17
Beacon Securities Ltd.| 66 Wellington Street West Suite 4050, Toronto, Ontario, M5K 1H1 |416.643.3830 |www.beaconsecurities.ca Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd. (TWM-V) A Rising Tide of Opportunities August 10, 2015 Michael Mills, CFA (902) 425-8897 [email protected] Ted Bobier - Associate (403) 910-5382 We are initiating coverage of Tidewater with a BUY rating and 12-month price target of $2.40. Backed by a proven management team, TWM is at the very early stages of building a large midstream and infrastructure firm. Having recently completed its first acquisition, a 63% working interest in a gas processing facility for $180 million, we expect TWM to grow rapidly over the next couple of years. The depressed O&G market is providing abundant M&A opportunities and we expect management to move quickly to acquire infrastructure assets. This could include 1-2 moves before year-end. We think TWM could acquire pipeline and storage assets and ultimately develop a marine export terminal. Marketing of NGLs, specifically propane, is a focus at TWM, as western Canadian producers are losing money due to a lack of available conduits. TWM currently controls 15 railcars and we expect this number to grow substantially in the coming months. We will not see any meaningful financial results until Q3 is reported in November, however the gas processing facility is currently generating roughly $28 million in annual EBITDA running at ~75% capacity. Plant cash flow is supported by roughly 70% take-or-pay contracts. For now, investors are relying heavily on the strength of the management team and Board to create value. We think this is a team worth betting on and that they are setting the stage to build a multi-billion dollar enterprise. Trading at 8.7x our F2016 EBITDA estimate, we believe there is attractive upside in this name, supported by a dividend yield of 2.3%. Our $2.40 target based on 12x F2016 EBITDA (vs. comps at 14.3x 2015 and 12.4x 2016). $2.40 $1.75 $2.40 39% YE: Dec 31 FY15E FY16E Revenue ($MM) $17.5 $54.5 EBITDA ($MM) $11.3 $32.6 FD EPS $0.03 $0.10 FY15E FY16E EV/Sales nmf 5.2x EV/EBITDA nmf 8.7x P/E nmf 17.3x Dividend/share $0.04 Dividend Yield 2.3% Shares Outstanding FD 175.8 Market Cap (C$) FD $307.7 Net Cash $25.0 Enterprise Value $282.7 Potential Return (incl dividend) Initiating Coverage BUY Previous Close 12-month Target Price Stock Performance Stock Data (MM) About the Company Tidewater was formed in 2015 to pursue the purchase, sale, and transportation of NGLs and related infrastructure throughout North America and export to ov erseas markets. www.tidewatermidstream.com 52 Week Price Range $1.51-$2.13 Estimates All prices in C$ unless otherwise stated Valuation May Jun Jul $1.50 $1.60 $1.70 $1.80 $1.90 $2.00 $2.10 $2.20 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 Volume (Millions) Price (CAD)

Tidewater Midstream and - Beacon Securities€¦ · 10/08/2015  · $1.80 $1.90 $2.00 $2.10 $2.20 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 Volume (Millions) Price (CAD) August

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    4

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Tidewater Midstream and - Beacon Securities€¦ · 10/08/2015  · $1.80 $1.90 $2.00 $2.10 $2.20 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 Volume (Millions) Price (CAD) August

Beacon Securities Ltd.| 66 Wellington Street West Suite 4050, Toronto, Ontario, M5K 1H1 |416.643.3830 |www.beaconsecurities.ca

Tidewater Midstream and

Infrastructure Ltd. (TWM-V)

A Rising Tide of Opportunities

August 10, 2015

Michael Mills, CFA (902) 425-8897

[email protected]

Ted Bobier - Associate (403) 910-5382

We are initiating coverage of Tidewater with a BUY

rating and 12-month price target of $2.40. Backed by a

proven management team, TWM is at the very early

stages of building a large midstream and infrastructure

firm. Having recently completed its first acquisition, a

63% working interest in a gas processing facility for $180

million, we expect TWM to grow rapidly over the next

couple of years. The depressed O&G market is

providing abundant M&A opportunities and we expect

management to move quickly to acquire infrastructure

assets. This could include 1-2 moves before year-end.

We think TWM could acquire pipeline and storage

assets and ultimately develop a marine export terminal.

Marketing of NGLs, specifically propane, is a focus at

TWM, as western Canadian producers are losing money

due to a lack of available conduits. TWM currently

controls 15 railcars and we expect this number to grow

substantially in the coming months.

