Thursday File 3-13

8/10/2019 Thursday File 3-13

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Thursday fle 3-13


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Thursday fle 3-131***NEG***................................................................................................................... 6Min wage.................................................................................................................... 7

1nc econ................................................................................................................82nc - short o/v........................................................................................................ 111nc poverty.........................................................................................................12U.......................................................................................................................... 1!

2nc wa""............................................................................................................. 16E#t p$%"ic s$pport.............................................................................................18E#t &%a'a p$shing........................................................................................... 1(E#t G&) s$pport................................................................................................ 2

+op o, tha ocet..................................................................................................21a/t 0 th$'per..................................................................................................22a/t age" th$'per................................................................................................2

i/" section................................................................................................................2!

pc 3ey.................................................................................................................. 26a/t winners win.....................................................................................................28pocaps rea".......................................................................................................... 2(a/t irsch............................................................................................................. 4

5'pacts.................................................................................................................. 4132 econ................................................................................................................ 422nc a/t c$ts %a................................................................................................44a/t h$rts o%s........................................................................................................4!E#t - ata............................................................................................................. 47G"o%a" econ interna"............................................................................................. 48Growth +$rns terror..............................................................................................4(Growth t$rns e'ocracy......................................................................................

05............................................................................................................................11nc wi"" pass...................................................................................................... 22nc its a priority...............................................................................................

5ran........................................................................................................................... !1nc U.............................................................................................................. 62nc &%a'a sti"" ey........................................................................................... 72nc "o%%yists p$shing........................................................................................8

***9 nswers.......................................................................................................... ()0 :ow....................................................................................................................!2 +op o, the ;ocet.............................................................................................. !2


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;oesnt >o"ve Econ.............................................................................................. 6***&:; +U> @5:E>................................................................................................6!+h$rsay @i"e 4-6.................................................................................................... 66Negative.................................................................................................................67

Uraine 5M@ )acage 1N0....................................................................................68Aes )assage..........................................................................................................7

)o" 0ap 3ey.......................................................................................................... 72Uraine- 5M@ e,or' )acage 3ey........................................................................74

@@......................................................................................................................... 76No 5M@ e,or'..................................................................................................... 775M@ e,or' Not ey..............................................................................................81No 5''igration e,or'........................................................................................ 82E#ec$tive )owers >o"ve.......................................................................................8No +rae ;ea"...................................................................................................... 8!No +a# e,or'......................................................................................................86No 5ran >anctions................................................................................................. 87No Mini'$'


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+=


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G&) :ose / ;e's


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2nc sia )ivot 5'pact ""ie )ro"i,...................................................................2(8+= Not everse 0a$sa"......................................................................................2((1nc EU so,t power.............................................................................................. 42

+erritoria" ;isp$tes............................................................................................. 4+rae 5'pact $ic..........................................................................................461nc


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***NEG***


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Min wage


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1nc econMinimum wage increase will pass now because o whie house ocus and!bama"s #$% &"s 'ey o swinging suppor rom small businesses

!lson 3(1)(1JMini'$' wage ca'paign gains 'a""?$siness Maority po"" ,oc$se on s'a"" %$siness owners %eca$se Ropponents o, 'ini'$' wage increases typica""y

ho" $p s'a"" %$sinesses to $sti,y their positionKR sai &wens o, the Nationa" E'p"oy'ent :aw )roect. R+his po""'aes c"ear that s'a"" %$sinesses are on the sa'e page as the 'erican peop"e onthe %eneFts o, higher wages ,or 'i""ions o, "ow-pai worers .R
http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=MCDhttp://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=wmthttp://money.cnn.com/2014/02/12/news/economy/obama-executive-order-minimum-wage/index.htmlhttp://money.cnn.com/2014/02/12/news/economy/obama-executive-order-minimum-wage/index.htmlhttp://money.cnn.com/2014/02/18/news/economy/minimum-wage-cbo/index.htmlhttp://money.cnn.com/2014/02/18/news/economy/minimum-wage-cbo/index.htmlhttp://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=MCDhttp://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=wmthttp://money.cnn.com/2014/02/12/news/economy/obama-executive-order-minimum-wage/index.htmlhttp://money.cnn.com/2014/02/18/news/economy/minimum-wage-cbo/index.html


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re"ations ,or years. @or billions o people in nuclear-armed counries to e'erge

,ro' this crisis %e"ieving either that the Unite >tates was ini9erent to their we""-%eing or that it ha proFte ,ro' their istress co$" a'age U.>. ,oreign po"icy ,ar'ore severe"y than any 'istae 'ae %y George .position in the Mi"e East as ,a""ing oi" prices re$ce 5ranian inQ$ence an increase the epenence o, the oi" sheio's on U.>. protection. >$ccess in5ra--however "ateK however $neserveK however "i'ite--ha a"reay i'prove the &%a'a a'inistrationOs prospects ,or aressing regiona" crises.

