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−20 −16 −12 −8 −4 0 4 8 12 16 20 −20
−16
−12
−8
−4
0
4
8
12
16
20 2xCO2−1xCO2 A30 QFLUX NINT ANN
Low Cloud Cover Change (%)
SW
Clo
ud
Forc
ing
Ch
an
ge
(W/m
**2
)
−20 −16 −12 −8 −4 0 4 8 12 16 20 −20
−16
−12
−8
−4
0
4
8
12
16
20 Conditional 2xCO2−1xCO2 A30 QFLUX NINT ANN
Low Cloud Cover Change (%)
SW
Clo
ud
Forc
ing
Ch
an
ge
(W/m
**2
)34% 5%
43% 18%
63% 3%
17% 18%
GISS GCM: 2.6-2.9°C climate sensitivity…but Δ low cloud cover ~ -2%
Why? Masking by high cloud increases
ARM SGP SCMsimulations:
Good place to look for convection errors is in
weak dynamical forcing conditions
(entrainment?)
Song et al. (2013)
DayNight
YOTC MJO 20-day hindcasts (2009 Event E)Hovmöller composite of all W-H phase 1 rain anomalies
TRMM TMI CMIP5
+ strongerentrainment,rain evaporation,downdrafts
+ Cold pool
SCM, AMIE-DYNAMO forcing, 3 hr relaxationConvective cloud top height vs. column water vapor
KAZR and SCM Forcing Data
40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 COLUMN WATER VAPOR (mm)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16 18
CL
OU
D T
OP
HE
IGH
T (
km
)
-1.6
-1.4
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
log10(%)
KAZR
GAN AR5 W/Relaxation of Forcings Tot=763 (nint)
40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 COLUMN WATER VAPOR (mm)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
CL
OU
D T
OP
HE
IGH
T (
km
)
-1.6
-1.4
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
log10(%)
GAN AR5 07 W/Relaxation of Forcings Tot=858 (nint)
40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 COLUMN WATER VAPOR (mm)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
CL
OU
D T
OP
HE
IGH
T (
km
)
-1.6
-1.4
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
log10(%) GAN AR5 66 W/Relaxation of Forcings Tot=931 (nint)
40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 COLUMN WATER VAPOR (mm)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
CL
OU
D T
OP
HE
IGH
T (
km
)
-1.6
-1.4
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
log10(%)
CMIP5
+ strongerentrainment,etc.
+ cold pool