for New Zealand

2050 PATHWAYTowards a

A Discussion Paper for GLOBE-NZSEPTEMBER 2017

Paul YoungIndependent consultant

1

Executivesummary..................................................................................................................3

1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................7

1.1 Globalcontext:theParisAgreementandthe2050PathwaysPlatform..................7

1.2 Domesticcontext:GLOBE-NZandNetZeroinNewZealand....................................81.3 Scenarios,pathwaysandstrategies:conceptsandterminology..............................9

1.4 Purposeofthispaper.............................................................................................10

2 ScenariosfromNetZeroinNewZealand.......................................................................112.1 Innovative...............................................................................................................11

2.2 Resourceful.............................................................................................................12

2.3 NetZero2050.........................................................................................................12

2.4 Abroad-bandedindicativepathway:theconcept.................................................12

3 Developingsectoralemissionspaths.............................................................................13

3.1 Generalmethod.....................................................................................................13

3.2 Electricity................................................................................................................14

3.3 Transport................................................................................................................14

3.4 Otherfossilfuels.....................................................................................................17

3.5 Fugitiveemissions..................................................................................................17

3.6 Industrialprocessesandproductuse.....................................................................18

3.7 Agriculture..............................................................................................................18

3.8 Waste.....................................................................................................................20

3.9 Forestry..................................................................................................................20

4 Results............................................................................................................................21

4.1 Sectoralemissionspaths........................................................................................21

4.1.1 Energy.............................................................................................................21

4.1.2 Industrialprocessesandproductuse.............................................................22

4.1.3 Agriculture......................................................................................................26

4.1.4 Waste.............................................................................................................26

4.1.5 Forestry..........................................................................................................26

4.2 Grossandnetemissionspaths...............................................................................29

4.3 AnalysiswithrespecttoNewZealand’s2030target.............................................31

4.4 Beyond2050:gettingtoandsustainingnetzeroemissions..................................32

5 Discussionandrecommendations.................................................................................35

Appendix1:Listofkeydriversandassumptions...................................................................37

2

Figure1:Grossandnetemissionspaths..................................................................................6

Figure2:PathwaysmethodologydevelopedbytheAgriculturalTransformationPathways

Initiative...........................................................................................................................9

Figure3:Vivid'sscenariosandtheirkeycharacteristics........................................................11

Figure4:OverviewofVividEconomics'calculator.................................................................13

Figure5:ElectricitygenerationmixinResourcefulandInnovative.......................................15

Figure6:Batteryelectricvehicle(BEV)shareofnewlyregisteredvehiclesandtotalfleetfor

lightandheavyvehicles.................................................................................................16

Figure7:ElectrificationlevelofenergyendusesintheInnovativeandNetZero2050

scenarios........................................................................................................................16

Figure8:LivestocknumbersintheInnovativeandNetZero2050scenarios........................19

Figure9:Emissionspathsfortop-levelsectors......................................................................23

Figure10:Emissionspathsforenergysub-sectors................................................................24

Figure11:Emissionspathsforforestry..................................................................................25

Figure12:Indicativegrossandnetemissionspaths..............................................................29

Figure13:Netemissionspathto2070...................................................................................33

Figure14:Emissionsbysectorto2070..................................................................................34

Table1:Emissionsprofilesin1990,2014and2050.................................................................5

Table2:Comparisonofforestrycarbonaccountingmethods...............................................28

Table3:Totalgrossandnetemissionspaths.........................................................................30

Table4:Cumulativeemissionsundertheemissionspaths....................................................30

Table5:ListofkeydriversforeachsectorwithassumptionsusedbyVivid.........................37

3

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

UndertheParisAgreement,NewZealandhascommittedtobepartofaglobaleffortto

reachnetzerogreenhousegasemissionsinthesecondhalfofthecentury.In2016,GLOBE-

NZcommissionedeconomicsconsultancyVividEconomicstoconductastudyofNew

Zealand’spotentialtoachievethisgoaldomestically.Vivid’sreport,NetZeroinNewZealand:Scenariostoachievedomesticemissionneutralityinthesecondhalfofthecentury,wasreleasedinMarch2017.Itpresentsfourdistinctscenarios,assnapshotsintheyear

2050.Threeofthesescenarios–Resourceful,InnovativeandNetZero2050–putNew

Zealandontracktothenetzerogoal.

ThispaperbuildsonVivid’sworkbyexploringingreaterdetailwhatthetransitionmight

looklikebetweennowand2050.Usingasector-by-sectorbackcastingapproach,Ihave

soughttocreaterealistictransitionpathsconsistentwithVivid’sscenarios.Together,these

provideabroad-bandedindicativepathwaytowardsdomesticemissionsneutrality,withthe

boundariesdefinedbyResourcefulandNetZero2050.Table1showsthe2050emissions

profileofthosetwoscenarioscomparedwith2014.Thepathwayrangefornetemissionsin

2050is1.8–20.2MtCO2e.

Tofacilitatethiswork,Vividprovidedtheemissionscalculatortheydevelopedtocalculate

theemissionsoutcomesoftheassumptionsunderpinningtheirscenarios.Ianalysedthe

calculatorandVivid’sreporttoidentifythekeydriversofemissionsandcalculationmethods

usedineachsector.Ithendevelopedtrajectoriesforeachindividualdriverbetween2014

and2050,andmodifiedthecalculatoraccordingly.

Theresultingsectoralemissionspathsshowdistinctshapesandratesofchange.This

reflectsdifferentunderlyingfactorssuchasthekeydriversofemissions,currenttrends,and

timeframesfortechnologyadoption.Thesepathsdonotencompassthefullrangeof

possibilitiesforhowthetransitioncouldoccur;forexample,acceleratedordelayedaction

indifferentareas.

TheresultinggrossandnetemissionspathsareshowninFigure1.Bothpeakin2018and

fallthereafter.Thefastestrateofgrossemissionsreductionsoccursinthe2020s,with

assumedgrowthinadoptionofelectricvehiclesandtheintroductionamethanevaccineor

inhibitorsinagriculture.Relativeto2014,thepathsseegrossemissionsreduced10-20per

centby2030and30–53percentby2050.Thankstogrowthincarbonsequestrationfrom

forestry,netemissionscontinuetoreducerapidlyto2050.Relativeto2014,netemissions

are13-25percentlowerby2030and69–97percentlowerby2050.

UndertheParisAgreement,NewZealandhasseta2030emissionstargetof30percent

belowthe2005grossemissionslevel.Thetargetappliestonetemissionsusingthe

proposed“ModifiedKyoto”accountingmethodforforestrysequestrationandemissions.

Forcompliance,thistargetwillbeconvertedintoa“carbonbudget”forthe2021-2030

period.

Comparedtoaprovisionalcarbonbudgetof594MtCO2e,totalgrossemissionsforthe

2021–2030periodrangefrom729–774MtCO2eundertheemissionspathsshown.Totalnet

4

emissionsrangefrom584-629MtCO2e,suggestingthecarbonbudgetcouldbemet

domestically.However,duetodifferencesbetweentheforestryaccountingmethodusedby

VividandthemethodtheNewZealandGovernmentintendstoapplytothe2030target,the

netemissionsquantitiescannotbedirectlycomparedlikethis.

Thispaperalsoextendstheanalysisbeyond2050toexploreifandwhennetzeromightbe

achievedunderthedifferentscenariopaths(Figure1showstheemissionspathsto2070).

Undertheextendedsetofassumptionsused,neitherResourcefulnorInnovativewouldin

factreachnetzeroemissions.Thisisbecausemanycurrentemissionssources(suchaslight

vehiclesandlow-gradeheat)areclosetocompletelydecarbonisedbymid-centuryso

cannotyieldmeaningfulfurtherreductions,whileemissionsfromseveralothersources

(suchasnon-roadtransport)remainflatorgrowing.Duetothecombinedeffectofslowing

reductionsingrossemissionsanddecliningsequestrationfromforestry,netemissionsbegin

toriseagainfromaround2060.EventheNetZero2050scenariowouldonlymanageto

keepnetemissionsbelowzerotemporarily.Thishighlightsproblemswithheavyrelianceon

forestrysequestrationratherthanpermanentgrossemissionsreductions,andtheneedto

explorefurtherlong-termmitigationmeasures.

Theresultshereprovideabroad-bandedindicativepathwaytowardsdomesticemissions

neutrality,whichGLOBE-NZcoulduseforthebasisoffurtherconversationandanalysis.This

indicativepathwayservesasasoundandconsistentstartingpoint,butdoesnotspanthe

fullrangeofpossibilitiesforhowthetransitioncouldoccur.

IconcludewiththefollowingrecommendationstoGLOBE-NZ:

1. Forestrysequestrationestimatesshouldbereviewed.

2. Consideradditionalelementsbeyondemissionslevelsindefiningapathwayto

domesticemissionsneutrality.

3. Continuetoconsiderandexploreemissionsreductionopportunitiesgoingbeyond

thosefeaturedinVivid’sscenarios.

4. Explorethepotentialforinteractivetoolstoassistinfurtherdevelopmentand

communicationofapathwaytodomesticemissionsneutrality.

5

TABLE1:EMISSIONSPROFILESIN1990,2014AND2050

1990 20142050

Resourceful NetZero2050Energy Electricity 3.5 4.2 3.3 0.7

Transport 8.8 14.1 5.8 3.9

Otherfossilfuels 10.2 11.9 8.3 3.0

Fugitives 1.3 2.0 2.8 1.8

Sub-total 23.8 32.1 20.2 9.4Industry Mineral 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1

Chemical 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0

Metal 2.7 2.3 2.5 0.0

HFCs/solvents 0.1 1.6 0.3 0.3

Sub-total 3.6 5.2 4.2 1.4Agriculture Entericfermentation 26.3 28.6 18.7 14.3

Manuremanagement 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.9

Soils,liming,urea 7.3 9.7 8.8 9.5

Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Sub-total 34.4 39.6 28.5 24.7Waste Land 3.8 3.7 3.3 2.2

Water 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5

Sub-total 4.1 4.1 3.8 2.7

Grossemissions 65.8 81.1 56.6 38.3Ofwhichlonglived(CO2andN2O) 32.4 20.0

Forestry/LULUCF -28.9 -24.4 -36.4 -36.5

Netemissions 36.9 56.7 20.2 1.8Ofwhichlonglived(CO2andN2O) 3.7 20.2 -4.0 -16.5

Note: Allvaluesareroundedtoonedecimalplace,sototalsdonotallsumcorrectly.