We will not see any meaningful financial results until Q3

is reported in November, however the gas processing

facility is currently generating roughly $28 million in

annual EBITDA running at ~75% capacity. Plant cash

flow is supported by roughly 70% take-or-pay contracts.

For now, investors are relying heavily on the strength of

the management team and Board to create value. We

think this is a team worth betting on and that they are

setting the stage to build a multi-billion dollar enterprise.

Trading at 8.7x our F2016 EBITDA estimate, we believe

there is attractive upside in this name, supported by a

dividend yield of 2.3%. Our $2.40 target based on 12x

F2016 EBITDA (vs. comps at 14.3x 2015 and 12.4x 2016).

$2.40$1.75

$2.40

39%

YE: Dec 31 FY15E FY16E

Revenue ($MM) $17.5 $54.5

EBITDA ($MM) $11.3 $32.6

FD EPS $0.03 $0.10

FY15E FY16E

EV/Sales nmf 5.2x

EV/EBITDA nmf 8.7x

P/E nmf 17.3x

Div idend/share $0.04

Div idend Yield 2.3%

Shares Outstanding

FD 175.8

Market Cap (C$)

FD $307.7

Net Cash $25.0

Enterprise Value $282.7

Potential Return (incl div idend)

Initiating Coverage

BUYPrev ious Close

12-month Target Price

Stock Performance

Stock Data (MM)

About the Company

Tidewater was formed in 2015 to pursue the purchase, sale,

and transportation of NGLs and related infrastructure

throughout North America and export to ov erseas markets.

www.tidewatermidstream.com

52 Week Price Range $1.51-$2.13

Estimates

All prices in C$ unless otherwise stated

Valuation

May Jun Jul

$1.50

$1.60

$1.70

$1.80

$1.90

$2.00

$2.10

$2.20

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5Volume (Millions) Price (CAD)

Page 2: Tidewater Midstream and - Beacon Securities€¦ · 10/08/2015  · $1.80 $1.90 $2.00 $2.10 $2.20 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 Volume (Millions) Price (CAD) August

August 10, 2015 Page | 2 Michael Mills | 902.425.8897 | [email protected]

Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd.

Company Overview Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure (TWM-V) is a newly created,

Calgary-based, junior midstream infrastructure player that pursues the

purchasing, selling and transportation of natural gas liquids (NGLs). The

company’s immediate focus is in North America, with the longer-term

potential for export to overseas markets where NGLs receive more

attractive pricing (hence the name Tidewater). The strategy is to acquire

and develop oil and gas infrastructure such as gas plants, pipelines,

railcars, trucks, export terminals and storage facilities to offer a full service

and a vertically integrated value chain that will be more efficient to their

clients and allow for better NGL pricing in the local market.

Tidewater’s physical assets today consist of:

Five owned railcars and 10 leased railcars, each with 33,690 US gallon

carrying capacity of NGLs; and

A 63% operating working interest in a 185 mmcf/d West Pembina deep

cut gas processing facility.

The management team of Tidewater have all shared previous success in

the midstream sector, having built up and sold Predator Midstream Ltd. (a

crude-by-rail business) for $107 million to Secure Energy Services in August

2014. The sale generated shareholder returns in excess of 20x in just 2.5

years. While past success does not guarantee future performance, we

view it as a key attribute when investing in a new start-up. Below we show

the timeline of Predator Midstream from inception to sale. We think TWM

will take a similarly aggressive growth path. In fact, management is

targeting one or two additional acquisitions by year-end 2015.

Exhibit 1: Predator Midstream Ltd. Timeline

Source: Company reports

Page 3: Tidewater Midstream and - Beacon Securities€¦ · 10/08/2015  · $1.80 $1.90 $2.00 $2.10 $2.20 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 Volume (Millions) Price (CAD) August

August 10, 2015 Page | 3 Michael Mills | 902.425.8897 | [email protected]

Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd.

Tidewater Brief History

Tidewater saw its first cash injection in February 2015 when the company

raised $4.4 million from insiders and founders at $0.50/sh. Tidewater then

completed its IPO on April 15, 2015 issuing 3 million shares at $1.00/sh. The

gross proceeds of $3 million were used to acquire five NGL pressure rail

cars for ~$1.1 million and subsequently on April 21st Tidewater announced

they had entered into an agreement with a senior oil and gas producer to

utilize those five railcars. The railcars have a capacity of 33,690 gallons

each and are expected to service multiple locations, including Alberta

and the Dakotas. Tidewater also announced they would be leasing an

additional ten new high pressured railcars with delivery near the end of Q2

2015.

