1

INTRODUCTION

1.1-INTRODUCTION

Tourism comprises the activities of persons traveling to and staying in places outside their usual

environment for not more than one consecutive year for the purpose of leisure, business, and other

purposes. Different categories of tourism are; Leisure, Cultural, Nature-based, Scientific/Educational,

Business Traveler and Services.

In this global era tourism has been found as a potential engine of growth for a country. Tourism

is considered as a vital source of reducing current account deficit through foreign exchange

earnings and growth for a country. It has gained currency in the international relation as a basis

for improving political, cultural and economic ties among the nations. However, its economic

impacts supersede all its bearings on other fields. Tourism ensures inflow of foreign exchange

that can be used to import capital goods and hence capital formation in the country.

It has been found in various studies that tourism and economic growth has profound link. It

improves country’s balance of payments accounts by reducing current account deficit. Most of

the LDCs like Pakistan have low competitiveness in their exports in international market. Their

current account witnesses a persistent deficit due to meager exports and high inelastic imports.

Chapter 1

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However, this can be redressed if a greater emphasis is put by these countries on the service

sector especially tourism.

One of the chief reasons that governments support and promote tourism throughout the world is

that it has a positive impact upon economic growth and development. Tourism should generate

employment and income, lead to a positive tourism balance of payments, stimulate the supplying

sectors of tourism, and lead to a generally increased level of economic activity in the country.

Thus, tourism should have an impact on the frequently used quantitative measure of the

economic development, gross domestic product. As a result, a specialized literature has

developed to measure the impact of tourism gross domestic product upon to deal with

measuring how tourism contributes to economic growth.

Tourism’s economic impacts therefore have an important consideration in state, regional and

community planning and economic development. Economic impacts are also important factors in

marketing and management decisions. Communities therefore need to understand the relative

importance of tourism to their region, including tourism’s contribution to economic activity in

the area. An economic impact analysis of tourism activity normally focuses on changes in sales,

income, and employment in a region resulting from tourism activity.

The relationship between tourism specialization and economic growth is one of the main topics

under discussion in the growing field of tourism economics. The tourism sector investments in

the country are dominated by private sector with the role of public sector mainly as a facilitator.

Almost the entire hotel, restaurant, travel agency and tour operator business is in the private

sector. The Pakistan Tourism Development Corporation (PTDC) is also operating a limited

number of hotels and roadside facilities in areas where the private sector has been reluctant. The

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Department of Tourist Services (DTS) is responsible for maintaining the standard and

categorization of hotel industry. The Ministry of Tourism looks after the entire public sector

interventions including formulation of policies and overseeing the legal and regulatory

framework.

Tourism activities are considered to be one of the major sources of economic growth. It can be

regarded as a mechanism of generating the employment as well as income in both formal and

informal sectors. Tourism supplements the foreign exchange earnings derived from trade in

commodities and sometimes finance the import of capital goods necessary for the growth of

manufacturing sectors in the economy. On the other hand, rapid economic growth in the

developed economies attracts foreign travels (Business travels), which leads to an increase in the

foreign reserve of the country. The rapid growth of tourism led to a growth of household

incomes and government revenues directly and indirectly by means of multiplier effects,

improving balance of payments and provoking tourism promoted government policies. As a

result, the development of tourism has generally been considered a positive contribution to

economic growth.

In the field of tourism, Pakistan offers many allures in the developing world. The historical and

cultural heritage of the nation presents a testimony for glory of this ancient land, the country

inherits numerous tourist attractions at Swat, Kalam, Malam, Jaba, Shangla, Balakot, Ayubia,

Murri, Chitral, Gilgit, Naran and Kaghan valleys, and other mountains ranges, historical, and

archaeological places in the other parts of the country. There are few places on the earth that

posses the majesty and grandeur of the northern region of Pakistan. Northern Pakistan remains a

land of contrasts, unique in its legacy of landlocked civilization and blessed as no other

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destination with an amazing array of some of most beautiful valleys, lakes, rivers and mountains.

The junction of four of the world’s most formidable mountain ranges Karakoram, Hindukhsh,

Himalayas, and Pamir’s forms a unique point in the northern areas, it has climbers, trekkers,

mountaineers, hikers and unheeding rock, the flow of countless glacial streams, which attracts

millions of tourists annually. Few areas in the world offer such a unique blend of breath taking

natural beauty and a rich diversity of culture, socioeconomic traditions, history and lifestyle as in

the Hindukush-Himalayan region of Pakistan. Furthermore, Pakistan has a tremendous potential

in the fields of echo and safari tourism.