6

FIGURE1:GROSSANDNETEMISSIONSPATHS

7

1 INTRODUCTION1.1 GLOBALCONTEXT:THEPARISAGREEMENTANDTHE2050PATHWAYS

PLATFORMTheworldhasbegunonajourneytoanetzeroemissionsfuturetoaddressthegravethreat

thatclimatechangeposestolifeonEarth.TheParisAgreement,nowratifiedby160

countriesincludingNewZealand,commitstheworldto“holdingtheincreaseintheglobal

averagetemperaturetowellbelow2°Cabovepre-industriallevelsandpursuingeffortsto

limitthetemperatureincreaseto1.5°Cabovepre-industriallevels”.Inordertomeetthis

globaltemperaturegoal,theAgreementaimsto“reachglobalpeakingofemissionsassoon

aspossible”andto“achieveabalancebetweenanthropogenicemissionsbysourcesand

removalsbysinksofgreenhousegasesinthesecondhalfofthiscentury”�

Creatinganetzeroemissionsworldmeanstransformationalchangetoglobalenergyand

foodsystems.Thisrequiresproactiveandcomprehensivelong-termplanningtowardsthe

endgoal.TheParisAgreementrecognisesthisneedinArticle4.19,whichstates:

AllPartiesshouldstrivetoformulateandcommunicatelong-termlowgreenhousegasemissiondevelopmentstrategies,mindfulofArticle2takingintoaccounttheircommonbutdifferentiatedresponsibilitiesandrespectivecapabilities,inthelightofdifferentnationalcircumstances.

Sofar,France,Benin,theUnitedStates,Mexico,GermanyandCanadahaveformally

communicatedlong-termstrategiesthroughtheUN.1NewZealandisexpectedtodosoby

2020.2

AtCOP22inMarrakechin2016,agroupofcountriesandotheractorslauncheda

complementaryinitiativecalledthe2050PathwaysPlatform.Thelaunchannouncement

describesitasfollows:3

Theplatformwillsupportcountriesseekingtodeveloplong-term,deepdecarbonizationstrategies,includingthroughthesharingofresources(finance,capacitybuilding),knowledgeandexperiences.Itwillalsobuildabroaderconstellationofcities,states,andcompaniesengagedinlong-termlow-emissionsplanningoftheirown,andinsupportofthenationalstrategies.Essentially,itwillbeaspaceforcollectiveproblem-solving.

2050pathwaysareawaytobackcastandextrapolatefromthelong-termgoalofreachingthebalancebetweenthesourcesandsinksofGHGemissions,andlookat

1http://unfccc.int/focus/long-term_strategies/items/9971.php

2NewZealandGovernment.2016.ParisAgreementNationalInterestAnalysis.Wellington:NewZealand

Government.3http://newsroom.unfccc.int/media/791675/2050-pathway-announcement-finalclean-3.pdf

8

thewaysinwhichwecangrowoureconomiesandbusinesses,andmeetourcitizensandcustomer’sneedswithintheconstraintsofthedeepGHGemissionreductionsbymainstreamingclimateactionswithinsocio-economicdevelopmentstrategies.

NewZealandislistedasoneofthe22countriesto“havestartedorbeabouttostarta

processofpreparinga2050pathway”.

1.2 DOMESTICCONTEXT:GLOBE-NZANDNETZEROINNEWZEALANDGLOBENewZealand(GLOBE-NZ)isacross-partyworkinggroupestablishedinOctober2015

thatinvolvesMembersofParliamentfromallparties.GLOBE-NZisachapteroftheGlobal

LegislatorsOrganisationforaBalancedEnvironment(GLOBE).Theinternational

organisationbringstogetherparliamentariansfromover80countries,withafocuson

implementinglawsinpursuitofsustainabledevelopment.GLOBE-NZ’spurposesinclude:

“Thepromotionofglobal,regionalandnationalpolicyprocessesforclimateand

environmentalprotection”;and“Thepromotionofacross-partydiscussionandcooperation

ontheenvironment,climateprotectionandnatureconservation,aswellassustainable

development.”4

GLOBE-NZcommissionedeconomicsconsultancyVividEconomics(referredtohenceforth

simplyas“Vivid”)toconductastudyofNewZealand’spotentialtoachievenetzero

emissions.Vivid’sreport,NetZeroinNewZealand:Scenariostoachievedomesticemissionneutralityinthesecondhalfofthecentury,wasreleasedinMarch2017.Thisreportis,in

Vivid’sownwords,“oneofthefirstattemptstoapplyscenarioanalysisacrosstheNew

Zealandeconomy,coveringbothlandandenergy,tohelpilluminatelong-termlow-emission

pathways”.Itidentifiesandpresentsanalysisonfourscenarios,threeofwhichare

consistentwiththegoalofnetzeroemissionsinthesecondhalfofthecentury.The

scenariosarepresentedassnapshotsintheyear2050,withthetrajectorybetweennow

andthenundefined.

InJuly2017,GLOBE-NZagreedonaStatementofCollaborativePurpose.Thisstatement

includesthefollowingnextstepstobuildonVivid’swork:

• Accept,asthebasisfordiscussionastotheirrespectivemerits,theInnovativeandResourcefulscenariosidentifiedforNewZealand;andtheNetZero2050scenarioasaseriousaspirationalgoal;

• Plantodevelop,throughfurtherexpertadvice,anindicativepathway(boundedbyquantitativeranges)towardsdomesticemissionsneutrality,havingregardtotheReport’sconclusionsandrecommendations;

• Onthebasisofsuchanindicativepathwayandatanappropriatetime,commenceadialoguewithinourgrouponpolicymeasures,withanappropriatecombinationofmarket,regulatoryandeducationalmeasures,toensureatimelyandjusttransitiontoanet-zerooralow-carboneconomyby2050.

4GLOBENewZealand.2017.StatementofCollaborativePurpose.

9

1.3 SCENARIOS,PATHWAYSANDSTRATEGIES:CONCEPTSANDTERMINOLOGY

Whatexactlyisa‘pathway’inthecontextofacountry’sclimatechangeresponse?Itmay

helptotryandclarifythisandotherkeytermsandconcepts.

‘Scenario’hasafairlypreciseandcommonlyheldmeaning.Vividadoptsthedefinitionused

bytheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeandothers:“aplausibledescriptionof

howthefuturemaydevelopbasedonacoherentandinternallyconsistentsetof

assumptionsaboutkeyrelationshipsanddrivingforces”.

‘Pathway’isamoreambiguousanddivergentterm.Generally,pathwaysfocusontransition

overtimeandmaycontaindynamicandadaptiveelements(whereasascenariotendstobe

staticandrigid).Apathwaymighthaveanumberofpotentialoutcomesdependingonhow

optionsdevelopovertime.Finally,whereasscenariostendtofocuson‘what’(tangible

changeswithinthesystemandtheconsequencesofthosechanges),pathwaystendtoalso

lookat‘how’(approachestodrivethedesiredchangesandmonitorprogress).

Therelationshipbetweenapathwayandastrategyisunclear;itseemsthatthesetermsare

somewhatoverlappingandoftenusedinterchangeably.

TheAgriculturalTransformationPathwaysInitiative(ATPi)developstoolkitsforandworks

withgovernmentstobuildnationalpathwaysalignedwiththeSustainableDevelopment

Goals.5Figure2isadiagramillustratingtheATPigeneralmethodologicalframework.Thisis

aniterativeprocesstodevelopapathwayformovingfromthepresenttoadesiredfuture.

Scenarioanalysisplaysakeyroleinthisprocess.

FIGURE2:PATHWAYSMETHODOLOGYDEVELOPEDBYTHEAGRICULTURALTRANSFORMATIONPATHWAYSINITIATIVE

Source: Schwoob,M.-H.etal.2016.

5Schwoob,M.-H.etal.2016.AgriculturalTransformationPathwaysInitiative-Summary,IDDRI&Rothamsted

Research.

10

BasedonabriefassessmentoftheATPimethodologyandsomeofthelong-termlow

emissiondevelopmentstrategiesthathavebeencommunicatedtotheUN,a2050pathway

forNewZealandmighteitherincludeorsitalongsideelementssuchas:

• Goals;

• Guidingprinciples;

• Targetsandmilestones(e.g.sectoralemissionstarget);

• Keyindicators(potentiallyintheformofadashboard);

• Identificationofenablingconditions(e.g.technologydevelopments)andkey

decisionpoints;

• Identificationofbarrierstoandleversforchange;

• Alearningandevaluationprocess.

Afurtherideaworthconsiderationistodeveloptransformativepathwaysforeachsector,

withinanoverarchingframeworkandnationalpathway.6Suchsectoralpathwayscould

combineemissionstargetswithothergoalsandprinciplestoformabroadervisionand

integratedstrategy.

1.4 PURPOSEOFTHISPAPER

Vivid’sNetZeroinNewZealandreportprovidesafoundationfordevelopinganational2050pathway.ThispaperbuildsonVivid’sworkbyexploringingreaterdetailwhatthetransition

mightlooklikebetweenNewZealandtodayandthescenariosfor2050.

Themainobjectivewastodevelopabroad-bandedindicativepathwaythatspansthethree

scenariosthatplaceNewZealandontracktonetzeroemissionsinthesecondhalfofthe

century.Acknowledgingtheabovediscussionontherangeofelementsthatmayformpart

ofa2050pathway,thispaperismorenarrowlyfocusedontheemissionspath.