Tidewater’s transformational asset acquisition was announced June 2,

2015 with a deal to acquire a 63% working interest in a 185mmcf/d West

Pembina deep-cut gas processing facility for $180 million (at an attractive

6.5x TTM EBITDA valuation). This facility is believed to be the Brazeau River

Complex, with Apache retaining a 37% working interest. The terms of the

deal were $170 million cash and $10 million in Tidewater shares valued at

$1.35/sh. The cash component was satisfied by a $210 million bought deal

financing – issuing 155.6 million subscription receipts at $1.35/share. The

acquisition has subsequently closed (as of July 21, 2015) and the sub

receipts have been converted to common shares. The shares issued as

part of the financing become free trading on October 17, 2015. There are

now just under 176 million fully diluted shares outstanding at Tidewater.

Post the acquisition, we model a cash balance of approximately $25

million and zero debt. Management is willing to use leverage to about 1x

CF or maybe a bit higher to fund the right acquisition opportunity. Given

the visibility of cash flows, with ~70% of contracts comprised of multi-year

take-or-pay deals, TWM has decided to pay an initial dividend of $0.01 per

share quarterly. Based on the current share price, this translates into a 2.3%

yield. The first dividend will be paid to shareholders of record on

September 30th with an October 30th payment date.

Tidewater Deep Cut Facility and Assets

The West Pembina facility has an operating capacity of 185 mmcf/d with

current throughput of ~140 mmcf/d, making it one of the largest natural

gas processing facilities in the area. The facility has been operating at

near-capacity (~75%) over the past year despite a sharp decline in liquids

pricing and management is targeting ~75% average utilization for the

foreseeable future. Management has disclosed that ~70% of the facility’s

EBITDA (12-month trailing $28 million) is backed by volume based take-or-

pay contracts. The majority of the contracts expire in two years, but can

be extended or rolled over. One large customer is believed to comprise

about 60% of current throughput. There are currently a total of 22

Page 4: Tidewater Midstream and - Beacon Securities€¦ · 10/08/2015  · $1.80 $1.90 $2.00 $2.10 $2.20 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 Volume (Millions) Price (CAD) August

August 10, 2015 Page | 4 Michael Mills | 902.425.8897 | [email protected]

Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd.

producers using the facility. We refer readers to Exhibit 2 below for the

location of the facility and area producers.

Exhibit 2: West Pembina Area Producers

Source: geoScout, company reports, Beacon Securities

Processing Plant Growth Opportunities

While the processing plant is running near functional capacity,

management does believe there are ways to significantly increase EBITDA

with a relatively small investment. The company is looking to invest $10-$15

million over the next year and expects to increase EBITDA by a similar

amount. The investments could include a truck rack that will allow NGLs to

be trucked to the facility, increased condensate recoveries (higher value

product), and/or increased marketing of products through its railcar

operations. At this point we believe management has very clear plans to

enhance the facility, and we model a roughly $5 million increase in plant

EBITDA in 2016.

As noted earlier, Apache retains the other 37% working interest in the

plant. We believe the quickest way to increase EBITDA would be to

acquire that remaining interest. But it will come down to the price and

whether Apache is willing to sell. We believe a starting point to think about

valuation of the Apache interest as $100-$120 million.

Page 5: Tidewater Midstream and - Beacon Securities€¦ · 10/08/2015  · $1.80 $1.90 $2.00 $2.10 $2.20 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 Volume (Millions) Price (CAD) August

August 10, 2015 Page | 5 Michael Mills | 902.425.8897 | [email protected]

Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd.

Competitors

Excluding the vertically integrated O&G companies, or the super majors,

the pure midstream players comparable to Tidewater include:

AltaGas (ALA-T)

Pembina Pipeline (PPL-T)

Keyera (KEY-T)

Inter Pipeline (IPL-T)

Gibson Energy (GEI-T)

Veresen (VSN-T)

Keyera is the most direct competitor, operating eight processing facilities

in the general region of TWM’s plant. The above are significantly larger

companies with many different business segments including energy

transportation, storage and marketing, but all within the midstream

industry. In addition, pipeline companies such as Enbridge (ENB-T) and

TransCanada (TRP-T) could eventually become competitors. Tidewater

currently is a small fish swimming in a big stream with a market cap of

~$300 million versus the industry average of ~$6.5 billion (see comp table in

valuation section of this report).

