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Tippecanoe CountyPark & Rec. Dept.
Welcome
Dynamics of Climate
Developed ByProject Directors• Dan Shepardson (PI), Professor of Geoenvironmental and Science Education, Departments of Curriculum and
Instruction and Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University• Dev Niyogi (CoPI), Indiana State Climatologist and Associate Professor, Departments of Agronomy and Earth,
Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University
Development Team• Adam Baker, Meteorologist, National Weather Service- Indianapolis, IN• Cheryl Bell, External Evaluator, Bell Academic Opportunities Inc., Schererville, IN• Mary Cutler, Naturalist, Tippecanoe County Parks & Rec. Dept.• Olivia Kellner, Graduate Student, Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University. Meteorologist,
National Weather Service – Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI• Mark Koschmann, Science Teacher, St. John’s Lutheran School, Midland, MI• Ted Leuenberger, Retired science teacher• Hans Schmitz, Purdue Extension, Gibson County, Agriculture and Natural Resources Extension Educator• Ian Pope, Graduate Student, Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University• Jan Sneddon, Director of Community Partnerships, Earth Force
This program was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF), award number GEO-1034821. The opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this program are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the NSF.
ACTIVITY
Purpose and GoalsPurpose: Improve your climate literacy
By the end of the workshop you should be able to answer these four main questions:
Goals:• What is a climate system and its components?• What are causes and effects of component change?• What are the impacts of these changes?• What can we do about it?
ACTIVITY
Where are you on the climate knowledge continuum?
How confident do you feel in your knowledge of the components of a climate system?
1 6
Not at all Moderately Confident! Confident
Where are you on the climate knowledge continuum?
How well do you understand the causes and effects of changes to the components of the
climate system? 1 6
No Moderately Thoroughly
Understanding Understand Understand
Where are you on the climate knowledge continuum?
How well do you understand the impacts of changes to the Earth’s climate system?
1 6
No Moderately Thoroughly
Understanding Understand Understand
Where are you on the climate knowledge continuum?
How prepared/empowered do you feel as an individual to address the issue of climate change?
1 6 I feel I’m sure there’s I have the Hopeless something I can do POWER!
Concepts Covered
• Climate and Weather• Earth’s Energy Budget• Greenhouse Gases and Greenhouse Effect• Carbon Cycle• Global Warming, Climate Variability, and Climate Change• Climate System • Changes to the Climate System• Adaptations and Mitigation• Personal Actions
Climate System
What makes up the Earth’s climate system?
ACTIVITY
Draw a picture, with labels, of what components make up a climate system.
Natural Climate System
Components of a Climate System
Human Influenced Climate System
In Summary:A region's climate is generated
by the climate system: Atmosphere, Ice, Vegetation,
Land, and Oceans
Video
Key Terms:
• Weather is the present condition of temperature, humidity, wind, precipitation, and other meteorological elements and their variations over short time periods—hours and days.
• Climate is the long term—30 plus year—average of temperature, humidity, wind, precipitation, and other meteorological elements.
• Climate System is the Earth’s components that influence climate.
Greenhouse Gasesand the
Greenhouse Effect
What do you think are the greenhouse gases?How would you define the greenhouse effect?
Earth’s Atmospheric Gases
Misc. Gases, 0.01%
Carbon Dioxide, 0.03% Water Vapor, 1.96%
Argon, 0.91%
Oxygen, 20.54%
Nitrogen, 76.55%
Misc. Gases
Carbon Dioxide
Water Vapor
Argon
Oxygen
Nitrogen
Greenhouse gases absorb and emit infrared radiation (long wave). They do not absorb short wave radiation (most of incoming solar radiation).
Earth’s Greenhouse Gases
Greenhouse Effect
How Humans Impact theCarbon Cycle and Greenhouse Effect
ACTIVITY
The Carbon Cycle: Sources and Sinks
Carbon Cycle:with human influence
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/research/themes/carbon/img/carboncycle.gif
units are peta grams (1,000,000,000,000,000 grams)
IPCC (2007)
Global Human Greenhouse Gas Emissions
F-gases1%
N2O8%
CH414%
CO2 (deforesta-tion, decay of biomass, etc)
17%CO2 (other)
3%
CO2 (fossil fuel use)57%
F-gases
N2O
CH4
CO2 (deforestation, decay of biomass, etc)
CO2 (other)
CO2 (fossil fuel use)
Carbon Dioxide Data: TheKeeling Curve
30 billion tons of carbon dioxide are annually added to the atmosphere as a result of human activity
Greenhouse Effect
In Summary
• Carbon Cycle: Source and Sinks• Greenhouse Gases • Greenhouse Effect• Human Influences
The Earth’s Energy Budget and the Climate System
• How would changing the Earth’s surface impact the absorption, reflection, and radiation of the sun’s energy?
