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Equities
Ritu Vohora, Investment Director
February 2020
2
Ritu Vohora
• Ritu is an Investment Director and Head of Equities Investment Communications. She
provides insight on macro and market dynamics, portfolio construction and equity
investment risk to clients and the media
• Ritu is also a spokesperson for M&G, she is frequently quoted in the press and regularly
speaks on media outlets (BBC, CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN) on various investment topics
• She graduated from Warwick Business School with a BSc (hons) degree in Accounting
and Finance in 2003 and holds an MSc in Management & Regulation of Risk from the
London School of Economics (LSE)
• Ritu has completed the UKSIP level 3 certificate in investment management (IMC) and is
a CFA charterholder
• Ritu won Highly Commended for ‘Role Model of the Year’ at Investment Week’s Women
in Investment Awards 2017. She was also a finalist for the Asian Women of Achievement
(Business category) 2017 and London Asian Business awards 2017
Biography
3
M&G (Lux) Global Listed Infrastructure Fund
Risks associated with this fund
The value and income from the fund's assets will go down as well as up. This will cause the value of your investment to fall as well as rise. There
is no guarantee that the fund will achieve its objective and you may get back less than you originally invested.
The fund can be exposed to different currencies. Movements in currency exchange rates may adversely affect the value of your investment.
The fund holds a small number of investments, and therefore a fall in the value of a single investment may have a greater impact than if it held a
larger number of investments.
Investing in emerging markets involves a greater risk of loss due to greater political, tax, economic, foreign exchange, liquidity and regulatory
risks, among other factors. There may be difficulties in buying, selling, safekeeping or valuing investments in such countries.
Convertibles are subject to the risks associated with both bonds and company shares, and to risks specific to the asset class. Their value may
change significantly depending on economic and interest rate conditions, the creditworthiness of the issuer and the performance of the underlying
company shares. In addition, issuers of convertibles may fail to meet payment obligations and their credit ratings may be downgraded.
Convertibles may also be harder to sell than the underlying company shares.
In exceptional circumstances where assets cannot be fairly valued, or have to be sold at a large discount to raise cash, we may temporarily
suspend the fund in the best interest of all investors.
The fund could lose money if a counterparty with which it does business becomes unwilling or unable to repay money owed to the fund.
For any performance shown, please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance.
It is also important to note that
The fund invests mainly in company shares and is therefore likely to experience larger price fluctuations than funds that invest in bonds and/or
cash.
4
Equities – being on the right side of change
Ritu Vohora, Investment Director
February 2020
For Investment Professionals only.
5
6
Key themes
The last innings of the cycle?
?
Global economy: Which
asset class will fare better?
!Trade wars
%
Interest rates:
Fed policy
Regional opportunities
?
Geopolitics
7
A monumental decade for most asset classes
Source: Refinitiv DataStream, 9th March 2009 to 31 December 2019. Total returns in USD.
Asset class performance (USD) – 9th March 2009 to 31st December 2019
-100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600%
GBP vs US dollar
Dollar
China
US 10Y Treasury
Oil
German 10Y Bund
Gold
UK large cap
Europe
Emerging equities
EM dollar debt
Japan
Global high yield bonds
FTSE 250
Global equities
US
US stocks have lead the way
8
Can the current market cycle continue?
Bull markets don’t just die of old age
LONGEST bull market in history
S&P500 up 512%
Longest expansion
on record
since WW2
WEAKEST vs previous
post war expansions
(US GDP growth)
Source: Thomson Reuters DataStream, 4 February 2020, Image sources: By U.S. Navy photo 80-G-204897 - U.S. Navy National Museum of Naval Aviation photo No. 1996.253.680 [1], Public Domain,
https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=7404370 , 1National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:Spitsbergen_reindeer01.jpg - überarbeitet von mir, CC BY-SA 3.0
9
2019: a turnaround story
2019 Performance (% USD)
Please note, past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Source: DataStream, 31 December 2019. Total returns in USD.
