Title (Arial bold 30 point) - ESPO MOVE - Study...Cette présentation, à votre seul usage interne, est indissociable des éléments de contexte qui ont permis de l’établir et des

European Commission

DG MOVE - Directorate B

ESPO Meeting

STUDY ON SUPPORT MEASURES FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE TEN-T CORE NETWORK RELATED TO SEA PORTS, INLAND PORTS AND INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT

Lot 1: Assessment of market potential for inland ports and IW business

Interim Results Task A1 - Analysis of major geopolitical and technological developments affecting the future development of the EU seaport system

CONTRACT No. MOVE/B3/SER/2015-224/SI2.721484

Page 2 © 2013 Propriété d'Ernst & Young et Associés. Cette présentation, à votre seul usage interne, est indissociable des éléments de contexte qui ont permis de l’établir et des commentaires oraux qui l’accompagnent.

Summary

19/04/2016 Summary

1. Aim of Task A1

3. Identification of major geopolitical, economic and trade issues

4. Identification of major technological and organizational and logistical issues

2. Definition of Port Segmentation Criteria


1. Aim of Task A1

► Task A1.1 - Definition of distinguishing criteria for Seaports, Inland Ports

and Inland Waterway Segments

► Task A1.2 - Analysis of past and current geopolitical, economic and trade

issues and derivation of a trend projection for future

development

► Task A1.3 - Analysis of major technological and organizational and

logistical issues that will effect the transport flows on the

TEN-T network and estimation how they will influence the

different transport modes

19/04/2016 Welcome and introduction


2. Definition of Port Segmentation Criteria –

Task A1.1

19/04/2016 Progress on: A1.1

Progress

► Framework was developed on port

segmentation (seaports and inland ports)

regarding different criteria

► In the Work Package ports and IWWs will be

segmented along different aspects:

► Overall throughput / Size

► Market share per (main) commodity

and for different geographical markets

► Origins and destinations (share short

Sea & Deep Sea, focus of ports on

different regions)

► Multimodal (hinterland) connectivity

► IWW characteristica

► Data collection has been performed. A large

database has been set up around the

detailed Eurostat Maritime database

Issues

► A harmonized database on multimodal

hinterland shares in throughput is not

available.

► Proposed is to use the information and

indicators on hinterland connectivity that has

been published in the corridor studies,

A1.1


Task A1.1

Distinguishing Criterion 1 – Throughput (Size)

Atlantic Baltic

Sea

Black Sea East.

Med.

North Sea West.

Med.

Ports >

50.000

million Ton

throughput

Le Havre,

Immingham

Rotterdam,

Antwerp,

Hamburg,

Amsterdam,

Bremer-

haven

Algeciras,

Marseille,

Valencia

Ports >

20% market

share per

sea basin

Constanta,

Burgas

Peiraias Rotterdam

Ports 5-

20% market

share per

sea basin

Le Havre,

Immingham

Riga,

Klaipeda,

Gdansk,

Tallinn,

Ventspils

Varna,

Midia

Agioi

Theodoroi,

Koper,

Elefsina,

Thessa-

loniki,

Megara

Antwerp,

Hamburg,

Amsterdam

Algeciras,

Marseille,

Valencia,

Trieste,

Genova

19/04/2016 Progress on: A1.1


Task A1.1

Distinguishing Criterion 2 – Cargo Type

Atlantic Baltic Sea Black Sea East. Med. North Sea West. Med.

Ports >5% market

share in dry bulk

goods (in bold

>20%)

Dunkerque,

Immingham,

Narvik

Riga, Klaipeda,

Gdansk,

Ventspils,

Kokkola

Constanta,

Burgas, Varna

Koper,

Thessaloniki,

Larymna, Volos,

Elefsina,

Amaliapolis

Magnisias

Rotterdam,

Amsterdam,

Hamburg, Gent,

Antwerpen

Marseille,

Taranto,

Tarragona,

Ravenna,

Venezia

Ports >5% market

share in liquid

bulk goods (in

bold >20%)