ACTIVITY
AlbedoTo calculate albedo, divide the reflective light by the incidence (incoming) light: Albedo = Reflective light
Incidence light
to convert to a percentage multiply by 100
For example: The florescent lights measured 507 lux (incidence light) and the floor measured 87 lux (reflective light). The floors albedo is: 87 lux/507 lux = 0.17 albedo In other words the floor is reflecting 0.17 (17%) and absorbed 0.83 (83%) of the light.
Source: Avery and Berlin (1992)
Material Percent ReflectedFresh Snow 80-95Thick Cloud 70-80Water (sun near horizon) 50-80Old Snow 50-60Thin soil 25-45Dry soil 20-25Wet soil 15-25Deciduous forest 15-20Dark soil 5-15Asphalt 5-10Crops 10-25Coniferous forest 10-15Water (sun near zenith) 3-5
Summary of Earth’s Energy Budget
We change the Earth’s Energy Budget by:
1) Changing the Earth’s Albedo, changing the Earth’s land surface and land cover
And/or
2) Enhancing the greenhouse effect
These Changes Cause
GLOBAL WARMING
Global Warming
BREAK
Climate Data, Variability, & Change
Analyzing Data from Local to Global Scales
Local Regional/State
National Global
“Zooming Out” to See Big Picture
LocalANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE - CHICAGO
Annual 1958 - 2010 Average = 49.40 degF Annual 1958 - 2010 Trend = 0.38 degF / Decade
LocalANNUAL PRECIPITATION - CHICAGO
Annual 1958 - 2010 Average = 35.87 Inches Annual 1958 - 2010 Trend = 0.92 Inches / Decade
Regional/State
ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE - INDIANAAnnual 1901 - 2000 Average = 51.76 degF
Annual 1895 - 2010 Trend = 0.03 degF / Decade
Regional/State
ANNUAL PRECIPITATION - INDIANAAnnual 1901 - 2000 Average = 40.10 Inches
Annual 1895 - 2010 Trend = 0.44 Inches / Decade
NationalANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE - CONUS
Annual 1901 - 2000 Average = 52.79 degF Annual 1895 - 2010 Trend = 0.12 degF / Decade
NationalANNUAL PRECIPITATION - CONUS
Annual 1901 - 2000 Average = 29.14 Inches Annual 1895 - 2010 Trend = 0.18 Inches / Decade
Global
ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES - GLOBAL
Global
ANNUAL PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES - GLOBAL
Did you notice any variability over time and the different spatial scales?
Other Climate Data Types
El Niño / La Niña
Typical Wintertime Patterns
Sea Ice Extent
Drought Information
The chart below shows temperature changes in the Pacific Ocean waters off of the coast of Peru from 1950 to 2013. The red areas of the chart above the normal
line record El Niño events.
Predicting Our Future Climate
The Advance of Climate Model Computing Power
Source: IPCC
Verification of Simulated Temperature
Source: IPCC AR4
Different Simulation Scenarios of Various CO2 Concentrations
Climate Change Simulations:Possible Future Outcome
NCAR/UCARNational Center for Atmospheric Research
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Climate Change Simulation, 1870–2100 Dual-globe View, Climate Change Simulation,1870–2100
VideoVideo
LUNCH
Changes in the
Climate System
VideoWisconsin Educational Communications Board
ACTIVITY
Looking at DataHow do the data show possible changes in the system?
How have individual components changed over time? What is the evidence of this change? How is this change related to global warming? Describe how the other components of the climate system impact the component. Describe how changes to the component might impact the other components of the climate system
How might these changes impact climate?
Changes to the Climate System
Ice
http://www.nat-park.com/grinnell-glacier-glacier-national-park/
http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/greenland-ice-sheet/greenland-ice-sheet-assessment-published
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Change in Volume of Glaciers Worldwide, 1960-2006
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Mass Balance of Three Typical U.S. Glaciers, 1958-2008
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Duration of Ice Cover for Selected U.S. Lakes, 1850-2000
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Ice Freeze Dates for Selected U.S. Lakes, 1850-2000
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Ice Thaw Dates for Selected U.S. Lakes, 1850-2000
Black dot = North Pole Yellow lines indicate normal extent of iceSeptember 2001 March 2002 September 2004 March 2005
September 2007 March 2008 September 2009 March 2010
NASA Earth Observatory
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Snow-Covered Area in North America, 1972-2008
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Trends in April Snowpack in the Western U.S. and Canada, 1950-2000
Looking at DataHow do the data show possible changes in the system?
