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TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035 Rangan Banerjee Forbes Marshall Chair Professor Department of Energy Science and Engineering IIT Bombay Presentation at IOCL R&D Technology Foresight Programme - 3 rd August, 2013

TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

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Page 1: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

TIFACEnergy Technology Vision - 2035

Rangan Banerjee

Forbes Marshall Chair Professor

Department of Energy Science and Engineering

IIT Bombay

Presentation at IOCL R&D Technology Foresight Programme - 3rd August, 2013

Page 2: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

Timeline – TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035

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Constitution

of Advisory

Group –

Energy

Technology

Theme

TIFAC-

Technology

Vision 2035:

Constitution

of Apex

Committee

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2nd Meeting-

Advisory

Committee -

Energy

Technology

1st Meeting

– Apex

Committee,

TIFAC TV

2035 held at

New Delhi

Students

Initiative -

ETV 2035

presentatio

n to IITB

students

1st Meeting-

Advisory

Committee -

Energy

Technology

Preminary

Draft Report

- TIFAC

Energy

Technology

Vision 2035 D

ec

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3, 2

01

2

National

Apex

Committee,

Meeting-

TIFAC TV

2035 at

Delhi

Ju

l. 1

5, 2

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2

22 New

websites

and promo

video

launched

Facebook

Did You

Know

campaign

and

DRISHTI

competition

launched

Group

Coordinators

and

Ambassadors

nomination

started

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3rd Meeting-

Advisory

Committee -

Energy

Technology

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4th Meeting-

Advisory

Committee -

Energy

Technology

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send to

members

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Page 3: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

Advisory Group Members – ETV2035

Committee Members Mr. S P Dharne - Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL), Mumbai

Dr. Naushad Forbes - Chairman & Managing Director, Forbes Marshall Pvt. Ltd., Pune

Dr. Anuradda Ganesh – Professor, IIT Bombay

Dr. Gautam Goswami / Shri. Manish Kumar - Director , TIFAC

Dr. Hari Shankar Jain - Executive Director, (R&D), BHEL, Hyderabad

Dr. Ajit K. Kolar – Professor, IIT Madras

Dr. Arun Kumar / Shri. Sanjay Khazanchi - President, Dev Alternatives,

Shri. Ashvini Kumar - Director, Ministry of New and Renewable Energy

Shri. Sanjay Prakash – Director, SHiFt: Studio for Habitat Futures

Dr. Rangan Banerjee (Chairman) - Professor, IIT Bombay

Invitees / Authors Prof. Santanu Bandyopadhyay, Professor, IIT Bombay

Prof. Anand B. Rao, Professor, IIT Bombay

Prof. Arindam Sarkar, Professor, IIT Bombay

Prof. Doolla Suryanarayana, Professor, IIT Bombay

Dr. Mahesh Patankar, MP Ensystems Advisory Pvt. Ltd., Mumbai

Dr. Indu Pillai, ATE Enterprises Pvt. Ltd., Pune

Mr. R. R. Sahaya, Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL), Mumbai

Mr. Jay Dhariwal / Ms. Tejal Kanitkar, Research Scholar, IIT Bombay

3

Page 4: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

Outline of ETV 2035 report (~ 175 pages)

1 Preamble / Context 3-7

1.1 Challenges for the Energy Sector 8

2 Energy Scenarios 10-20

2.1 Drivers for scenarios

2.2 2035 Scenarios – Possibilities

3 Energy Technologies

3.1 Buildings and Communities energy use 21-28

3.2 Industrial Sector – efficiency 29-37

3.3 Energy for Transport 38-44

3.4 Fossil Fuel / Conventional Technologies

3.4.1 Clean Coal / Advanced Coal 45-54

3.4.2 Oil and Gas 55-62

3.4.3 Power equipment technologies 63-72

Page 5: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

Outline of ETV 2035 report (contd.)