Le Havre,

Bergen, Milford

Have,

Southampton,

Tees &

Hartlepool,

Immingham

Sköldvik, Tallinn,

Ventspils,

Gdansk, Riga,

Klaipeda, Butinge

Burgas Midia,

Constanta

Agioi Theodoroi,

Elefsina, Megara,

Thessaloniki,

Omisalj

Rotterdam,

Antwerpen,

Amsterdam

Marseille, Trieste,

Cartagena,

Algeciras,

Augusta, Porto

Foxi, Tarragona,

Huelva

Ports >5% market

share in

containers (in

bold >20%)

Felixstowe, Le

Havre, Sines,

Southampton,

London

Gdansk, Gdynia,

Klaipeda,

HaminaKotka,

Riga, Helsinki

Constanta,

Varna, Burgas

Peiraias, Koper,

Thessaloniki

Rotterdam,

Antwerpen,

Hamburg,

Bremerhaven

Algeciras,

Valencia, Gioia

Tauro, Genova,

Barcelona

Ports >5% market

share in Ro-Ro

(in bold >20%)

Dover, Calais,

Immingham,

Dublin, London

Lübeck,

Trelleborg,

Rostock, Helsinki,

Swinoujscie

Costanta, Varna,

Midia

Peiraias,

Igoumenitsa,

Patra, Irakleio,

Antirrio, Rio,

Perama, Paloukia

Salaminas

Rotterdam,

Zeebrugge,

Göteborg, Rødby,

Antwerpen,

Helsingør,

Bremerhaven

Livorno, Messina,

Genova, Reggio

di Calabria,

Trieste,

Barcelona

19/04/2016 Progress on: A1.1


Task A1.1

Distinguishing Criterion 3 – Intra-/Extra-EU Trade

19/04/2016 Progress on: A1.1

► Large ports are mainly focusing on the international market, while smaller

ports have a more regional character


Task A1.1

Distinguishing Criterion 4 – Origin-Destinations

19/04/2016 Progress on: A1.1

►Origin

►Destination


Task A1.1

Distinguishing Criterion 5 – Main Cargo Types

19/04/2016 Progress on: A1.1

► On average 70% of all throughput in a port is accounted to one cargo type

► There is no relation between the size of the port or the sea basin the port is in

and the degree of specialisation in cargo types


Task A1.1 – Distinguishing Criterion 5

Example: Eastern Mediterranean

19/04/2016

► Clear segmentation between container port of Piraeus, the oil terminals in

Agioi Theoroi and the more general ports.

Progress on: A1.1


Do you have any comments on the criteria?

19/04/2016 Summary


3. Identification of major geopolitical, economic

and trade issues – Task A1.2

19/04/2016 Progress on: A1.2

Progress

Quantitative analysis :

► Past analysis (2000-2015) of "non-bulk" trade per

reporter (EU) and per partner (intra and extra EU) ;

► Past analysis (2000-2014) of Sea Ports traffic per

reporter (EU), per partner (intra and extra EU) and

per type of product (dry bulk, liquid bulk, container,

roro and general cargo) ;

► Past analysis (2000-2014) of IWW transport per

reporter (EU) and per type of traffic (national,

international and transit) ;

► Comparison with past GDP evolution for the same

period ;

► EU "non-bulk" trade projection and Sea Ports

container traffic projection in 2030 (estimation BG);

Qualitative analysis :

The economic context for analysis of transport trends :

general consideration for interpretation (draft report

A1.2)

Issues

► Comparison of trends between transport sources and

trade sources, and explanation of differences: double

counting, containerization rate evolution, change in

trade pattern, relative evolution of ports performance;

► Qualitative analysis of future developments regarding

the topics such as TTIP, competition with non-EU

ports etc.;

► Qualitative analysis of New Markets such as the

supply for the construction and maintenance of

offshore wind farm.

A1.1


Task A1.2 Exemplary results

19/04/2016 Progress on: A1.2

A1.1

► Two main types of statistical sources, "transport sources" (Eurostat: Sea Ports and IWW

transport) and "trade sources" (Comext) ;

► Past trends for transport, in relation with evolution of major socio-economic indicators

(GDP)

Trends have been computed over a period of 15 years, putting forwards differences in trends

according to types of relations and types of products ;

A class of "non-bulk" trade products has been defined, which aggregates type of products

which can be transported within containers.