Oceans
Temperature Change
Global temperature change (NASA)
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Ocean Heat Content, 1955-2008
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Average Global Sea Surface Temperature, 1880-2009
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Trends in Global Average Absolute Sea Level, 1870-2008
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Trends in Relative Sea Level Among U.S. Coasts, 1958-2008
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Historical Change in Ocean Acidity, 1700s-1990s
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Ocean Carbon Dioxide Levels and Acidity, 1983-2005
Coral Bleaching Episodes
The chart below shows temperature changes in the Pacific Ocean waters off of the coast of Peru from 1950 to 2006. The red areas of the chart above the normal
line record El Niño events.
Looking at DataHow do the data show possible changes in the system?
Vegetation
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Change in Plant Hardiness Zones,1990-2006
Niche model geographic range prediction sequence for loblolly pine under a climate scenario of geographically uniform increase in mean, maximum, and minimum annual temperature, by half degree increments.
http://www.colorado.edu/research/cires/banff/pubpapers/104/
Loblolly Pine predicted range with temperature increases.
Green: High productive areas
Yellow: Average productive areas
Red: Low productive areas
Niche model geographic range prediction sequence for sugar maple under a climate scenario of geographicallyuniform increase in mean, maximum, and minimum annual temperature, by half degree increments.
http://www.colorado.edu/research/cires/banff/pubpapers/104/
Sugar Maple predicted ranges with temperature increases.
Green: High productive areas
Yellow: Average productive areas
Red: Low productive areas
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Length of Growing Season in the Lower 48 States, 1900-2002
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Length of Growing Season in the Lower 48 States, 1900-2002, West Versus East
http://www.globalforestwatch.org http://www.flickr.com
Trends in Forest Cover
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
First Leaf Dates in the Lower 48 States, 1900-2008
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
First Bloom Dates in the Lower 48 States, 1900-2008
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Timing of Last Spring Frost and First Fall Frost in the Lower 48, 1900-2002
Looking at DataHow do the data show possible changes in the system?
Land
Source: Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT)
World Population Density 2000
Urban Environments and Climate
Environmental Parameter
Impact
Temperature +2-8oF annual mean+2-3 week freeze-free season
Wind +5-20% calm days
Relative Humidity -2% winter, -8% summer
Cloudiness +5-10% cloud cover
Precipitation +5-10% amount
http://soils.usda.gov/use/worldsoils/mapindex/desert.html
Desertification Vulnerability
Percent Area of the United States in Severe and Extreme Drought
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Northward Shift of Bird Migrations, 1966-2005
Changes in Land Cover (1700-1990)
Looking at DataHow do the data show possible changes in the system?
Atmosphere
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
U.S. Greenhouse Emissions by Gas, 1990-2008
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
U.S. Greenhouse Emissions and Sinks by Economic Sector, 1990-2008
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Gas, 1990-2005
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector, 1990-2005
Annual Precipitation, US
Indiana Annual Precipitation
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Precipitation in the Lower 48 States, 1901-2009
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Rate of Precipitation Change in the U.S., 1901-2008
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Temperatures in the Lower 48 States, 1901-2009
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
Rate of Temperature Change in the U.S., 1901-2008
Annual Temperature, U.S.A.
Indiana Annual Temperature
Temperature Change
Global temperature change (NASA)
Looking at DataHow do the data show possible changes in the system?
Systems Summary
• What are the major changes in the different components?
• What are the different data that are used in understanding these changes?
• How do changes in one component affect the others?
• What could be the relation between GW and the system changes? (causes and effects)
BREAK
Adaptationand
Mitigation:Responding to a Changing
Climate
Video
Adaptations and Mitigation:An Introduction
• What are the roles of mitigation and adaptation in responding to climate change?
• What are several actions that humans can take as individuals and as a society to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change?
Wisconsin Educational Communications Board
Wedge Stabilization GameWedge Stabilization Game
This presentation is based on the “Stabilization Wedges” concept first presented in:
"Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the next 50 Years with Current Technologies,” S. Pacala and R.
Socolow, Science, August 13, 2004.