NowK the co""apse in oi" prices has p$t the 5ranian regi'e on the e,ensive. +he ann$a" inQation rate rose a%ove 2( percent "ast >epte'%erK $p ,ro' a%o$t17 percent in 27K accoring to 5ranOs ?an MaraBi. Econo'ists ,orecast that 5ranOs rea" G;) growth wi"" rop 'are"y in the co'ing 'onths asstagnating oi" reven$es an the contin$e g"o%a" econo'ic ownt$rn ,orce the govern'ent to rein in its e#pansionary Fsca" po"icy. "" this has weaeneh'ainea at ho'e an 5ran a%roa. 5ranian oScia"s '$st %a"ance the re"ative 'erits o, s$pport ,or a""ies "ie a'asK eB%o""ahK an >yria againsto'estic neesK whi"e internationa" sanctions an other ip"o'atic stics have %een 'ae 'ore pain,$" an a$i ra%ia an other oi" states have %eco'e 'ore epenent on the Unite >tates ,or protection against 5ranKan they have ,ewer reso$rces to ,$n re"igio$s e#tre'is' as they $se i'inishe oi" reven$es to s$pport %asic o'estic spening an eve"op'entgoa"s. None o, this 'aes the Mi"e East an easy target ,or U.>. ip"o'acyK %$t thans in part to the econo'ic crisisK the inco'ing a'inistration has thechance to try so'e new ieas an to enter negotiations with 5ran Jan >yria ,ro' a position o, enhance strength. Every crisis is i9erentK %$t there see'to %e reasons whyK over ti'eK Fnancia" crises on %a"ance rein,orce rather than $ner'ine the wor" position o, the "eaing capita"ist co$ntries. >incecapita"is' Frst e'erge in ear"y 'oern E$ropeK the a%i"ity to e#p"oit the avantages o, rapi econo'ic eve"op'ent has %een a ey ,actor ininternationa" co'petition. 0o$ntries that can enco$rage--or at "east a""ow an s$stain--the changeK is"ocationK $pheava"K an pain that capita"is' o,teninvo"vesK whi"e proviing their t$'$"t$o$s 'aret societies with appropriate reg$"atory an "ega" ,ra'eworsK grow swi,t"y. +hey pro$ce c$tting-egetechno"ogies that trans"ate into 'i"itary an econo'ic power. +hey are a%"e to invest in e$cationK 'aing their wor,orces ever 'ore pro$ctive. +heytypica""y eve"op "i%era" po"itica" instit$tions an c$"t$ra" nor's that va"$eK or at "east to"erateK issent an that a""ow peop"e o, i9erent po"itica" anre"igio$s viewpoints to co""a%orate on a vast socia" proect o, 'oerniBation--an to 'aintain po"itica" sta%i"ity in the ,ace o, acce"erating socia" anecono'ic change. +he vast pro$ctive capacity o, "eaing capita"ist powers gives the' the a%i"ity to proect inQ$ence aro$n the wor" anK to so'eegreeK to re'ae the wor" to s$it their own interests an pre,erences. +his is what the Unite 3ingo' an the Unite >tates have one in pastcent$riesK an what other capita"ist powers "ie @ranceK Ger'anyK an apan have one to a "esser e#tent. 5n these co$ntriesK the socia" ,orces that s$pportthe iea o, a co'petitive 'aret econo'y within an appropriate"y "i%era" "ega" an po"itica" ,ra'ewor are re"ative"y strong. ?$tK in 'any other co$ntrieswhere capita"is' r$%s peop"e the wrong wayK this is not the case. &n either sie o, the t"anticK ,or e#a'p"eK the :atin wor" is o,ten rawn to anti-capita"ist 'ove'ents an r$"ers on %oth the right an the "e,t. $ssiaK tooK has never rea""y taen to capita"is' an "i%era" society--whether $ring the

ti'e o, the cBarsK the co''issarsK or the post-co" war "eaers who so signa""y ,ai"e to %$i" a sta%"eK open syste' o, "i%era" e'ocratic capita"is' evenas 'any ,or'er panish >$ccessionX the >even Aears


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nc - shor o(The economy is in a special place on he :N&;E"9 E7GE and needs a booso go in he righ direcion

Mead 4 he erminal impac is grea power war growh mainainsgoodwill beween he nuclear saes and abrup decline hisoricallypromps con cards * *


13/361

1nc poeryMinimum wage increase will pass now because o whie house ocus and!bama"s #$% &"s 'ey o swinging suppor rom small businesses

!lson 3(1)(1JMini'$' wage ca'paign gains 'a""?$siness Maority po"" ,oc$se on s'a"" %$siness owners %eca$se Ropponents o, 'ini'$' wage increases typica""y

ho" $p s'a"" %$sinesses to $sti,y their positionKR sai &wens o, the Nationa" E'p"oy'ent :aw )roect. R+his po""'aes c"ear that s'a"" %$sinesses are on the sa'e page as the 'erican peop"e onthe %eneFts o, higher wages ,or 'i""ions o, "ow-pai worers .R
http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=MCDhttp://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=wmthttp://money.cnn.com/2014/02/12/news/economy/obama-executive-order-minimum-wage/index.htmlhttp://money.cnn.com/2014/02/12/news/economy/obama-executive-order-minimum-wage/index.htmlhttp://money.cnn.com/2014/02/18/news/economy/minimum-wage-cbo/index.htmlhttp://money.cnn.com/2014/02/18/news/economy/minimum-wage-cbo/index.htmlhttp://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=MCDhttp://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=wmthttp://money.cnn.com/2014/02/12/news/economy/obama-executive-order-minimum-wage/index.htmlhttp://money.cnn.com/2014/02/18/news/economy/minimum-wage-cbo/index.html


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society. +hese are not acts o, Go. 5 a' contrasting Zstr$ct$ra"[ with Z%ehaviora" vio"enceK[ %y which 5 'ean thenon-nat$ra" eaths an in$ries that are ca$se %y speciFc %ehaviora" actions o, inivi$a"s against inivi$a"sKs$ch as the eaths we attri%$te to ho'icieK s$icieK so"iers in war,areK capita" p$nish'entK an so on. >tr$ct$ra"

vio"ence i9ers ,ro' %ehavior vio"ence in at "east three 'aor respects. *+he "etha" e9ects o, str$ct$ra"vio"enceoperate contin$o$s"yK rather than sporaica""yK whereas'$rersK s$iciesK e#ec$tionsK wars Kan other ,or's o, %ehavior vio"ence occ$r one at a ti'e. *>tr$ct$ra" vio"ence operates 'oreor "ess inepenent"y o, inivi$a" actsX inepenent o, inivi$a"s an gro$ps Jpo"iticiansK po"itica" partiesK voters

whose ecisions 'ay neverthe"ess have "etha" conse$ences ,or others. *>tr$ct$ra" vio"ence is nor'a""y invisi%"eK%eca$se it 'ay appear to have ha other Jnat$ra" or vio"ent ca$ses. 0&N+5NUE;H +he Fning that str$ct$ra"vio"ence ca$ses ,ar 'ore eaths than %ehaviora" vio"ence oes is not "i'ite to this co$ntry. 3oh"er an "cocatte'pte to arrive at the n$'%er o, e#cess eaths ca$se %y socioecono'ic ine$ities on a wor"wie %asis.>ween was their 'oe" o, the nation that ha co'e c"osest to e"i'inating str$ct$ra" vio"ence. 5t ha the "eastine$ity in inco'e an "iving stanarsK an the "owest iscrepancies in eath rates an "i,e e#pectancyX an thehighest overa"" "i,e e#pectancy o, the wor".