Customers

Location, location, location! Hunters hunt where there is game and

midstream companies operate where there are production volumes.

Tidewater’s deep cut gas processing facility is surrounded by prolific multi-

zone producing areas of the Deep Basin. Historical area gas production

stemmed from the Cardium but year over year growth of ~25% is being

attributed to the Spirit River and the Lower Mannville plays. We refer the

reader to Exhibit 3 below which highlights surrounding area production by

formation and the largest producers in the area.

Exhibit 3: Area Production Profile by Formation

Page 6: Tidewater Midstream and - Beacon Securities€¦ · 10/08/2015  · $1.80 $1.90 $2.00 $2.10 $2.20 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 Volume (Millions) Price (CAD) August

August 10, 2015 Page | 6 Michael Mills | 902.425.8897 | [email protected]

Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd.

Source: geoScout, Beacon Securities

NGL Overview Natural gas liquids (NGLs) are the heavier hydrocarbons which are

dissolved in natural gas in a reservoir and produced with the methane gas

stream which yield: ethane (C2), propane (C3), butane (C4), and

condensate (C5+).

Exhibit 4: NGLs

Source: Canadian Energy Research Institite (CERI)

Once the hydrocarbons are brought to surface, the heavier (C5+)

hydrocarbons condense to their liquid state at atmospheric pressure, while

the lighter components remain in their gaseous state and require

separation in a processing plant.

Page 7: Tidewater Midstream and - Beacon Securities€¦ · 10/08/2015  · $1.80 $1.90 $2.00 $2.10 $2.20 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 Volume (Millions) Price (CAD) August

August 10, 2015 Page | 7 Michael Mills | 902.425.8897 | [email protected]

Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd.

Exhibit 5: NGL End Uses

Source: CERI

Liquefied petroleum gases (LPGs) refer to propane, butane and a

combination of both, but is also the term used for NGLs produced by

refineries. Natural gas yields the highest NGL content compared to crude

oil where the NGL’s are extracted from crude during the refining process

and are mainly made up of propane and butane.

NGL Marketing

The four main NGL processing hubs in North America are located in Fort

Saskatchewan, Alberta; Sarnia, Ontario; Conway, Kansas; and Mont

Belvieu, Texas. These locations all have substantial underground storage

and are connected to NGL supply as well as to transmission and

distribution pipeline systems to bring the product to market. Mont Belvieu is

the largest processing and trading hub given its integration of processing,

refining, petrochemicals and port facilities (we note Canada currently

does not have port facilities to export overseas and relies on rail/pipelines

to the US for oversea exports). Mont Belvieu is typically the price setter for

NGLs in North America. Mont Belvieu’s strategic location on the Gulf Coast

allows access to supplies from Europe, Africa, and the Middle East and is

also tied to the Houston ship channel through dedicated pipelines for LPG

(main NGL export) export overseas where propane, among other NGLs

receive more attractive pricing. Petrochemical and export demand are

the main factors driving Mont Belvieu NGL prices. It is also pertinent to note

that Asia has overtaken North America as the largest NGL market due to

strong demand for propane and butane for residential heating, most

notably in China.

Page 8: Tidewater Midstream and - Beacon Securities€¦ · 10/08/2015  · $1.80 $1.90 $2.00 $2.10 $2.20 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 Volume (Millions) Price (CAD) August

August 10, 2015 Page | 8 Michael Mills | 902.425.8897 | [email protected]

Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd.

Exhibit 6: Main North American NGL Processing Hubs

Source: Keyera Corp. report

We believe that Tidewater is going to grow rapidly on the marketing side

of NGLs over the next few years. The beginning stage of this has begun

with the 15 railcars being operated at present. We believe the rail

transportation division could grow substantially, to over 500 cars, in the

next couple of years. In addition to rail, we expect TWM to look to add

trucking capacity and pipeline ownership. Eventually, we believe an LPG

marine export facility in British Columbia could be an excellent fit. There is

a reason for naming the company Tidewater! We note that prior to being

sold, Predator Midstream was developing a marine export facility in New

Brunswick.

Exhibit 7: Vertical Integration Strategy

Source: Company presentation

Page 9: Tidewater Midstream and - Beacon Securities€¦ · 10/08/2015  · $1.80 $1.90 $2.00 $2.10 $2.20 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 Volume (Millions) Price (CAD) August

August 10, 2015 Page | 9 Michael Mills | 902.425.8897 | [email protected]

Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd.