► Projected trends of transport activities, in relation with socio-economic scenarios

Scenarios provided by EU as reference (Eurostat, DG MOVE, DG ECFIN) ;

Major international organisations such as World Bank, IMF, UNCTAD, for international trade;

ITF (international Transport Forum) with the "Transport Outlook" ;

Major transport studies of DG MOVE including transport projections such as Naiade Studies.


Task A1.2 Past analysis

19/04/2016 Progress on: A1.2

A1.1

► Non-Bulk trade (in tons) ► Sea Ports Traffic (in tons)

Per

Reporter

Per

Partner


Task A1.2 Trend Comparison

19/04/2016 Progress on: A1.2

A1.1

Comparison of past trends

(annual growth rate 2000-2014%)

Comparison of past trends

(2000-2007 and 2007-2014)

► Breaks in trends

Indicator intra EU Extra EU Total

EU countries non bulk trade 2,2% 3,0% 2,4%

EU Sea Ports total traffic 0,9% 2,6% 1,7%

EU Sea Ports container traffic 4,0% 6,4% 5,5%

EU countries IWW traffic 1,1%

EU GDP volumes 1,2%

Indicator 2000-2007% 2007-2014% 2000-2014%

EU countries non bulk trade 3,8% 1,1% 2,4%

EU Sea Ports total traffic 3,9% -0,4% 1,7%

EU Sea Ports container traffic 8,4% 2,6% 5,5%

EU countries IWW traffic 1,3% 1,0% 1,1%

EU GDP volumes 2,3% 0,2% 1,2%


Task A1.2 Projection in 2030

19/04/2016 Progress on: A1.2

A1.1

Non-Bulk trade projection (2030)

2000-

2015%

2015-

2030%

2000-

2015%

2015-

2030%

2000-

2015%

2015-

2030%

BE -0,8% 0,0% 2,8% 3,5% -0,1% 1,0%

DE 2,4% 1,9% 2,7% 2,5% 2,4% 2,0%

ES 1,9% 2,0% 3,4% 3,6% 2,3% 2,5%

FR 1,5% 1,5% 1,3% 1,6% 1,5% 1,5%

IT 0,1% 2,3% 2,5% 4,8% 0,8% 3,2%

NL 4,1% 4,6% 4,8% 4,0% 4,3% 4,4%

UK 0,5% 1,2% 3,3% 2,7% 1,3% 1,8%

EU15 1,8% 2,0% 2,8% 3,1% 2,1% 2,4%

EU13 5,3% 3,1% 2,7% 1,3% 4,7% 2,8%

EU28 2,1% 2,2% 2,8% 2,9% 2,3% 2,4%

Reporter

Intra EU Extra EU Total

2000-

2014%

2014-

2030%

2000-

2014%

2014-

2030%

2000-

2014%

2014-

2030%

BE 6,5% 0,0% 7,0% 3,0% 6,9% 2,5%

DE 4,3% 2,0% 6,6% 2,3% 5,9% 2,2%

ES 2,3% 1,9% 8,7% 3,8% 6,3% 3,3%

FR 2,6% 1,4% 4,4% 1,4% 3,8% 1,4%

IT 5,5% 2,4% 1,8% 4,8% 3,5% 3,7%

NL 1,9% 3,9% 6,4% 3,6% 5,2% 3,7%

UK 0,8% 1,4% 1,7% 2,6% 1,3% 2,1%

Ports EU15 3,5% 1,8% 6,2% 3,1% 5,2% 2,7%

Ports EU13 11,2% 3,2% 18,1% 1,1% 13,3% 2,4%

Ports EU28 4,0% 2,0% 6,4% 3,0% 5,5% 2,7%

Intra EU Extra EU Total

Reporter

Sea Ports Container traffic projection (2030)

The technique used for trade projection is

► With first a trend projection calibrated on time series ;

► And then adjustment to trends provided by EU concerning projections of GDP growth per country, which means using the elasticity estimated for the past period between trade growth and GDP growth, per country.