Pakistan has great attractions in the form of scenic beauty such as sun, ocean, mountains, flora

and fauna, lakes and in particular the hospitality of its people that may compel the tourists to visit

Pakistan. They have the opportunities to escape from the fretfulness and monotony of daily life

and can relax in an ideal climate and perfect conditions. The rich cultural heritage of Pakistan

comprise of Mohenjo-Daro cradle of ancient Indus Valley and Gandhara Civilization. The three

great mountain ranges, the Himalayas, the Hindukush and Karakoram meet in this land. It is a

blend of old and modern civilizations. The Nature has bestowed Pakistan a diverse topography,

demography, culture and traditions paving the way for investment in the tourism sector giving

the strength to boost the economy.

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1.2 -OBJECTIVE OF STUDY

Following are the objectives of the studies:

i. To find impact of tourism on development of Pakistan.

ii. To provide suitable policy implication based on empirical finding.

1.3-Organization of the Study

The study is organized as follows: After a brief introduction in chapter 1, chapter 2, is devoted to

review of literature on tourism model, chapter 3 outlines the model, methodology, and data used.

Sec chapter 4 presents results from an estimated model and its interpretation, and the last chapter

5,gives the concluding remarks and policy implications.

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LITERATURE REVIEWVarious studies both theoretical and empirical have investigated the tourism industry and its

impacts on economy. These studies demonstrate different results. Some of reviewed studies are

as follows:

Ivanov and Webster (2006) examine the relationship between tourism development and

economic growth but do not state how much of the economic growth is a consequence of tourism

development. As the results, the economic growth generated by tourism and generated by other

industries derives the impact of tourism on it.

Surugiu , Fren and M. Surugiu (2009) use various instruments for measuring the impact of

tourism in an economy, such as multipliers and Input Output Analysis. In the case of Romania

the Input Output method was applied to measure the impact of tourism upon the economic

growth. Backward and forward linkage coefficients for output, earnings, value added and

employment were used to underline how the changes in final demand for hotels, restaurants and

travel agencies sector will affect the entire economy.

Kweka (2004) indicates that tourism expansion has substantial impact on the Tanzania economy

as shown by increases in real GDP, total welfare and exports. Improvement of infrastructure

appreciably amplifies the effects of tourism expansion and tourism taxation has an clear

favourable impact on tax revenue and welfare. As LDCs lack sufficient resources to enhance

Chapter 2

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growth, tourism may provide as a source of tax revenue to finance infrastructure projects that

will benefit the economy as whole as well as tourists.

Fayissa , Nsiah and Tadesse (2009) show that revenues from the tourism industry positively

contribute to both the current level of gross domestic product and the economic growth of LACs

as do investments in physical and human capital. The findings imply that Latin American

economies may enhance their economic growth by strategically strengthening the tourism

industry while not neglecting the other sectors which also promote growth.

Balaguer and Jorda (2010) examines the role of tourism in the Spanish long-run economic

development. The results indicate that, at least, during the last three decades economic growth in

Spain has been sensible to persistent expansion of international tourism. The analysis shows,

then, that a long-run stable relationship between economic growth and tourism expansion exists.

The earnings from international tourism affect positively the Spanish economic growth.

Kareem,Idowu (2008) examine the direction of causality between tourism-exports and

economic growth in Africa and at the same time show whether there is long run relationship

between them. There is long run relationship between tourism-exports and economic growth in

Africa, which simply means that tourism, could be used by African countries to drive economic

growth in the continent.

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Carrera , Brida and Risso (2007) reveal that international tourism expenditure positively

impacts Mexican economic growth. Tourism expenditure and Real Exchange Rate are weakly

exogenous to real GDP. Analysis shows that a shock in tourism expenditure produces a short fall

and then a positive effect on growth.

Catty and Serju (2006) argue that the tourism sector is viewed as one of the most important

engines of growth and development in the Jamaican economy and as such, is a key focus in the

Government’s industrial strategy. In relation to employment, agriculture transport, storage &

communication, construction, and distribution are the primary beneficiaries from a dollar spent

within the tourism industry. The importance of entertainment to the tourism industry and the

Jamaican economy in general necessitates more emphasis on the proper measurement of this

sector in the national accounts, as well as a greater focus on harnessing the creative skills of the

people.

Kreishan (2010) suggests that government should focus on economic policies to promote

international tourism as a potential source of economic growth in Jordan. The study shows that

there is a positive relationship between tourism development and economic development in the

long-run. The results suggest that promoting tourism via developing a long-term tourism

strategic plan will contribute to economic growth in Jordan.

