To PredictByMichel GodetReflections on theField andDifferenceshetween Foresightand La Prospectiveor to Buildthe Future?A pioneer from the French schoolof la prospective discusses fhedevelopmentof futures-studiesmethodologies and the imperativeof making methods accessibleto all.46THEFUTURISTMay-June 2012ivvwv.ivfs.org BRIAN HAUCH /ISTOCKPHOTO"W"prospective,similartom/TT'-'^^conceptof"strate-1jfgicforesight,"isthei - ^\r%>^ disciplinedevotedtosheddinglight on acfionin the pres-entbyusingthepowerofpossibleand desirablefutures.ThefatherofthedisciplineinFrance,industrialistandstatesmanGastonBerger(1896-1960),usedahighlyappropriateimage: Thefasteryoudrive,thefartheraheadyourheadlightsshouldshine, haprospec-tive acts like a spotlight designed nottoforecastthefuturebuttoillumi-nate acfionsto take now, in the pres-ent. It really focuses on the now first.Bergersaidthattheattitudeinlaprospective reliesuponfiveprin-ciples: see wide, see far,see deeply,thinkofthe humanfactor,andtakerisks. To these principles, let me addmy twist, three new ambitions:First,"seedifferently,"whichmeans think outside the box, bewareofclichs, and become aware of col-lecfive mirages.Second,"seetogether,"whichisimportantnowbecauseinBerger'sdaytheideawastoenlightenthe"prince"ordecisionmaker. Even iftherewascollegialityamongintel-lectuals,politicians,andbusiness-menwhooccasionallyexchangedideas,thevisionwasratheraristo-cratic.Futuresexerciseswerenotparficipatorywith the meaning of in-tegrafingthe actors, or stakeholders.And third, "have rigor for an intel-lectualnon-discipline."Therearefiveconditionsforrigor: pertinence,consistency / coherence,plausibility,importance, and transparency.Ofcourse, to bea prospectivist(orfuturist), you have to be a bit cheeky,nonconformist,andmultidisci-plinary, butyouneedmethods, too,that help reduce the collecfiveincon-sistencies. These methods have to bebothrigorousandsimple enough tobe appropriatedthatis, used by asmany others as possible.Throughoutmycareer, the easiestthingwastomakecomplicatedmethods,likescenarioprobabiliza-tion, whereas the hardestthingwasto create simple methods that every-onecouldunderstand,e.g.,prospec-tive workshops.Methods and ExperienceForsome,includingBergerhim-self, laprospectivecould besummedup in an atfitude;forothers, it abso-lutelyrequiredmethods.Manypeoplerejectmethodsbecausetheydon't understandthem. Yet it is pos-sible to show them the advantages ofthe methodsforexample, their usein revealing variables that would nothave been noticed otherwise.In1972, duringa nuclearenergystudymandatedbytheFrenchAtomicEnergyCommission,thegroup took into account 51 variables.The structuralanalysishighlightedtheimportanceofthevariablesof"sensitivityto externaleffects"and"siteproblemsforthelocations ofplants."This raisedthe issueoftheimportanceof social acceptability indevelopingnuclearenergy.Itshowedtheproblemsthatthe EDF(French Hydro-electricCorporafion)wouldactually havein trying to setupa nuclearplantin the municipal-ityof Plogoff,wherelocalprotests(1978-1981)ledto theprojectbeingcanceled.Anotherchallenge is to get peopleto think about the unthinkable. Basi-cally,peopletendnotto hearwhatdisturbsthem.Inotherwords,everythingthatpleases us is correctand what bothers us is w^rong.In1990-1991, afutures-thinkingexercise for the French iron and steelsectorin 2005 yieldedsixpertinentandconsistentscenarios. The use ofthe Prob-Expert softwarethat we de-velopedshowedthatthesesix sce-narios coveredonly 40% of thefieldofprobablefuturesandactually re-vealedthreenew, farmore probablescenariosthattheexpertshadnotevenidentifiedbecausethosethreew^ent against conventional thinking.This caseshowstheadvantage of"probabilisticinteractionmethods,"which