Thepaperbeginswithabriefoverviewofthethreescenariosused.Itthendetails,sectorby

sector,themethodandassumptionsusedtodevelopplausibletrajectoriesforvarious

driversofemissionsbetween2014and2050.Itthenpresentsandanalysesindicative

emissionspathsbysectorandforNewZealandasawhole.Itconcludeswith

recommendationsforfurtherwork.

6Germany’sClimateActionPlan2050usesanapproachlikethis.

Transformationpathwaysdonotonlyprovideaggregateendtargets(suchasaverageemissionsreduction),butalsotranslateintoaconcreteimageofwhatfutureactivityandsocietymightlooklike.Theconsistencyanddesirabilityofsuchavisioncanthenbediscussedandquestioned,andadetailedsequenceoffeasibleactionsdeveloped.–AgriculturalTransformPathwaysInitiative(2016)

11

2 SCENARIOSFROMNETZEROINNEWZEALAND

VividEconomicsdevelopedfourscenariosforitsreport,NetZeroinNewZealand.AsFigure3shows,thesedifferalongtwokeydimensions:thedegreeoftechnologicalimprovement,

andland-usepatterns.Togetontracktonetzeroemissionsinthesecondhalfofthe

century,itisnecessarytomovetowardsthetop-rightcornerofthisdiagram.Asitsname

makesclear,theOffTrackNZscenariodoesnotmeetthatconditionanditistherefore

excludedfromfurtheranalysisinthispaper.

2.1 INNOVATIVE

TheInnovativescenarioenvisagesafuturewheretechnologicaladvancesintheenergyand

agriculturesectorsarestrongandNewZealandtakesmajoradvantageofthesethroughfast

adoption.Thekeychangesitseesby2050include:widespreadelectrificationofbothand

lightandheavyvehicles,andofheatandindustrialenergyuse;analmostcompletely

renewableelectricitysystem,aidedbyimprovementsinenergystorageandgridflexibility;

substantialfreightmodeshiftfromroadtorail;energyefficiencygains;lowemissions

farmingpractices;andthesuccessfuldevelopmentandadoptionofamethanevaccinefor

ruminantlivestock.Alongsidethis,adiversificationinlandusepatternsoccursinfavourof

moreforestryandhorticulture,withareductioninstocknumberscomparedwithtoday.

FIGURE3:VIVID'SSCENARIOSANDTHEIRKEYCHARACTERISTICS

Source: VividEconomics,2017.

12

2.2 RESOURCEFUL

InResourceful,technologicalimprovementsareslowerandmoremodest.Comparedwith

Innovative,lessprogressismadeinseveralareasincludingvehicleandheatelectrification,

renewableelectricity,andfreightmodeshift.Someofthemitigationopportunitiesin

Innovative–includingthemethanevaccineandelectrificationofhightemperatureheat–

arenotavailableatallby2050.Tocompensateforthis,Resourcefulseesamoreradical

shifttowardsforestry,plantingthemaximumamountoflandgenerallydeemedsuitableby

2050.However,livestocknumbersarealsohigherinResourcefuldue–enabledbyahigher

stockingratefordairy.

2.3 NETZERO2050

NetZero2050combinesthetechnologicaladvancesofInnovativewiththelanduse

patternsofResourceful.Inaddition,itassumescarbonneutralityin,ortheclosureof,some

emissions-intensiveindustries(steelandaluminummanufacturingandpetroleumrefining).7

Togetherthismakesahigherambitionscenariothatdrivesnetemissionsclosetozeroby

2050.NetZero2050wasnotconsideredindetailbyVivid,andthereportdidnotprovide

emissionsdata,givenitssimilaritiestoelementsoftheotherscenarios.

2.4 ABROAD-BANDEDINDICATIVEPATHWAY:THECONCEPT

Inthispaper,ItaketheResourcefulandNetZero2050scenariostodefinetheboundsofa

“broad-bandedindicativepathway”towardsnetzeroemissionsinthesecondhalfofthe

century.Theanalysisandgraphsinthefollowingchapterstreateachscenarioindividually,

butconceptuallywecanthinkoftheseasspanningarangeofpotentialpathsinbetween

theextremes.8

7Theindustryclosureassumptionwasalsousedasasensitivitycasetocreate“lowindustry”variationsofthe

otherscenarios.8Onepointofcautionisthatifweweretocombinethehigherendofthegrossemissionsrange(Resourceful)

withthelowerendoftheforestryrange(Innovative),thiswouldcreateanewscenariowithnetemissions

outsideoftherangespannedbyVivid’sscenarios.Thisneedstobetakenintoaccountifcombiningnumbers

fromdifferentsectors.

13

3 DEVELOPINGSECTORALEMISSIONSPATHS

InordertodevelopcredibleemissionspathsconsistentwithVivid’sscenarios,itisnecessary

toanalyseeachsectorindividually.Eachsectorhasdistinctcharacteristics,suchasthekey

driversofemissions;technologicalandsocioeconomicdynamics;andtypicalassetlifetimes

andturnoverrates.Thesefactorscanaffectthetimingofemissionsreductionsandthusthe

shapeofthecurvebetweennowand2050.

Thischapterpresentsthegeneralmethodusedtodevelopsectoralpathsconsistentwith

Vivid’sscenarios,followedbythespecificapproachusedforeachsector.

3.1 GENERALMETHOD

Tofacilitatethiswork,theVividteamprovidedthecalculatortooltheydevelopedto

calculatetheemissionsoutcomesoftheassumptionsunderpinningtheirscenarios.The

calculatorisdescribedintheNetZeroinNewZealandtechnicalreportandsummarisedin

theschematicbelow(Figure4).

Ianalysedthecalculatorandthetechnicalreporttoidentifythekeydrivers9andcalculation

methodsusedineachsector.Ithendevelopedtrajectoriesforeachindividualdriver

between2014and2050,aimingtobeasrealisticaspossible.Thiswasdonecasebycase

dependingon:thelogicandexternalsourcesusedbyVivid;knowledgeofthedynamicsof

thedriverinquestion;andinformationonrecenttrends.Finally,Imodifiedthecalculator

spreadsheetaccordinglytoproducethecompleteemissionstimeseriesforeachsector.

FIGURE4:OVERVIEWOFVIVIDECONOMICS'CALCULATOR

Source: VividEconomics,2017.

9Someexamplesofdriversarelivestocknumbers(inagriculture),fuelefficiency(intransport)and

electrificationlevel(intransportandheat).Table5listsalldriversalongwithVivid’sscenarioassumptions.

14

3.2 ELECTRICITY

Thekeydriversofelectricityemissionsare:electricitydemand,generationmix,andthe

emissionsintensityofgeothermalgeneration.Table5showsVivid’sassumptionsforthese

andallotherdriversindetail.

Vividsourcedthe2050generationmixinResourcefuldirectlyfromoneoftheElectricity

DemandandGenerationScenariospublishedbyMBIE.10Theyconstructedthegeneration

mixinInnovativetobesimilar,withthemaindifferencebeingfurtherreductionsincoaland

gasreplacedwithwind.TomaintainconsistencywiththesourcesofVivid’sassumptions,in

ResourcefulIusedthecompletetimeseriesfromMBIE’sscenario.11InInnovative,I

modifiedthisbyeliminatingcoalgenerationfrom2023andreducingthegasgeneration

proportionlinearlyfrom2025to2035.Theresultinggenerationmixesto2050areshownin

Figure5.

AnnualelectricitydemandwascalculatedasdescribedinTable5.Forgeothermalemissions

intensity,andadditionalenergyefficiencyimprovementsinInnovative,Iusedanannual

rateofchangeasperVivid’sdescription.

3.3 TRANSPORT

Thetransportsectorcoversalldomestictransportation(road,rail,seaandair)butexcludes

internationalflightsandshipping.Thekeydriversoftransportemissionsare:traveldemand,

vehicleormodeefficiencies,modalshift,andvehicleelectrification.

Formostofthesedrivers,Iusedafixedannualpercentagerateofchange.Forfreightmode

shift,Iusedalineartrajectory.

Vehicleelectrificationwasmodelleddifferently.Idevelopedasimplefleetmodeltocreate

plausibletrajectoriesforbatteryelectricvehicle(BEV)uptakeconsistentwithVivid’s

assumedlevelsin2050.Themodelassumedfixedannualquantitiesofvehiclesenteringand

exitingthefleet,calibratedtoaveragevaluesoverthelast10-15years.Foreachscenario,I

fittedanidealized“S-curve”fortheEVmarketshare(ofvehiclesenteringthefleet)inorder

tomatchtheapproximatemarketsharein2016andtheassumedfleetelectrificationlevel

in2050.12

Thismodelisnecessarilysimple,butIwouldexpectittogiverealisticresultsforthelight

vehiclefleet.However,itislessrealisticforheavyvehiclesandresultsshouldonlybetaken

asbroadlyindicative.13Also,Ihavenotconsidereddisruptivescenarioswhere–dueto

changesintechnologies,behavioursandpolicies–vehicleturnoveracceleratesand/ornew

10GlobalLowCarbonscenarioisthescenarioused.

11Imodifiedthisslightlybyassumingafixedpercentageofgasgenerationfrom2035onward.

12Strictlyspeakingthisisatravel-weightedelectrificationlevel,oritassumesthatallvehiclesaretravellingthe

samedistanceeachyear.13Amorerealisticuptakemodelforheavyvehicleswould,forexample,disaggregatethefleetbysizeand/or

typicalusagecycle,toidentifythetypesofvehiclesmorereadilyelectrified.

15

ownershipmodelsdominate.Themodelthereforerepresentsaconservativeviewof

change.

