Tom Peters’Tom Peters’

The (Murky) Future The (Murky) Future of Employment.of Employment.

Room For Room For Excellence?Excellence?

U 3 A/University of the Third AgeU 3 A/University of the Third AgeTakaka, New ZealandTakaka, New Zealand

27 March 201327 March 2013

Conrad Hilton, at a gala celebrating his Conrad Hilton, at a gala celebrating his career, was called to the podium and career, was called to the podium and

asked,asked, “What were the most important

lessons you learned in your long and

distinguished career?” His answer …His answer …

““remember remember to tuck the to tuck the

shower curtain shower curtain inside the inside the bathtubbathtub.”.”

““The art of war does not The art of war does not require complicated require complicated

maneuvers; the simplest are maneuvers; the simplest are the best and common sense is the best and common sense is fundamental. From which one fundamental. From which one

might wonder how it is might wonder how it is

generals make blunders; generals make blunders; itit is because theis because theyy tr tryy to to

be cleverbe clever.”.” —Napoleon—Napoleon

All Hell Is All Hell Is Breaking LooseBreaking Loose

“ … “ … but you but you see, papa see, papa

……

“ … “ … they they can’t can’t

outsource outsource snow.”snow.”

Got stuck in Got stuck in BucharestBucharest; sorry I ; sorry I couldn’t be in couldn’t be in TakakaTakaka this morning …* this morning …*

*“Cisco TelePresence On-stage Experience”*“Cisco TelePresence On-stage Experience” ((HoloHologgrarapphic hic ppresenceresence//The Silent Language of LeadersThe Silent Language of Leaders/C.K. Goman)/C.K. Goman)

GGeneticsenetics

RRoboticsobotics

IInformaticsnformatics

NNanotechnologyanotechnology

““In some sense you can In some sense you can argue that the science argue that the science

fiction scenario is fiction scenario is already starting to already starting to

happen. The computers happen. The computers are in control. We just are in control. We just

live in their world.”live in their world.” —Danny Hillis, —Danny Hillis,

Thinking MachinesThinking Machines

Q3 2011/BLSQ3 2011/BLS+3.1/+3.1/Non-farm productivity growthNon-farm productivity growth

+3.8/+3.8/Non-farm outputNon-farm output

+0.6/+0.6/Non-farm hours workedNon-farm hours worked

+5.4/+5.4/Manufacturing productivityManufacturing productivity

++4.74.7//Manufacturing outputManufacturing output

-0.6 / /Manufacturing hours Manufacturing hours

workedworked

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/03 November 2011Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/03 November 2011

““The median The median worker is losing worker is losing the race against the race against the machine.”the machine.”

——Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Race Against the MachineThe Race Against the Machine

Post-Great Recession: Post-Great Recession: Equipment Equipment expenditures +26%; payrolls flat/expenditures +26%; payrolls flat/““Great Recession … lack of hiring Great Recession … lack of hiring

rather than increase in layoffs”/“… rather than increase in layoffs”/“… breakage of the historic link between breakage of the historic link between

value creation and job creation”value creation and job creation”

The “U-shaped Curve” The “U-shaped Curve” Phenomenon:Phenomenon:

High-skilled Waaaaay Up!!!High-skilled Waaaaay Up!!!Low-skilled: Stable/UpLow-skilled: Stable/Up

Middle: Middle: Down/Down/DownSource:Source: Race AGAINST the Machine, Race AGAINST the Machine, Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfeeErik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee

Median inflation adjusted wages, Median inflation adjusted wages, men 30-50 with jobs, men 30-50 with jobs, 1969-20091969-2009: :

$33K,$33K, -27%-27%

Source: Source: “The Slow Disappearance of the American “The Slow Disappearance of the American Working Man,”Working Man,” Bloomberg BusinessweekBloomberg Businessweek/08.11/08.11

Bachelor’s degree, age Bachelor’s degree, age 25-34: 40% F; 30% M25-34: 40% F; 30% M

Graduate degree Graduate degree students: 60% F; 40% Mstudents: 60% F; 40% M

Source: Source: Sydney Morning HeraldSydney Morning Herald /26.03.12 /26.03.12

““I speak to you with a feminine voice. It’s the voice of I speak to you with a feminine voice. It’s the voice of democracy, of equality. I am certain, ladies and democracy, of equality. I am certain, ladies and

gentlemen, gentlemen, that this will that this will be the women’s be the women’s centurcenturyy.. In the Portuguese language, In the Portuguese language,

words such as life, soul, and hope are of the feminine words such as life, soul, and hope are of the feminine

gender, as are other words like courage and sincerity.”gender, as are other words like courage and sincerity.”

