Tidal Energy, Needs and Technology

Outline of Talk

• Motivation– Why don’t we just use ________________

(fill in the blank)– The current state of the industry

• John Ferland “P-guy” Ocean Renewable Power Company

• There is stuff in the water

– Other developers, technology and barrier issues

Global ClimateAnthropogenic CO2

And the Role of Tidal and Alternative Energy

Michael “Mick” Peterson, Ph.D.UMaine Numbers and thinking by

Anna DemeoUMaine & College of the Atlantic

A “Maine-Centric” Perspective

Can’t we just use wind, solar, biomass, off-shore wind, nuclear, geothermal

World Situation….

• “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal “ 1

• “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic (human) greenhouse gas concentrations.” 1

1 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Sciences Basis, IPCC, <http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html>. Retrieved on 01-01-2007

Carbon Footprints….• The average Portland resident

emitted 0.908 tons of CO2 from residential fuels – highest in the country and 1.443 tons of CO2 from transportation

• The average Los Angeles resident emitted 0.391 tons of CO2 from residential energy use and 1.022 tons of CO2 from transportation

So who has a problem! Portland Maine has a 66% higher per capita footprint

Climate Change….

What if I don’t Care About Climate Change?

• The first industry auction of carbon dioxide allowances already took place in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative

• It's the first mandatory carbon regulatory venture in the United States.

• Carbon in the northeast now has a value

AND• Oil is expensive and comes from people who are

not necessarily friendly

US and Maine Situation

• 40.5 percent of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the United States result from combustion of fossil fuels for electrical generation 2.

• Maine electricity CURRENTLY averages 13.18 cents per kilowatt hour, >39% higher than the average for the U. S.3

• Over 80% of Maine homes heat with fuel oil, the highest in the nation

•[2] Energy Information Administration, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1998, Chapter 2, "Carbon Dioxide Emissions," DOE/EIA-0573(98) (Washington, DC, October 1999).[3] Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly with data for September 2007http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/table5_6_a.html retrieved 12-31-07

ME Sources of Residential Heathttp://tonto.eia.doe.gov/state/state_energy_profiles.cfm?sid=ME

Natural Gas

Fuel Oil

Electricity

Propane

Wood/Other

Fuel Oil = 80%

Natural Gas = 4%

Propane = 5%

Electricity = 5%

Wood/other = 6%

The rest of the Northeast is less extreme, trends exist.

Energy Use for Residential Home Heating

0

1E+13

2E+13

3E+13

4E+13

5E+13

6E+13

7E+13

8E+13

9E+13

1E+14

Fuel Oil Natural Gas Propane Wood (soft) Electricity

Fuel Type

BT

U

Heating Oil Point of Origin

70%

17%

7%6%

Canada

Venezuela

Virgin Islands

Russia,Korea,SaudiArabia

Mostly from friendly places though!

Fuel Type Quantity used Total BTU Total CO2

(million lbs)

Heating Oil 15,610 thousand Barrels

(8 supertankers)

9.31 x 10^13 15024

Natural Gas 4965 million ft3 4.96 x 10^12 580.7

Propane 2109 Thousand Barrels

8.15 x 10^13 1133

Electricity 1.39 x 10^9 kWh 4.75x 10^12 831.5

Wood 155,000 Chords 2.33 x 10^13 61*

Energy Use: Heating Fuel

*Wood is often considered zero emissions

**Source: Energy Information Administration: www.eia.doe.gov

0.908 tons of CO2 for each Maine Resident

Let’s Convert to Electric HeatCurrent Situation:

Convert to heat pump w/ COP = 3

Quantity: 15,610 thousand barrels of Oil for residential heating

Cost: $4.2/gal = $2.75 billion

CO2 Emissions: 14,675 million lbs

Quantity: 9309 million kWh for equivalent of Oil for residential heating

Cost: $.1636/kWh = $1.52 billion

CO2 Emissions: 10,649.5 million lbs *

(1.144 lbs CO2/kWh) *figures based on National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory annual report

Reduce Heating CO2 by 27% and price volatility… a lot of power

Cost of Heat Pumps• 425,000 households convert from fuel oil to heat

pumps at $3500 (cost may vary)• One Time Cost:

$1.5 Billion to convert to heat pumps• Yearly Fuel Savings:

$4580/year/house … $1.94 Billion/year.