Or visit our wedges webpage at http://www.princeton.edu/wedges
2 2 = 4 billion tons go out
Ocean Land Biosphere (net)
Fossil FuelBurning
+
8
800billion tons carbon
4billion
tons go in
ATMOSPHERE
billion tons added every year
Billions of tons of carbon
“Doubled” CO2
Today
Pre-Industrial
Glacial
800
1200
600
400
billions of tons carbon
ATMOSPHERE
( ppm )
(570)
(380)
(285)
(190)
Past, Present, and Potential FutureCarbon Levels in the Atmosphere
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year
Historical emissions
0
8
16
1950 2000 2050 2100
Historical Emissions
1.6
Interim Goal
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year
Current p
ath = “ramp”
Historical emissions Flat path
Stabilization Triangle
0
8
16
1950 2000 2050 2100
The Stabilization Triangle
1.6
Interim Goal
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year
Current p
ath = “ramp”
Historical emissions Flat path
Stabilization Triangle
0
8
16
1950 2000 2050 2100
The Stabilization Triangle
Tougher CO2 target
~500 ppm
~850 ppm
Easier CO2 target
1.6
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year
Current p
ath = “ramp”
Historical emissions Flat path
0
8
16
1950 2000 2050 2100
Stabilization Wedges
16 GtC/y
Eight “wedges”
Goal: In 50 years, sameglobal emissions as today
What is a “Wedge”?A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr. The strategy has already been commercialized at scale somewhere.
1 GtC/yr
50 years
Total = 25 Gigatons carbon
Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years. This is 2.5 trillion dollars at $100/tC.
A “solution” to the CO2 problem should provide at least one wedge.
Energy Efficiency & Conservation (4)
CO2 Capture & Storage (3)
Stabilization Triangle
Renewable Fuels& Electricity (4)
Forest and Soil Storage (2)
Fuel Switching(1)
15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories
Nuclear Fission (1)
2007 20578 GtC/y
16 GtC/y
TriangleStabilization
Take Home MessagesTake Home Messages
• In order to avoid a doubling of atmospheric CO2, we need to rapidly deploy low-carbon energy technologies and/or enhance natural sinks
• We already have an adequate portfolio of technologies to make large cuts in emissions
• No one technology can do the whole job – a variety of strategies will need to be used to stay on a path that avoids a CO2 doubling
• Every “wedge” has associated impacts and costs
Wedge Strategy Summary:The impact on the components of
the climate system?1
Actions
and
Impacts
Climate System – Action Steps
Example Climate Change Impact
Climate Issue Impact Actions• Increased rain flooding rain barrels• Increased hot days Higher utility bills Plant
native shade trees• Longer growing season Increased crop yield
potential Revised planting dates/strategies• Altered tropical wind/circulation Increased
threat of pests and pathogens Altered pesticide use
Scenarios:Responding to a Changing Climate
ACTIVITY
Think about:• Which activity/activities you could engage in and
why?• Which activity/activities would be difficult for you to
do and why?• Which activities your community could implement
and why?
Changing the World through Influence
• Liking– People respond more positively to people they view positively.
• Social Proof– People do things they see others do.
• Authority– People tend to obey figures of authority.
• Perceived Scarcity– A perceived lack of something makes that item more valuable.
• Reciprocity– People tend to return a favor.
• Consistency– People do things they see as exemplifying their image of themselves.
(Cialdini, Robert (2008). “Influence: Science and Practice.” 5th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson.)
What I will do today and tomorrow?
Three local climate issues -Individual actions to mitigate or adapt
Example: Recycling reduces energy use and landfill space
ACTIVITY
Individual Community & Regional
• How does this action impact the community?• How can one persuade others to take this
action?• If the community takes this action, does it
impact a broader group of people?• If so, how can this broad group take action to
continue expanding the impact? (regional and beyond)
Citizen Action Examples
• iMatter• Climate education networks• Cornell Citizen Science Clearinghouse• USGS Gauging Stations• CoCoRaHS (Community Collaborative Rain Hail
& Snow Networks) • Earth Force • Hoosier Riverwatch
Video
The Road Traveled: Revisiting the Purpose and Goals
Purpose: Improve your climate literacyGoals:• What is a climate system and its components?• What are causes and effects of component change?• What are the impacts of these changes?• What can we do about it?
Where do you line up on the Climate Knowledge Continuum now?
ACTIVITY
Where are you on the climate knowledge continuum?
How confident do you feel in your knowledge of the components of a climate system?
1 6
Not at all Moderately Confident! Confident
Where are you on the climate knowledge continuum?
How well do you understand the causes and effects of changes to the components of the
climate system? 1 6
No Moderately Thoroughly
Understanding Understand Understand
Where are you on the climate knowledge continuum?
How well do you understand the impacts of changes to the Earth’s climate system?
1 6
No Moderately Thoroughly
Understanding Understand Understand
Where are you on the climate knowledge continuum?
How prepared/empowered do you feel as an individual to address the issue of climate change?
1 6 I feel I’m sure there’s I have the Hopeless something I can do POWER!
Wrap-up: Topics Covered
Climate and WeatherEarth’s Energy BudgetGreenhouse Gases and Greenhouse EffectCarbon CycleGlobal Warming, Climate Variability, and Climate ChangeClimate System Changes to the Climate SystemAdaptation and MitigationPersonal Actions
For Additional Information
Iclimate.org/ccc
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