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8B


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nc wallECend !lsen minimum wage will pass now% Two reasonsDa !bama"s conrolling he issue he"s using his pc o ma'e a oe comeas soon as possible0 and o marshal as many oes as are needed%Db 5usiness bac'ing recen poll proes big and small businesses arelaching ono he proposal0 which swings boh dems and he G!# owardshe bill o ge oes%

#$ conrols he uniueness debae his ocus is wor'ing now o swingoes/# 3(FJ5n pop$"ist appea"K &%a'a spot"ights 'ini'$' wageL ssociate )ressK )$%"ishe=March !L http=//www.washingtonpost.co'/%$siness/in-connectic$t-o%a'a-to-spot"ight-'ini'$'-wage/21/4/!/6ca1a,8-a4e-11e4-%86!-48%2!(264Vstory.ht'"Mo$nting a show o, s$pport ,ro' "ie-'ine governorsK )resient ?arac &%a'a p$t a

spoligh +ednesday on a minimum wage p$sh that ;e'ocrats hope wi""appea" to econo'ica""y s$eeBe voters inNove'%ers 'iter' e"ections.L>taning at thecenter o, a pace co""ege gy'nasi$'K &%a'a sai raising ho$r"y wages to P1.1 wo$" p$"" 'i""ions o, 'ericanso$t o, poverty. "tho$gh one o, &%a'as top prioritiesK the proposa" is 'ore "ie"y to serve as a ra""ying cry ,or

;e'ocrats in the approaching e"ection than to %e aopte %y 0ongress in the ,oreseea%"e ,$t$re. L5n a no tosta$nch ep$%"ican oppositionK &%a'a $rge 'ericans to e'an answers ,ro'their "aw'aers a%o$t whether they s$pport raising stagnant wages . 5, they ontK whynotWLZs the' to reconsier. s the' to sie with the 'aority o, 'ericansK[ &%a'a sai. Z5nstea o, saying no

,or onceK say yes.[L+he %acrop as &%a'a ra""ie a crow o, 4Kat 0entra" 0onnectic$t >tateUniversity= @o$r northeastern governors C ,ro' 0onnectic$tK Massach$settsK Der'ont an hoe 5s"an C who

s$pport &%a'as proposa".LMore than 2 states have increase their state-"eve" 'ini'$'wagesK sai :a%or >ecretary +o' )ereBK inc"$ing si# in the year since &%a'a Frst ca""e ,or a ,eera" increase.

7emocras beliee he push will bolser a populis message a%o$t

e#paning opport$nity that they %e"ieve o9ers their %est shot at ,ening o9ep$%"icans this Nove'%er.L s i, to $nerscore how po"itica""y charge the iss$e has a"reay %eco'eKep$%"icans seiBe on &%a'as appearance to acc$se hi' o, threatening to o%"iterate %a"y neee o%s. Lep$%"icans cite a st$y ,ro' the nonpartisan 0ongressiona" ?$get &Sce esti'ating the proposa" wo$" c$te'p"oy'ent %y ro$gh"y !K o%s. +he teven Greenho$seK "a%or an worp"ace reporter at +he New Aor+i'es. +hey Rare trying to hit this har...as a way to erase "ossesR associate with&%a'acareKR Greenho$se te""s +he ;ai"y +icer.L;e'ocrats a"so see raising the 'ini'$' wage Ras an i'portantway to "i,t the wages o, 'i""ions o, 'erican worersKR says Greenho$se.L+he c$rrent ,eera" 'ini'$' wage is

P7.2! an ho$r -- whichK a,ter a$sting ,or inQationK is a%o$t 4 "ess than it was 6 years ago. )resient
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/author/bernice-napach/http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/author/bernice-napach/http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/author/bernice-napach/http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/author/bernice-napach/


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&%a'a an 'any ;e'ocrats want to raise the 'ini'$' to P1.1 an ho$r %y 216K whichwo$" %oost the earnings o, so'e 16 'i""ion 'ericans.+he 0ongressiona" ?$get &Scesays the wage hie wo$"re$ce poverty ,or (K 'ericans %$t a"so e"i'inate !K o%s -- a conc"$sion that ep$%"icans are $sing toarg$e against the hie. LGiven that oppositionK)resient &%a'a ecie to instit$te the wage hie ,or ,eera"contractors %y e#ec$tive orerK e9ective ne#t an$ary. Eighteen states have instit$te a 'ini'$' wage thatOshigher than the nationa" 'ini'$'. o'e economiss argue ha increasing he earned income aC credi

would be more eecie %eca$se it wo$" shi,t the %$ren ,ro' e'p"oyers to the govern'ent.L