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Dollar
German 10Y Bund
US 10Y Treasury
Commodities
Global high yield bonds
EM dollar debt
Emerging markets
Japan
UK large cap
Gold
China
Europe
Brent crude oil
Global equities
UK domestic
US
Every major asset class had a positive return in 2019
Stocks led gains – S&P500 delivered its best annual return since 2013
10
But investors remained cautious in 2019
Bond-Mad Investors Ignore Stock
Market's Best Quarter Since 2012Bloomberg March 2019
Investors Pour Money Into Bond Funds at a Record Pace
WSJ July 2019
Exit
Sustainable Fund Flows
Smashed Records in 2019Morningstar
11
Uncertainties remain
Brexit
Global growth
Source: M&G. . Image sources: By Eddie Maloney from North Las Vegas, USA - Sugar Shane Autograph, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=31881354, By Max Goldberg from USA - Trump in Ames, CC BY 2.0,
https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=47586256, By Hye900711 - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=46592847, This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA
‘Peak’ profits/
margin pressures
Central bank
policy
US election 2020
Coronavirus
US / China trade wars
Trade wars/
protectionism
12 Source: ICE Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, Global Fund Manager Survey, January 2020. Ship; By AlfvanBeem - Own work, CC0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=19499332
What is the biggest risk for markets?
US election is now seen as the most significant tail risk
% of investors naming a specific issue as biggest tail risk
Investor risk appetite
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Trade war
Monetary policy impotence
Bond market bubble
Outcome of 2020 election
Jan 20
Dec 19
Other
13
Both bonds and equities posted sizeable returns in 2019
Source: DataStream, 4 February 2020
Mixed signals: who‘s right?
Past performance is not a guide to future performance
Price
In
de
x
S&P 500 Index vs. 10 year Treasury yield
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
1900
2100
2300
2500
2700
2900
3100
3300
S&P500 Index
US 10-year Treasury yield
Yie
ld
Stocks
Bonds
Yields
14
Recession dashboard: some key indicators
Source: Bloomberg, 31 December 2019 (latest data available)
No sign of an imminent recession in the world’s largest economy
US Treasury yield curve
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Inverted yield curve typically leads to recession
as it signals the Central Bank has tightened
rates too aggressively
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
US housing inventory (months)
A reading above 7 months suggests there is an
excess supply of houses, in turn leading to a fall in
prices and consequently a recession
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Oil price (yoy change)
A spike in oil prices could be seen as a “big
tax” that leads to lower consumption and
therefore recession
15
RECESSION GROWTH
• Generally high debt levels
• Manufacturing sector weakness
• Trade wars, geopolitical risk
• Yield curve inversion
• Muted growth
• Robust services sector
• Positioning not euphoric
• Supportive monetary policy
• Earnings delivery
• US: solid economy & labour market
Source: M&G, December 2019.
Markets are vulnerable to pull backs
Should we expect recession or continued growth ?
16
The domino effect: trade tensions versus policy easing
Source: MRB Partners, June 2019. Note dominoes depict trends in the US and aggregate global economy.
Services and consumer sectors still resilient
Manufacturing accounts for just 15% of global GDP
17
The folly of forecasting
The author
An economist is an expert who
will know tomorrow why the
things he predicted yesterday
didn't happen today”
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY
The author
We have two classes of forecasters:
Those who don’t know - and those who
don’t know, that they don’t know
J.K Galbraith (US economist)
Laurence J. Peter
18
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Apr-
90
Apr-
91
Apr-
92
Apr-
93
Apr-
94
Apr-
95
Apr-
96
Apr-
97
Apr-
98
Apr-
99
Apr-
00
Apr-
01
Apr-
02
Apr-
03
Apr-
04
Apr-
05
Apr-
06
Apr-
07
Apr-
08
Apr-
09
Apr-
10
Apr-
11
Apr-
12
Apr-
13
Apr-
14
Apr-
15
Apr-
16
Apr-
17
Apr-
18
Apr-
19
Focus on the facts: valuations
Equity earnings yield and real US 10-year government bond yields
Source: Source: Thomson Reuters DataStream, 31 January 2020. Earning’s yields are not inflation adjusted
Yie
ld
Stocks currently provide a margin of safety
MSCI AC World
ex-US
US (S&P 500)
US 10Y Real
Yield
Are you compensated to take risk?