• 27% reduction in CO2 from heating

Is this is too good to be true!! What is the catch?

Result: Maine 40% higher not 132% higher than LA in residential CO2

Convert residential oil heat to electric heat with heat pump requires an additional 9.5 million kWh of annual electricity generation: What are the options? This is a lot of electricityIf we do not consider generation demand will drive up costs

Power Plant Amount (MWh)Petroleum Fired 25,000Natural Gas Fired 602,000Coal Fired 44,000Hydroelectric 319,000Other Renewables 319,000

Current Electricity Generation:

The Catch! Electric Power for Supply

• We need to replace the oil with electricity– 9.5 million kWh of annual electricity– A 5 month heating season– More than 2.5 GWatts of Generating Capacity

• Options– Nuclear– Wind– Water Power

Everything else is in short supply and/or has a big carbon footprint!

Carbon has a $$$ value now!

The Nuclear Option

• We need >2.5 GWatts Capacity– This is more than 4 Vermont Yankee size plants

(93% capacity factor!)– One 1.350GW nuclear reactor costs $6 - 9 Billion or

$4500 - $6500 / kW (FLP and Review) – Your cost $11-16 Billion (plus heat pumps)

• CO2 from nuclear* – 1,354 million lbs of CO2 vs. Oil at 10,649 million lbs– Nuclear plants emit almost no CO2 at point of generation but contribute from

uranium preparation for the reactor including: mining, milling the ore, fuel enrichment and fuel-rod fabrication.

Greenpeace -- (.377 lbs CO2/kWh) Nuclear Industry 606 million lbs (.065 lbs CO2/kWh)August 2008 issue of the peer-reviewed journal Energy Policy : http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2008/07/15/nuclear-power-a-false-solution-climate-change.html

Off-Shore Wind

• Costs– Infrastructure needs, 60 miles off-shore cabling & 2.5

GWatt Capacity, $1.5 billion in cabling- Estimated installed Cost $1500-2500 kW,

Real life: Arklow, GE Project in Ireland, $3600 kW*- Result: (45% Capacity) $3800 - $9000 kW (Ocean

energy conference number $8000 kW)- Capital Costs -- $9-22 Billion

- CO2 from off-shore wind* – More than a 95% reduction in CO2 vs. Oil – Wind plants emit no CO2 at point of generation but contribute from manufacturing,

construction, maintenance and servicing costs.

*50 million £ for 25 MWatts 10 km off-shore

We need an economic rescue

$9-22 Billion in Investment

This will solve the Maine CO2 ProblemAnd our economic exposure

The capital required for a simple fix does not existWe also need a fast solution even if it is partial

No Single Solution for Any of Us

• Diversify our energy portfolio– Like a GOOD investor – Costing of options is CO2 plus capital

• Nothing is too small to matter if it is robust– Can afford the capital costs– Can we make the system work

• Our options– Tidal– Biomass– Terrestrial wind

Biomass/Heat Pump

• Home heating solution– Heat pump for the warmer days– Pellet stove for the cold days

• Perfect solution– Increased COP for heat pump,

it is working when efficient– Pellet stove to keep up on the cold days, and uses

our limited supply of wood when needed– Even in Maine need pellet stove 14 days per year

• Well suited to “spot heating”• Results:

lower carbon footprint, reduced capital demand

Terrestrial Wind• New England and Maine have wind resources consistent

with utility-scale production in the following areas:– Ridges and crests of North-

Central and Northwestern Maine– Presque Isle Area– Adirondacks– Etc….

• Nationally some keyresource areas – North Dakota – Underdeveloped grid– Texas – Fast developing– Great Plains

• Will be up to 20% of US power over capacity factor and limits on location

Tidal Energy

• In Maine250-400 MWatts in 1-5 years

• Larger than terrestrial wind

• A unique resource in Maine

• One of the leading efforts in North America– Ocean Renewable

Power Company:– Nascent research effort

with Maine Maritime Academy and UMaine