R ?epublicans really don2 wan o do i %eca$se that wo$" cost the

govenr'ent%i""ions o, o""arsKR says Greenho$se. R+hat is a heavier po"itica" "i,t than raising the 'ini'$'

wageKR which is why 7emocras are ocusing on minimum wage K says Greenho$se.L

recent treet o$rna"/N?0 News po"" ,o$n that 64 o, 'ericans s$pport raising the'ini'$' wageto P1.1 an ho$r. >eventy-seven percent o, ;e'ocrats s$pporte that "eve"K whi"e 7 o,ep$%"icans i. >$pport overa"" ec"ine a%ove P1.1 an ho$r.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-cbo-projects-job-losses-191734792.htmlhttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-cbo-projects-job-losses-191734792.htmlhttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/obama-raises-minimum-wage-contract-193133366.htmlhttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/obama-raises-minimum-wage-contract-193133366.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303330204579250473005492880http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-cbo-projects-job-losses-191734792.htmlhttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/obama-raises-minimum-wage-contract-193133366.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303330204579250473005492880


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EC public supporMassie public suppor or he legislaion means i will ge a midermocusGoldman 3(11J'ericans >p"it on &%a'a as 6( ?ac Mini'$' . >enate. ep$%"icans nee a net gain o, si# seats in Nove'%ers e"ections to

retae contro" o, the cha'%er.LZ+he si#-point increase in &%a'as approva" rating p$ts hi'%ac in the territory he typica""y occ$pies K[ sai nn >e"BerK ,o$ner o, ;es MoinesK 5owa-%ase>e"Ber Y 0o.K which con$cte the March 7-1 po"" o, 1K1 U.>. a$"ts that has a 'argin o, error o, p"$s or 'in$s4.1 percentage points. Ze ha a post-e"ection %$'p in ;ece'%er o, 212 an @e%r$ary 214 an then a steay

ec"ine.[L

+he s$rvey is an ear"y test o, how 'ericans are responing to the centra"the'es &%a'a $nvei"e in his >tate o, the Union aressK inc"$ing e#paningecono'ic opport$nityK $pwar 'o%i"ity an raising wages. +hose iss$es a"so wi"" %e centra"the'es ,or ;e'ocrats in this years e"ections.L>i#ty-nine percent o, 'ericansK inc"$ing ! percent o,ep$%"icansK s$pport the presients ca"" to raise the ,eera" 'ini'$' wage to P1.1 overthe ne#t three years. +wenty-eight percent o, po"" responents oppose s$ch action.
http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Ann%20Selzer&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_jahttp://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Ann%20Selzer&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja


20/361

EC !bama pushing!bama is pushing he wage increase and is wor'ing now5oyer 3(HJ&%a'a contin$es p$sh ,or 'ini'$' wage hie that 0?& says wi"" cost !3 o%sK ;ave ?oyer is a o'e "aw'aersH even want to get ri o, it co'p"ete"y C serio$s"yK[ Mr.

&%a'a sai.LMr. &%a'aK who is vacationing with his ,a'i"y this weeen in an e#c"$sive private resort in the

@"oria 3eysK sai a %oost in the 'ini'$' wage wo$" give pay raises to 28 'i""ion 'ericans.LZ+he 'ericanpeop"e are way ahea o, 0ongress on this iss$eK an weve $st got to "et 0ongressnow thatK[he sai. Z5ts ti'e ,or \ten-ten. 5ts ti'e to give 'erica a raise.[ LEar"ier in the weeK Mr. &%a'atrave"e to 0onnectic$t ,or a ca'paign-sty"e event with ,o$r ;e'ocratic governors,ro' New Eng"an to ca"" ,or a hie in the 'ini'$' wage . +he presient note that so'e

%$sinesses "ie 0ostco an the Gap are not waiting ,or 0ongressto actK raising the wage ,or their own e'p"oyees.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/congress/http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/republican-party/http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/congress/http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/congress/http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/congress/http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/congress/http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/congress/http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/republican-party/http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/congress/http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/congress/http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/congress/


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EC G!# supporG!# suppor has eCised in he pas !bama 6us has o reaciae i;reidman 3(AJo$se >peaer ohn ?oehner %a"s at )resient &%a'aOs p$sh to raise the 'ini'$' wage ;an @rei'anKcorresponent ,or NA ai"y.http=//www.nyai"ynews.co'/news/nationa"/ho$se-speaer-ohn-%oehner-%a"s-

presient-o%a'a-ca""-wage-increase-artic"e-1.171248!]i#BB2voEsw6 o$se >peaer ohn ?oehner is %a"ing at)resient &%a'as ca"" to raise the 'ini'$' wageK %$t'e'%ers o, his own party ,avore a hieC eight years ago.LZNo%oy woring ,$""-ti'esho$" have to "ive in povertyK[ 26 ep$%"icans wrote ?oehner in 26K $rging ahie in the 'ini'$' wage,ro' P!.1! an ho$r to P7.2!. :i%era" activist a"ph Naer re,erence their stance in a"etter


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Top o ha doc'eECend !lson as long as !bama can ocus his pc on i0 i will say he opissue% Tha e also says ha business suppor groups are pushing i o heop

/nd0 &"s he op issue or boh paries because i appeals o swing oersduring he miderms+olgang (1FJ&%a'a eyes P1.1 'ini'$' wageX G&) ,oc$ses on those with Bero ins$rance a,ter &%a'acareL ?en at$ray %ro$ght 'ore evience o, how i9erent"y )resient &%a'a an congressiona"ep$%"icans wi"" approach this cr$cia" e"ection yearK with the


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a( /$/ humperG!# is olding !bama-care now hey realiIe opposiion iscounerproducieEasley 3(11J Maor Dictory ,or &%a'a= o$se ep$%"icans 5ntro$ce 4 ?i""s +hat 5'prove &%a'acareL ?y= ason is the hea

writer at po"itic$sU> +$esayK MarchK 11thK 21L http=//www.po"itic$s$sa.co'/21/4/11/'aor-victory-o%a'a-ho$se-rep$%icans-intro$ce-4-%i""s-i'prove-o%a'acare.ht'"