NGL Pricing

NGL prices are not as transparent as natural gas or crude oil prices. Prices

for NGLs are embedded between natural gas - the typical benchmark for

the price floor, and crude oil and refined petrol products - typical

benchmark for the price ceiling. If the price of a liquid is equal to or lower

than natural gas, it becomes uneconomic to extract but may still have to

be removed to meet pipeline specifications for transport. The 10-year

average CAD price/bbl for ethane, propane, and butane were $13.16,

$32.45, and $43.14 and compared to $4.84, $8.98, and $11.74,

respectively, as of late last week. Transportation and tolling costs to move

propane to southern markets are typically in the $10-$15/bbl range.

Exhibit 8: 10-Year NGL Prices

Source: Bloomberg, Beacon Securities Ltd

As the exhibit below shows, NGL storage levels in the US are at very high

levels. This has translated into low selling prices across North America.

Exhibit 9: Monthly US NGL Storage as of May 2015

Source: Bloomberg, Beacon Securities Ltd.

Page 10: Tidewater Midstream and - Beacon Securities€¦ · 10/08/2015  · $1.80 $1.90 $2.00 $2.10 $2.20 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 Volume (Millions) Price (CAD) August

August 10, 2015 Page | 10 Michael Mills | 902.425.8897 | [email protected]

Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd.

The Edmonton Propane Opportunity

The fracking boom over the past few years has brought an abundance of

NGLs to market. There are concerns there may not be enough storage

facilities to hold the liquids. This has led to Edmonton propane prices falling

through the floor (see exhibit 10, below). Producers are having to pay to

remove the gas. For the past couple of months, average propane prices

were negative in Edmonton. We do not expect propane prices to

rebound in North America anytime soon due to the current supply glut

and the current fraclog - wells that have been drilled but are waiting for

energy prices to rise before recoveries are made.

Other factors impacting the Alberta market include:

March 2014, the Kinder Morgan Cochin pipeline which runs from

Edmonton to Windsor, was reversed to ship condensate from Illinois to

Edmonton. This has left Canadian propane somewhat stranded. There are

only a couple of pipelines from which to transport propane out of western

Canada.

A mild 2014/2015 winter reduced demand for propane heating and left

North America with a massive propane glut this summer. The US, with

much larger NGL infrastructure, has access to export markets leaving

Edmonton propane, again, stranded with producers not being able to sell

at a profit.

Clearly, finding a way to export propane out of Edmonton to access

higher US pricing is a top priority for producers and we think it is an area

that TWM can exploit.

Exhibit 10: Historical North American Propane Prices

Source: Bloomberg, Beacon Securities Ltd

Page 11: Tidewater Midstream and - Beacon Securities€¦ · 10/08/2015  · $1.80 $1.90 $2.00 $2.10 $2.20 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 Volume (Millions) Price (CAD) August

August 10, 2015 Page | 11 Michael Mills | 902.425.8897 | [email protected]

Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd.

Forecast Assumptions

Our forecast relies heavily on the throughput of the gas processing plant.

We will not see first results of these operations until Q3 2015 (mid-

November). With management guiding for utilization to remain steady

around 75% and back-stopped by take-or-pay contracts, we feel

comfortable that the plant can generate at a minimum $28 million of

EBITDA in 2016. This gets enhanced by planned plant upgrades and the

opportunity to begin to market propane using the railcars (expected to

grow). This leads us to a full year EBITDA forecast of $32.6 million in F2016.

With management publicly stating that they are seeking to close one or

two acquisitions before the end of 2015, forecasts will be evolving. We

expect that by this time next year, we will be modeling a much larger

company. We believe management can prudently use the current

industry downturn to acquire infrastructure assets at attractive valuations.

We believe the 6.5x EBITDA multiple paid for the gas processing plant is a

perfect example of how this management team can surface value from

assets that are being shopped to a limited number of capitalized buyers.

Management has effectively used the capital markets to fund its first

acquisition and we would expect further equity raises as asset acquisition

opportunities arise. At the same time, we do expect some leverage to be

layered into the capital structure as these are long-life, cash flowing assets.