TheresultingtrajectoriesarepresentedinFigure6.Thisshowsthat,underthestated

assumptions,alllightvehiclesenteringthefleetwouldneedtobebatteryelectricsby

around2035inInnovativeandaround2040inResourceful.Allheavyvehiclesenteringthe

fleetwouldalsoneedtobeelectricbefore2045inInnovative(subjecttotheabove

caveats).

FIGURE5:ELECTRICITYGENERATIONMIXINRESOURCEFUL(TOP)ANDINNOVATIVE(BOTTOM)

16

FIGURE6:BATTERYELECTRICVEHICLE(BEV)SHAREOFNEWLYREGISTEREDVEHICLESANDTOTALFLEETFORLIGHTVEHICLES(TOP)ANDHEAVYVEHICLES(BOTTOM)

FIGURE7:ELECTRIFICATIONLEVELOFENERGYENDUSESINTHEINNOVATIVEANDNETZERO2050SCENARIOS

17

3.4 OTHERFOSSILFUELS

“Otherfossilfuels”encompassesallcombustionoffuelsforenergyoutsideoftheelectricity

andtransportsectors.Thevastmajorityofthisistoproduceheatforuseinbuildingsand

industry.Thekeydriversofemissionsare:energydemand(includingefficiencygains);

electrification;andfuelswitchingtobiomass.

AnnualenergydemandiscalculatedusingabaselinescenariofromMBIEandfeedbacks

withothersectors,asdescribedinTable5.Ihaveusedfixedannualenergyefficiency

improvementrateswhereapplicable.

Ihaveassumedalinearincreaseintheelectrificationlevel,butwithdifferentstartdatesfor

thedifferentenergyenduses.Thelevelbeginsincreasingimmediatelyforlow-gradeheat,

from2020formedium-gradeheat,andfrom2030forhigh-gradeheatandmobilemotive

power.Figure7showstheresultingelectrificationpathsinInnovative.14

TheseassumptionsaimtoreflectVivid’sassessmentthatelectrificationofhigh-gradeheat

andoff-roadvehiclesiscurrentlyhighcostanddependentontechnologybreakthroughs.

Ideally,thepathswouldtakeintoaccountinformationsuchasassetlifetimesand

replacementtimetables.Amoresophisticatedtreatmentwasnotpossibleduetotime

constraints,andwouldlikelybechallengingduetoalackofdatainthisarea.

Vividassumedthatuptakeofbioenergyistargetedsolelyatmedium-gradeheatinthepulp,

paper,woodandagriculturalprocessingindustries.HereIhaveassumedlineargrowthin

uptakefrom2014.

3.5 FUGITIVEEMISSIONS

FugitiveemissionsinNewZealandresultmainlyfromnaturalgasproductionand

distribution,useofgeothermalenergyandcoalmining.Thekeydriversaregeothermal

energyuseandemissionsintensity;andlevelsofnaturalgasproduction,oilrefiningand

coalmining.

Geothermalenergyuseiscalculatedfromotherassumptions,andIuseaconstantannual

rateofemissionsintensityimprovement.

Emissionsfromoilrefiningandcoalminingarescaledwiththelevelofindustrialactivity

(seeSection3.6).Coalminingisassumedtobelinkedtoiron&steelproduction.

Vividassumedthatemissionsfromnaturalgasproductionscaledwiththebaselinenon-

electricalenergydemand.Thisseemstoignorethesubstantialelectrificationofheatinthe

scenarios,whichwouldpresumablyreducenaturalgasusagebelowthebaselinelevel.

However,IhavekeptVivid’sassumptionandextendedthisoverthecompletetimeseries

14Aluminiummanufacturingandironandsteelmanufacturingarenotshownastheseareheldconstantat

100%and0%electrification,respectively.

18

3.6 INDUSTRIALPROCESSESANDPRODUCTUSE

Thissectorcoversallnon-combustionemissionsintheproductionofminerals(e.g.cement

andlime),chemicals(e.g.ammoniaandmethanol),andmetals(e.g.aluminium,ironand

steel).Italsoincludesuseofindustrialgases(mainlyhydrofluorocarbons,HFCs)as

refrigerantsandsolvents.Thekeydriversofemissionsarelevelsofindustrialactivity,

processefficiency,andlevelofHFCuse.

Vividassumedthatmineralproductionscaleswithpopulationgrowth,whileproductionof

chemicalsandmetalsscaleswithbaselinenon-electricalenergydemand.Iextendedthe

sameassumptionoverthewholetimeseries.

Thechemicalandmetalindustriesareassumedtoceaseoperatingsometimebefore2050in

NetZero2050(andinthe“lowindustry”variationsoftheotherscenarios).Thetimingof

potentialclosuresiscompletelyunknown,buthereIhaveassumedthisdoesnotoccur

before2030.Ihaveusedasimplelinearphaseoutofactivityintheaffectedindustries

between2030and2050.Inreality,thetrajectorywouldbe“lumpy”givenwearedealing

withasmallnumberofreasonablylargefirms.Thelinearphaseoutshouldbetakenasa

stylisedorsmoothedapproximation.

OnHFCs,NewZealandisoneof197countriesthatsigneduptophasethesedown

significantlyundertheKigaliAmendmenttotheMontrealProtocol.InMay2017,theNew

ZealandGovernmentproposedandconsultedonadetailedphase-downtimetablefrom

2019to2037tobesetinregulation.15Ihaveusedthisexacttimetable,withalinear

extensionafter2037tomeetVivid’s2050value.

3.7 AGRICULTURE

Thekeydriversofagriculturalemissionsare:livestocknumbers,productionperanimal,and

emissionsintensityimprovementsthroughbetterpracticeandadoptionofnew

technologies.16

Theagriculturesectorhasundergoneverysignificantchangesoverrecentdecades,ascan

beseeninthechangeinlivestocknumbers.Since1995,sheepandbeefcowpopulations

havefallenbyover40%andover30%respectively,whilethedairycowpopulationhas

grownbyaround60%.ThereductionindairycownumbersinVivid’sscenariosisthereforea

significantreversalofthepresenttrend.

Totrytoreflecttheinertiabehindthegrowthindairycownumbers,Ifittedcurvesthat

smoothlytransitionfromlineargrowthtoanexponentialdecline.Thetimingandmagnitude

ofthepeakdependsontheinitialgrowthrate(estimatedat3.3%)andthescenarios’2050

values.

15MinistryfortheEnvironment.2017.NewZealand’sphasedownofhydrofluorocarbonstoratifytheKigali

AmendmenttotheMontrealProtocolandassociatedsupportingmeasures:Consultationdocument.Wellington:MinistryfortheEnvironment.16Inthecalculator,stockingratedoesnotaffecttheemissionsfromagriculture,asstocknumbersarefixed(it

onlyaffectslandavailableforforestry).

19

ThelivestocknumbertrajectoriesforInnovativeareshowninFigure8,alongwithhistorical

datasince1990.Here,dairycownumberspeakataround7.7millionin2024(a15%

increasefrom2014).InResourceful,thepeakisslightlyhigherandlater(7.9millionin

2026).Ifaslowerrateofreductionweredesired,thiswouldrequireanearlierand/orlower

peak.

Forsheepandbeefpopulations,theaveragerateofreductionimpliedbyVivid’s2050

assumptionsisactuallyslowerthanwhathasoccurredoverthelastfivetotenyears.I

thereforesimplyusedalinearreductionfrom2014to2050.

AsVivid’sscenariosandcalculatortoolarecalibratedtoa2014baseyear,Ihaveoptedto

projectforwardfrom2014forconsistency.Morerecentdataarenowavailableforlivestock

numbers;IhaveincludedtheseinFigure8.Dairycownumbersfellby3.2%in2015dueto

droughtandwerestill1.2%lowerin2016comparedto2014.Sheepandbeefnumbersare

alsotrackingbelowallscenariotrajectories.Wecannotdeducemuchfromvolatileshort-

termmovementslikethis.However,inthewidercontext,includingthegrowing

acknowledgementofenvironmentallimitsondairyfarming,thesetrajectoriesmaybe

conservative.

Forimprovementsinproductivityandemissionsintensity,Ihavesimplyassumedlinear

changebetween2014and2050,exceptinthecaseofamethanevaccineorinhibitor.Ihave

assumedthatthesetechnologiesbecomeavailableandarephasedinfrom2020,reaching

themaximumadoptionratein2030.ThisisthesameassumptionusedbyReisingerand

ClarkinthestudyonwhichVividbaseditsagriculturescenarios.17

FIGURE8:LIVESTOCKNUMBERSINTHEINNOVATIVEANDNETZERO2050SCENARIOS

17Reisinger,A.andH.Clark.2016.ModellingAgriculture’sContributiontoNewZealand’sContributiontothe

Post-2020Agreement.Wellington:MinistryforPrimaryIndustries.

20

3.8 WASTE

Wastesectoremissionsarisefrommunicipalsolidwaste,constructionanddemolition

waste,unmanagedlandfills(includingfarmdumps),andwastewater.Thekeydriversare:

population;wastequantityanddiversionrates;andemissionsintensities(accountingfor

methanecapture).

IusedannualpopulationprojectionsfromStatisticsNZ,andlinearchangeinallotherdrivers

exceptforemissionsintensity.Wasteemissionshavebeensteadilydecreasing,thanksin

largeparttotherateofmethanecaptureatmunicipallandfillsdoublingsince2005.18Using

alinearreductioninemissionsintensityfrom2014toVivid’s2050valuesledtoashort-term

increaseinwasteemissionsinResourceful,whichseemsunlikelytooccur.Instead,I

assumedthatemissionsintensityreducedby3%perannumupuntilthescenario’s2050

assumptionwasreached,fromwhichpointonitwasheldconstant.