5n what is a 'aor victory ,or the presientK o$se ep$%"icans wi"" vote on three%i""s ne#t wee that correct s'a"" iss$esan $nintene conse$ences in the 0.L)o"itico Jvia>"atehas the etai"s=Lo$se ep$%"ican "eaers are p"anning to %ring $p three changes to &%a'acare ne#t weeC %$t $n"ie oBens o, prior %i""sK these are 'ore 'inor 'eas$res that are not e#pecte to %e controversia". ""three %i""s essentia""y F# ra,ting errorsK perceive oversights or $nintene conse$ences in the presients9ora%"e 0are ct. +hey have %ipartisan s$pport an are sche$"e to %e consiere $ner a s$spension o, ther$"esK which "i'its e%ate an re$ires s$pport ,ro' two-thirs o, o$se 'e'%ers C a signa" that "eaers o, %othparties o not e#pect any heate e%ate.L+hey ho" so'e po"itica" signiFcanceK howeverK %eca$se they a""owep$%"icans to p$sh %ac against the ;e'ocrats ta"ing point that the G&) is on"y intereste in ho"ing votes to

pic at &%a'acares Qaws.+hey a"so represent the rea"ity that &%a'acare is now ,$""y

i'p"e'ente C an no fCing errors could be more damaging o opponens

han being perceied as rying o ma'e !bamacare wor' beer .L


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a( ,agel humper,agel is obiously pushing i !bama will seer clearKae 3(FJ;e,ense >ecretary age" e,ens the )entagons propose %$get an c$tsLGreg a9eK )$%"ishe= March !Lhttp=//www.washingtonpost.co'/wor"/nationa"-sec$rity/e,ense-secretary-hage"-e,ens-the-pentagons-propose-

%$get-an-c$ts/21/4/!/c!c(a2-a8-11e4-8-e!(%17(222cVstory.ht'";e,ense >ecretary 0h$c age" on enate ep$%"icans who sai that steep c$ts envisione in the p"an wo$" "eave the Unite>tates v$"nera%"e in an increasing"y chaotic wor".L+he &%a'a a'inistration p"ans to s"ash e,ense spening toa%o$t P(! %i""ion in 21!K or a%o$t P114 %i""ion "ess than the "eve"s conte'p"ate in "ast years %$get proposa". LZ+he res$"ts o, these c$ts have %een evastating to o$r nationa" sec$rityK[ sai >en. a'es M. 5nho,e J&"a.K theraning ep$%"ican on the >enate r'e >ervices 0o''ittee.L+he c$ts are the pro$ct o, a %ipartisan %$get ea"that enacts iscretionary spening caps that arent especia""y pop$"ar with the )entagon or "aw'aers o, either

party.Lage" escri%e the %ig re$ctions in spening as necessary to protect training%$gets ,or the c$rrent ,orce an to preserve 'oney set asie to %$y new p"anesKships an gro$n co'%at vehic"es.L Zenate pane". LGen. Martin ;e'pseyK thechair'an o, the oint 0hie,s o, >ta9K sai that even with the c$tsK the 'i"itary wo$" sti"" %e a%"e to carry o$t its'issions aro$n the g"o%eK a"%eit with increase ris.L+he c$ts wi"" hit gro$n ,orces especia""y harK sca"ing %acthe r'y to a%o$t K troopsK its s'a""est siBe in 7 years. &n"y a ,ew areasK s$ch as >pecia" &perations an

cy%er ,orcesK wi"" see 'oest increases $ner the %$get proposa".L+he ep$%"ican criticis' o, the spening p"anwas '$te so'ewhat %eca$se %oth parties ha signe o9 on the c$rrent %$get caps. LZAo$ co'e here with a

%$get that constrains $s in a way that is $npreceenteK[ sai >en. ohn Mc0ain J-riB.. Mc0ain a"so notethat the cha""enges the )entagon ,aces Zhave %een %re %y se$estrationK[ the "awthat p$t in p"ace the initia" a$to'atic spening caps.L+he &%a'a a'inistrations "ong-ter'%$get p"an sees to increase )entagon spening %y as '$ch as P4! %i""ion %eyon the c$rrent caps in 216 an anaitiona" P8 %i""ion ,ro' 217 to 22. +he ,$t$re increases in spening are "ie"y to ,ace sti9 resistance ,ro'%$get haws in %oth parties.LZ5 thin the increasesH are wish,$" thiningK[ sai +o arrisonK an ana"yst with the

0enter ,or >trategic an ?$getary ssess'ents in


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i(l secion


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&%a'as aress ca'e a ay a,ter new Fg$res showe that the U> ae 17!Ko%s in @e%r$aryK a "arger rise than ha %een e#pecteK %$t a"so that the$ne'p"oy'ent rate rose to 6.7.


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rep"enishe or i, a "a'e $c can acco'p"ish "itt"e.?e,ore eter'ining thisK a eFnition o, a "a'e $c)resient '$st %e eve"ope.


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pocaps realGeneric =pocap"s no real> won" cu he musard wih our scenario is allabou wheher !bama can credibly conince he G!# o cae on $&? andoher losses li'e he plan damage ha% ou should priIe he specifc lin'analysis o he 1nc oer generic ,irsch cards%

#oliical $apial is real- empirics are on our side

Mandel 1>eth Mane" is ssistant Eitor o, 0o''entary 'agaBine. e was a 211 Nationa" >ec$rity @e""ow at the @o$nation,or ;e,ense o, ;e'ocracies. )rior to thatK Mane" was Managing Eitor o, +he ewish >tateK +he ewish o$rna"K an+he >peaerK where he won 5nvestigative eporting awars ,or his coverage o, the >econ :e%anon


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a( ,irsch,irsh concedes poliical capial maers,irsh 13Michae"K chie, corresponentK +heres No >$ch +hing as )o"itica" 0apita"K 2/7/14Khttp=//www.nationa"o$rna".co'/'agaBine/there-s-no-s$ch-thing-as-po"itica"-capita"-

