Kristin Karleskint, Mohammed Moursy and David Lampert School of Civil & Environmental Engineering Oklahoma State University

Clarice Dyson and Jason FurtadoSchool of MeteorologyUniversity of Oklahoma

Source: https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-3-6-1.html

Changes in spatial patterns of precipitation intensity

Annual precipitation divided by number of wet days

Changes in number of consecutive dry days

Areas where the change is statistically significant

Climate changes are predicted to increase the magnitude and frequency of storms and flooding

In addition to destruction of buildings, flood risks pose threats to energy and transportation infrastructure

May/June 2015 storms in OklahomaRoads in OK were submerged in 9” of water

Thousands of OG&E customers experienced power outages in Oklahoma City and Del City

Flooding on the Wichita River (TX) caused 390 homes to be evacuated and 100,000 to go without power

Cumberland levee breached, flooding oil and gas wells and releasing pollution

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/08/16/us/louisiana-flooding-pictures-maps.html

Recent storms highlighted the flood risks to infrastructure

Need to analyze future flood risks associated with climate change and adapt accordingly

Need forecasts of the future climate and assessments of the existing flood control infrastructure

Risks will be influential in urban areas due to man-made alterations to the landscape, causing lower infiltration and higher surface runoff

The specific objectives of the research are to:Determine probabilities of future extreme storm events (1 in 100 year flood, 30-day extreme rainfall)

Analyze future flood inundation risks to infrastructure in the study area

Evaluate approaches for inundation risk mitigation (detention basins, low impact development, etc.)

• PRISM - Hi-res (4 km) temperature & precipitation data [Daly et al., 2002, 2008]

• Official climatological dataset for USDA.

• Use PRISM to calculate climatological precipitation distributions (e.g., daily, 30-day) for calculating observed thresholds of extremes.

http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/

Observed Rainfall Frequency Data from PRISM to determine current 1 in 100 year rainfall

• NARCCAP - Regional climate models run over N. America (50 km resolution) [Mearns et al., 2007].

• Two experiments: Current (1968 - 2000) and Future(2041 - 2070) for comparison

• Total of 24 model-submodelcombinations, each with 30-year samples for analysis.

• Statistics of key variables: e.g., Precipitation, temperature, wind, humidity

http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/data/data-tables.html

12

Land Use Physical Hydrography +

Climate

Hydrology Parameters

Surface Water flow/quality

+

+

SWMM is a distributed, dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality.

Approved for National Flood Insurance Program

Sophisticated representation of stormwaterinfrastructure

Simulation of low impact development

Small time steps (1 min to 1 day)

Single event or continuous simulations (essential for consideration of antecedent soil moisture)

Free and open source (EPA Sponsorship)

Difficult learning curve

Data intensive (climate data, observed hydrology, land use, catchment areas, infrastructure)

Highly urbanized area of approximately half forests/pasture and half developed land

Calibrate SWMM model for a select study area possessing critical infrastructure

Probability distributions of 30-day hourly rainfall for the existing and future climate

Incorporate flood control infrastructure

Impacts and costs of potential mitigation alternatives

Forecast future precipitation events using Climate Change ProjectionQuantify the inundated areasEvaluate inundation mitigation techniques

Storm water Infrastructure (Detention basins)

Porous Concrete

StormTechTM Drainage chambers

Reservoir operations

http://www.tectonica-online.com/products/2687/concrete_high-permeability_hydromedia/

http://www.stormtech.com/developers.html

Additional watersheds/infrastructure

Cost analysis/policy

Low impact development quantification

Water quality Implications of inundation of pollutant sources (contaminated areas, etc.)

Non-point source pollutant loadings)

Southern Plains Transportation Center

Army Corps of Engineers, Tulsa District

Oklahoma Water Resources Board

Oklahoma Department of Transportation