Tourism Hotspot Forecast – Week 26/02 – 03/03, 2016 A TOURISM SAFETY INITIATIVE OF THE TOURISM BUSINESS COUNCIL SA

The purpose of this document is to provide decision-makers within the tourism industry with a

weekly overview of projected high crime locations in the country. These projections are

applicable to all businesses – not specifically tourism. It is the recipient of this product’s

responsibility to “superimpose” his/her specific organisation’s locality onto the projected crime

“map” as depicted here.

6/2016

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Disclaimer The information in this document is confidential. It is intended for use by the specific recipient and copying and/or forwarding this document to other recipients is strictly forbidden. Neither the TBCSA nor TSI will be held liable for any damage or loss relating to the use of this information, whether it arises out of contract or delict, and regardless of whether the possibility of such damage or loss was advised, or not. If you disagree with the terms and conditions, you should refrain from using the information and notify TSI without delay.

Method of Use The information provided here is based on a wide variety of sources from within the private public partnership in crime control. By its very nature any product that attempts to forecast crime and victimization patterns spatially is a risky undertaking. But we believe that doing nothing is more risky. The hotspots provided here refer to Police Clusters. The recipients should ensure that they are familiar with the Police Clusters within which their businesses are located, so as to draw any correlations. As to the specific methodology to be used by each recipient to sensitise its business interests as to the information contained herein, if it is applicable – that is left to their own discretion, except that the product may not be forwarded as is. It is important to understand that the quality of this product will only be improved with improved incident reporting on the TSI website – www.tourismsafety.co.za – as that will enable us to determine forecasting accuracy. The information provided here is based on the weekly aggregation of information from sources related to inter alia the banking industry, Post Office, petroleum industry, retailers and SAPS. As the TSI incident reporting levels mature, we will also increasingly contribute to these hotspot forecasts.

Table of Contents

High risk provinces 2

Lessons learned 2

Crime types 2

Risk categories 3

Hotspot forecast success ratio 3

Risk ratings per province 4

Crime prevention tips 13

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High Risk provinces in priority order

Gauteng, Western Cape, Kwazulu-Natal, Eastern Cape, Limpopo, Mpumalanga, NW, Free State, NC.

Lessons learned and modus operandi (MO)

Lessons learned deals with the most important lessons learned over the recent past regarding especially

violent crimes, but not exclusively so – specifically as it affects business. It is important to understand

that these are not specifically tourism industry-related, but rather generically applicable to all

(violent) crimes directed at business – especially armed robberies. The importance of these for the

tourism industry is that criminals are creatures of habit, and in many cases they will migrate between

industries to targets of opportunity. Their MO, although maybe slightly adapted to each new situation,

will contain traces of past behavior.

Arrests were made in KZN.

Vulnerability before and during opening as well as during and after closing times remains a concern

across all industries.

The safe carrying of cash and associated violence during the robberies remains a concern.

Filling stations, shops selling Cell phones, fast food outlets and lower LSM stores are especially

targeted.

The use of explosives, cutting torches and grinders in attempts to gain access to ATMs, safes and

Cash Management Systems (CMS) were reported.

Follow-home robberies from OR Tambo seem to be on the increase again.

Crime Types

The types of crimes specifically relevant to these hotspots are bank robberies, associated robberies (to

and from the bank), business/retailer robberies, ATM attacks, fuel station robberies, and CIT robberies.

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Risk Categories

The hotspot model developed here is still relatively primitive compared to such models that exist in

other industries. It will be improved over time, but for now only two risk categories are used – Medium

and High. Medium risk requires increased preventative measures (e.g. alerting staff to be more aware);

High risk requires specific preventative measures (e.g. drills, CPF liaison, increasing security patrols etc).

From a tour operator perspective it is left to their own discretion as to how they want to use this

information. We do recommend that it is factored into route planning though.

Towns not mentioned here are assumed to be at low risk.