Global equity
ex-US equity
risk premium:
7.4%**
19
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
MSCI EM MSCI JAPAN MSCI EUROPE EXUK
MSCI USA MSCI UK MSCI AC WORLD
Earnings growth
Multiple expansion
Dividend yield
Total return
Performance decomposition
Source : DataStream MSCI, 31 December 2019,
Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
2019’s gains driven by multiple expansion
Regional total return breakdown – 2019
Price rises need to be supported by earnings to be sustainable
20
Regional scorecard
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, 31 January 2020. US market using S&P 500, UK market using FTSE All Share, MSCI for all other markets. Image source: By Ecallow - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0,
https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=23102709..
19.1x
15.2x
14.5x
13.3x
23%
16%
12%
17%
1.8%
3.5%
2.4%
2.7%
Return
on EquityValuation
PE FY1 Dividend
yield
10%
8%
6%
14%
Earnings
expectations
Markets have front run economic and earnings upturn
21
Earnings subdued due to margin pressures
Source: Refinitiv DataStream, December 2019. Net % = 3Month moving average of NFIB Survey: % report plan higher prices less % lower prices
US National Federation of Independent Business survey: % of surveyed companies
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40 Net % companies planning to raise prices
% companies planning to raise wages
A narrowing gap between pricing power and wages
Expect a modest recovery versus strong rebound
22
Will Global ex US be Great Again?
Source: Refinitiv, Datastream 31 January 2020 and Haver Analytics, IMF, national sources, Morgan Stanley Research forecasts Note: Global ex US real GDP growth is the PPP-based GDP-weighted average. *RoW is global excluding US and is the PPP-
based GDP weighted average.
US market has dominated returns
50%
70%
90%
110%
130%
150%
170%
MSCI USA
MSCI EUROPE
MSCI JAPAN
MSCI AC WORLD EXUS
MSCI EM
Regional performance
Earnings and growth pick up needed in the Rest of the World vs US
23Image sources: By Michael Vadon - →This file has been extracted from another file: Donald Trump August 19, 2015.jpg, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=42609338. Janet Yellen: United States Federal Reserve - http://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/yellen_janet_rdax_161x201.jpg, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=40726336. By Foreign and Commonwealth Office - Flickr, OGL, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=32138289
Europe
EM
Japan
UK
US• Economy on solid footing
• Robust earnings but growth set to slow. US election
• Home to quality firms – strong cashflows & div. growth
• Growth has slowed, earnings subdued
• Unloved and undervalued, possible surprises?
• Geopolitical risks/ trade tensions/ market structure
• Brexit uncertainty
• Sterling volatility
• Record yield gap between stocks vs bonds
• Low valuation
• Rising returns vs prices
• Improved corporate governance
• Improving fundamentals
• Pockets of attractive valuations
Polarised universe – be selective
Where are the opportunities and risks?
24
Outlook
Risks persist:
Stay invested,
diversified & on the
right side of change
A decade of US
dominance:
2020 is about earnings
delivery
Valuations matter:
Stock dispersion
means selectivity is
important
100
BONDS
EQUITIES
PROPERTY
25
For Investment Professionals only.
Investing in Global Listed Infrastructure
M&G (Lux) Global Listed Infrastructure Fund
26
Reasons to consider investing in listed infrastructure
Source: M&G, PCR team, 25 August 2017. Yield and volatility of Barclays Global Aggregate Total Return Index (‘Fixed Income’), MSCI ACWI (‘Equities’), and M&G proprietary listed infrastructure universe (‘Listed infrastructure’), from 1 January
2010 to 31 December 2016. Cash based on ECB interest rates as at 31 August 2018. M&G’s infrastructure universe vs MSCI AC World. Factset, 30 June 2017 *As at 31 January 2017. **As at 27 October 2017
A unique asset class
A genuinely differentiated risk/return profile
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
Historical yield vs volatility payoff across asset classes
Yie
ld
Volatility
Listed
infrastructure
Fixed
Income
Cash
Equities
Past performance is not a guide to future performance
Lower volatility
Beta* <1
Yield > Equities
3% 2.3%
Drawdown:
diversification
benefits