21427The poin is no ha =poliical capial> is a meaningless erm . &,ten it is asynony' ,or Z'anate[ or Z'o'ent$'[ in the a,ter'ath o, a ecisive e"ectionCan $st a%o$t every po"iticianever e"ecte has trie to c"ai' 'ore o, a 'anate than he act$a""y has. 0ertain"yK &%a'a can say that %eca$se he

was e"ecte an o'ney wasntK he has a %etter c"ai' on the co$ntrys 'oo an irection. Many p$nitssti"" e,en po"itica" capita" as a $se,$" 'etaphorat "east. =5ts an $n$antiFa%"e %$t

meaningul concep K[ says Nor'an &rnstein o, the 'erican Enterprise 5nstit$te. ZAo$ cant rea""y "oo

at a presient an say hes got 47 o$nces o, po"itica" capita". ?$t the ,act is K its a concep ha

maers 0 i, yo$ have pop$"arity an so'e 'o'ent$' on yo$r sie %>


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&mpacs


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: econ?aising minimum wages grows econ by giing low-wage wor'ers moremoney%;iscal #olicy &nsiue-)A @isca" )o"icy 5nstit$teK an organiBation eicate towars e#a'ining anresearching the e9ects an yna'ics o, econo'ic po"iciesK 4/4/6. ZStates with Minimum Wages above the Federal Level

have had Faster Small Business and Retail Job Growth http=//www.Fsca"po"icy.org/@)5>'a""?$sinessMin


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nc a( cus badTheir argumens aren" saisically sound a high wage is beer on eerymeasure,olland 3(LJ"" o, the rg$'ents gainst aising the Mini'$' o those oppose to giving "ow-inco'e worers a raise o9er a n$'%er o, c"ai'ss$ggesting it wo$" %e a s$ppose"y %a iea. Un,ort$nate"y ,or their ca$seK a"" o,their arg$'ents ,a"" apart $ner c"ose scr$tiny. ere are the ones ep"oye 'ost,re$ent"y.Z5ts a 'onstro$s o%-i""er[

?ig %$siness conservatives crowe when a recent report %y the 0ongressiona"?$get &Sce J0?& proecte that a hie to P1.1 'ight cost the econo'y!Ko%s never 'in that it wo$" have raise the inco'es o, aro$n 17'i""ion 'ericans. ?$t a n$'%er o, econo'ists isp$te the 0?& Fning . &ne o,the'K ohn >ch'itt ,ro' the 0enter ,or Econo'ic an )o"icy esearchK st$ie yearso, research on the $estionK an ,o$nthat the Zweight o, that evience points to"itt"e or no e'p"oy'ent response to 'oest increases in the 'ini'$' wage .[tate has the highest 'ini'$' wage in theco$ntry not ,ar ,ro' the P1.1 per ho$r propose %y ?arac &%a'a. t the ti'eit was passeK opponents pro'ise it wo$" i"" o%s an $"ti'ate"y h$rt the worers

it was esigne to he"p.?$t it int t$rn o$t that way. +his weeK ?"oo'%ergs Dictoria >ti"we""K )etero%ison an


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nother arg$'ent is that it wo$" isproportionate"y h$rt s'a"" %$sinesses givingthe $ire at the U0-?ere"ey 0enter ,or :a%or esearch anE$cation an >tephanie :$ce at 0UNAs M$rphy 5nstit$te ,or t$ies esti'ate that raising the 'ini'$' wage to P12 per ho$r two%$cs 'ore than whats c$rrent"y on the ta%"e wo$" increase the cost o, an

average shopping trip to


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a( hurs 6obs

5es sudies show ha you"re wrong i acually increases 6obs and sereas a chec' on bad employer pracices%#orero )13JNoK aising the Mini'$' ti""K at the en o, the ay those ,$""-ti'e worers wo$"on"y %e taing ho'e P18K72K %e,ore ta#es.

o%sK o%sK o%s= 5s +he 'erican Econo'ic ecovery @or ea"W@o$rth $arter U> G;) @a""s .1 - @irst ;ec"ine >ince >econ $arter 2(aising the 'ini'$' wage an ine#ing it to inQation wo$" %e one step towareasing the %$ren on the woring poorK accoring to the &%a'a a'inistration. ?$ttop ep$%"icansK s$ch as o$se ?$get 0o''ittee 0hair'an )a$" yanK -en. Marco $%ioK -@"a.K have a"reay c"ear"y e#presse their opposition to thep"anK re"ying on the age-o" arg$'ent that %$sinesses wi"" hire "ess i, they are,orce to pay 'ore even an e#tra P1.7! per ho$r.

,isory 0 howeer0 indicaes oherwise .


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reporte an increase co$" he"p re$ceK however 'in$te"yK the rate o, inco'eine$a"ity in the U.>. %y p$shing $p the inco'es o, the poor.

Tha could even oriy he economy K accoring to the @eera" eserve ?an o,

0hicagoKwhich reports thatK ,or every P1 increase in the 'ini'$' wageK spening%y ho$seho"s with 'ini'$' wage worers increase %y P7 per $arter.