——President President Dilma RousseffDilma Rousseff of Brazil, 1st woman to keynote the UN General Assembly of Brazil, 1st woman to keynote the UN General Assembly

China China tootoo/Foxconn:/Foxconn:

1,000,000 1,000,000 robots in next robots in next

3 years3 yearsSource:Source: Race AGAINST the Machine, Race AGAINST the Machine, Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfeeErik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee

““The root of our problem is notThe root of our problem is not that we’re in a Great Recessionthat we’re in a Great Recession

or a Great Stagnation, but ratheror a Great Stagnation, but rather that we are in the early that we are in the early

throes of a throes of a Great Restructuring. Our . Our

technologies are racing ahead,technologies are racing ahead, but our skills and organizationsbut our skills and organizations

are lagging behind.”are lagging behind.”

Source:Source: Race AGAINST the Machine, Race AGAINST the Machine, Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfeeErik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee

““Algorithms have already written symphonies Algorithms have already written symphonies as moving as those composed by as moving as those composed by

BeethovenBeethoven, picked through legalese , picked through legalese

with the deftness of a senior with the deftness of a senior lawlaw ppartnerartner, diagnosed patients with more , diagnosed patients with more

accuracy than a accuracy than a doctordoctor, written news , written news

articles with the smooth hand of a seasonedarticles with the smooth hand of a seasoned

rerepporterorter, and driven vehicles on urban , and driven vehicles on urban highways with far better control than a human highways with far better control than a human

driverdriver.”.”

——Christopher Steiner,Christopher Steiner, Automate This: How Automate This: How Algorithms Came to Rule the WorldAlgorithms Came to Rule the World

““In some sense you can In some sense you can argue that the science argue that the science

fiction scenario is fiction scenario is already starting to already starting to

happen. The computers happen. The computers are in control. We just are in control. We just

live in their world.”live in their world.” —Danny Hillis, —Danny Hillis,

Thinking MachinesThinking Machines

Multiple Choice ExaminationMultiple Choice Examination

You will you lose your job to; You will you lose your job to; choose one …choose one …

(1)(1) An offshore An offshore contractor?contractor?

(2)(2) A computer?A computer?(3)(3) A robot?A robot?

Source: Dan PinkSource: Dan Pink

““I believe that ninety I believe that ninety percent of white-collar jobs percent of white-collar jobs

in the U.S. will be either in the U.S. will be either destroyed or altered destroyed or altered

beyond recognition in the beyond recognition in the next 10 to 15 years.”next 10 to 15 years.” ((22 22

May 2000May 2000 /cover/ /cover/TimeTime magazine) magazine)

I. Manifesto/Polemic:I. Manifesto/Polemic:Our People Are Our Our People Are Our

Only Asset!Only Asset!

A 15-Point Human Capital Development A 15-Point Human Capital Development ManifestoManifesto

1. “Corporate social responsibility” starts at 1. “Corporate social responsibility” starts at homehome

i.e., inside the enterprise! i.e., inside the enterprise! MAXIMIZINGMAXIMIZINGGDD/Gross Domestic Development ofGDD/Gross Domestic Development ofthe workforce is the primary sourcethe workforce is the primary sourceof mid-term and beyond growth andof mid-term and beyond growth andprofitability—and maximizes national profitability—and maximizes national productivity and wealth.productivity and wealth.

Source: Source: World Strategy Forum: The New Rules/World Strategy Forum: The New Rules/ Reframing Capitalism; Seoul, Reframing Capitalism; Seoul,

Korea/15.06.12 Korea/15.06.12

People People FirsFirst! People t! People SeconSecond ! People d ! People Third!Third! People People Third!Third! People People FourthFourth! People ! People SixthSixth! !

People People FifthFifth!!

7 Steps to Sustaining Success & Excellence7 Steps to Sustaining Success & Excellence

You take care of the people. You take care of the people. The people take care of the service. The people take care of the service. The service takes care of the customer.The service takes care of the customer.The customer takes care of the profit. The customer takes care of the profit. The profit takes care of the re-investment.The profit takes care of the re-investment.The re-investment takes care of the re-invention. The re-investment takes care of the re-invention. The re-invention takes care of the future.The re-invention takes care of the future.(And at every step the only measure is EXCELLENCE.)(And at every step the only measure is EXCELLENCE.)