27 Source: M&G, 2019. Illustrative figures only. FactSet, 31 December 2017, US dividend achievers vs S&P 500 (annualised 25-year quarterly returns)
Our philosophy and approach – focus on dividend growth, not yield
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036
Div
ide
nd
(U
SD
)
Dividend (stock yielding 6%, no growth) Dividend (stock yielding 4%, 10% growth)
The power of long-term compounding
28
Philosophy and approach
Investing in businesses owning or controlling:
Source: M&G, 2019
Our definition of listed infrastructure: focusing on physical assets
Strategic assets with physical backing and long-term growth
Critical infrastructure Long-life concessions Perpetual royalties
29
Philosophy and approach
Source: M&G, 2019 *Expected annual dividend increase, for illustrative purposes only. Internal guidelines only, subject to change
Our definition of listed infrastructure: capturing long-term growth
A stable, dependable foundation…..augmented by growth
Ind
ustr
y &
su
b-i
nd
ustr
yD
ivid
en
d p
rofi
le*
Utility Energy Transport
Electricity Pipelines Toll roads
Natural gas Terminals Railways
Renewables LNG Airports
Water Ports
Waste Public transit
Health Education Civic
Hospitals Schools Government
State care Universities Security
Student housing
Communication Transactional Royalty
Towers Payments Energy
Data centres Exchanges Mineral
Optical networks
Satellite
Infrastructure class
Economic (65-75%) Social (10-20%) Evolving (15-25%)
30
Our experience so far
Source: Morningstar Inc., Pan European database 31 December 2019, Euro A class shares, net income reinvested, price to price. *Past performance shown to 30 September 2018 is the MSCI ACWI Index .
Past performance shown from 01 October 2018 is the MSCI ACWI Net Return Index.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance
Past performance is not a guide to future performance
2019
%
2018
%
2017
%
2016
%
2015
%
M&G (Lux) Global Listed
Infrastructure Fund36.7 -1.7 N/A N/A N/A
Comparative Index* 28.9 -4.5 9.5 11.7 9.3
Coping with different market conditions
Downside protection and upside capture
Hit rate 32%
Av. relativereturn
-0.4%
Up markets
Hit rate 86%
Av. relativereturn +2.96%
Down
markets
31
Investing beyond the traditional realm of economic infrastructureSelected dividend announcements in 2018 and 2019
Dividend growth across the portfolio
Source: Bloomberg, 31 March 2019.*Year-on-year increase.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance
+28%
+12%*
+29%
+9%
+21%*
+12%*
+18%
+30%
+50%
32
Outlook
Source: M&G, 2019
An asset class driven by powerful long-term themes
Powerful tailwinds to drive long-term performance
Renewable energy
Universal connectivity
Urbanisation
Water and waste management
Social and demographic shifts
Transportation of the future
33
M&G (Lux) Global Listed Infrastructure Fund
Source: M&G, 2019
Summary
A long-term strategy to deliver long-term solutions
Rising income backed
by structural growth and
inflation-protected
revenues
Listed infrastructure is an asset
class with compelling
characteristics
A modern and differentiated
approach to capture long-term
growth
34
www.equitiesforum.com
@equitiesforum
For Investment Professionals and Institutional Investors only. Not for onward distribution. No other persons should rely on any information contained within.
Distribution of this document in or from Switzerland is not permissible with the exception of the distribution to Qualified Investors according to the Swiss Collective Investment
Schemes Act, the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Ordinance and the respective Circular issued by the Swiss supervisory authority ("Qualified Investors"). Supplied for the use by
the initial recipient (provided it is a Qualified Investor) only.
In Spain the M&G Investment Funds are registered for public distribution under Art. 15 of Act 35/2003 on Collective Investment Schemes as follows: M&G (Lux) Investment Funds 1 reg. no 1551
The collective investment schemes referred to in this document (the "Schemes") are open-ended investment companies with variable capital, incorporated in England and Wales in respect of M&G
Investment Funds and in Luxembourg in respect of M&G (Lux) Investment Funds.
In the Netherlands, all funds referred to, are UCITS and registered with the Dutch regulator, the AFM.
This information is not an offer or solicitation of an offer for the purchase of investment shares in one of the Funds referred to herein. Purchases of a Fund should be based on the current Prospectus.
