeitosperenizadospol.shp


CONTEXT

Rain feed

Dryland agriculture

40% Economically active population

5% of the Gross Domestic Product

Greater vulnerability

Spatially difuse

Lower income per capita and HDI values

TWO DIFFERENT WORLDS IN THE SEMIARID...

ε HIDROSYSTEM

Linked to the water resources system

Irrigated agriculture, industry and human supply

60% Economically active population

90% of the Gross Domestic Product

Minor vulnerability

Spatially concentrated

Higher income per capita and HDI values

ε HIDROSYSTEM/


Pop. 3,100,000 (41%)39% of occupation50% Industry and Sevices

62% GDP -->19 bi/year

GDP per capita US$ 1400,00

89% of Tax Revenues

More productive

INTERIOR OF THE STATE

Pop. 4,200,000 (59%)61% of occupation~100% of agriculture

32% GDP -->7 bi/year

GDP per capita US$500,00

11% of Taxe Revenues

Low produtivity

METROPOLITAN AREA

TWO DIFFERENT WORLDS IN THE SEMIARID...


COPING WITH DROUGHTS IN CEARÁ





Knowledgement and monitoring our semiarid

Cobertura Vegetal

Uso da Terra

Solos

Recursos Hídricos

Desertificação

Zoneamento

Região Semi-árida - NE


Identifying Vulnerabilities

Type of Climate


IMA – Municipality Watch Index Relief ProgrammeCalculated since 2004, IMA is an index to measure the vulnerability of each of the 184

municipalities of Ceará in relation to climatic and agricultural issues. It considers 12

indicators: 1) Agricultural productivity by hectare

2) Agricultural production per capita

3) Use of harvested area with subsistence farming

4) Crop shortfall

5) Proportion of families benefiting from “Bolsa Família”

6) Number of “Seguro Safra” insurances per 100 rural residents

7) Climatology

8) Standard deviation of rainfall

9) Runoff

10) Rainfall distribution index

11) Aridity index

12) Coverage rate of urban water supply


IMA – Municipality Watch Index Relief Programme

Where:

VV

Vmpm II

III

Ipm = standardized value of the indicator “I”, in the city “m”

Im = value of the indicator “I”, in the city “m”

I-V = lower value of the indicator “I”, among all cities

I+V = higher value of the indicator “I”, among all cities

n

IIMA

n

ipm

m

1

IMAm = IMA to the municipality or city “m”

Ipm = value of the standardized indicator “I”, in the city “m”

n = total of selected indicators

Obs. In case where lower value indicates less vulnerability and higher value indicates greater vulnerability (for example, crop shortfall index)

I-V = Imin and I+V = Imax; otherwise I+V = Imin and I-V = Imax (for example in case of an index related to agricultural productivity)


According to their IMA, each municipality is classified in four classes of vulnerability:

Class 1: High Vulnerability

Class 2: Medium-High Vulnerability

Class 3: Medium-Low Vulnerability

Class 4: Low Vulnerability

IMAIMA

IMAIMAIMA

IMAIMAIMA

IMAIMA


FORECASTING SYSTEM

CLIMATE DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING FORECAST SYSTEM FOR NORDESTE

PERSISTED GLOBAL SST ANOMALIES

ECHAM4.5 AGCM (T42)

AGCM INITIAL CONDITIONS

UPDATED ENSEMBLES (10+)WITH OBSERVED SSTs

Persisted SSTAensembles

1 Mo. lead

Predicted SSTAensembles

1-4 Mo. lead

10

10

PostProcessing

RSM97 (60km)RAMS (40km)

HISTORICAL DATA•Extended Simulations•Observations

PREDICTED SST ANOMALIESTropical Pacific Ocean(LDEO Dynamical Model)(NCEP Dynamical Model)(NCEP Statistical CA Model)Tropical Altantic Ocean(CPTEC Statistical CCA Model)Tropical Indian Ocean(IRI Statistical CCA Model)Extratropical Oceans(Damped Persistence)

IRI FUNCEME

CPTECGCM (T42)

Hydrologic Models


General Circulation Model

“Downscaling”Regional Climate Model Or Statistical Model

Hydrologic Model

Crop Model

Reservoir Operation Model

Economic Model

Regional Climate Predictors

Statistical Model

Reservoir Inflows

Inflow/yield forecasts


Some Actions



PAE/CE – State Programme of Action to Combat Desertification and Mitigating the Efects of Droughts

The overall goal of PAE/CE is to contribute to the

coexistence in Semiarid region and environmental

sustainability of Caatinga Biome, promoting

environmental, social and economic policies aimed at

poverty reduction.

Subprogramme 1 - Natural Resource Management and Sustainable Production



Objective: to promotes interventions aimed to

conservation, restoration and use of natural

resources in order to reduce the impacts of

human action in the process of desertification

and encourage transition to ecological

production to minimize the degrading action

of the areas susceptible to desertification.



Subprogramme 2 – Living in the Semiarid and Climate Change

Objective: to propose actions to enable the

rural workers to adapt to climate change

without loss in quality of life.