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Figini and Vici (2007) identify the conditions under which tourism specialization brings a better

economic performance than industrial development, and empirical evidence showed that tourism

is an independent factor enhancing growth in a cross-section of countries. The theory shows the

conditions under which a tourism-based growth process can flourish despite a lower.

Segun and Odularu (2008) estimates the relationship between economic growth and growth in

tourist arrivals conditional on main macroeconomic variables, it recommends that the role of

tourism cannot be over-emphasized in the sustainable economic development in West Africa.

The result suggests that the role of tourism cannot be over-emphasised in the sustainable

management of tourism is necessary in order to reap maximum benefit of topical relevance to

West African macroeconomic performance. Furthermore, it suggests that Tourism as the main

objective of this study does matter in West African economic performance.

Rafiq and Shafiqullah (2007) examine the valuation of tourism’s benefits in Chitral Valley. The

study employs Zonal Travel Cost Method (ZTCM). They use the double log functional form for

estimating the value of the recreational visits. The findings of the study help the local

government for imposition of an optimal entry fee and efficient resource allocation.

In conclusion, it seems that there is a clear empirical consensus in the literature that tourism

promotes economic growth. More specifically, it seems that the role of tourism in economic

growth is larger for smaller developing countries than for the developed countries.

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DATA AND METHODOLOGYReal per capita GDP is the function of tourist receipts, gross fixed capital formation, foreign

direct investment, terms of trade and labor force participation rate. We specify a Cobb-Douglass

production function as:

Y= f (TR, GFCF, FDI, TOT, LFP)

3.1-Definitions of the Variables

Y= Real per capita GDP

Real GDP divided by Population. This is the "average" output of the economy per person

measured in a base year prices. This ratio is often used as a measure of standard of living in

comparisons over time of one country, or between different countries when measured in the

same currency.

TR=Tourist Receipts

Foreign Tourists

According to the United Nation World Tourism Organization (2009), the definition of foreign

tourist for Pakistan is prescribed as: “The term ‘foreign tourist’ is used to describe a person

irrespective of his/her nationality, race, age, sex, language or religion, etc; who visited Pakistan

Chapter 3

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for any reason other than seeking gainful employment, and whose duration of stay was for 24

hours or more but not more than one consecutive year. All Overseas Pakistanis travelling on

foreign passports whose usual place of residence is outside the country, and who visited Pakistan

during the period under report, fell within the purview of this definition. Excursionists and transit

passengers whose stay was less than 24 hours are excluded. Every visit or entry of a tourist to the

country meeting the above definition, have been counted as arrival”.

Tourism

According to the United Nation World Tourism Organization (2009), Tourism comprises the

activities of persons travelling to and staying in places outside their usual environment for not

more than one consecutive year for leisure, business and other purposes.

GFCF= Gross fixed capital formation

Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) refers to the net increase in physical assets (investment

minus disposals) within the measurement period.  It does not account for the consumption

(depreciation) of fixed capital, and also does not include land purchases.  It is a component of

expenditure approach to calculating GDP.

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FDI= Foreign direct investment

FDI or Foreign Direct Investment is any form of investment that earns interest in enterprises

which function outside of the domestic territory of the investor.

FDIs require a business relationship between a parent company and its foreign subsidiary.

Foreign direct business relationships give rise to multinational corporations. For an investment to

be regarded as an FDI, the parent firm needs to have at least 10% of the ordinary shares of its

foreign affiliates. The investing firm may also qualify for an FDI if it owns voting power in a

business enterprise operating in a foreign country.

TR=Tourist Receipts 

The receipts of a country in the form of consumption expenditures or payments for goods and

services made by foreign visitors out of foreign currency resources.

LFP= Labor Force participation rate

The labor force participation rate is the percentage of working-age persons in an economy who:

Are employed

Are unemployed but looking for a job

Typically "working-age persons" is defined as people between the ages of 16-64. People in those

age groups who are not counted as participating in the labor force are typically students,

homemakers, and persons under the age of 64 who are retired.