The Instrument of Incorporation, Prospectus, Key Investor Information Document, annual or interim Investment Report and Financial Statements, are available free of charge, in paper form, from M&G
International Investments S.A. or one of the following - M&G International Investments S.A., German branch, mainBuilding, Taunusanlage 19, 60325 Frankfurt am Main; the Austrian paying agent:
Société Générale Vienna Branch, Zweigniederlassung Wien Prinz Eugen-Strasse, 8-10/5/Top 11 A-1040 Wien, Austria; the Luxembourg paying agent Société Générale Bank & Trust SA, Centre
operational 28-32, place de la Gare L-1616 Luxembourg; the Danish paying agent: Nordea Bank Danmark A/S Issuer Services, Securities Services, Hermes Hus, Helgeshøj Allé 33, Postbox 850, DK-
0900, Copenhagen C, Denmark; Allfunds Bank, Calle Estafeta, No 6 Complejo Plaza de la Fuente, La Moraleja, 28109, Alcobendas, Madrid, Spain; M&G International Investments S.A. French
branch; from the French centralising agent of the Fund: RBC Investors Services Bank France; or from the Swedish paying agent: Nordea Bank AB (publ), Smålandsgatan 17, 105 71 Stockholm,
Sweden. For Switzerland, please refer to M&G International Investments Switzerland AG, Talstrasse 66, 8001 Zurich or Société Générale, Paris, Zurich Branch, Talacker 50, P.O. Box 5070, 8021
Zurich, which acts as the Swiss representative of the Schemes (the "Swiss Representative") and acts as their Swiss paying agent.
For Italy, they can also be obtained on the website: www.mandgitalia.it. For Ireland, they are available in English language and can also be obtained from the Irish facilities agent, Société Générale
SA, Dublin Branch, 3rd Floor IFSC House – The IFSC Dublin 1, Ireland. For Germany and Austria, copies of the Instrument of incorporation, annual or interim Investment Report, Financial Statements
and Prospectus are available in English and the Prospectus and Key Investor Information Document/s are available in German.
Before subscribing investors should read the Prospectus, which includes a description of the investment risks relating to these funds.
The information contained herein is not a substitute for independent investment advice.
This financial promotion is issued by M&G International Investments S.A. Registered Office: 16, Boulevard Royal, L-2449, Luxembourg. The Portuguese Securities Market Commission (Comissão do
Mercado de Valores Mobiliários, the “CMVM”) has received a passporting notification under Directive 2009/65/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and the Commission Regulation (EU)
584/2010 enabling the fund to be distributed to the public in Portugal.
36
Have markets front run economic recovery?
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, 31 January 2020.
MSCI AC World vs JP Morgan Composite manufacturing PMI
0.6
100.6
200.6
300.6
400.6
500.6
600.6
700.6
48.0
49.0
50.0
51.0
52.0
53.0
54.0
55.0
JPM Composite manufacturing PMI MSCI AC World
37
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
%
Federal funds rate
US FOMC December 2018 forcasts (median)
US FOMC December 2019 forecasts (median)
Don’t fight the Fed Change in policy backdrop - central banks are trying to boost growth
An important driver of asset prices
Federal funds policy rate expectations
Source: Refinitive, DataStream, 31 December 2019
Market expectations on 31 December 2019 (mean)
%
38 Source: JP Morgan FX Strategy January 2020
US Presidential election 2020
Dollar Weak $ Laissez Faire
Trade Protectionist Free Trade
Fiscal Deficits Austerity
Regulatory/Taxes Big Govt Small Govt
Energy Reg./Restrain Dereg./Export
Candidates policy vectors
Biden Buttigieg Trump
Warren Sanders
39
2020: Where are we?
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2019. *Thomson Reuters Datastream, 31 December 2019
Global growth remains resilient
Global earnings expectations stabilised
Global Earnings Picture* (12month forward EPS)Muted but consistent world GDP growth
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Yo
Y C
han
ge
(%
)
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
HSCEI
FTSE MIB ITALY
FTSE-100 INDEX
HANG SENG INDEX
MSCI JAPAN
MSCI Europe
S&P 500 COMPOSITE
MSCI AC WORLD
MSCI SPAIN
EURO STOXX 50
CAC 40 INDEX
DAX INDEX
40
China – an economic superpower and engine of growth
Source: Factset, Morgan Stanley Research, August 2019, World Bank, J.P. Morgan. * 2015 Deloitte study, uis.enesco.org visualcapitalist.com, IMF, Standard Chartered, March 2019. This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC
1 in 5 people are Chinese
15%
% Share of global
GDP
$170.5b
$370.6b$476.5b
Japan China US
2nd largest R&D spender
20% 65%
2015 2017
China’s economy:
% size of US economy
Share of global economic growth (forecast)
China 33% Other Asia 30%
Middle
East/North-
Africa 4%
Euro area 4%
LATAM 3% Africa 2%
Other Europe 3%Canad
a 1%
USA 11%
Rest of the world 8%
?