+he state o,


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EC - daaEmpirical daa rom he 4L wage increase also proes you wrongEconomic #olicy &nsiue ))H n organiBation that ,oc$ses on the genera" econo'y an the e9ects that po"icy has on itK $g$st 28. ZE)5 5ss$eG$ie= Mini'$'


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Global econ inernal89 is 'ey o he global economy$aploe0 )4J;aviK )h; in 5nternationa" po"itica" econo'y ,ro' )rincetonK Z@oc$s sti"" on 'erica to "ea g"o%a" recoveryK[ +he>traits +i'esK 8/2/12

5N +E a,ter'ath o, the G-2 s$''itK 'ost o%servers see' to have 'isse perhaps the 'ost cr$cia" state'ent o, the entire eventK'ae %y Unite >tates )resient ?arac &%a'a at his pre-con,erence 'eeting with ?ritish )ri'e Minister Goron ?rown= O+he

wor" has %eco'e acc$sto'e to the U> %eing a voracio$s cons$'er 'aretK the enginethatrives a "ot o,econo'ic growthwor"wieKO he sai. O5, there is going to %e renewe growthK it $st canOt %e the U> as theengine.O an the rest o, the wor" a"so e#p"ains how theco""apse o, are"ative"y s'a"" sectoro, the U> econo'y - Os$%-pri'eO ho$singK "ogarith'ica""y e#ponentia"ise %y treetOs ingenio$s chicanery - has cascae into the worst g"o%a"econo'ic crisis since the Great;epression. +o p$t it si'p"yK Mr &%a'a oesnOt see' to $nerstan that there is no other engine ,or the wor" econo'y - anhasnOt %een ,or the "ast si# ecaes. 5, the U> oes not rive g"o%a" econo'ic growthK growth is not going to happen. +h$sK U>po"icies to ea" with the c$rrent crisis are critica" not $st o'estica""yK %$t a"so to the entire wor". 0onse$ent"yK it is a 'atter o,g"o%a" concern that the &%a'a a'inistration see's to %e ,o""owing apanOs O'oe"O ,ro' the 1((s= a""owing 'aor %ans to avoiec"aring 'assive "osses open"y an transparent"yK an so perpet$ating OBo'%ieO %ans - technica""y a"ive %$t in rea"ity ea. sana"ysts "ie No%e" "a$reates oseph >tig"itB an )a$" 3r$g'an have pointe o$tK the a'inistrationOs $nwi""ingness to con,ront U>%ans is the 'ain reason why they are contin$ing their increasing"y ine#p"ica%"e creit ,reeBeK th$s ravaging the 'erican ang"o%a" econo'ies. +ea' &%a'a see's re"$ctant to acnow"ege the e#tent to which its po"icies at ho'e are ,ai"ing not $st there%$t aro$n the wor" as we"". canOt or wonOt or oesnOt want to %e the g"o%a" econo'ic engineK

which co$ntry wi""W +he o%vio$s answer is 0hina. ?$t that is $nrea"istic ,or three reasons. @irstK 0hinaOs econo'ichea"th is 'ore tie to 'ericaOs than practica""y any otherco$ntry in the wor". 5neeK the reason 0hinahas so 'any o""ars to invest everywhere - whether in U> +reas$ry %ons or in ,rica - is precise"y that it has str$ct$re its ownecono'y to co'p"e'ent 'ericaOs. +he on"y way 0hina can serve as the engine o, the g"o%a" econo'y is i, the U> starts p$""ing itFrst. >econK the U>-centre syste' %egan at a ti'e when its o'estic e'an ,ar o$tstrippe that o, the rest o, the wor". +he,$na'enta" so$rce o, its econo'ic power is its a%i"ity to act as the g"o%a" cons$'er o, "ast resort. 0hinaK howeverK is a poorco$ntryK with "ow per capita inco'eK even tho$gh it wi"" soon pass apan as the wor"Os secon "argest econo'y. +here are rea"possi%i"ities ,or growth in 0hinaOs o'estic e'an. ?$t given its str$ct$re as an e#port-oriente econo'yK it is o$%t,$" i, even as$ccess,$" 0hinese sti'$"$s p"an can p$"" the rest o, the wor" a"ong $n"ess an $nti" 0hina can start se""ing again to the U> on a'assive sca"e. @ina""yK the ey Osyste'O iss$e ,or 0hina - or ,or the E$ropean Union - in thining a%o$t %eco'ing the engine o, thewor" econo'y - is 'onetary= has str$gg"e withK not a"ways s$ccess,$""yK ,ro' 1(!( to the present. o""ar as thewor"Os 'ei$' o, e#changehas given theU> so'e tre'eno$s avantagesK it has a"so create h$ge pro%"e'sK %oth ,or 'erica an the g"o%a" econo'ic syste'. +he0hinese "eaership is certain"y ,a'i"iar with this history. 5t wi"" try to avoi the y$an %eco'ing an internationa" 'ei$' o, e#change$nti" it ,ee"s '$ch 'ore conFent in its a%i"ity to han"e the 'ani,o" c$rrency pro%"e's that the U> has grapp"e with ,or ecaes.

Given a"" thisK the U> wi"" re'ain the engineo, g"o%a" econo'ic recovery or he oreseeable

uure K even tho$gh other co$ntries '$st certain"y he"p.


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Growh Turns errorGrowh urns errorism9chaeer ))1J?rett ;.K ay 3ingha' @e""ow in 5nternationa" eg$"atory 9airs in the 0enter ,or 5nternationa" +rae an Econo'ics at +he eritage @o$nationK eritage@o$nation ?acgro$ner ]1!8K ZE#pan @reeo' to 0o$nter +erroris'[K ;ece'%er 6Khttp=//www.heritage.org/esearch/+raean@oreigni/?G1!8.c,'