3.5 Renewables

3.5.1 Biomass 73-79

3.5.2 Solar Technologies 80-82

3.5.3 Wind, Hydro and other renewables 83-89

3.6 Nuclear Energy 90-99

3.7 Rural Energy Technologies

3.7.1 Rural Energy (electricity) 100-110

3.7.2 Rural Energy (non electricity) 111-119

3.8

3.8.1 Batteries and Storage 120-136

3.8.2 Smart Grids 137

3.9 Students Initiative 138-149

4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future (beyond 2035)

Goals for Technology Development / Strategies

150

5 Summary / Conclusion 151-171

Annexures 172-175

Page 6: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

Technology Forecasting

Extrapolative/ Exploratory

Normative

Brainstorming

Scenario generation

Learning Curves

Diffusion

Substitution

6

Page 7: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

TF Techniques

Exploratory/Extrapolative

Technology driver. Capability desired when available

Trend Exploration,

Growth Curves,

Lead- Lag analogy,

Normative-future needs

met

Relevance Trees

Mission Flow

Diagram

Morphological Methods

Delphi, Scenario Generation

Page 8: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

Global Share of Primary Energy mix

8

Source: GEA, 2012

Page 9: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

9

India and World (Selected Indicators for 2010)

Population

1171 million

6825 million

GDP (PPP) 3763 Billion 2005 US$

(3213 $/person)

68431 Billion 2005 US$

(10,027 $/person)

Primary Energy 29.0 EJ 532.4 EJ

Energy/person 24.7 GJ/person/year 78.0 GJ/person/year

Electricity/person 644kWh/capita/year 2892 kWh/capita/year

CO2 emissions

Per person

Per GDP

1626 Million tonnes 30326 Million tonnes

1.39 tonnes /capita/year 4.44 tonnes /capita/year

0.43 kg /US$ ppp 0.44 kg /US$ ppp

Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2012

Page 10: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

10

Page 11: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

11

Source: IIASA- WEC Study

//www.iiasa.ac.at

World Energy Mix

Page 12: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

Primary Energy Mix

12

Renewables and Nuclear

Coal Oil and Gas

20%

40%

60%

80%

0

0

0

Page 13: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

Share of Energy Imports - India

13

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Import Share (INDIA)

Page 14: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

Electricity Mix Scenarios

14

Page 15: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

HDI vs Primary Energy supply

15Source: Steinberger, Roberts, 2009

Page 16: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

HDI and Electricity use

Source: Pasternak, 200016

Page 17: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

Business as Usual Scenarios for 2035

2010

2035

5%

(Low)

6.4%

(Moderate)

8%

(High)

Population (in billions) 1.15 1.52 1.52 1.52

GDP (in US 2005 Billion PPP) 3763 12743 17745 25771

GDP/ capita 3272 8495 11830 17180

Primary Energy (in EJ) 29 58 81 118

Primary Energy per capita (in

GJ) 25 38 53 77

Electricity Supply (in billion

units) 811 3009 4190 6085

Electricity Supply (in units/

capita) 705 1979 2756 4003

17

Page 18: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

Supply Scenarios for 2035 (BAU- Moderate) -Electricity- High Coal (A)

Supply Scenario (BAU) - 2%

Projections for 2035 Coal

Natural

Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro

Renewa

bles Total

% Electricity Supply

Share 66% 12% 2% 3% 11% 6% 100%

Electricity Supply/

year (in billion kWh) 2765 503 84 126 461 251 4190

Average Load Factor 70% 70% 16% 70% 38% 26%

Installed Capacity

(in GW) 449 82 59 20 137 112 860

18

Page 19: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

Supply Scenarios for 2035 Electricity- High Renewables and Nuclear (C)

Supply Scenario

Green (Coal

Low, Nuclear

High, Renewables

Moderately High )

Projections for 2035 Coal

Natural

Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro

Renewa

bles Total

% Electricity Supply

Share 40% 12% 2% 13% 11% 22% 100%

Electricity Supply/

year (in billion kWh) 1676 503 84 545 461 922 4190

Average Load Factor 70% 70% 16% 70% 38% 26%

Installed Capacity

(in GW) 272 82 59 89 137 412 1051

19

Page 20: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

20

Diffusion curve

L wind potential estimate.