3.9 FORESTRY

Forestrysequesterscarboninthetreesandonthelandwheretheyaregrowing.If

harvested,someofthesequesteredcarbonremainsstoredinharvestedwoodproducts

(HWPs).Emissionsoccurupondeforestationorharvest,andovertimeasHWPsareburntor

disposedof.19Generally,Iusethesimpleterm‘forestryemissions’torefertothenetsumof

emissionsandsequestration.20Inthescenariosconsidered,forestryemissionsarealways

netnegative.

Thekeydriversofforestryemissionsare:plantingratesofexoticandnativespecies;

harvestinganddeforestation;andthemixofend-usesfromharvestedwood(e.g.hardwood

products,paperandbiofuels).

Forestryemissionsinagivenyear,suchas2050,dependontheamountandtimingof

plantingoverthelastseveraldecades.Therefore,unlikeinothersectors,Vividdeveloped

specifictrajectoriesfornewplantingsandforproductionofHWPs,andcalculatedannual

emissionsto2100.However,Vivid’scalculationexcludedsequestrationfromforests

establishedbefore2015.Underthechosenaccountingmethod(“averaging”),thismakesno

differencetoreportedforestryemissionsin2050,butitdoesaffecttheearlieryears.To

addressthis,Iextendedtheforestrycalculationtostartfrom1990,makingitsuitabletouse

forthewholetimeseries.

Carbonaccountingforforestryiscomplexand–particularlyforHWPs–subjectto

considerableuncertainty.Multipledifferentaccountingmethodsexist,andthechoicecan

havealargeimpactonreportedemissionsvaluesinaparticularyear.Theseaccounting

issuesarediscussedfurtherinBox1onp.27.

18Calculatedfromnationalgreenhousegasinventorydata.

19HWPsaremodelledusingadecayfunction.

20Sequestrationisreferredtoas“removals”innationalgreenhousegasinventoryreports.

21

4 RESULTS

4.1 SECTORALEMISSIONSPATHS

Thesectoralemissionspathsarepresentedinthegraphsthatfollowonpages23–25.Figure

9showsemissionspathsforthetop-levelsectors,exceptforforestry.Figure10shows

emissionspathsforthesub-sectorswithinenergy.Figure11showsemissionspathsfor

forestry.

Notethat:

• The“lowindustry”scenariovariationsarelabelledwithan“L”andshownwith

dashedlinesingraphs;

• IngraphswherethelineforInnovativeisnotvisible,itisidenticaltoNetZero2050;

• Theblackcrossesshowemissionsin2014and2015accordingtothe2017national

inventory(publishedafterVivid’sreport).Duetoongoingrevisionofdataand

updatestomethodology,the2014valuesdifferfromthepreviousyear’sinventory

insomecases.

4.1.1 ENERGY

Totalemissionsfromtheenergysectorgrowslightlyto2018andthenbegintofall.Thepace

ofreductionquickensaround2023andthegapbetweenResourcefulandInnovative/Net

Zero2050beginstoemerge.Thereisalargespreadby2050,withenergyemissionsinNet

Zero2050aroundhalfwhattheyareinResourceful.

Figure10providesmoreinsightonthechangeshappeningwithintheenergysector.

Electricity21

Electricityemissionsexhibitashort-termincreaseduetoasurgeinfossilgenerationfrom

2016–19,beforefalling.22TheydonotfallfarinResourceful,andinfactbegintogrowagain

after2025asprogressinthegenerationmixslowsandthenstallsat91%renewable.In

Innovative,emissionscontinuetofalluntilthegenerationmixreaches98%renewable,

assumedtohappenin2035.

Transport

Inallscenarios,transportemissionsplateauuntilaround2020andbeginreducingvisibly

afterthat.Therateofreductionbeginstoslowafterthepointwhenallvehiclesenteringthe

fleetareelectric(around2035and2040forInnovativeandResourcefulrespectively).

Emissionsfromheavyvehiclesdonotpeakuntilaround2030inInnovativeand2040in

Resourceful.In2050,combinedfreightemissions(fromheavyvehicles,railandsea

transport)areonly16%lowerthanin2014underInnovative,and21%higherunder

21Notethatbyconvention,emissionsfromgeothermalgenerationarereportedunderfugitiveemissions

ratherthanelectricity.22TheseprojectionsaretakenfromascenariopublishedbyMBIE(seeSection3.2).

22

Resourceful.Emissionsfromdomesticairtravelareapproximatelyflatinallcasesdespite

strongdemandgrowth(consistentwithrecenttrends).

Otherfossilfuels

Emissionsfromheatandotherfossilfuelcombustionalsoplateauuntilaround2020before

startingtofall.Reductionscomemostlyfromtheagriculturalprocessingindustriesin

Resourceful–especiallydairy,whichisclosetodecarbonisedby2050.InInnovative,there

arestrongerreductionsacrossallindustrycategories–particularlyinpetroleumand

chemicals,althoughthisisstillthelargestemitterin2050.InNetZero2050,theadditional

emissionsreductionsfrom2030–50areduetotheclosureofpetroleumandchemicals,and

primarymetalmanufacturingindustries.23

Fugitiveemissions

Fugitiveemissions(whichincludethosefromgeothermalelectricitygeneration)continueto

growoutto2050inboththeResourcefulandInnovativescenarios.Hencewhilethesearea

smallproportionofenergyemissionstoday,theybecomemoresignificantovertimein

thesescenarios(makinguproughly15-20%oftotalenergyemissionsin2050).Thegrowth

comesalmostentirelyfromincreaseduseofgeothermalenergy,whileemissionsfromoil&

gasandcoalminingremainsteady.InInnovative,assumedimprovementsintheemissions

intensityofgeothermalgenerationreducethegrowthsignificantly,butthereisstillanet

increase.InNetZero2050,additionalreductionscomefromclosureofoilrefiningandcoal

mines.

4.1.2 INDUSTRIALPROCESSESANDPRODUCTUSE

Theindustrialprocessesandproductuseemissionspathsarenearlyidenticalfor

ResourcefulandInnovative.Emissionsplateaufortherestofthisdecade,thenreduce

throughthe2020s,beforeslowlycreepingupagainafter2035.

Thereductionsinthissectorareentirelyfromthephaseoutofhydrofluorocarbongases

(HFCs)usedasrefrigerants.Processemissionsfromaluminium,steelandchemical

productionarevirtuallyflat,whileemissionsfrommineralproduction(mostlycementand

lime)growwithpopulation(35%growthto2050).

InNetZero2050,theclosureofmetalandchemicalindustriesleadstoadrasticemissions

reduction.Toreiterate,inrealitythiswouldhappenwithabruptstepchanges,unlikethe

smoothemissionpathusedhere.

23AsdiscussedinSection3.6,Ihaveusedasimplelineardecreasefrom2030–50torepresenttheindustry

closures.

23

FIGURE9:EMISSIONSPATHSFORTOP-LEVELSECTORS

24

FIGURE10:EMISSIONSPATHSFORENERGYSUB-SECTORS

25

FIGURE11:EMISSIONSPATHSFORFORESTRY

26

4.1.3 AGRICULTURE

Agriculturalemissionscontinuerisingto2020onthebackoffurthergrowthinthenational

dairyherd.Atthispoint,thephase-inofamethanevaccineorinhibitorisassumedtobegin

(seeSection3.7),causingemissionstopeakinspiteofthedairyherdstillgrowing.24In

Innovative,theadoptionofthevaccineleadstoespeciallyrapidemissionsreductions

throughthe2020s.Bothscenariosthenseeroughlylinearemissionsreductionsafter2030.

Thescenariospreadin2050ismuchsmallerherethanintheenergysector.

Theemissionsreductionsineitherscenariocomealmostentirelyfromentericfermentation.

Reductionsinnitrousoxideemissionsfromanimalwastearepartiallyoffsetbyhigher

emissionsfromhorticulture(forwhichlandusedoublesinResourcefulandquadruplesin

Innovative).Byfarmtype,theshareofemissionsfromdairyfarmingincreasesintheshort-

term,butfallsbacktoasimilarleveltotodayby2050.

4.1.4 WASTE

WasteistheonesectorinwhichNewZealand’semissionsarecurrentlyonadownward

trend.Thiscontinuesintheemissionspaths,thoughtherateofreductionactuallyslows

comparedtorecentyears(eveninInnovative).EmissionsareclosetoflatinResourceful.

Partofthereasonisthatreductionsinsolidwasteemissionsarepartiallyoffsetbyan

increasefromwastewater.Wastewateremissionshavebeennearlyflatforthelast20

years,sothegrowththatoccursinthescenariosisquestionable.

Inbothscenarios,moreoftheemissionsreductionscomefromunmanagedwastesitesthan

frommunicipalwaste.Thelatteraccountsforonly22%oftotalsolidwasteemissionsin

2014,reducingto13%in2050inInnovative.

4.1.5 FORESTRY

Tounderstandtheforestryemissionspaths,itisimportanttounderstandtheaccounting

methodthatVividused.ThisdiffersfromthemethodusedinNewZealand’sgreenhousegas

inventory,whichiswhythereisalargedifferencebetweentheinventoryvaluesand

calculatedvaluesinFigure11.ThemainissuesaroundaccountingareaddressedinBox1

below.

ThetwolowerpanelsinFigure11showtheemissionscontributionsfrominsitusequestrationandfromharvestedwoodproducts(HWPs)forthedifferentscenarios.The

HWPshaveadramaticoscillatingimpact:peakharvestingratesleadtolargenegative

spikes,followedbyperiodsofnetpositiveemissionswherecarbonlossesfromtheexisting

poolofHWPsexceedthecarbongainsfromnewadditions.AsdiscussedinBox1,these

extremevariationsarecausedbythefixedharvestageassumptioninthemodel,which

Vividcompensatedforbyreportingthe2040–59averagefor2050.Forconsistencywith

Vivid,Iuseda20-yearrollingaverage,shownbytheblacklinesinthegraphs.These

24Withouteitherofthesetechnologies,thepeakwouldnotoccuruntilaround2025whencownumberspeak.

