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Title: Risk, Return, and Capital Budgeting
Speaker: Rebecca Stull
Created by: Gene Lai
online.wsu.edu
MODULE 9
RISK, RETURN, AND CAPITAL
BUDGETING
Revised by Gene Lai
12-2
12-3
Risk, Return and the Capital
Budgeting
This module introduces the quantitative techniques
used to estimate the required returns on equity.
It also establishes the relationship between market
risk and the relative riskiness of the firm.
Outline
Measuring Market Risk
Portfolio Betas
Risk and Return
CAPM and Expected Return
Security Market Line
Capital Budgeting and Project Risk
12-4
12-5
Measuring Market Risk
Market Portfolio - Portfolio of all assets (including
rare coins and houses) in the economy. In practice,
a broad stock market index, such as the S&P
Composite, is used to represent the market.
Beta - Sensitivity of a stock’s return to the return on
the market portfolio.
Beta and Market Risk
Beta measures a stock’s market risk. It shows a stock’s volatility relative to the market.
Beta shows how risky a stock is if the stock is held in a well-diversified portfolio.
12-6
Measuring Market Risk
Example - Turbo Charged Seafood has the
following % returns on its stock, relative to
the listed changes in the % return on the
market portfolio. The beta of Turbo Charged
Seafood can be derived from this information.
12-7
Measuring Market Risk
Month Market Return % Turbo Return %
1 + 1 + 0.8
2 + 1 + 1.8
3 + 1 - 0.2
4 - 1 - 1.8
5 - 1 + 0.2
6 - 1 - 0.8
Example - continued
12-8
Measuring Market Risk
When the market was up 1%, Turbo average % change was +0.8% ((.8+1.8-.2)/3)
When the market was down 1%, Turbo average % change was -0.8%
Thus, beta or market risk is 0.8.
Example - continued
12-9
How are betas calculated
Run a regression of past returns on Stock i versus returns on the market.
Example rIBM = a + b r S&P + e
Where r = returns = (P1 – P0 +Div1)/P0
We need returns of IBM and S&P 500 for the last 60 months
The slope of the regression line is defined as the beta coefficient.
12-10
12-11
Measuring Beta Graphically
Beta
If beta = 1.0, stock has average risk.
If beta > 1.0, stock is riskier than average.
If beta < 1.0, stock is less risky than average.
Most stocks have betas in the range of 0.5 to 1.5.
12-12
Can a beta be negative?
Answer: Yes.
If correlation coefficient between the return of
that specific stock and that of the market or
S&P 500 is negative, then beta is negative.
In this case, the slope of the regression line
will be negative.
A negative beta is highly unlikely. The beta
of gold can be negative.
12-13
12-14
Stock Betas for Common Stocks (May 2005 - April 2010)
12-15
Portfolio Beta
The beta of your portfolio will be a weighted average of the betas of the securities in the portfolio.
What would be the average beta if you owned all of the S&P Composite Index stocks?
One.
What is the beta of the risk-free return, U.S. Treasury Bills?
Zero.
12-16
Portfolio Beta: Example
Example – Calculate the beta of a portfolio that consists of 25%
Ford, 25% Boeing, and 50% McDonald’s.
Company Beta Weight Beta×Weight
Ford 2.53 .25 .63
Boeing 1.28 .25 .32
McDonald's .62 .50 .31
Portfolio Beta = 1.26
12-17
Measuring Market Risk:
The Market Risk Premium Market Risk Premium - Risk premium of market portfolio; the
difference between the market return and the return on risk-free Treasury
bills.
Let,
Risk-free rate of return
Market Return
Market Risk Premium =
f
m
m f
r
r
r r
12-18
Market Risk Premium: Example
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Beta
Exp
ecte
d R
etu
rn (
%) Let,
4%
12%
Market Risk Premium = 8%
f
m
r
r
Example:
4%fr
8%market risk premium
Market Portfolio
(market return = 12%)
12-19
Capital Asset Pricing Model
(CAPM)
Market risk premium -
Risk premium on any asset -
( )
or,*
( )
m f
f
f m f
f m f
r r
r r
r r r r
r r r r
Let r = expected return on any asset
* Note: These are identical, the risk-free rate
has just been moved to the right hand side.
12-20
CAPM: Example
According to CAPM, the expected return on the asset is
( ) 4% 1.2 (8%) 13.6%f m fr r r r
Let:
4%
12%
Thus, the Market Risk Premium = 8%
f
m
r
r
Suppose 1.2
Suppose β= 1
12-21
Graphic Representation of
CAPM
Security Market Line - The relationship between expected
return and beta.
fr
mr
How Well Does the CAPM Work?
Almost everyone agrees high risk and high expected return concept
Investors are concerned with the market risk that cannot be eliminated by diversification
A good rule of thumb
Hard to test because we do not know expected return
Other factors such as size or market/book value ratio explain return better
12-22
12-23
Alternative Explanations to
CAPM • Small minus big: small stock performed better
than big stocks even we adjusted for beta.
• High minus low book-to-market: high book-to-
market value stocks outperformed low book-to-
market value stocks.
• High book-to-market value stocks are
value stocks
• Low book-to-market value stocks are
glamour stocks.
12-24
CAPM and Expected Returns
12-25
Project Risk and the
Security Market Line
Which should be used to assess the value of a proposed project?
• Company Cost of Capital: Expected rate of return demanded
by investors in a company, determined by the average risk of
the company’s securities
• Project Cost of Capital: Minimum acceptable expected rate
of return on a project given its risk.
Capital Budgeting & Project Risk
Example - Based on the CAPM, what is the cost of capital of ABC Co. A breakdown of the company’s investment projects is listed below. When evaluating a new dog food production investment, which cost of capital should be used? (Assume risk premium is 10% and risk free rate is 4%.)
12-26
Capital Budgeting & Project Risk
Example - Based on the CAPM, what is the cost of capital of ABC Co. A breakdown of the company’s investment projects is listed below. When evaluating a new dog food production investment, which cost of capital should be used? (Assume risk premium is 10% and risk free rate is 4%.)
1/3 Nuclear Parts Mfr.. Beta = 2.0
1/3 Computer Hard Drive Mfr.. Beta = 1.3
1/3 Dog Food Production Beta = 0.6
Answer:
AVG. beta of assets = 1.3 = (2 + 1.3 + 0.6)/3
ABC Company has a cost of capital of 17% = (4 + 1.3(10)).
12-27
Capital Budgeting & Project Risk
The expected return for the new dog food production investment is
r = 4 + 0.6 (14 - 4 ) = 10%
10% reflects the opportunity cost of capital on an investment given the risk of the project (Dog food).
We should use 10%, not 17%.
12-28
12-29
Project Risk and the
Security Market Line
Should this project be accepted? Why? Yes. Because the project’s rate of return is
higher than the required rate of return.
What does this imply, if anything, about this project’s NPV? This implies the
project has a positive NPV.
12-30
Determinants of Project Risk
Consider:
1. Operating Leverage and Project Risk: high operating
leverage means high fixed costs and tends to have high
betas.
2. The presence of non-diversifiable risk: earnings are
strongly dependent on the state of the economy, tend to
have high betas and high cost of capital.
Don’t Add Fudge Factors to
Discount Rates
Should you use higher discount rate if you
believe the project has high risk such as
liability lawsuit or political risk in certain
country?
No.
Adjust expected cash flows not RRR (r).
12-31