P cumulative installed capacity

dP/dt increment in installed capacity

)( PLPdt

dP

Page 21: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

21

Diffusion curve

BtAP

L

ln1ln

BtAe

LP

1 Value of coefficients R2

A B

641.99 -0.03 0.88

Page 22: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

22

Diffusion Curves for wind energy

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Year

Inst

all

ed C

ap

aci

ty (

MW

)

Actual Installation

Diffusion curve

Upper limit of uncertainityLow er limit of uncertainity

Forecast Values by MNRE

Potential = 45000MW

a1

a2

a

am

Page 23: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

23

Wind Diffusion

Page 24: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

24

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

110000

120000

130000

140000

150000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Ins

tall

ed

Ca

pa

cit

y (

MW

)

Year

Diffusion Curves for wind energy

Diffusion curve

Upper limit of uncertainity

Lower limit of uncertainity

Potential = 103000MW

Page 25: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

25

Diffusion of SWH

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Year

So

lar W

ate

r H

ea

tin

g C

ap

acit

y (

co

llecto

r a

rea

in

mil

lio

n

sq. m

.)..

Actual installed (million sq. m.)Potential 140 million sq. m.Potential 60 million sq. m.Potential 200 million sq. m.Extrapolated Potential (million sq.m.)

Potential = 60 million m 2

Potential = 140 million m 2

Potential = 200 million m 2

Estimated Potential in

2092 = 199 million m2

Page 26: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

Model for Potential Estimation of Target Area

Target areaWeather data, area details

Identification and Classification of different end uses by sector (i)

Residential (1) Hospital

(2)Nursing

Homes (3)

Hotels

(4)

Others

(5)

POTENTIAL OF SWHS IN TARGET AREA

Technical Potential (m2 of collector area)

Economic Potential (m2 of collector area)

Market Potential (m2 of collector area)

Energy Savings Potential (kWh/year)

Load Shaving Potential (kWh/ hour for a monthly average day)

Sub-class (i, j)

Classification based on factors* (j)

Technical Potential

Economic Potential Market Potential

Potential for end use

sector (i = 1)

Potential

for i = 2

Potential

for i = 5

Potential

for i = 4

Potential

for i = 3

Page 27: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

Base load for heating

Electricity/ fuel savings

Economic viability

Price of electricity

Investment for

SWHS

Technical

PotentialSWHS

capacity

Constraint: roof

area availability

Capacity of SWHS (Collector area)

TargetAuxiliary heating

Single end use point

Micro simulation using TRNSYS

Hot water

usage pattern

Weather

data

SIMULATION

Auxiliary heating requirement

No. of end

use points

Technical

Potential

Economic

Potential

Economic

Constraint

Market

Potential

Constraint:

market

acceptance

Potential for end use sector (i = 1)

* Factors affecting the adoption/sizing of

solar water heating systems

Sub-class (i, j)

Classification based on factors* (j)

Single end use point

POTENTIAL

SECTOR (i)

Page 28: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

28Source: www.eia.doe.gov Wood and Long,2000

Page 29: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

29Source: www.eia.doe.gov Wood and Long,2000

Page 30: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

Learning Curve for Renewables

IPCC, 2012

Page 31: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

Trend in Wind Machine Size

IPCC, 2012

Page 32: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

Buildings and Energy use 2035

32

Populatio

n

Building

Stock

Building

Stock/cap

Embodied

Energy

Operating

Energy

Total

Energy

Total

Energy/cap

Scenario x109

people

109 sqm sqm/per 109

kWh(th)/yr

109

kWh(th)/yr

109

kWh(th)/yr

W(th)/per

"Today"

2010

1.15 10.9 9.44 2751 2757 5508 546

A. Business

as Usual

1.50 17.4 11.61 8723 7298 16021 1218

B. Green 1.50 17.4 11.61 8723 5360 14083 1071

C.