27

averagedpathsarepresentedside-by-sideinthetoppanelofFigure11.Notethatthese

graphsgoto2070.

Theresultisthatinbothscenarios,totalsequestrationremainsrelativelyflatto2040with

somefluctuations(thereisagradualdeclineoverallinInnovative).Afterthis,sequestration

soarstoapeakaround2055,beforedeclining.ImplicationsofthisarediscussedinSection

4.4.

Box1:Forestrycarbonaccounting

Carbonaccountingforforestryiscomplexandmultipleaccountingmethodsexist.These

differentmethodscanleadtolargedifferencesinreportedemissionsinaparticularyear.

Table2comparestheaccountingmethodthatVividusedwiththetwocurrently-used

accountingmethods(GHGInventoryaccountingandKyotoaccounting)andthemethodthe

GovernmentintendstoapplytoNewZealand’s2030target(“ModifiedKyoto”).Vivid

combinedelementsoftheModifiedKyotoandGHGInventorymethods:theyusedan

averagingapproachforsequestrationonforestland,butaccountedforharvestedwood

products(HWPs)separatelyusingreal-timeaccountingandincludingHWPsfromallforests

(notjustpost-1989forestland).

Vividalsoaveragedthetotalemissionsovera20-yearperiodinthefigurestheypresented

for2050.Thisisasensiblesolutiontoproblemsassociatedwithusingafixedharvestagein

theirmodel.ThatisanunrealisticassumptiongiventheirregularageprofileofNew

Zealand’sforestsanditleadstolargevarianceintheyear-on-yearemissionsestimatesfor

HWPs.Usinga20-yearaverageapproximatesamorerealisticharvestingregime.

Duetothedifferencesinaccountingmethods,cautionisrequiredincomparingtheforestry

emissionsestimatesinVivid’sreporttovaluesinthenationalgreenhousegasinventory.The

sameapplieswhencomparingtheresultstoNewZealand’s2030target.TheGovernment

hasnotreleaseddetailedinformationonitsintendedaccountingmethodology,which

makesanyassessmentinrelationtothe2030targetdifficultanduncertain.25

Furthertotheaccountingmethod,anotherissuewiththeestimatesistheparametersused

inthecarbonmodel.Ofparticularimportancearethecarbonyieldtables,whichestimate

thecarbonsequesteredeachyearafteraforestisplanted.VividreliedupontheMinistryfor

PrimaryIndustries’defaultcarbontablesforEmissionsTradingSchemeparticipants.

However,theMinistryfortheEnvironmentusesdifferenttablesinitsnationalinventory

25Young,P.andG.Simmons.2016.CooktheBooks.Wellington:MorganFoundation.

28

calculationswhichhavesignificantlyhighersequestrationvalues.26Thisisanotherreasonto

becautiouscomparingtheresultshereandfromVivid’sreportwithothersources.

TABLE2:COMPARISONOFFORESTRYCARBONACCOUNTINGMETHODS

GHGInventoryaccounting

Kyotoaccounting NZ’sproposedaccountingmethodfor2030target

Vivid’saccountingmethod

Baseyear Includesemissions

andsequestration

fromallforest

land.

1990baseyear:Post-1989forestland

(convertedafter1989)

treatedasperGHG

Inventoryaccounting.

Pre-1990forestland

treateddifferently(see

below).

1990baseyear.(Distinction

becomesirrelevantwithaveraging

approach.)

Harvestcycle

Real-timeemissionsaccounting:Carbonmodel

designedtotrack

annualemissions

andsequestration

inrealtime.

Real-timeaccounting

forpost-1989forest

land.Pre-1990forest

effectivelytreatedas

steady-state,unless

deforestation(i.e.land

usechange)occurs.27

Averagingapproach:Allforestlandtreatedassteady-stateoncethe

“long-termaveragecarbonstock”is

reached(takingintoaccountharvest

rotation).Nofurtheremissionsor

sequestrationisregisterediflandis

replantedafterharvest.

Harvestedwoodproducts

Real-time

accountingofall

HWPsproduced

since1900

(estimated).

Real-timeaccounting

forHWPsproduced

frompost-1989land.

HWPsfrompre-1990

landtreatedassteady-

state.

Includedin

calculationof

long-term

averagecarbon

stock.28

SameasGHG

Inventory

accounting

(includesHWPs

fromallforest

land).

26Thesearenotpublished,buttheMinistryprovidedthemtomeonrequestforapreviousproject.

27Morecorrectly,pre-1990forestisaccountedforrelativetoabusiness-as-usual“forestmanagement

referencelevel”.Changesrelativetothisreferencelevelduetochangedmanagementpractices(suchas

changeinharvestrotation)couldbecreditedordebited.SeeVividEconomics(2017b),p.65.28ThisismyinterpretationofthedescriptionoftheaccountingmethodologyinNewZaland’sNationally

DeterminedContribution(emphasisadded):“ForestsestablishedafterthebaseyearwillcontinuetobeaccountedforastheywouldundertheKyotoProtocol,butoncetheyattaintheirlong-termaveragecarbonstock,takingintoaccountallcarbonpoolsandactivities,theforestwilltransfertotheForestmanagement/Forestremainingforestcategory,whereitwillbeaccountedforunderabusiness-as-usualreferencelevel.”

29

4.2 GROSSANDNETEMISSIONSPATHS

Combiningallthesectoralemissionspathsproducesthetotalgrossandnetemissionspaths

shownbelowinFigure12.TheresultsarealsopresentedinTable3.

FIGURE12:INDICATIVEGROSSANDNETEMISSIONSPATHS

30

TABLE3:TOTALGROSSANDNETEMISSIONSPATHS

2014 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Change2014-2030

Change2014-2050 Annualemissions(MtCO2e)

Grossemissions

Resourceful 81.1 82.6 77.7 72.6 68.4 64.5 60.7 56.6 -10% -30%Innovative 81.1 82.1 73.7 64.5 58.3 53.3 48.5 43.8 -20% -46%NetZero2050 81.1 82.2 73.7 64.6 56.8 50.3 44.2 38.3 -20% -53%

Netemissions

Resourceful 65.8 66.2 63.7 57.5 50.3 45.5 35.5 20.2 -13% -69%Innovative 65.8 66.1 60.9 52.1 44.5 40.4 31.3 16.9 -21% -74%NetZero2050 65.8 65.8 59.8 49.5 38.7 31.3 18.9 1.8 -25% -97%

Note: AllnetemissionsvaluesherearecalculatedusingVivid’sforestryaccountingmethod.Becauseofthis,the2014valuediffersfromthenationalinventoryvalue,andthepercentagereductionsby2050differfromvaluespresentedinVivid’sreport.

TABLE4:CUMULATIVEEMISSIONSUNDERTHEEMISSIONSPATHS

2016–2020

2021–2025

2026–2030

2031–2035

2036–2040

2041–2045

2046–2050

FirstParisperiod(2021–2030)

Total(2016-2050)

CumulativeGHGemissions(allgases,MtCO2e)Grossemissions

Resourceful 415 401 373 350 330 311 291 774 2,471Innovative 414 388 341 304 276 252 228 729 2,204NetZero2050 414 388 341 300 264 233 203 730 2,144

Forestry Resourceful -83 -74 -71 -86 -90 -111 -162 -145 -677Innovative -82 -70 -61 -68 -63 -75 -117 -131 -536NetZero2050 -83 -74 -71 -86 -90 -112 -162 -145 -679

Netemissions

Resourceful 332 327 302 265 240 199 129 629 1,794Innovative 332 318 280 237 213 177 111 598 1,668NetZero2050 331 314 270 214 174 121 41 584 1,465

31

Inthenetemissionsgraph,thecalculatedvaluesdifferfromthenationalinventoryvalues

becauseofthedifferentforestryaccountingmethodsused(seeSection4.1.5andBox1on

p.27).Asdiscussedearlier,thismeansweneedtobecarefulcomparingtheseresultswith

othersources.

Theemissionspathsseebothgrossandnetemissionspeakingin2018.Ongrossemissions,

allscenariosachievetheirfastestrateofreductionthroughthe2020s,withprogress

graduallyslowingafterthat.TherateofreductionisroughlytwiceasfastinInnovativeand

NetZero2050comparedwithResourceful.Relativeto2014,thepathsseegrossemissions

reduced10-20percentby2030and30–53percentby2050.

Thesurgeinnetforestrysequestrationbeginningin2035compensatesfortheslowdownin

progressongrossemissions,anddrivesveryrapidreductionsinnetemissionstowardsthe

middleofthecentury.Relativeto2014,netemissionsare13-25percentlowerby2030and

69–97percentlowerby2050.NetZero2050comesextremelyclosebutfallsjustshortof

fulfillingitsname.

WhiletheParisAgreementtextdoesnotmakethisdistinction,thekeyconditionfor

stabilisingglobaltemperaturesisforemissionsoflong-livedgreenhousegases(primarily

carbondioxideandnitrousoxide)toreachnetzero.29Thescenariosallachievethis

milestonebetween2045and2050.

Table4showsthecumulativeemissionsforallgasesinfiveyearperiodsfrom2016.Over

thewholetimeperiodfrom2016–2050,cumulativegrossemissionsspanarangeof2,144–

2,471MtCO2e.Cumulativenetemissionsrangefrom1,465–1,794MtCO2e.

4.3 ANALYSISWITHRESPECTTONEWZEALAND’S2030TARGET

UndertheParisAgreement,NewZealandhasseta2030emissionstargetof30percent

belowthe2005grossemissionslevel.Thetargetappliestonetemissionsusingthe

proposed“ModifiedKyoto”forestryaccountingmethoddescribedinBox1(p.27).For

compliance,thetargetwillbeconvertedintoa2021–2030“carbonbudget”.