7 Steps to Sustaining Success7 Steps to Sustaining Success

You take care of the people. You take care of the people. The people take care of the service. The people take care of the service. The service takes care of the customer.The service takes care of the customer.The customer takes care of the profit. The customer takes care of the profit. The profit takes care of the re-investment.The profit takes care of the re-investment.The re-investment takes care of the re-invention. The re-investment takes care of the re-invention. The re-invention takes care of the future.The re-invention takes care of the future.(And at every step the only measure is EXCELLENCE.)(And at every step the only measure is EXCELLENCE.)

2.2. Regardless of the transient Regardless of the transient external situation, development external situation, development of “human capital” is of “human capital” is always the always the #1 priority.#1 priority. This is true n general, in This is true n general, in particular in difficult times which demand particular in difficult times which demand resilience—and uniquely true in this age in resilience—and uniquely true in this age in which IMAGINATIVE brainwork is de facto the which IMAGINATIVE brainwork is de facto the only plausible survival strategy for higher only plausible survival strategy for higher wage nations.wage nations.

““Business has to give people enriching, Business has to give people enriching,

rewarding lives …rewarding lives … or it's or it's simsimppllyy not not

worth doinworth doing.”g.”

——Richard BransonRichard Branson

5.5. The training budget takes precedence The training budget takes precedence over the capital budget. PERIOD.over the capital budget. PERIOD. It’s It’s easier fun to get you picture taken next to a hew easier fun to get you picture taken next to a hew machine. But how do you get a photo of a new and machine. But how do you get a photo of a new and much improved attitude in a key distribution center? much improved attitude in a key distribution center? But the odds are 25:1 that the new attitude will add But the odds are 25:1 that the new attitude will add more to the bottom line than will the glorious state-more to the bottom line than will the glorious state-of-the-art machine.of-the-art machine.

6.6. Human capital development should Human capital development should routinely sit atop any agenda or routinely sit atop any agenda or document associated with enterprise document associated with enterprise strategy.strategy. Most any initiative you undertake Most any initiative you undertake should formally address implications for and should formally address implications for and contributions to human capital asset development. contributions to human capital asset development.

I would hazard a guess I would hazard a guess that most CEOs see IT that most CEOs see IT

investments as a investments as a “strategic necessity,” “strategic necessity,”

but see training but see training expenses as “a expenses as “a

necessary evil.” necessary evil.”

7. 7. Every individual on the payroll should Every individual on the payroll should have a benchmarked professional have a benchmarked professional growth strategy. growth strategy. Every leader at every Every leader at every level should be evaluated in no small level should be evaluated in no small measure on the collective effectiveness measure on the collective effectiveness of individual growth strategies—that is, of individual growth strategies—that is, each individual’s absolute growth is of each individual’s absolute growth is of direct relevance to every leader’s direct relevance to every leader’s assessed performance. assessed performance.

““An organization can only become An organization can only become the-best-version-of-itself to the the-best-version-of-itself to the

extent that the people who drive extent that the people who drive that organization are striving to that organization are striving to

become better-versions-of-become better-versions-of-themselves. … When a company themselves. … When a company

forgets that it exists to serve forgets that it exists to serve customers, it quickly goes out of customers, it quickly goes out of business. Our employees are our business. Our employees are our

first customers, and our most first customers, and our most important customers.”important customers.” — —Matthew KellyMatthew Kelly

II. Manifesto/Polemic: II. Manifesto/Polemic: Best Teacher CorpsBest Teacher Corps

As Bedrock!As Bedrock!

Manifesto/Polemic: Best Teacher Corps Manifesto/Polemic: Best Teacher Corps Flourish!Flourish!

““The most effectively The most effectively educated nations flourish.”educated nations flourish.”

Or: “The most effectively Or: “The most effectively educatededucated andand most most entreentreppreneurialreneurial nations nations

flourish.”flourish.”

The very best and the very The very best and the very brightest and the most brightest and the most

energetic and enthusiastic energetic and enthusiastic and entrepreneurial and and entrepreneurial and

tech-savvy of our university tech-savvy of our university graduates must—graduates must—mustmust,,

not should—be lured into not should—be lured into teaching.teaching.