Sustainable

1.50 17.4 11.61 4272 5360 9632 733

D.

Sustainable

& Equitable

1.50 19.3 12.89 4806 6256 11062 841

E.

Sustainable

, Equitable

and Urban

1.50 20.2 13.44 3427 3964 7391 562

Page 33: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

Technologies corresponding to Building scenarios

33

Scenario Structures and infill Finishes Operations Comfort levels

A.Business as

Usual

Concrete framed, bricks,

concrete blocks

Steel and aluminium

openings, fired

ceramic surface

finishes

Some window/ other

low efficiency air-

conditioning, CFL and

TLD lamps

Poor, with energy

shortages contributing

to the low standards

B. Green Concrete framed, concrete

blocks

UPVC and aluminium

openings, fired

ceramic surface

finishes

Some better efficiency

air-conditioning, CFL

and TLD lamps, solar

hot water and some

SPV

Better, with operating

demand containment

leading to fewer

blackouts, but

manufacturing demand

remains high

C. Sustainable Concrete and composite

framed and hybrid

structures, flyash containing

blocks

UPVC openings, cast

tiled surface finishes

Some better efficiency

air-conditioning, CFL

and TLD lamps, solar

hot water and some

SPV

Good, with demand

containment leading to

better energy security

for manufacture as well

as operations

D. Sustainable &

Equitable

Concrete and composite

framed and hybrid

structures, flyash containing

blocks

UPVC openings, cast

tiled surface finishes

Some better efficiency

air-conditioning, CFL

and TLD lamps, solar

hot water and some

SPV

Good, as above but

also available to greater

number of the lower

middle class

E. Sustainable,

Equitable and

Urban

Composite framed and

hybrid structures, carbon

absorbing concrete, flyash

and earth and stone blocks,

extensive recycling of debris

UPVC and advanced

composites for

openings, cast and

stone tiled and

recycled surface

finishes

Very high efficiency

air-conditioning,

hybrid cooling

systems, low velocity

fans, LED and CFL

lamps, distributed RE

generation

Very good, with

demand containment

leading to extreme

energy security for

manufacture as well as

operations

Page 34: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

Coal technology comparison

34

Technology

Feature

PC-Conv PC-SC/USC PCFBC-SC-CC IGCC

Type Dedicated Power

Plant

Dedicated Power

Plant

Dedicated Power

Plant

Chemical Plant with

production of power,

chemicals, liquid

fuels and hydrogen

Complexity Simplest Simple Complex Very complex

Plant Integration Combustor-ST

(Sub critical

Condition )

Combustor-

ST(Supercritical

Condition )

Combustor-GT-ST Gasifier-GT-ST

Fuel Flexibility No No High Low

Operational

flexibility

Good Good Satisfactory Low

SOx Control Not Required for

Indian Coal

Not Required for

Indian Coal

Inherent Inherent

NOx as NO2 High High Acceptable High in gas

combustor

N2O Low Low High Low

Particulates Only ESP Required Only ESP Required HTHP filters

required

HTHP filters required

Reliability High , Proven High , Proven To be

demonstrated

To be demonstrated

Expected Plant*

Efficiency %

35.7 40.3 / 42.3 44.6 40.9

Page 35: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

Oil technology summary and issues

35

Area Technological, Assessment, and Other Issues

Explorations

and production

Appraisal of the entire Indian sedimentary basins Optimization of the recovery from the discovered and future fields Enhanced oil recovery technologies to be developed/adopted Technologies should be developed/adopted to reduce gas flaring Exploration and production technologies for non-conventional gas sources Accurate estimation of various alternative sources: Shale Gas, Tight Gas,

Coal Bed Methane, Gas Hydrates, underground coal gasification, etc. Technological developments for exploration and production of

hydrocarbons form these alternative sources Technological development for oil substitutes: bio-fuels, coal-to-liquids,

and gas-to-liquids, etc.