41
-20000 -10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000
Bonds Global CurrenciesEquities Global
Bonds EUR Corp. Inv. GradeBonds USD
Bonds Emerging MarketsBonds Target Maturity
Bonds Global CorporatesBonds USD Short-TermAsset-backed Securities
Bonds EURBonds Global High Yield
Bonds Emerging Markets - Local CurrencyBonds Emerging Markets Corporate
Bonds FlexibleBonds Asia Hard Currencies
Equities Alternative Long/ShortEquities Alternative Market Neutral
Equities EurolandBank loan/Floating rate
Equities EuropeActive Index ETF
Source: Broadridge FundFile as at end November 2019. All data in EUR and based on estimated net sales. Data based on funds classified as Fund Region International which represents the cross border fund flows.
Active and Passive categorisation determined by Broadridge FundFile. Passive data has been split into index tracker funds and ETFs. Sector data excludes Money Market and Fund of Fund sectors. Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA
Cross border top selling sectors
Active & passive split by sector – estimated net sales, €m (Jan - Nov 2019)
Top net selling sectors in Europe (cross-border)Investors remained cautious in 2019
42
Equity valuations have re-rated
Source: Datastream, 9 January 2020.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
IBE
S 1
2m
fw
d P
E
Current IBES 12m FwdPE
25 year average
Jan-19
UK market looks attractive relative to other developed markets
12m forward Price/Earnings ratio vs 25 year average
43
Valuations
Source: M&G, Thomson Reuters Datastream, 9 January 2020. For bonds and cash, real yield is defined as the nominal yield minus expected inflation. For equities, real yield is defined as an inverted p/e ratio,
using forward consensus data. The above data is a hypothetical representation for illustrative purposes only and is not representative of any M&G product or strategy. No representation is being made that any
account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those shown.
How are assets priced today?
Valuations are more challenging
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
DM govt bonds Corporate bonds EM govt bonds US equity EM equity Japan equity Europe equity
Re
al yie
ld*
(%)
Dec 2018 Current
44
It’s all about earnings!
Consensus EPS growth expectations
DM US Europe Japan EM0%
5%
10%
15%
20%2020E 2021E
Source: Consensus earnings expectations 2020, JP Morgan, December 2019
Expectations for 2020 look too high
45
Whats in style?
Source: Morgan Stanley Eurostat, MSCI. IBES, DataStream, 15 January 2019
A cross sectional look at valuations
2020 – a better year for value?
Average relative valuations
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Avg
. R
ela
tive
Va
lua
tio
ns O
n P
E, P
BV
& P
D(1
-Y Z
-sco
re)
46
Attractive
spread
S&P 500: Price to book spread between 25th and 75th percentile
Value is cheap relative to history
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Price
-to
-bo
ok (
P/B
)
25th percentile 75th percentile
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, 30 June 2019. Highlighted bars indicate periods where P/B is greater than the current P/B spread.
Valuation dispersionsUS equities: not a uniform asset class
47
M&G (Lux) Global Listed Infrastructure Fund
Fund name M&G (Lux) Global Listed Infrastructure Fund
Fund manager Alex Araujo
Launch date (manager tenure) October 2017 (October 2017)
Fund size €143.9 million
Investment objective • To provide a combination of capital growth and income to deliver a return that is higher than that of the global
equities market over any five-year period;
• To increase the income stream every year in US dollar terms.