TheMinistryfortheEnvironmentcurrentlyestimatesaprovisionalcarbonbudgetof594

MtCO2eandforecastgrossemissionsof814MtCO2eovertheperiod.30Thesevaluesare

basedonthe2017nationalinventory,whichmakesthemslightlyinconsistentwithour

data.31IgnoringthisandcomparingthenumbersinTable4atfacevalueimpliesagross

emissionsabatementof40–85MtCO2eintheseemissionspathsbeyondwhatcurrent

policiesareexpectedtodeliver.

29Short-livedgases,ofwhichmethaneisbyfarthemostimportant,arenotrequiredtogotozero,asan

ongoingsteadyflowleadstoastableatmosphericconcentration.However,deep,sustainedreductionsin

methanewillstillberequiredtomeetthegoalsoftheParisAgreement.30http://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/nz-ets-and-nzs-carbon-budget-in-the-2020s

31Thepreviouscarbonbudgetestimate(basedonthe2016inventory)was611Mt.Forsimplicity,Istickwith

thecurrentestimates.

32

Takingthenetemissionsnumbersatfacevalue,itappearsthattheNetZero2050path

comesinunderthe2021–30carbonbudget(at584MtCO2e),andtheotherscenariopaths

arenotfaraboveit.However,asdiscussedinBox1,thisdirectcomparisonisproblematic

becausetheforestryaccountingmethodusedbyVividdoesnotfullyalignwiththe

Government’sproposedmethod–particularlyonthetreatmentofHWPs.

Asasensitivitytest,ifweweretoexcludeHWPsaltogetherandlookonlyatinsituforestcarbon,thenetsequestrationovertheperiodwouldbe43–53MtCO2e.Thisconstitutesan

extremelower-boundsequestrationestimate.Usingthesevalues,netemissionsoverthe

periodwouldrangefrom677–721MtCO2e.

Duetothesignificantuncertaintiesaroundthesequestrationestimates,theabovefigures

shouldbeinterpretedandusedwithduecaution.

4.4 BEYOND2050:GETTINGTOANDSUSTAININGNETZEROEMISSIONS

IntheNetZeroinNewZealandsummaryreport,VividstatesthattheInnovativeand

Resourcefulscenarioswouldboth“placetheeconomyonapathtonetzeroemissions

before2100”.However,thereisanimportantcaveatsummarisedintheirfifthkey

conclusion:

“Althoughafforestationwilllikelybeanimportantelementofanystrategytomovetoanetzeroemissionstrajectoryintheperiodto2050,inthesecondhalfofthecenturyalternativestrategieswillbeneeded.”

Theyelaborateonthispointintheexecutivesummary:

“Sustaineddeploymentofpermanentemissionreductionsisrequiredbeyond2050tocontinuethepathtoemissionsneutrality;thiswillbeparticularlyimportantinResourcefulNewZealand.AlthoughtheInnovativeandResourcefulscenariosreduceemissionsataratethatisconsistentwithemissionsneutralityinthesecondhalfofthecentury,theanalysisdoesnotincludeafullassessmentofbottom-upemissionreductionspotentialbeyond2050.Furtherreductionsmaybemorechallengingasmanyofthelower-costopportunitieswillhavebeencaptured.Theheavyreliance�onnetafforestationinResourcefulNewZealandposesparticularchallengesasthesequestrationpotentialofforestsdiminishesastheyreachmaturity,andemissionsarereleasedafterthetimberisharvested.Scopeforyetfurtherafforestationisalsolimitedinthisscenario.Consequently,beyond2050,NewZealandmaywellneedtoexploreoptionsthatdelivernegativeemissions(inotherwords,thatpermanentlyremoveemissionsfromtheatmosphere).Thismightinclude,forinstance,theuseofbioenergyincombinationwithcarboncaptureandstorage(CCS),butcouldalsoincludetheuseoftechnologiesthatarenotyetforeseen.”

Toexplorethismatter,andthequestionofifandwhennetzeromightbeachieved,I

extendedalloftheemissionpathsoutto2070.Thisinvolvedextendingthetrajectoriesfor

allofthedriversdescribedinChapter3(listedinTable5).Ididthisby:

33

• Forforestry,maintainingVivid’sspecifiedplantingschedule(i.e.decliningtozero

from2050to2070);

• Forthosedriversusingaparticularequationormodel(e.g.vehicleelectrification,

dairycowpopulation),maintainingandextendingthis;

• Inallothercases,linearextrapolationbasedonthetrendoverthedecadeto2050.

Ingeneral,thisassumesfurtherincrementalprogress,andonlyintheareaswherechanges

arealreadyoccurring.Thereisnoaccelerationofeffortandnonewmitigationoptions

beyondthoseVividincluded.

TheresultsareshowninFigure14.Thekeyobservationisthatundertheseextended

assumptions,neitherResourcefulnorInnovativewouldinfacteverreachnetzero

emissions.ParticularlyinInnovative,manycurrentemissionssources(suchaslightvehicles

andlow-gradeheat)arealmostcompletelydecarbonisedbymid-centurysocannotyield

meaningfulfurtherreductions.Duetothecombinedeffectofslowingreductionsingross

emissionsanddecliningsequestrationfromforestry,netemissionsbegintoriseagainafter

around2060.ThelowindustryscenariovariationsofResourcefulandInnovative(notshown

here)donotreachnetzeroemissionseither;NetZero2050istheonlyscenariothatdoes.

ButevenNetZero2050,withoutneworacceleratedmitigationactionsornewwaysof

sequesteringCO2,wouldonlyachievethisgoaltemporarily;netemissionsrisebackabove

zerobefore2070.

ThisservestoillustrateVivid’spointsabove.Toreachandthensustainnetzeroemissions,it

willbenecessarytotakeadditionalmitigationactionsbeyondthoseincludedinthese

scenarios.ForResourceful,thatwouldlikelymeanbelatedadoptionoftheadditional

energytechnologies(suchaselectrificationofhigh-gradeheat),oralternativestothese,in

thepost-2050period.Thatis,theadditionalforestplantingonlydelaysbutdoesnotavoid

theneedforotherchangesintheeconomy.Furthermore,fromacumulativeemissions

perspective,landcanalwaysbeafforestedlaterandwilllockupthesameamountofcarbon

overtime,whereasdelayedreductionsingrossemissions(particularlyoflong-livedgases)

cannotsimplybereversed.

FIGURE13:NETEMISSIONSPATHTO2070

34

FIGURE14:EMISSIONSBYSECTORTO2070

35

5 DISCUSSIONANDRECOMMENDATIONS

ThispaperbuildsontheworkofVividEconomicsbyexploringtransitionpathsconsistent

withscenariosintheNetZeroinNewZealandreport.Usingabackcastingapproach,Ihavesoughttocreaterealisticpathsbetweennowand2050.Ihavealsoextendedthepaths

further,outto2070.Together,theseformabroad-bandedindicativepathwaytowards

domesticemissionsneutrality,whichGLOBE-NZcoulduseforthebasisoffurther

conversationandanalysis.

Thisindicativepathwayservesasasoundandconsistentstartingpoint,butdoesnotspan

thefullrangeofpossibilitiesforhowthetransitioncouldoccur.Thescopeofthisproject

limitedtheextentofanalysisonthetrajectoriesofthevariousdriversofemissions.Across

allareas,thereispotentialforacceleratedordelayedaction,whilearrivingatthesame

pointin2050.Thiscouldwarrantfurtherexploration,particularlyinareassuchaslight

vehicletransportthatcouldbesubjecttodisruptivechange.Simplifiedassumptionswere

necessaryinseveralcases:wheretheevidencebaseispoor,suchasforelectrificationof

heat;andwherethetimingishighlyuncertain,suchasforindustryclosureandadoptionof

amethanevaccine.

Throughthecourseofthisproject,ithasbecomeevidentthatthereareissuesaround

Vivid’sforestrysequestrationestimateswhichneedtoberesolved.Differencesbetweenthe

accountingmethodusedinthereportandthemethodsusedbytheNewZealand

Governmentmakecomparisonsdifficult,leadingtopotentialforconfusion.Variationsin

forestcarbonmodelparametersmayalsoleadtosignificantlydifferentoutcomes.I

thereforerecommendthattheforestrysequestrationestimatesbereviewed,ideallywith

inputfromrelevantgovernmentdepartments.Suchareviewcouldalsolookatalternative

plantingscenariosdevelopedbyMason&Morgenroth.32Inthemeantime,theforestry

emissionsandnetemissionsresultsinthispapershouldbeviewedastentative.

Recommendation1:Forestrysequestrationestimatesshouldbereviewed.

Whilethemainfocusofthisreportisontheemissionspath,asdiscussedinSection1.3,this

isoneofarangeofcomponentsthatmaymakeupa“2050pathway”.Otherpotential

componentsonwhichthispaperofferssomeinsightareindicatorsandmilestones.An

exampleindicatorwouldbeelectricvehiclemarketshare,withcorrespondingmilestones

basedonbackcastingfroma2050fleetelectrificationtarget.Thesimpleanalysis

undertakenforthispapersuggeststhattheInnovativescenariowouldrequireelectric

marketshareforlightvehiclestoreach50%byaround2025and100%byaround2035.

Definingapathwayusingtangiblemeasuressuchasthis,inadditiontoemissionslevels,

mayhelpwithpolicydevelopmentandwithdeterminingprogress.Irecommendthat

GLOBE-NZconsiderbroaderelementssuchastheseaspartofitspathwaysconversation.

Thereisanopportunitytoparticipateinandhelpshapetheglobalconversationinthisarea

throughthe2050PathwaysPlatform,whichtheNewZealandGovernmenthassignedupto.

32Mason,E.G.andJ.Morgenroth.2017.PotentialforforestryonhighlyerodiblelandinNewZealand.NZ

JournalofForestry,May2017,Vol.62,No.1.

36

Recommendation2:Consideradditionalelementsbeyondemissionslevelsindefiningapathwaytodomesticemissionsneutrality.