Subprogramme 3 – Participative Management

Objective: to promote environmental, social

and economic policies aimed at poverty

reduction in line with the preservation and

conservation of natural resources, adopting

an institutional integration, dialogue and

participation of society.



Subprogramme 4 – Environmental Citizenship

Objective: to promote the collective

consciousness about the issue of

desertification and climate change enabling

the formation and incorporation of new habits,

attitudes and values toward ensuring the

integrity of the environment as a basis for

sustaining the quality of life.

Recovery and preservation of natural

resources

Creating favorable conditions for

developing rural community in semi-arid

region of Ceará


PRODHAM – Project of Hydro-Environmental Development



It aims to develop, with pilot and

experimental nature, coordinated

actions and sustainable recovery and

preservation of hydro-environmental

projects in four watersheds located in

semi-arid region of Ceará.

PRODHAM builts:

3,332 successive dams of sediment containment

27 underground dams

470 cisternas



implanted:

47.6 ha of reforestation and restoration of mata ciliar

2.2 ha of dry farming

129,928 m of terracing contour

70,682 m of stone ridges contour

3,810 m of strings of vegetation

and promoted the recovery of 5.3 ha

Results (1999-2009)


São José ProjectProgram to oppose rural poverty in Ceará

The São José Project was created in 1995

with the aim of improving the living conditions of

poor families in rural areas of the state, raise the

quality of life and increase the generation of

employment and income of the beneficiary

population.

The main actions developed by the Projeto São José are:

rural electrification

community systems of water supply

agricultural mechanization

rural housing in settlement areas

productive projects

All these actions are coordinated by the partnership and include several Secretaries of

Ceara State and their representatives, foremost among them the:

Enterprise Technical Assistance and Rural Extension (Ematerce)

Superintendent of Water Works (Sohidra)

Company of Water and Sewage of the State of Ceará (Cagece)


São José ProjectProgram to oppose rural poverty in Ceará

São José ProjectProgram to Oppose Rural Poverty in Ceará

FUNCEME ‐ Research Institute for Meteorology and Water ResourcesSecretariat of Science, Technology and Higher EducationsCeara State Government ‐ Brazil

Results

Since JAN/2007 to JUN/2011:

Actions Nº Families Investiment (R$)

rural electrification 813 2,855,230.56

community systems of water supply 64,782 77,540,806.04

agricultural mechanization 32,418 41,405,090.27

rural housing in settlement areas 1,662 1,088,303.69

productive projects 9,827 15,166,629.44

The Pacto das Águas was is a initiative of the Ceara State

Legislative Assembly, which aims to draw a diagnosis and a

strategic plan for managing the State Water Resources. It was

concluded in 2009 with the publication of a diagnostic study (Current

Scenario of Water Resources), strategic plan (Water Resources

Strategic Plan of Ceará) and eleven Regional Watershed

Notebooks. It was presented to society and has a workable plan

agreed upon by the organs, institutions and civil society

organizations.


Articulating public policy at different administrative levels

The Pacto pela Convivência com o Semiárido aims to point out

guidelines and bases for the formulation of a policy of coexistence with

the semiarid, considering aspects: economic, environmental, cultural,

social and scientific na technological.

“Seguro Safra”


Income Security to Farmers in case of Drought or Excess of Water

Established by Law No. 10420 of April 10, 2002; amended by Law 10,700 of July 9, 2003.

It is an action of is an initiative of the National Program for Strengthening of Family

Farming (Pronaf) that aims to ensure an income for a period.

It is given to the farmers of the semiarid of Brazil who lost their crops due to drought or

excess of water.

Crops Covered: beans, corn, rice, cassava and cotton.

"Seguro Safra”



Seguro Safra serves farmers in the municipalities located in the semiarid regions of

Brazil (Northeast, north of Espírito Santo, northern Minas Gerais, Jequitinhonha Valley,

Valley of Mucuri)

To be attended, farmers must have income of up to 1.5 minimum wages by month, and

cultivate rice, beans, cotton, cassava and /or corn, in areas from 0.6 to 10 ha.

"Seguro Safra"


Annually, all (federal and state governments, municipalities and farmers) contribute to a

fund that will be used to secure the resources needed to pay benefits in the municipalities

that have drought or excess of water.

The composition of the Seguro Safra Funds

Federal Government

State Government

Municipalities

Farmers

$ $Municipality “A” that suffered drought or excessof water


"Seguro Safra"


Steps of the Seguro Safra


Accession of the State

Accession of the Municipalities

Participation of the farmers

Application

Selection

Ratification

Accession

Payment of the Benefits

In case of drought or

excess of water

"Seguro Safra"


Payment of Benefits in Ceara State (2006-2009)


2006 2007 2008 2009Quantity of municipalities

7 124 26 135

Quantity of farmers

11,338 159,415 68,103 219,413

Values (R$1,00)

6,235,900 83,994,900 35,611,400 120,677,150

Obs.: rainy season quality

normal below normal

normal above normal

Documents

Towards a Ceara State Drought Policy - wamis.org · Ceara State Government - Brazil IMA – Municipality Watch Index Relief Programme Calculated since 2004, IMA is an index to measure