Refining Process low-cost high-sulphur and heavy crudes, along with deep-cut operations of other crudes

Development of better catalysis for handling opportunistic crudes Technological developments on oxidative, biocatalytic, adsorption, and

membrane technologies Hydrogen production from heavier fossil fuels and hydrocarbon waste Optimization of hydrogen usage Continuous benchmarking to reduce ‗Fuel and Loss‘ Development of integrated bio-refinery Reprocessing petroleum processing waste Integration of solar thermal technologies for process heat demands

Page 36: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

Oil technology summary and issues (contd.)

36

Area Technological, Assessment, and Other Issues

TransmissionandDistribution

Development of national gas grid Development of city gas distribution system Development of re-gasification facilities for liquefied natural gas

DemandReduction

Reduction of gas turbine based power plant through energy conservationand demand side management

Energy conservation to reduce hydrocarbon requirement Development of grid level energy storage to reduce peak power demand Energy storage for renewable power plants to reduce spinning gas turbine

power plant

Transport Energy labeling for entire transportation sector Intelligent traffic control Hybrid vehicles Efficient rail transportation system

Others Export value added petroleum products Technology development for coal to oil Acquiring overseas basins Strategic crude oil storage for around 30days‘ demand

Page 37: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

Industrial End-use Efficiency

37

2035-2050 – Employing innovative solution (eg: Oxy flame boilers, steam engines). Saving ~ 2-5 %2020-2035 – Best practice technology (eg: Efficiency Optimization for boilers & processes). Saving ~ 4-6 %

2010-2020 – Reduce waste (eg: flash steam recovery, replace leaking traps). Saving ~ 10-15 %

Page 38: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

PCFBC – SupC – CC - POWER PLANT

Cold cleanup

HTHP filter (supplementary)

CombustorFilter

PFBG

NaturalGas

ST ~

~

PCFBC -

SupC

CA

Crushed Coal

GT

HRSG

Chimney

Biomass

Condenser

Syngas

( + Biomass?)Pump

To ST

Exhaust

From HRSGC

CA

Pump

CA = Compressed Air38

Page 39: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

Advanced Coal Technologies

39

Technologies Status

Short Term Medium Term Long term

PC SC Induction Diffusion & Standard Standard

PC USC R and D Tech Dev &Diffusion Standard

ACFBC Induction Induction &

Diffusion

Large Scale

Use

PCFBC SC CC R and D Demo &Induction Diffusion

Coal gasification Demo Induction &

Diffusion

Standard

IGCC Demo Induction Diffusion

SOFC R and D Demo Induction

IGFC R and D Demo Induction

UCG R and D Demo Induction

CCS R and D Demo Induction

Material

development

R and D Induction Diffusion

Page 40: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

Cost Of Energy Supply- Renewable

40

Page 41: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

Biomass

Power generation --including:

Biomass based power generation

Co-firing

Co-generation

Thermal Applications

Fuel substitution of Furnace oil and coal

Transport sector—

As substitutes for petrol, diesel or aviation fuels

Non –commercial cooking and other thermal applications

Fuel preparation and supply chain

Development of an organised sector

Biomass pricing

Biomass Briquetting/pelletising

Biomass – Renewable – Source of Carbon

Energy Vs Use as Fibres, Feedstock for chemicals fertilisers and food.