take intoaccount the interac-tionbetweeneventsandverifywhetherthe scenarios studiedcovera reasonable part of the field of prob-able futures.EventhoughI introducedmeth-ods into the field of futuresstudies, Ithinkthatscenariosareoverdone.Makingscenariosisfine,butsowhat?Onceascenarioisdrafted,whatdowedototakeaction,tomake whateverwe wantto happenor notto happen?We shouldreallybe turning them into a project-basedapproach. The tools shouldbe usedappropriately.Methodsarenecessary,buttoparaphrasethe lateFrench intellec-tualandsurrealist Andr Breton, wemustuseallthelevers;inotherwords,rigor,imagination,rationalknowledge,emotionalknowledge,left and right brain.Ialsobelievethat,ifmyimpacthasbeenthroughmethods,itisprobablybecausesofewpeoplehave worked on them. I didn't reallytrytodevelopnewmethods,be-cause the exisfing toolbox already al-lows me to approach all problems.For me, the developmentof meth-odsdoesnotmeaninventingnewones, butrathercreatingnewfron-tierswherethosemethodsmaybedisseminated and appropriated. Andpeople have appropriatedthis teach-ingindifferentcountries,addingtheir own culture eachfime.Withouta lotoffanfare,Iraisedthe fundsto put the Prob-Expert pro-spectivesoftwareonlinethroughtheEntrepreneursoftheFutureCircle. Imanagedtogetallthetoolsup-loadedsopeoplecandownloadthemforfree.Since2003, thesoft-wareonlinehasbeendownloaded40,000 times.I hope thatmy legacyto thefieldisthatItrainedpeopleand"in-fected"manywiththe healthypro-spectivevirus.IhavecopiedthemodeloftheCatholicChurchoftrainingforeignstudentswhobe-came teachers in their own countries.Whilethereisgreatmaturityinthefield,laprospectiveis nota solidfieldin France; every year, newcom-ersarrive whodo not know^ its his-tory.Allprospectivistsorfuturistsshould know a minimumamount ofthe history, development,andthink-ingof futuresstudiesforesightorla prospectiveto avoid going back tosquare one. This way they can avoidsome of the pitfalls.What Is the Difference betweenForesight and La Prospective?Onaninternationallevel,lapro-spective is not a stable, uniformfieldatall. Thesamedisciplinesarenotwww.wfs.orgTHE FUTURISTMay-June 201247Strategie Foresight and La Prospeetive: What's theDifferenee?ATTITUDE ANDGOALSCEY SUCCESSFACTOR FORINNOVATIONFORECASTINGTOOLSPOSITIONING OFSCENARIOSFINAL RESULTAND ROLE OFTHEFUTURIST/PROSPECTIVISTSTRATEGIC FORESIGHTFocuses more on pre-activity, prediction, andanticipation.Focuses more on technical changes.From Technological Forecasting and SocialChange to emphasis on technology foresight.Great influence of Rand Corporation inrationality (system analysis, Delphi) and ofHerman Kahn (scenarios).Central, reduced to a limited numher ofvariables (Global Business Network).Often thinking out-of-the-box.Also used for storytelling, consensus, and com-munication.LA PROSPECTIVEFocuses more on pro-activity and building the future.Technical change is important but not essential.Client reports thatedge-based visions.These visions are mainly produced by the futuristas an expert in thefield.Futuring is used as an acceptance process.80% of innovation is low-tech (social, political,management, etc.)The same influences, plus historical and philosophical in-fluences integrating actors and projects.Central with unconventional thinking, but withjmore variables, morerigor.