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Topic 1.5 Numerical Model GuidanceIWTC-V (Cairns, Australia, 2002)
Shuyi S. Chen1 and Naomi Surgi2
1University of Miami/RSMAS (USA)2NOAA/NCEP/EMC (USA)
Working Group: S. Braun, I. Ginis, C.-S. Liu, K.Walsh
• Model physics
• Air-sea and air-land coupling
• Vortex initialization (inner-core data assimilations)
• Environmental effects
• Model configuration
Operational Modeling Efforts
• High-resolution atmospheric modeling (impact on intensity and quantitative precipitation forecasting)
• Environmental effects on tropical cyclones• Moist convective processes• Atmospheric boundary layer• Air-sea interface (atmosphere-wave-ocean
coupling)
Research Modeling Efforts
• Structure and Intensity Changes (e.g., eyewall replacement cycle)
• Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting
Special Focus
Uncoupled
Hurricane Floyd (1999)
Sensitivity to Model Resolution
15 km 1.67 km
1.67 km 5 km
Sensitivity to Physical Parameterizations
Braun and Tao (2000)
Braun and Tao (2000)
Hurricane Bonnie
(Simple Ice)(GSFC)