41

Page 42: TIFAC Energy Technology Vision - 2035rb/Professional Activities/ETV2035 Aug.pdf · Timeline –TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 ... 4 Blue Sky Research/ Technology for the future

Thermal conversion

Combustion

Cook stoves

Co-firing in large scale coal fired boilers, Industrial boilers for process steam and power generation, industrial furnaces, domestic water heaters

Gasification

Power generation using engine

Firing in industrial furnaces, small inverted gasifierstoves for cooking

Power generation using gas turbines, precursor for Fischer-Trophs process for production of liquid fuels , Production of Hydrogen for fuel and chemicals

Pyrolysis

Bio-oil for upgradation to transportation fuels with or without charcoal as a byproduct

Biomass Routes

(green—short term target, red---long term target, blue medium term target)42

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Battery Comparision

43

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44

Energy Storage

device

Energy

density/

Capacity

(Wh/kg)

Efficiency

of

recovery

(%)

Approximate

cost (in rupees

/kWh)

Advantages Disadvantages Life time

(yr)/

charge-

discharge)

cycles

Suitability

Applications

Comments/

Recommendations

Lead acid

batteries

25 – 45 60 - 95 3500 – 10,500 Low capital cost Low energy

density, Toxic

5 /

250‐1,000

No new

improvement

Nickel batteries 20 -120 60 - 91 14,000 – 30,000 High power and

energy density

High cost,

Toxicity

10 – 15

/50,000

R&D required

Lithium batteries 80 -150 90 - 100 10,000 – 17,500 High power and

energy density

High cost,

limited supply of

lithium

NA/5000 R&D required, may

be viable

Sodium sulphur

batteries

150 – 240 > 86 % 12,000 High power and

energy density

High cost, liquid

Sodium

NA/40,000 R&D required, is

viable

Metal air

batteries

110 – 420 ~ 50 % NA High power and

energy density

Charging issues NA Unproven

technology

Redox flow

batteries

250 MWh > 75 % 90,000

/MW

Hig h (depends

on tanks)

Low energy

density

15 /10,000 R&D required, is

viable

Fuel cells NA 25 – 58 % 4,20,000 –

21,00,000/MW

High power Expensive

catalyst

NA R&D required, may

be viable

Electro-chemical

capacitors

0.1- 5 85 – 98 % 14,000 – 70,000 Long life, high

efficiency

Low energy

density

NA/> 106 R&D required

Pumped

hydroelectric

NA 75 – 80 % 10,000 – 50,000

/ MW

High capacity,

low cost

Geology

dependent

NA Geological features

need to be identified

Flywheels 30 – 100 90 % 2,00,000 –

7,00,000

High power Low energy

density

NA R&D required, may

not be viable

Super conducting

magnets

NA 97 – 98 % 24,500 High power Sensitivity &

cost

NA Unproven

technology

Renewable Integration Micro Grid Home storage Automotive Large Grid

Mature and available Development and available Development and demonstration Development

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IIT Bombay Student Initiative orientation

45

Orientation about the initiative in IIT Bombay in April, 2012

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Framework on ETV student website

46

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ETV Facebook page

47

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ETVision2035 new website

48

http://www.etvision2035.in/

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ETVision2035 promo video

49

Snapshot of the promo video on youtubehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_58aWKoOt0

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50

Map showing the Ambassadors from over 30 colleges

ETV Ambassadors – colleges

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Etvision 2035 Poster

51

Poster that was sent to different colleges in India

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"DRISHTI‖ competition

52

"DRISHTI" was launched in October, 2012

DRISHTI poster

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Snippets from the Board Game

53

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Facebook "Did You Know" Campaign

54

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Summary Table template proposed

(Please sort

these

technologies

in order of

priority within

each

chapter, and

group them

as much as

possible)

Short Term

(2020)

Medium Term

(2035)

Capability

M-

Manufacturing

R&D-Research

and

Development

Barriers Implementation

strategies

Remarks and

Explanatory

Comments

Technology/

System

PCSC

Induction

(stage 3)

Indian PCSC

Standardized

(stage 4)

M-Stunted

today due to

lack of

investment

R&D- gaps

exist

Cheap and

unreliable

Chinese

imports

Incentivize

indigenous

technology

development

Tech

development

should focus on

Indian Quality

of Coal to

increase

indigenous

development of

the sector

Part 1. Prioritised List of Energy Technologies /Systems

(Replace all the italicized parts with your inputs and delete the italicized text)

55

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Summary Table template proposed (contd.)