We believe the initial dividend of $0.01 per share quarterly, yielding 2.3%,

will entice investors who frequently rely on the income streams generated

from this sector. This level of payout equates to roughly $7 million per

annum, or 25% of the processing plant’s base EBITDA. With relatively low

maintenance capex requirements, we view this dividend payout level as

very comfortable. We are not modeling a dividend increase in the near-

term as we expect management to focus on growth opportunities with

surplus cash flow.

Page 12: Tidewater Midstream and - Beacon Securities€¦ · 10/08/2015  · $1.80 $1.90 $2.00 $2.10 $2.20 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 Volume (Millions) Price (CAD) August

August 10, 2015 Page | 12 Michael Mills | 902.425.8897 | [email protected]

Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd.

Valuation and Recommendation

The established, large cap midstream players are trading in a range of

13x-18x F2015 EBITDA. We expect TWM to trade at a discount to the senior

midstream peers given its size, liquidity, and single asset base. Therefore,

we are using a 12x multiple on 2016 EBITDA to reach our 12-month price

target of $2.40. This provides 37% upside from the current level plus a 2.3%

dividend yield.

At this point, Tidewater is the only unlevered midstream company, with a

cash balance. This leaves it in a strong position to capitalize on future

acquisitions accretive to the bottom line. We note that Gibson Energy

trades at a lower multiple than peers, but we believe this reflects the more

cyclical business segments the company is involved in.

Exhibit 11: Midstream Comparables

Last

Price

Enterprise

Value

(Millions)

Market

Cap

(Millions)

Dividend

Yield2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E

Tidewater Midstream & Infrastructure Ltd. TWM-CA $1.75 $283 $308 2.3% $11.3 $32.6 $0.03 $0.10 nmf 8.7x nmf 17.3x

AltaGas Ltd. ALA-CA $33.85 $8,354 $4,548 5.2% $611 $683 $1.19 $1.45 13.7x 12.2x 28.4x 23.3x

Gibson Energy Inc. GEI-CA $18.09 $3,315 $2,260 7.1% $395 $450 $0.36 $0.67 8.4x 7.4x 50.6x 27.1x

Inter Pipeline Ltd. IPL-CA $27.09 $14,184 $9,045 5.4% $943 $1,013 $1.33 $1.46 15.0x 14.0x 20.4x 18.6x

Keyera Corp. KEY-CA $43.57 $8,832 $7,363 3.2% $666 $701 $1.62 $1.81 13.3x 12.6x 26.9x 24.1x

Pembina Pipeline Corporation PPL-CA $36.39 $16,897 $12,297 4.9% $967 $1,221 $1.44 $1.69 17.5x 13.8x 25.3x 21.5x

Veresen Inc. VSN-CA $12.70 $5,302 $3,633 7.9% $294 $365 $0.29 $0.42 18.0x 14.5x 43.1x 30.5x

Average 5.6% 14.3x 12.4x 32.4x 24.2x

14.4x 13.2x 27.6x 23.7xPeer Median

Company

Peer Average

Midstream Comparables

EBITDA EPS EV/EBITDA Price/Earnings

*Note TWM 2015 financials include gas plant results only as of July 21, 2015

Source: Beacon Securities, FactSet

Back-stopping our valuation is a DCF scenario analysis. Using conservative

cash flow growth assumptions (4% annually to 2020), we feel comfortable

with our initial price target. We note a scheduled plant turnaround in 2018

will impact CF in that period. We expect momentum to build in the stock

as investors get comfortable with the asset base, the ability to pay a

consistent dividend, and ability to transact on accretive acquisitions. We

note that the four-month hold paper comes off on October 17th, and

liquidity is expected to be relatively minimal between now and then.

Exhibit 12: DCF Sensitivity

3 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%

8.0% 2.85$ 3.04$ 3.26$ 3.53$

9.0% 2.47$ 2.60$ 2.76$ 2.94$

10.0% 2.17$ 2.27$ 2.39$ 2.52$

11.0% 1.94$ 2.02$ 2.10$ 2.20$ Dis

count R

ate

Terminal Grow th Rate

Source: Beacon Securities

Page 13: Tidewater Midstream and - Beacon Securities€¦ · 10/08/2015  · $1.80 $1.90 $2.00 $2.10 $2.20 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 Volume (Millions) Price (CAD) August

August 10, 2015 Page | 13 Michael Mills | 902.425.8897 | [email protected]

Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd.

Key Risks Reliance on single primary asset (for now) - Tidewater’s results will be

largely based on the volumes being processed at the gas plant. Any

interruption or change in volume will adversely impact financial results.