““Every child is Every child is born an artist. The born an artist. The trick is to remain trick is to remain

an artist.”an artist.” —Picasso—Picasso

III. Manifesto/Polemic: III. Manifesto/Polemic: Value Through Value Through

Creativity!Creativity!

““Human Human creativitycreativity

is the ultimate is the ultimate economic economic

resource.”resource.” —Richard Florida—Richard Florida

Design Design RulesRules!!

APPLEAPPLE market market capitalizationcapitalization

> Exxon Mobil* > Exxon Mobil*

*August 2011*August 2011

““Only one company Only one company can be the cheapest. can be the cheapest. All others must use All others must use design.”design.” —Rodney Fitch, Fitch & Co.—Rodney Fitch, Fitch & Co.

Source: Source: InsightsInsights, definitions of design, the Design Council [UK], definitions of design, the Design Council [UK]

Better By DesignBetter By Design**: The Design49: The Design49

4646. . DESIGN MANIA IS A DESIGN MANIA IS A NATIONAL ECONOMIC ISSUE NATIONAL ECONOMIC ISSUE OF THE FIRST ORDEROF THE FIRST ORDER..

47. “Small” is no disadvantage in an Age of Creativity!47. “Small” is no disadvantage in an Age of Creativity!48.48. There is no such thing as a “National Design Advantage” unless the There is no such thing as a “National Design Advantage” unless the current school system is Destroyed & Re-imaginedcurrent school system is Destroyed & Re-imagined—to emphasize —to emphasize creativity and risk-taking and acceptance of failure. (Design Mindfulness … creativity and risk-taking and acceptance of failure. (Design Mindfulness … the suppression thereof … typically begins at Age the suppression thereof … typically begins at Age 44.).)

49.49. How sweet it is!How sweet it is! (If your head is screwed on right.)(If your head is screwed on right.)

**Auckland/30 March 2005Auckland/30 March 2005

IV. Manifesto/Polemic: IV. Manifesto/Polemic: EntrepreneurialEntrepreneurial Pre-eminence!Pre-eminence!Entrepreneurial Entrepreneurial

Ubiquity!Ubiquity!

““We are in no danger of runningWe are in no danger of running out of new combinations try. out of new combinations try.

EvenEven if technology froze today, we if technology froze today, we have more possible ways of have more possible ways of

configuring the different configuring the different applications, machines, tasks, and applications, machines, tasks, and

distribution channels to create distribution channels to create new processes and products than new processes and products than we could ever exhaust.”we could ever exhaust.” —Erik Brynjolfsson and —Erik Brynjolfsson and

Andrew McAfee, The Race Against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution Is Andrew McAfee, The Race Against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution Is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity and Irreversibly Transforming Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity and Irreversibly Transforming

Employment and the Economy Employment and the Economy

Jim’s Mowing CanadaJim’s Mowing CanadaJim’s Mowing UKJim’s Mowing UKJim’s AntennasJim’s Antennas

Jim’s BookkeepingJim’s BookkeepingJim’s Building MaintenanceJim’s Building Maintenance

Jim’s Carpet CleaningJim’s Carpet CleaningJim’s Car CleaningJim’s Car Cleaning

Jim’s Computer ServicesJim’s Computer Services

Jim’s Dog WashJim’s Dog WashJim’s Driving SchoolJim’s Driving School

Jim’s FencingJim’s FencingJim’s FloorsJim’s Floors

Jim’s PaintingJim’s PaintingJim’s PavingJim’s Paving

Jim’s Pergolas [gazebos]Jim’s Pergolas [gazebos]Jim’s Pool CareJim’s Pool Care

Jim’s Pressure CleaningJim’s Pressure CleaningJim’s RoofingJim’s Roofing

Jim’s Security DoorsJim’s Security DoorsJim’s TreesJim’s Trees

Jim’s Window CleaningJim’s Window CleaningJim’s WindscreensJim’s Windscreens

Note: Download, free, Jim Penman’s book: What Will They Franchise Next?

The Story of Jim’s Group (3,200 franchisees)

Retail Superstars: Retail Superstars: Inside the 25 Best Inside the 25 Best

Independent Independent Stores in Stores in

AmericaAmerica —by George Whalin—by George Whalin

Jungle Jim’s International Market, Jungle Jim’s International Market, FairfieldFairfield, , OhioOhio:: “An “An

adventure in adventure in ‘‘shoshoppppertainmentertainment,’,’ as as Jungle Jim’s Jungle Jim’s calls it, begins in the parking lot calls it, begins in the parking lot and goes on to and goes on to

1,600 cheeses1,600 cheeses and, yes, and, yes, 1,400 varieties of 1,400 varieties of hot saucehot sauce —not to mention —not to mention 12,000 wines 12,000 wines priced from $8 to $8,000priced from $8 to $8,000 a bottle; all this is a bottle; all this is

brought to you by brought to you by 4,000 vendors4,000 vendors.. Customers Customers come from every corner of the globe.” come from every corner of the globe.”