Part 3. Blue Sky Research (Beyond 2035)

(Please list

these

technologies)

Expected Time

Frame with Stage

Significance of

Technology/

System in the

Energy Economy

Suggested National

Strategy for

Technology

Development or

Acquisition

Risks and

Probability of

Success

Fusion 2050 for RD&D Allows large scale

renewable zero

emissions energy

production

Import; maintain

alliances with

international blocks

conducting this

RD&D

High risk, success

may still need high

investment and

acquisition costs

Part 2. Enabling PoliciesPolicy 1Policy 2Policy 3Policy 4

56

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Enabling Policies

57

Buildings

Policy 1: Competitive market driven feed in tariffs

Policy 2: Dynamic tariff and real-time trade

Policy 3: Mandating thermal comfort standards based on new research on

adaptive comfort and operative temperatures

Policy 4: Creation of sufficiency standards to enable lifeline levels of access

to building services

Policy 5: Enabling extremely high levels (household levels) of distributed

power generation

Policy 6: Creating multiple models of property use: ownership, lease,

fractional, temporal

Policy 7: Rationalization of land value

Policy 8: Mandating construction standards for recycling water, debris etc.

Policy 9: Extreme incentives for efficiency and substitution of building

materials

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Nuclear Summary Table

58

Short Medium Capability

(Mfg and

RD&D)

Barriers Implementation

Strategies

Comments

IPHWR

(standardiz

ed)

Growth Saturation Exists Fuel

availability

U-238

Indigenous

BWR

(Imported)

Establishing

and

Multiplication

Saturation To be

developed

Manufacturi

ng,

Import of

technology with

component

indigenization in

phased manner

PWR

(Imported)

Establishing

and

Multiplication

Saturation To be

developed

Manufacturi

ng,

Import of

technology with

component

indigenization in

phased manner

IPWR Design &

Development

Maturing,

Establishing

Fuel

enrichment

/

manufacturi

ng

Indigenous

FBR Maturing of

Technology

Establishing

and

Multiplication

Prototype

reactor in

progress.

Experience

gathered from

FBTR

Manufacturi

ng,

reprocessin

g capacity

augmentati

on

Important

for thorium

utilization

AHWR Technology

development

Prototype +

Commercial

RD&D

intensive

Design and

RD&D in

progress

Important

for thorium

utilization

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References TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 draft report 2013. Pasternak, A.D. (2000) A.D Pasternak, Global Energy Futures and Development, UCRL-ID-

40773, 2000. Steinberger, J.K. and Roberts, J.T. (2009) Across a Moving Threshold:energy, carbon and

the efficiency of meeting global human development needs, Vienna. Kanitkar, T. and Banerjee, R. (2011) Power Sector Planning in India, Journal of Economic

Policy and Research, 7(1), 1-23, October, 2011. Bloomberg (2012) Bloomberg, Global Trends In Renewable Energy Investment 2012,

Frankfurt School of Finance & Management gGmbH, 2012 P. Van den Bossche, F. Vergels, J. Van Mierlo, J. Matheys, W. Van Autenboer, SUBAT: An

assessment of sustainable battery technology, Journal of Power Sources. 162 (2006) 913–919.

Pillai, I.R., Banerjee, R., ―Renewable energy in India: Status and potential,‖ Energy, (34)8, 970-980, May 2009.

Pillai, I.R., Banerjee, R., ―Methodology for estimation of potential for solar water heating in a target area,‖ Solar Energy, (81)2, 162-172, February 2007

//www.iiasa.ac.at GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge

University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for

Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Chapter 1 - Energy Primer pp. 99-150,

www.eia.doe.gov Wood and Long,2000

59Thank [email protected]