(Over)using morphological analysis.Questionable because scenario buuding becomesan end in itself.bo many scenarios and not enough projects.Client reports are less important than the processinvolving clients as producers.The aim of futuring process is appropriationby end-users.Prospectivist is a coach who facilitates the collectiveproduction of knowledge. His or her expertise is notnecessarily in the field. The prospectivist providesrigoroustechniques for collective thinking anddecision making.Tabie byMichelGodetusedinprospectiveresearchinallcountries.In Great Britain, polificalscienfistsare the experts. It changes accordingto country, too. In the United States,pracfifioners have stayed close to thescience of the futurein the same wayas there is a science of the past^his-tory.An enormous problem today is theAnglo-Americandomination in thefield,especiallyinBrussels. Obvi-ously, we missed the chance to struc-turela prospectiveonaEuropeanscaleandthusformaEuropeancommunity of la prospective.Several times I did try, unsuccess-fully,to change things, but the Euro-pean Commission in Brussels viewsla prospectivethroughtheprism oftechnologyforesight.Thistype ofprospective falls into the technologicalmiragethatIhavelongbeende-nouncing.We have to link fields, rather like asociologist-demographer, who takesintoaccountfamilyandsocial fac-tors. We do not want to have only atechnological viewpoint; instead, weneedto be multidisciplinary, usingdifferentlevers. This always remindsme ofthe dreamof the hammer, orthe popularexpressionthatforthehammer every problem resembles anail. Lifeis notlike that. The sametooldoes notworkonevery prob-lem.IntheEnglish-speakingworld,foresight, as it is usually called, oftenremains based on the Delphi method(consulting experts in a given field),basedontechnology,andwiththeambitionofforeseeingthefuture.The original sin oflaprospectivere-mainsa temptation:Experts,con-sciouslyorunconsciously, wanttoplay the part of oracle.Weshouldrememberthatonemeaning of foresight is actually intu-ifion; i.e., the futureis to be guessed.For us in the field, the futureis to bebuilt; in otherwords, a completelydifferentapproach fromguessing orprophesying.Thebreakbetweenthese approaches is significant, be-cause the ideaof a futureto be cre-ated puts us inifiaUy in the situafionof actors.So there is no international acad-emy of la prospective or futuresstud-48THE FUTURISTMay-June 2012www.wfs.orgTHIERRY BOULLEYAuthorMichel Godet in Paris.ies, and I doubt there ever will be.But this also means that la prospec-tiveis no longera solitarypleasure.That'snew.Anotherpositivestepforwardis how widespreadthefieldhas become. The newcomerstell theseniorsthattheirpracticesareout-datedbecausetheythinktheyneednewmethods;inotherwords,the^ ones that they themselves bring.The need for new methods remainstobeseen.However,thetrendto-wardusingqualitativemeasurestounderstandphenomenais good. Andusingcreativitysessions is a positivedevelopmentfor prospectivists/iutar-ists. You have to putcreativity in theworkshopsandtorememberthatwhat counts is not the final report butthe process that leads to the report. Adepartmentmanagerata storecancreate hisfuturejustas muchas anexecutive can.Anothertrendinla prospectiveisthat the issue of sustainable develop-menthas becomedominantamongfuturists.Thedifferencesbetweenthefieldsofsustainabledevelop-mentandfuturesstudieshaveshrunk, because the goal ofsustain-abledevelopmentistokeepthefutureopen,to makechoicesin thepresentthat are not to thedetrimentoffuturegenerations.Inotherwords, thinking about humankind ina responsible manner.Laprospectiveandsustainablede-velopmentaresisterconcepts.Maybe the word prospective will evendisappearfromourvocabulary. Re-gardless,theideaofresponsibilitywithrespecttothelongtermis in-cluded in sustainable development.What Legacy Do I Leave?CanImakeadifference?AndwhatdoIleavebehind?Thesetwokeyquestionsre-flectthetimesandnature offuturing.Obviouslywe hopefor positive answers.Today, morethanbefore,Iamfollowingthepoliticalscene. It's normal to be both afuturistand a "public intellec-tual,"becausethinkingforoneselfbyoneselfdoesn'tmake