While there is a diverse customer group (22 clients), there is one large

customer that is believed to account for ~60% of volumes. Many of the

take-or-pay contracts expire in two years (2017) and keeping/replacing

these customers will be vital.

Commodity Prices - Oil and gas prices remain volatile. Demand for

processing and marketing of NGLs will be impacted by macro pricing

movements.

Transporting dangerous goods and materials - Shipping accidents

involving hazardous materials could result in adverse financial losses

and/or personal injury/fatalities which would materially affect the

Company.

Acquisitive Growth - Tidewater intends to grow rapidly and the integration

of new operations is a risk. In addition, growth will likely require further

equity and/or debt placements.

Foreign Exchange - Tidewater expects to conduct operations in Canada

and the U.S. exposing itself to fluctuations in currencies. Exchange rate

changes may adversely affect the company’s profitability.

Regulatory - Tidewater could be exposed to changes in regulation that

could negatively impact operations.

Page 14: Tidewater Midstream and - Beacon Securities€¦ · 10/08/2015  · $1.80 $1.90 $2.00 $2.10 $2.20 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 Volume (Millions) Price (CAD) August

August 10, 2015 Page | 14 Michael Mills | 902.425.8897 | [email protected]

Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd.

Appendix

Tidewater

CAD

Dec YE YE 2015E YE 2016E

Statement of Income

Revenue 17,488 54,508

Operating costs 5,029 18,937

Gross Profit 12,459 35,570

Gross margin 71.2% 65.3%

General and administrative 1,200 3,000

Share-based compensation 100 200

Depreciation 3,000 8,000

Total expenses 4,300 11,200

EBITDA 11,259 32,570

EBITDA margin 64.4% 59.8%

Earnings (loss) before income taxes 8,159 24,370

Total Tax 2,203 6,580

Tax rate 27.0% 27.0%

Net income 5,956 17,790

Shares Outsdanding FD 175,844 176,019

EPS - FD 0.03 0.10

Page 15: Tidewater Midstream and - Beacon Securities€¦ · 10/08/2015  · $1.80 $1.90 $2.00 $2.10 $2.20 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 Volume (Millions) Price (CAD) August

August 10, 2015 Page | 15 Michael Mills | 902.425.8897 | [email protected]

Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd.

Management and Directors

Joel MacLeod, President, CEO and Chairman: Mr. Macleod has 15+ years

of experience in the oil and gas industry and has been in an executive or

director role with over seven oil and gas companies. Mr. Macleod has

been the CEO of three oil and gas companies and has been heavily

involved in the Midstream industry for the past 10 years, most recently

selling Predator Midstream Ltd. for $107 million.

Toby McKenna, VP, Business Development and Commercial: Mr. McKenna

most recently served as VP, Business Development for Predator Oil Ltd. He

brings over 20 years of energy expertise ranging from merchant trading

and origination to storage of natural gas and development of structured

financial products. He also has an extensive and a proven record in

financial hedging and trading strategies and value added processes in

the energy supply chain.

Joel Vorra, CFO: Mr. Vorra is currently CFO of Predator Oil Ltd. and was

Controller of Predator Midstream up until its sale in August 2014. Mr. Vorra’s

past experience involved advising oil and gas clients on various financial

and accounting issues and has a proven track record in company start-

ups mainly in the midstream space and was heavily involved in the sales of

Predator Midstream Ltd.

Jarvis Williams, VP, Logistics and Midstream Operations: Mr. Williams is

currently a VP of Predator Oil Ltd. and was VP of Midstream Operations

and Logistics of Predator Midstream Ltd., up until its sale. Before joining

Predator, Mr. Williams worked for SkyWest Energy, PrimeWest Energy and

Taqa North. Mr. Williams has been heavily involved in the midstream start

up and has prior experience with an energy services trucking start up.

Jeff Ketch, VP, Field Operations: Mr. Ketch currently serves as VP,

Operations for Predator Oil Ltd. Previously he was VP, Operations for

Predator Midstream Ltd. and has held management positions with Equal

Energy and brings over 20 years of leadership skills to operations.

Gregory Macdonald, VP Engineering: Mr. Macdonald is currently President

and COO for Predator Oil Ltd. and previously was VP, Engineering for

Predator Midstream Ltd. Mr. Macdonald brings over 15 years of energy

experience ranging from field operations to executive level responsibilities

in both the upstream and midstream space.