Bronner’s Christmas Wonderland, Bronner’s Christmas Wonderland, FrankenmuthFrankenmuth, ,

MichiMichigganan, pop 5,000:, pop 5,000: 98,000-square-foot98,000-square-foot

“shop” features the likes of “shop” features the likes of 6,000 Christmas 6,000 Christmas ornaments, 50,000 trimsornaments, 50,000 trims, and anything else , and anything else you can name if it pertains to Christmas.you can name if it pertains to Christmas.

Source: George Whalin, Source: George Whalin, Retail SuperstarsRetail Superstars

etc.etc.PRSX/Paragon PRSX/Paragon

Railcar Railcar Salvage*Salvage*

*Salvaged railcars into bridges, etc.*Salvaged railcars into bridges, etc.

Muhammad Yunus:Muhammad Yunus: ““All human All human beings are beings are

entrepreneursentrepreneurs.. When we were When we were in the caves we were all self-employed in the caves we were all self-employed

. . . finding our food, feeding . . . finding our food, feeding ourselves. That’s where human history ourselves. That’s where human history

began . . . As civilization came we began . . . As civilization came we suppressed it. We became labor suppressed it. We became labor

because they stamped us, ‘You are because they stamped us, ‘You are labor.’ We forgot that we are labor.’ We forgot that we are entrepreneurs.”entrepreneurs.” —Muhammad Yunus/

The News Hour/PBS/1122.2006

““The prospect of contracting a gofer on an aThe prospect of contracting a gofer on an a la carte basis is enticing. For instance, la carte basis is enticing. For instance,

wouldn’t it be convenient if I could outsource wouldn’t it be convenient if I could outsource someone to write a paragraph here, explaining someone to write a paragraph here, explaining the history of outsourcing in America? . Good the history of outsourcing in America? . Good

idea! I went ahead and commissioned just such idea! I went ahead and commissioned just such a paragraph from Get Friday, a ‘virtual a paragraph from Get Friday, a ‘virtual

personal assistant- firm based in Bangalore. … personal assistant- firm based in Bangalore. … The paragraph arrived in my in-box ten days The paragraph arrived in my in-box ten days

after I ordered it. It was 1,356 words. There is a after I ordered it. It was 1,356 words. There is a bibliography with eleven sources. … At $14 an bibliography with eleven sources. … At $14 an hour for seven hours of work, the cost came to hour for seven hours of work, the cost came to $98. …”$98. …” —Patricia Marx, “Outsource Yourself,” —Patricia Marx, “Outsource Yourself,” The New Yorker, The New Yorker,

01.14.201301.14.2013 (Marx describes in detail contracting out everything (Marx describes in detail contracting out everything associated with hosting her book club—including the provision of associated with hosting her book club—including the provision of

“witty” comments on Proust, since she hadn’t had time to read the “witty” comments on Proust, since she hadn’t had time to read the book—excellent comments only set her back $5; the writer/contractor book—excellent comments only set her back $5; the writer/contractor

turnedturned out to be a 14-year-old girl from New Jersey.)out to be a 14-year-old girl from New Jersey.)

MittELstandMittELstand* * ****

**“agile creatures darting between the legs of“agile creatures darting between the legs of the multinational monsters”the multinational monsters” ((Bloomberg BusinessWeek, Bloomberg BusinessWeek, 10.10)10.10)

**E.g. Goldmann Produktion**E.g. Goldmann Produktion

““Be the best. Be the best. It’s the only It’s the only

market that’s market that’s not crowded.”not crowded.”

From: From: Retail Superstars: Inside the 25 BestRetail Superstars: Inside the 25 Best Independent Stores in America,Independent Stores in America, George Whalin George Whalin

(1) (1) People first!People first!(2) (2) Superstar teacher corps!Superstar teacher corps!(3) (3) Value through Value through

creativity!creativity!(4) (4) Entrepreneurial Entrepreneurial

ubiquity!ubiquity!