Investment style Global equity, dividend growth, bottom-up stock selection, ESG integrated
Typical number of holdings 40-50
Comparative index MSCI AC World Net Return Index
Valuation currency: US dollars
Fund structure Luxembourg SICAV - UCITS
Pricing/dealing frequency Daily dealing
Distribution frequency Quarterly
Source: M&G, 31 December 2019
Fund overview
48 Source: M&G, 31 December 2019
North America,
49.4%
Europe ex UK, 23.2%
UK, 17.0%
Australia, 4.8%
Hong Kong, 1.5%
Singapore, 1.5%
Brazil, 1.6%
Cash, 1.0%
Utilities, 25.3%
Transport, 20.8%
Energy, 16.8%
Communications, 11.3%
Social, 12.1%
Royalty, 7.9%
Transactional, 4.9%
Cash, 1.0%
Fund weighting by industry Fund weighting by country/region
Infrastructure class Economic Social Evolving
Fund weighting 63% 12% 24%
Fund positioning – our differentiated approach Investing beyond the traditional realm of economic infrastructure
Diversified across industry, geography and infrastructure class
49
For Investment Professionals and Institutional Investors only. Not for onward distribution. No other persons should rely on any information contained within.
Distribution of this document in or from Switzerland is not permissible with the exception of the distribution to Qualified Investors according to the Swiss Collective Investment
Schemes Act, the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Ordinance and the respective Circular issued by the Swiss supervisory authority ("Qualified Investors"). Supplied for the use by
the initial recipient (provided it is a Qualified Investor) only.
In Spain the M&G Investment Funds are registered for public distribution under Art. 15 of Act 35/2003 on Collective Investment Schemes as follows: M&G (Lux) Investment Funds 1 reg. no 1551
The collective investment schemes referred to in this document (the "Schemes") are open-ended investment companies with variable capital, incorporated in England and Wales in respect of M&G
Investment Funds and in Luxembourg in respect of M&G (Lux) Investment Funds.
In the Netherlands, all funds referred to, are UCITS and registered with the Dutch regulator, the AFM.
This information is not an offer or solicitation of an offer for the purchase of investment shares in one of the Funds referred to herein. Purchases of a Fund should be based on the current Prospectus.
The Instrument of Incorporation, Prospectus, Key Investor Information Document, annual or interim Investment Report and Financial Statements, are available free of charge, in paper form, from M&G
International Investments S.A. or one of the following - M&G International Investments S.A., German branch, mainBuilding, Taunusanlage 19, 60325 Frankfurt am Main; the Austrian paying agent:
Société Générale Vienna Branch, Zweigniederlassung Wien Prinz Eugen-Strasse, 8-10/5/Top 11 A-1040 Wien, Austria; the Luxembourg paying agent Société Générale Bank & Trust SA, Centre
operational 28-32, place de la Gare L-1616 Luxembourg; the Danish paying agent: Nordea Bank Danmark A/S Issuer Services, Securities Services, Hermes Hus, Helgeshøj Allé 33, Postbox 850, DK-
0900, Copenhagen C, Denmark; Allfunds Bank, Calle Estafeta, No 6 Complejo Plaza de la Fuente, La Moraleja, 28109, Alcobendas, Madrid, Spain; M&G International Investments S.A. French
branch; from the French centralising agent of the Fund: RBC Investors Services Bank France; or from the Swedish paying agent: Nordea Bank AB (publ), Smålandsgatan 17, 105 71 Stockholm,
Sweden. For Switzerland, please refer to M&G International Investments Switzerland AG, Talstrasse 66, 8001 Zurich or Société Générale, Paris, Zurich Branch, Talacker 50, P.O. Box 5070, 8021
Zurich, which acts as the Swiss representative of the Schemes (the "Swiss Representative") and acts as their Swiss paying agent.
For Italy, they can also be obtained on the website: www.mandgitalia.it. For Ireland, they are available in English language and can also be obtained from the Irish facilities agent, Société Générale
SA, Dublin Branch, 3rd Floor IFSC House – The IFSC Dublin 1, Ireland. For Germany and Austria, copies of the Instrument of incorporation, annual or interim Investment Report, Financial Statements
and Prospectus are available in English and the Prospectus and Key Investor Information Document/s are available in German.
Before subscribing investors should read the Prospectus, which includes a description of the investment risks relating to these funds.
The information contained herein is not a substitute for independent investment advice.
This financial promotion is issued by M&G International Investments S.A. Registered Office: 16, Boulevard Royal, L-2449, Luxembourg. The Portuguese Securities Market Commission (Comissão do
Mercado de Valores Mobiliários, the “CMVM”) has received a passporting notification under Directive 2009/65/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and the Commission Regulation (EU)
584/2010 enabling the fund to be distributed to the public in Portugal.