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Tools for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation. Abigail Baca The World Bank Group GFDRR Labs. How to Manage Disaster Risk in the Pacific?. Not If, But When…. The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (HFA) : - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010
Tools for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation
Abigail Baca The World Bank Group
GFDRR Labs
Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010
The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (HFA) :1. Ensure risk reduction is a national and a local priority
with a strong institutional basis for implementation.2. Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance
early warning.3. Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a
culture of safety and resilience at all levels.4. Reduce underlying risk factors.5. Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response
at all levels.
How to Manage Disaster Risk in the Pacific?
Not If, But When…
Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010
Climate ChangeAdaptation
Analysis of financial exposure
Immediate damage assessment
Scenario analysis for emergency
preparedness
Cost Benefit analysis for mitigation and
prevention investments
Infrastructure design
Land Use/ Territorial planning
Visualization of hazard and risk
Risk Assessment
Tools to Assist Decision Making
Early WarningSystems
“When?”… But also What and How??
Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010
Risk Modeling
Risk(i.e probable damage/loss)
Hazard(i.e. Cyclone wind)
Exposure(i.e. houses, crops)
Vulnerability(of house to wind)
Disaster Impact Analysis - Scenario or Stochastic -
Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010
San Juan del SurNicaragua
Haza
rdEx
posu
re
Risk:Physical Damage, Loss $
Scenario ModelingVu
lner
abili
ty
Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010
Stochastic Hazard Modeling
Frequency :How likely is this event? Annual probability of occurrence (i.e. 1/ 100)
Severity :How strong is the event?Hurricane Cat 5What does the event look like?Track, Point of landfall, wind field, etc
Stochastic Event Set = All physically possible eventsMore that historical record, estimate future events
Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010
Multiple Hazards
EARTHQUAKE Tropical Cyclone INTENSE RAIN VOLCANO
TSUNAMI
GROUND SHAKING / LIQUEFACTION
LANDSLIDES
- GROUND SHAKING- HURRICANE RAINFALL
- OTHER RAINFALL
STRONG WINDS
STORM SURGE
HURRICANE RAINFALL
FLOODS
- HURRICANE RAINFALL- OTHER RAINFALL
ASH FALLS
BALLISTIC EJECTIONS
PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
LAVA FLOWS
Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010
Powerful, accurate models need lots and lots of DATA
Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010
Hazards
Exposure
Vulnerability
Risk
+
+
+
Applications
Visualization of hazard and risk
Territorial planning
Infrastructure design
Cost Benefit analysis for mitigation and prevention investments
Scenario analysis for emergency preparedness
Immediate damage assessment
Analysis of financial exposure
Climate Change
Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010
Climate ChangeAdaptation
Analysis of financial exposure
Immediate damage assessment
Scenario analysis for emergency
preparedness
Cost Benefit analysis for mitigation and
prevention investments
Infrastructure design
Land Use/ Territorial planning
Visualization of hazard and risk
Risk Assessment
Tools to Assist Decision Making
Early WarningSystems
“When?”… But also what and how??
Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010
Land Use Planning and Zoning
Seismic hazard map Landslides hazard map Flood hazard map
Identification of main hazards
Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010
Cost Benefit Analysis
Retrofitting of Critical Infrastructure
Bogota Disaster Vulnerability Reduction programSchools Retrofitted 2004-2008 : 201 School and Administration Buildings Assessed
Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010
Climate Change Impact on Disasters
EARTHQUAKE HURRICANE INTENSE RAIN VOLCANO
TSUNAMI
GROUND SHAKING / LIQUEFACTION
LANDSLIDES
- GROUND SHAKING- HURRICANE RAINFALL
- OTHER RAINFALL
STRONG WINDS
STORM SURGE
HURRICANE RAINFALL
FLOODS
- HURRICANE RAINFALL- OTHER RAINFALL
ASH FALLS
BALLISTIC EJECTIONS
PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
LAVA FLOWS
Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010
T=100 AÑOS EVENTO EXTRAORDINARIO CATASTRÓFICO
PRESENTE estado actual sin
obras de mitigación
FUTURO con obras de
mitigación diseñadas para
T=100 años
T=100 AÑOS EVENTO EXTRAORDINARIO CATASTRÓFICO
PRESENTE estado actual sin
obras de mitigación
FUTURO con obras de
mitigación diseñadas para
T=100 años
Flood Risk : explore climate change scenarios Base Model
T=100 AÑOS EVENTO EXTRAORDINARIO CATASTRÓFICO
PRESENTE estado actual sin
obras de mitigación
FUTURO con obras de
mitigación diseñadas para
T=100 años
Model A Model B
Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010
How much to disasters really cost??-Government reserves for Emergency Response-Risk Financing/ Risk Transfer
Financial Analysis of Risk
Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010
Hazards
Exposure
Vulnerability
Risk
+
+
+
Applications
Visualization of hazard and risk
Territorial planning
Infrastructure design
Cost Benefit analysis for mitigation and prevention investments
Scenario analysis for emergency preparedness
Immediate damage assessment
Analysis of financial exposure
Climate Change
Pacific Island Countries GIS/RS User Conference Suva, Fiji November 2010
Not IF but WHEN…. So What and How?
Abigail [email protected]