Page 16: Tidewater Midstream and - Beacon Securities€¦ · 10/08/2015  · $1.80 $1.90 $2.00 $2.10 $2.20 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 Volume (Millions) Price (CAD) August

August 10, 2015 Page | 16 Michael Mills | 902.425.8897 | [email protected]

Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd.

Board of Directors – Led by Mr. MacLeod, Chairman

Doug Fraser, Director: Mr. Fraser brings both international and North

American oil and gas experience to Tidewater. He was most recently the

CFO at TAQA based in Abu Dhabi. Mr. Fraser was the CFO of PrimeWest

Energy Trust at the time of the acquisition by TAQA for $5 billion. Previous

roles include CFO of Husky Energy and senior roles at Petro-Canada and

Imperial Oil.

Trevor Wong-Chor, Director: Mr. Wong-Chor is a solicitor with Davis LLP

where he is currently a Partner and member of the firm’s executive

committee. Formerly he was a Partner and Associate at Borden Ladner

Gervais LLP.

Stephen Holyoake, Director: Mr. Holyoake is currently VP, Drilling and

Completions for Tangle Energy Creek Ltd. Formerly, Mr. Holyoake was VP,

Operations for SkyWest Energy and Drilling and Completions Managers at

Berens Energy.

Page 17: Tidewater Midstream and - Beacon Securities€¦ · 10/08/2015  · $1.80 $1.90 $2.00 $2.10 $2.20 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 Volume (Millions) Price (CAD) August

Beacon Securities Ltd.| 66 Wellington Street West Suite 4050, Toronto, Ontario, M5K 1H1 |416.643.3830 |www.beaconsecurities.ca

Disclosure Requirements

Does Beacon, or its affiliates or analysts collectively, beneficially own 1% or more of any class of the issuer's equity securities? Yes No

Does the analyst who prepared this research report have a position, either long or short, in any of the issuer’s securities? Yes No

Does Beacon Securities beneficially own more than 1% of equity securities of the issuer? Yes No

Has any director, partner, or officer of Beacon Securities, or the analyst involved in the preparation of the research report, received remuneration for

any services provided to the securities issuer during the preceding 12 months?

Yes No

Has Beacon Securities performed investment banking services in the past 12 months and received compensation for investment banking services for

this issuer in the past 12 months? Yes No

Was the analyst who prepared this research report compensated from revenues generated solely by the Beacon Securities Investment Banking

Department? Yes No

Does any director, officer, or employee of Beacon Securities serve as a director, officer, or in any advisory capacity to the issuer? Yes No

Are there any material conflicts of interest with Beacon Securities or the analyst who prepared the report and the issuer? Yes No

Is Beacon Securities a market maker in the equity of the issuer? Yes No

Has the analyst visited the head office of the issuer and viewed its operations in a limited context? Yes No

Did the issuer pay for or reimburse the analyst for the travel expenses? Yes No

All information contained herein has been collected and compiled by Beacon Securities Limited, an independently owned and operated member of

the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC). All facts and statistical data have been obtained or ascertained from sources,

which we believe to be reliable, but are not warranted as accurate or complete.

All projections and estimates are the expressed opinion of Beacon Securities Limited, and are subject to change without notice. Beacon Securities

Limited takes no responsibility for any errors or omissions contained herein, and accepts no legal responsibility from any losses resulting from investment

decisions based on the content of this report.

This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities discussed herein. Based on

their volatility, income structure, or eligibility for sale, the securities mentioned herein may not be suitable or available for all investors in all countries.

As at July 31, 2015 #Stocks Distribution

Buy 53 71% Buy Total 12-month return expected to be > 15%

Speculative Buy 15 20% Speculative Buy Potential 12-month return is high (>15%) but given elevated risk, investment could result in a material loss

Hold 2 3% Hold Total 12-month return is expected to be between 0% and 15%

Sell 0 0% Sell Total 12-month return is expected to be negative

Under Review 5 7% Under Review Currently undergoing a change of analyst coverage

Total 75 100%

Dissemination

Beacon Securities distributes its research products simultaneously, via email, to its authorized client base. All research is then available on

www.beaconsecurities.ca via login and password.

Analyst Certification

The Beacon Securities Analyst named on the report hereby certifies that the recommendations and/or opinions expressed herein accurately

reflect such research analyst’s personal views about the company and securities that are the subject of the report; or any other companies

mentioned in the report that are also covered by the named analyst. In addition, no part of the research analyst’s compensation is, or will

be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by such research analyst in this report.