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TERRORISM AND ITS EFFECT ON PAKISTAN ECONOMY

World has been replaced with the synonym of “global village”. Tourism industry had been a

symbol of recreation, global integration and economic prosperity of a nation. But this scenario

was solely reversed when terrorist activities haunted the minds of travelers and tourists with a

fear of insecurity after the terrorist attacks of 9/11 in America. Pakistan has been blessed with

natural endowments and historical glory in the form of architect. Northern areas are the most eye

catching parts of the Pakistan and had been the focal attention of tourists from all over the world

but the wave of terrorism has faded that attraction and specifically in those beautiful northern

areas and tourism industry has almost been ruined in Pakistan. The only source of income in

Chitral and Northern Areas of Pakistan. The attack on Afghanistan by the U.S.-led coalition

forces has almost ruined the tourism industry in Pakistan and the people attached with it are

finding it very difficult to survive as they have lost their only source of income. The main hotels

in Peshawar, the capital of the khyber pakhtoonkhwa (KPK) bordering Afghanistan, are deserted

and very few foreign tourists can be seen. The tourism industry in Pakistan has been severely

affected by terrorism, as foreign countries and international airlines have branded Pakistan an

“unsafe destination”.

Resultantly in the year of 2009 only 0.855 million foreign tourists and 46.8 million domestic

tourists visits tourists sites and contributed and amount of $ 241 million (only 0.3% of GDP)

with an annual growth of just 2.9%. There was continues decrease observed, like in the year of

2007 total earning from tourism was $276.1 million and in 2008 $ 240.6 million (Tourism in

Pakistan, 2009). Due to war on terrorism educational activities has also been shattered as

reported by NWFP Department of Education, 65% of the schools in Swat valley have been

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destroyed and 35% are closed in other regions of Buner, Upper and Lower Dir, Shangla and

Malakand Districts (other regions being part of war against terrorism) (Pakistan Situation Report,

2009). Thus the adverse impacts of terrorism has been observed on tourism industry; educational

sector and ultimately on the overall economy of Pakistan.

Nobody knows the time period for which this downfall will last with the tourism industry and

same is the case with the terrorist threats. Hopes were residing with the war against the terrorism

but that also went unfruitful. Need of the hour is the collated efforts of all the nations to combat

and fight against the terrorism and to sustain the confidence of potential tourists. To save the

economy, important sectors must be fetched back to their normal pace of growth. Hence

terrorism must be wiped out to save the educational sector and tourism industry so that Pakistan

may keep a step towards economic and social progress to be the part of global progress.

Tourism is an important sector and contributes a lot towards the economic development like

according to report of World tourism forum’s Report on the tourism economic impact (2011),

tourism’s expected total contribution for year 2011 is 13.87% towards world’s GDP with

increase of 4.5% than 2010 and it will create 258 jobs around the globe. Its expected contribution

to Pakistan economy is 6.5% for the year of 2011 while its direct contribution would be 3.02% to

total GDP. Tourism will employee 1456000 persons in the year of 2011 (2.6% of the

employment), and it will offer 3.8% of the exports (visitors exports). But due to terrorism waves

in the country there has been an advice by the states to their citizens to be aware while moving to

Pakistan, which has restricted tourists and visitors to put their feet on the land of Pakistan. These

instructions have also negatively affected the business transactions between Pakistan and other

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countries and now business activities are shifted to other neighboring countries i.e. India, china

and Singapore.

Impact On GDP

Pakistan’s GDP has been one of the main economic factors that have been affected by the

terrorism exposed to the country. Consumers who were used to going out on a regular basis and

purchasing high volumes of merchandise have been afraid to do in the recent years. This has

caused a large decrease in consumer spending, which in turn has had a negative impact on the

Pakistan economy. “As the GDP growth rate has gone down from 8.40% in 2004-05 to 5.80% in

2007-08 and more recently it has reduced to 2.10% in 2008-09” (The Business Exchange).

According to experience curves and studies that have been conducted, it has been concluded that

it will take the Pakistan economy 33 years to double its size.

Impact on Exports

Pakistan conducts most of its trade with the United States and the European Union and

furthermore, according to sources, 50% of its exports are to these two locations. However, due to

terrorism threats on and from Pakistan, foreign governments have discouraged its citizens to visit

Pakistan. Several big companies who have had interest in procurement of textile (Pakistan’s

largest export product) have taken their business to neighboring countries such as: India, Hong

Kong, and Singapore. Pakistani business men have been denied a visa or scrutinized greatly

before they have been granted access to travel abroad and this has had a huge effect on their

exports. “The foreign buyers have exploited the situation to procure goods at lowest values.

Pakistani knitwear is better in quality than its competitors but fetch the lowest rates due to the

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denial of direct contact with outside businessmen” (Pu.edu). Exports are said to have gone down

from $19.22 billion to $6.1 billion dollars amidst the reduction of imports. The trade

balance/deficit is -4.5(billion $) and one of the reasons for this is because of the public global

image that has been portrayed of Pakistan.