much sense.Like the lookout during hiswatchonboardtheTitanicuponseeingtheiceberg,myambi-tion is not to say "We hit an iceberg!"butto warn everyoneso as to avoidcollision.Goodforecastsarenotthosethatoccur butthosethatleadtoaction.I feelthatI amaplayer,too. I try to warn the leaders and citi-zens so that we can avoid problems.A problem well presentedis alreadypartly solved.I amsoundingthealarmnowonthe problemsof integrating increas-ingnumbersofimmigrantsandstemming the demographic catastro-pheonthehorizonduetoagingpopulationsandrisingdependencyratios in Etirope. There rarely is con-sensuson the keyorpriorityques-tions,so theobjectiveofparticipa-toryfuturesexercises is to generate,throughdebate,moreconsensualpriority decisions.Mypersonalgrowth,whichhasbeenalmostaround-tripbacktosquare one, has meant being less in-terested in the futureand more inter-estedinthepresent,plusgivingmeaning to action.Historyconstantlyrewritesitselfaccordingtotheneedsofthepres-ent,so theambitionof la prospectiveistoilluminatepresentactioninlightof possiblefutures.Laprospec-tive is focusedon the present, givingmeaning to action, for action withouta goal has no meaning.I also realizedalong thewaythatthegoalisnoteverything.Goingthroughtheprocessalltogetherisimportant.Thegoalisa pretexttothecollectivejourneythatcreatesties amongparticipants. The mean-ing of lifecomes throughthose ties.Wealthisreallyeducated,fulfilledpeopleinasocietythathasconfi-denceplusprojects:Thisphrasesums up my entire personal and pro-fessional path, a result of the attitudeoflaprospective.You can see the coming together ofmythoughtsasa practitioner,citi-zen, man of action, projectstarteronthe ground in terms of entrepreneur-ship and local development.Paradoxically,I also noticedthat,besidesacceleratingchange,inertiaplaysan importantrole. Thegreat-est changes oftencome frominertia,afactorthathasbeenunderesti-mated.The worldchanges, butthe prob-lemsremain,becausetheyarelinkedtoaninvariable:humanna-ture.Overtime,menretainverysimilardrivesthatleadthemto be-haveinacomparablemannerincomparablesituations.Inshort,they are predictable.Asaconsequence,wehavetostudyhumannaturetounderstandphenomena.Forme,laprospectivehasbeenandwillalwaysremain apassion. I triedto not only do it as abusiness,unlikesomepractitionerswhomIcriticizefornotcaringenough to pass on their know-how.The prospectivist,or futurist,com-mitstoaction,withaproject,adream.Already,thelanguagede-notesasensitiveknowledge:"dreamsfertilizereality."However,rigorandmethodologyarealsoneeded.In short, both leftandrightbrain must be activated. I payatten-tion to this intellectual blend. With-outreason, passion is blind; withoutpassion to fuel a project, reason leadsnowhere.About the AuthorMichei Godetis an economistand professorat the ConservatoireNational des Arts etMtiers, where he holds the chair of Strate-gicForesight.He is the founder and facilita-tor of the Entrepreneurs of theFuture Cir-cle, a joint program of theNational CenterforEntrepreneurshipand theFoundationProspectiveet Innovation. He is co-author,withPhilippeDurance, ofStrategic Fore-sight: For Corporate and Regional Develop-ment {UNESCO, withEntrepreneurs of theFuture Circle, 2011). He is also a memberof theFrench Academyof Technology.E-mail:michel.godet@laprospective.fr.This articleis adapted from an interviewin the French online journalGrand Lyon,conductedby CdricPolre, available atwww.millenaire3.com.www.wfs.orgTHE FUTURISTMay-June 201249Copyright of Futurist is the property of World Future Society and its content may not be copied or emailed tomultiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, usersmay print, download, or email articles for individual use.