Successful Hotspot Forecasts

N/A

4

Risk Ratings per Province

Gauteng

SAPS Cluster Risk Rating

Alexandra High

Benoni High

Brakpan High

Carltonville Medium

Ga-Rankuwa High

Germiston High

Hillbrow High

Honeydew Medium

Johannesburg Central High

Katlahong High

Krugersdorp High

Mamelodi Medium

Moroka High

Pretoria Central High

Sebokeng High

Springs Medium

Sunnyside High

Tembisa High

Vereeniging Medium

5

KZN

SAPS Cluster Risk Rating

Amajuba High

Durban Central High

Durban Surrounds High

Harry Gwala Medium

Howick Medium

Ilembe Medium

Ugu Medium

Uthungulu Medium

Umgungundlovo Medium

Umzinyati Medium

Zululand High

6

Mpumalanga

SAPS Cluster Risk Rating

Acornhoek Medium

Elukwatini Medium

Ermelo Medium

KwaMahlanga High

Middelburg High

Nelspruit Medium

Pienaar Medium

Secunda High

Tonga Medium

Witbank High

7

Limpopo

SAPS Cluster Risk Rating

Bela-Bela Medium

Burgersfort Medium

Giyani Medium

Groblersdal High

Lebowakgomo High

Lephalale Medium

Mahwelereng High

Makhado Medium

Shesego High

Toyando High

Tzaneen Medium

8

North West

SAPS Cluster Risk Rating

Brits Medium

Klerksdorp High

Mahikeng High

Pudimoe Medium

Rustenburg High

9

Free State

SAPS Cluster Risk Rating

Mangaung Medium

Park Road High

Phutaditjaba Medium

Thabong Medium

Welkom Medium

10

Eastern Cape

SAPS Cluster Risk Rating

Alice Medium

Butterworth Medium

Cofimvaba Medium

East London High

King Williams Town Medium

Mdantsane Medium

Motherwell Medium

Mount Fletcher High

Mount Road High

Mtatha Medium

Port St Johns Medium

Queenstown High

Uitenhage Medium

11

Western Cape

SAPS Cluster Risk Rating

Bluedowns Medium

Cape Town Central Medium

Da Gamaskop High

Eden Medium

Khayelitsha Medium

Milnerton Medium

Mitchells Plain High

Nyanga High

Overberg Medium

Tygerberg High

Vredenburg Medium

Winelands Medium

Wynberg Medium

12

Northern Cape

SAPS Cluster Risk Rating

Kimberley Medium

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Crime Prevention Tips

Carjacking Prevention Tips The most common location where a carjacking is likely to occur is a large parking lot, in a shopping

centre where people are entering and exiting their vehicles. Many carjackers prefer to be near a freeway

on-ramp for a quick escape. Some common locations for carjacking include; parking lots, parking

structures, gas stations, liquor stores, shopping malls, strip malls, hotels, ATM locations, and the drive

thru at fast food restaurants. What to Do:

Be aware of your surroundings as you walk to and from your vehicle.

Be cognizant of suspicious looking people sitting in their vehicle.

Park in area with sufficient lighting, especially if you arrive and/or leave after dark.

Never park in isolated or visually obstructed areas.

Park as close as you can to your intended destination. The farther away you park, the more isolated

you’ll be.

Enter and exit your vehicle quickly, and make sure the doors are locked at all times. Don’t linger

around talking on your cell-phone. Start the car and leave immediately.

If someone approaches you and you start to feel uncomfortable, change direction or go into a busy

store or where there are many people.

Be leery of people loitering in the area, especially young males. This demographic makes up the vast

majority of carjackers.

Most large shopping centers will provide you with a security escort to your vehicle. If you are alone,

don’t be embarrassed to ask for an escort. Take advantage of it, this is why the security guards are

there.

Look around, under and inside your vehicle before getting in. While loading packages into your car, be

aware of your immediate surroundings. Don’t turn your back on any people nearby.

Trust your instincts, if they tell you to be suspicious and walk away, then do so.

Source: http://www.apexselfdefense.com/carjacking_prevention_s/221.htm

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Hijackings on the Rise

Mamelodi East has seen an increase in hijackings, police said this week. Spokesperson Warrant Officer

Michael Mbewe urged motorists to take extra precaution to be safe, especially at night. He said police

had identified the hijacking hotspot as the corner of Hinterland Street and Solomon Mahlangu Drive,

next to the Mahube mall and at Extension 17. Mbewe gave a few tips for motorists to avoid becoming

victims of a hijacking:

Avoid giving lifts to strangers and when driving alone at night and beware of suspicious people

loitering next to stops signs or traffic lights.

Phone someone at home and ask them to wait for you outside when arriving home at night to prevent

being ambushed as you wait for the gate to open.

If you are hijacked, be alert and make a mental note of your assailant’s appearance, scars, voice and

physical build, all information that would help the police compile an identikit.

If possible install anti hijacking devices, avoid road rage and most importantly don’t drink and drive. He

encouraged motorists to report any suspicious people to the police by calling 08600-10-111.

Source: http://rekordeast.co.za/83332/hijackings-on-the-rise/

Contact Contact the TSI Project Manager at tsi@tbcsa.travel, or 012 664 0120. Alternatively the TSI Analyst at info@tourismsafety.co.za, or 0861 000 064.