Impact on FDI

In the country where macroeconomic indicators are plunging as a result of political turmoil and

terrorism, it is obvious that not only foreign investors but local investors will be petrified about

investing to get profit. As a result of this, the Pakistan FDI has reduced by about 1.475 billion or

52.8% during its last fiscal year(Pakistan News Watch). Some of the reasons that have been

stated for this sharp decline are as follows: future uncertainty, poor law and order, and power

shortages.

The war on terrorism declared by the United States after the September 11, 2001 suicide attacks

has badly affected tourism in Pakistan,

The exchange rate has gone up from 60.5(Rs/US$) to 84.5 (Rs/US$) which has a bad

effect on the economy.

According to recent surveys, it cost Rs340 billion on terrorism which has caused the

economy more than$35million in lost export, revenue, opportunities e.t.c

The inflation rate is currently at a high of 18.85%.

Pakistan tourism industry suffered a loss of 44 million dollars in the past year and has

gone down by 6% despite various campaigns.

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3.2-The Economic Growth Model with Tourism.

To investigate the responsiveness of income growth rate to revenues generated from tourism and

the typical sources of economic growth such as investment in physical and openness of the

economy as often measured by the terms of trade (or typically by ratio of the sum of imports and

exports to the GDP), and foreign direct investment, and, we specify a double log-linear Cobb-

Douglass production function as:

Consider the model

ln PCI=α0+α 1 lnTR+α 2 lnGFCF+α3 ln FDI+α 4 lnTOT +α 5 ln LFP

Real GDP per capita income is the dependent variable and tourist receipts, gross fixed capital

formation, foreign direct investment; terms of trade and labor force participation are independent

variable.

Summary of the Variables

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Variable Name Variable Description

lnPCI Natural log of real GDP per capita.

lnTRP

Natural log of tourist receipts per capita.

lnGFCF

Natural log of gross fixed capital formation

lnFDI

Natural log of foreign direct investment

lnTOT Natural log of terms of trade

lnLFP Natural log of Labor Force participation rate

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VARIABLE EXPECTED RELATIONSHIP

TOURIST RECIEPT Positive Relationship With Per Capita Income

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT Positive and Negative Relationship With Per

Capita Income

LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION Natural log of foreign direct investment

GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION Natural log of terms of trade

TERM OF TRADE Natural log of Labor Force participation rate

3.3-Expected Relationship of Variable

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3.4-Sources of the Data

The data used for this study are taken from economic survey of the ministry of finance and

International Financial Statistics. Some information has been taken from fifty years statistics for

Pakistan published by the Federal Bureau of Statistics. The time series data for the period from

1980 to 2008 is used.

Chapter 5

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CONCLUSION AND POLICY IMPLICATION

In our study we try to check the relationship between per capita income and its determinants. Our

explanatory variables are tourist receipt, foreign direct investment, term of trade, gross fixed

capital formation, labor force participation. Conclude that tourist receipt have positive effect on

per capita income because this increase in receipts is very important for the economic

significance of tourism. The increase of real per capita international tourism receipts also implies

an income increase of the tourist from the countries they come from. As the income of tourists

increase, they will spend more, and they are more likely to look for destinations with higher

tourist products. The foreign direct investment (FDI) both positively and

negatively related with the real per capita (GDP) growth rate. Labor force

participation has positive effect on per capita income, which increases the

consumption level. In today’s era human resources are as important as

financial resources to any organization.

Pakistan has several unique opportunities for different types of tourism. Its geographical location

has made it a historical and cultural hub for the tourism. Pakistan has great potential in coastal

tourism, mountain climbing and layout tourism adventures trip and tremendous opportunities in

the areas of echo and safari tourism. So, the following suggestions are put forward for the growth

of tourism industry in Pakistan.

Government should concentrate on the means of transportation, communication and

power for the promotion of tourism industry in Pakistan.

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To attract the foreign travelers, the security issues should be handled in a best way.

Tax structure plays a vital role in industrialization process. The government should give

tax incentives to the air fares, hotels and other tourism related industries.

The cultural and traditional festivals should be organized to create attractions for tourists.

The Journals, Brushers with maps and proper guidance should be placed in all the

important hotels and tourists gateways so that the tourist from any country can benefit

from it without any language barrier.

The electronic and print media can also play an important role in enhancing the demand

for tourism in Pakistan.

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