Thispaperalsoextendsthescenarioanalysisbeyond2050,whichhighlightsserious

challengesingettingtoandsustainingnetzeroemissions.Obviously,thereislimitedvalue

inattemptingtolooktoofarintothefuture.However,thiswarrantsacloserlookatsome

areasoftheeconomywherefurtheremissionsreductionsmaybepossible–inparticular,

thoseemissionssourcesthatdonotreduce(andinsomecasesactuallygrow)underVivid’s

scenarios.Theseinclude:air,seaandrailtransport;fugitiveemissionsfromnaturalgas

productionandgeothermal;cementandlimeproduction;horticulture;andwastewater.In

somecases,driverassumptionsusedbyVividappearconservative–forexample,the

relativelyslowfreightefficiencygains,33lackoffurtherelectrificationofrail,andgrowthin

fugitiveemissionsfromnaturalgas.Inotherareas,suchasairtravelandcement

production,structuralchangessuchasdemandreductionandproductsubstitutionhavenot

beenexploredbutcouldplayanimportantrole.34

Recommendation3:ContinuetoconsiderandexploreemissionsreductionopportunitiesgoingbeyondthosefeaturedinVivid’sscenarios.

Onewaytoenablefurtherexplorationoftherangeofchoicesavailable,anduncertainty

aroundhowthevariousdriversofemissionsmightchange,wouldbetodevelopan

interactivecalculatortool.TheUKGovernment’s2050Calculator35providesatemplate

whichhasbeenadoptedby24othercountries,regionsandcities,36includingWellington.

37

ThecalculatordevelopedbyVividEconomicsissomewhatdifferentbuthasasimilar

underlyinglogicandstructure,andcouldbequitereadilyadapted.

Recommendation4:Explorethepotentialforinteractivetoolstoassistinfurtherdevelopmentandcommunicationofapathwaytodomesticemissionsneutrality.

33http://morganfoundation.org.nz/electrifying-getting-zero-carbon-transport-new-zealand/

34Forexample,inAustralia,think-tankBeyondZeroEmissionshasproducedareportonpathwaystozero

carboncement,andcompanyMineralCarbonationInternationalaimstobeproducingnegative-emissions

“greenconcrete”atacommercialscaleby2020.35http://2050-calculator-tool.decc.gov.uk/

36https://www.2050.org.uk/

37http://www.climatecalculator.org.nz/

37

APPENDIX1:LISTOFKEYDRIVERSANDASSUMPTIONS

TABLE5:LISTOFKEYDRIVERSFOREACHSECTORWITHASSUMPTIONSUSEDBYVIVID

ELECTRICITY Resourceful Innovative,NetZero2050

Electricitydemand 46%baselinegrowthinelectricityconsumptionbetween2014and

2050(followingEDGSMixedRenewablesscenario).Furtherdemand

growthfromelectrificationoftransportandheat,andreductionsdue

toefficiencyandindustryclosures,arecalculatedbasedonscenario

assumptionsinothersectors.

Energyefficiency Noimprovementbeyond

baseline.

Additional0.1%perannum

improvementbeyondbaseline.

Generationmix 91%renewablein2050(8%gas,

1%coal;22%geothermal,

remainderfromnon-emitting

sources).BasedonEDGSGlobal

LowCarbonscenario.

98%renewablein2050(2%gas,

0%coal,20%geothermal,

remainderfromnon-emitting

sources).

Geothermalfugitiveemissionsintensity

Nochange. Improvementrateof1.4%per

annum(39%decreaseby2050).

TRANSPORT Resourceful Innovative,NetZero2050

Lightvehicletraveldemand 10%reductioninVKTpercapitafrom2014levelby2050.Lightvehiclefuelefficiency Improvementrateof1.8%per

annum(90%by2050).

Improvementrateof1.9%per

annum(97%by2050).Lightvehicleelectrification 85%oflightvehicletravelby2050 95%oflightvehicletravelby2050

Freightdemand Growthrateof1.54%perannumforlandandseafreight(73%by

2050).

Freightmodeshift Railshareoflandfreight

increasesfrom12%in2014to

15%in2050.

Railshareincreasesto25%in

2050.

Road,railandseafreightefficiency

Improvementrateof0.3%per

annum(11%by2050).

Improvementrateof0.4%per

annum(15%by2050).

Heavyvehicleelectrification 25%by2050. 50%by2050.

Railelectrification Unchangedat21%.

Domesticairtraveldemand Growthrateof3.2%perannum(211%by2050).

Airtravelefficiency Improvementrateof3.0%per

annum(190%by2050).

Improvementrateof3.1%per

annum(200%by2050).

OTHERFOSSILFUELS Resourceful Innovative,NetZero2050

Energydemand Demandfordairyfarmingandprocessing,pulp,paperandwood

processingiscalculatedfromactivitylevelsbasedonassumptionsin

othersectors.Allothersub-sectorsusebaselinegrowthratesfor

electricalandnon-electricalenergydemandfromEDGSMixed

Renewablescenario.Demandfrompetroleum,chemicalsandprimary

metalsmanufacturinglinkedtolevelsofindustryactivity.

Energyefficiency Improvementrateof1%per

annuminpulp,paperanddairy

(43%by2050).

Additional0.1%annual

improvementbeyondResourceful

inallsub-sectors.

Electrificationlevel By2050:increaseinlow-grade

heat(to75%),andmedium-grade

heat(to13%).

Increaseinlow-gradeheat(to

95%),medium-gradeheat(to

19%),high-gradeheat(to34%)

andmobilemotivepower(to

25%).

38

Bioenergysubstitution Allmedium-gradeheatinpulp,paperandwood.75%ofmedium-

gradeheatinagriculturalprocessing.

FUGITIVEEMISSIONS Resourceful Innovative,NetZero2050

Geothermalenergyuse Calculatedfromelectricitygenerationandassuminggeothermalheat

usegrowsinproportiontototalnon-electricalenergydemand(4%by

2050).

Geothermalemissionsintensity Nochange. Improvementrateof1.4%per

annum(reductionof39%from

2014-2050).

Emissionsfromoilrefiningandcoalmining

Scaledwithlevelsofindustryactivity(petroleumandchemicals;iron

andsteelproduction).Emissionsfromnaturalgasproduction

Scaledwithbaselinenon-electricenergydemand(4%growthto2050).

INDUSTRIALPROCESSESANDPRODUCTUSE

Resourceful Innovative,NetZero2050

Levelofindustrialactivity Mineralproductionscaledwithpopulation(35.4%growthfrom2014

to2050).Chemicalandmetalproductionscaledwithbaselinenon-

electricalenergydemand(4%growthto2050)

Industryclosure ChemicalandmetalindustriesclosedinNetZero2050andin“low

industrysensitivity”variationsforResourcefulandInnovative.

Processefficiency Noimprovement. Improvementrateof0.1%per

annum(4%by2050).UseofHFCs Reductionof85%from2014to2050.

AGRICULTURE Resourceful Innovative,NetZero2050Livestocknumbers From2014to2050:10%

reductionindairycows,20%

reductioninbeefcows,25%

reductioninsheep.

20%reductionindairycows,30%

reductioninbeefcows,35%

reductioninsheep.

Stockingrate Increaseof10%foralltypesof

livestock.

Decreaseof20%fordairy.

Increaseof10%forsheepand

beef.

Productionperanimal Increaseof15%foralltypesof

livestock.

Increaseof25%fordairy,15%for

sheepandbeef.

Baselineemissionsintensity 10%reductionforalltypesoflivestock.

EntericfermentationBreeding 15%reductioninemissionsintensity(beyondbaseline).100%

adoption.

Feed 10%reductioninemissionsintensity.Adoptionrateof70%fordairy,

10%forbeef,0%forsheep.

Methanevaccineorinhibitor

20%reductioninemissions

intensity.Adoptionrateof80%

fordairy,0%forsheepandbeef.

(Novaccine.)

Fordairy,30%reductionin

emissionsintensitywith100%

adoption.Forsheepandbeef,

20%reductioninemissions

intensitywith90%uptake.

AnimalwasteandfertiliserAcceleratedefficiencyandprecisionagriculture

10%reductioninemissionsintensity.Adoptionrateof100%fordairy,

30%forsheepandbeef.

Feed(lownitrogen) 10%reductioninemissionsintensity.Adoptionrateof70%fordairy,

10%forbeef,0%forsheep.

DCD(nitrificationinhibitor)

20%reductioninemissionsintensity.Adoptionrateof40%fordairy,

0%forsheepandbeef.

WASTE Resourceful Innovative,NetZero2050Population MedianprojectionfromStatisticsNZ(35.4%growth2014to2050)

Wastequantity

39

Municipalsolidwaste 25%reductionpercapitaby2050. 50%reductionpercapita.

Construction&demolitionwaste

Constantamountpercapita,but25%divertedfromlandfillby2050.

Wastewater Constantamountpercapita

Unmanagedsites 10%reductionintotalwaste. 20%reductionintotalwaste.

Emissionsintensity/methanecapture

25%decreaseformunicipalsolid

wasteonly.

50%decreaseformunicipalsolid

waste.20%decreaseforfarm

waste.

FORESTRY Resourceful,NetZero2050 InnovativeNewexoticplantings Totalof1.6millionhato2050,2.1

millionhato2100.

Totalof1.1millionhato2050,1.5

millionhato2100.

Newnativeregeneration Totalof1.0millionhato2100. Totalof0.5millionhato2100.

Timeprofileofplanting Linearincreasefrom2015to2030;constantto2050;lineardecrease

tozeroin2070.

Enduses(mixofharvestedwoodproducts)

By2050:150%increasein

hardwood;55%increasein

biofuels;0%increaseinpaper.

Surpluswoodexportedasraw

logs.

By2050:100%increasein

hardwood;34%increasein

biofuels;0%increaseinpaper.

Surpluswoodexportedasraw

logs

Deforestation Zero(allforestlandremainsinitscurrentuse).