The Non-Bulk trade growth is applied for Sea Ports Container traffic projection, per country.

(in recent years, stability of containerization rate for

EU Sea traffic by partner, Asia 95%, MED 90%, North

America 85%, Africa 75% and South America 70%).

Country BE DE ES FR IT NL UK EU15 EU13 EU28

2000-

2014%1,4% 1,1% 1,3% 1,1% -0,1% 1,0% 1,7% 1,1% 3,1% 1,2%

2014-

2030%1,6% 0,8% 2,8% 1,9% 1,7% 1,6% 1,8% 1,7% 2,1% 1,7%

GDP projection (2030, DG MOVE)


Do you have any other issues that you would like us to address? Can you send us relevant data / studies?

19/04/2016 Summary


4. Identification of major technological, organi-

zational and logistical issues – Task A1.3

Progress on: A1.3

Progress

Carried out work

► Literature review of recent developments and

projects as well as future research

► Sources: Studies, research papers,

research programs, project

databases.

► Clustering of projects to categories per focus

area

► Qualitative estimation of the trends’ effects

on the transport system

► Work on the report has started

► Configuration of inputs and outputs for the

simulation models

Issues

► Detailed Analyses carried out so far for

► Vessels

► Seaports

► road transportation and

► railway transportation

► IWT needs to be analyzed (barges and inland

waterways)

Remark:

► Most organizational and logistic trends refer

to ICT applications and trends

► Difficult to discuss technological,

organizational and logistic trends individually

► IWT is influenced by other transport modes,

innovation is a topic for the whole transport

system! A1.1

19/04/2016


Task 1.3

Thoughts for trend identification

► Idea 1: Technological trends lead to a reduction of operational costs which increases

competitiveness of transport modes, e.g.

► Automation: Less manning costs; less accidents; less wear etc.

► Ultra Large Vessels: Less costs per transported unit (ton, TEU)

► ICT / information sharing: Better utilization of equipment, less congestion, etc.

► Idea 2: Technological trends are a result of changing regulations and competition, e.g.

► Environmental regulations: Use of alternative fuels and new vessel concepts

► Port Cities

► Idea 3: Logistic and organizational trends result from technological developments

► Synchromodal organization of transport chains is only enabled by continuous information sharing

and ICT

► Cooperation of Seaports is also enabled by ICT use (e.g. common Port Community Systems)

► Transshipments as a result of Ultra Large Vessels

► Remark: Technological trends can also have negative effects (e.g. accessible seaports) and

technological improvements exist for all transport modes!

19/04/2016 Summary


Vessels Seaports Road Railway /

Intermodal

Inland Waterway

Autonomous

shipping and drone

ships

Ultra Large

Vessels

Stricter environ-

mental regulations

(Fuels)

Interpretation and

use of data (STM)

Innovative Vessel

Designs (e.g.

VindSkip)

…

Automation of Port

Terminals

Green Ports

Smart Ports, Smart

Infrastructure

Terminal Networks

(Synchromodality)

Port Information

Security

Port Cities

…

Automation and

smart vehicles

Alternative fuels

for trucks

Increased

efficiency in

operations

Smart scheduling

and appointment

systems

ITS

…

Increased train

length

Alternative fuels

such as hydrogen

or LNG

Noise reduction

ERTMS

European freight

rail corridors

Intermodal rail

concepts

Logistic integration

and disintegration

…

Innovative Vessel

Designs

Automation of

inland waterway

vessels and inland

port operations

Alternative

(cleaner) fuels

ICT use

RIS

short distance

frequent services

…

19/04/2016

Task A1.3 Identified trends

Maritime Sector Hinterland Modes

Progress on: A1.3


Do you have anything else in mind? Can you send us relevant data / studies?

19/04/2016 Summary


19/04/2016 Thank you!

Thank you for your attention!

Documents

Title (Arial bold 30 point) - ESPO MOVE - Study...Cette présentation, à votre seul usage interne, est indissociable des éléments de contexte qui ont permis de l’établir et des