+he conQict in ,ghanistan is 'ere"y the 'ost i''eiate phase o, the war on terroris'.@or 'erica an its a""ies to win thewar an s$stain this victoryK they '$st aopt a strategy that attacs the incentives,or terroris' . +his strategy '$st %e centere on the pro'otion o, econo'ic,reeo' .s note %y U.>. +rae epresentative o%ert ?. Toe""ic= +erroristsH stan ,or into"erance an a%horopenness. +hey ,ear ,oreign ieasK re"igionsK an c$"t$res. +hey see the 'oernwor" as a threatK not an opport$nity. +hey "eave peop"e in poverty an ha", o, h$'aninK wo'enK in s$%$gation. +hei rstrategy is to terroriBe an para"yBeK not to e%ate an create.+he internationa" 'aret econo'y...o9ers anantiote to this vio"ent reectionis'.+rae is a%o$t 'ore than econo'ic eSciencyXit reQects a syste' o, va"$es= opennessK peace,$" e#changeK opport$nityKinc"$siveness an integration K '$t$a" gains thro$gh interchangeK ,reeo' o, choiceKappreciation o, i9erencesK governance thro$gh agree r$"esK an a hope ,or%etter'ent ,or a"" peop"es an "ans....$st as o$r 0o" cienceK )enn >tateK 2K &UN: &@ 0&N@:50+ E>&:U+5&NK Do". 8 No. 2K pri" 2 24-2!8Khttp=//cr.sagep$%.co'/cgi/reprint/8/2/24W'a#toshowIY5+>I1YhitsI1YE>U:+@&M+IYsearchiI1(7!117!66V12!YstoreVsearchIY@5>+5N;E_I2Y'inscoreI!Yo$rna"coeIspcr JDUN486+he inirectK negative e9ects o, the g"o%a"iBation varia%"esK as hypothesiBe in hypotheses 2 an 4K receive s$pport in 'oe" 1. co$ntrys G;) per

capitaK 'eas$ring its own "eve" o, eve"op'entK is statistica""y signiFcant an negativeK consistent with hypothesis 2. s a co$ntry%eco'es 'ore eve"ope K the n$'%er o, transnationa" terrorist incients ecrease swithin its %orers.5n aitionK the average "eve" o, eve"op'ent o, the co$ntrys top e#port estination co$ntriesK 'eas$re %y theiraverage G;) per capitaK is a"so statistica""y signiFcant an negative. 0onsistent with hypothesis 4K as the "eve" o, eve"op'ent ina co$ntrys econo'ic partner co$ntries i'provesK the n$'%er o, transnationa"terrorist incients ecreases within the co$ntry. +his i'p"ies that growing econo'icintegration %etween the co$ntry an its econo'ic partners can he"p to re'oveso'e incentive ,or ,oreign terrorists ,ro' those partner co$ntries to attac targetswithin this co$ntry.?ase on the coeScients o, 'oe" 1K a 1increase in the G;) per capita o, a co$ntry ecreases the e#pecte n$'%ero, transnationa" terrorist incients within the co$ntry %y 1(.4K ho"ing a"" other varia%"es constant. 1 increase in the averageG;) per capita o, the co$ntrys top eight e#port estination co$ntries ecreases thee#pecte n$'%er o, transnationa" terrorist incients within this co$ntry %y 7.!Kho"ing other varia%"es constant."tho$gh the g"o%a"iBation varia%"es have no irect positive e9ectK their inirectnegative e9ect thro$gh inQ$encing econo'ic eve"op'ent appears "arge ani'portant.
http://www.heritage.org/Research/TradeandForeignAid/BG1508.cfmhttp://www.heritage.org/Research/TradeandForeignAid/BG1508.cfmhttp://www.heritage.org/Research/TradeandForeignAid/BG1508.cfm#pgfId=1195199http://www.heritage.org/Research/TradeandForeignAid/BG1508.cfm#pgfId=1195199http://www.heritage.org/Research/TradeandForeignAid/BG1508.cfmhttp://www.heritage.org/Research/TradeandForeignAid/BG1508.cfm#pgfId=1195199


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Growh urns democracyEconomic decline causes muliple sies o sae ailure and democraicbac'sliding;erguson 4Nia"" K>enior @e""ow at the oover 5nstit$tion at >tan,or UniversityK Harvard Business ReviewK Do". 87 5ss$e 7/8K $"y/a$g (

$an -- e#pect new o$t%reas o,insta%i"ity in co$ntries we tho$ght ha 'ae it to e'ocracy. 5n siaK+hai"an 'ay %ethe 'ost v$"nera%"e. t the en o, 27 it reverte to e'ocracy a,ter a spe"" o, 'i"itary r$"e that was s$ppose to crac own oncorr$ption. tates see' 'ore attractive noton"y as a sa,e haven %$t a"so as a g"o%a" po"ice'an. Many peop"e spent the years ,ro'21 to 28 co'p"ain ing a%o$t U.>. interventions overseas. ?$t i, the Fnancia"crisis t$rns $p the heat in o" hot spots an creates new ones at either en o,E$rasiaK the wor" 'ay spen the ne#t eight years wishing ,or 'ore K not ,ewerK U.>.interventions.


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1nc will pass$&? is sill li'ely saisical suppor+olgin 3(J5''igration )o""ing o$n$p= 'ericans o, "" )o"itica" >tripes tates is 'ore i'portant thansec$ring the nations %orers.


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'ost 'ericans are in ,avor o, the pathway to citiBenshipK they strong"y reect approaches that wo$" "eave$na$thoriBe i''igrants with secon-c"ass stat$s= &n"y 12 percent o, responents %e"ieve that $na$thoriBei''igrants sho$" receive "ega" stat$s %$t not %e a%"e to %eco'e citiBens. +wo-thirs o, ;e'ocrats s$pporte thepathway to citiBenshipK whi"e on"y 4 percent o, ep$%"icans i. oweverK a s'a""er percentage o, ep$%"icansC(percentCthan any other gro$p s$pporte a "ega"-stat$s-on"y approach to i''igration re,or'. +his Fna" res$"tsho$" give pa$se to congressiona" "eaership as they proposeK as ep$%"icans i with their i''igration princip"esK"ega"iBation witho$t citiBenship ,or $na$thoriBe i''igrants.L!. @o# News= More than two-thirs o, 'ericanss$pport the pathway to citiBenship an reect 'ass eportation Jan$ary 21L$pport ,or re$iring a"" $na$thoriBe i''igrants to %e sent %ac to their ho'e co$ntries stoo at on"y 1! percent.>$pport ,or the pathway to citiBenship has increase s"ight"yK %y 2 percentK since May 214K whi"e s$pport ,orsening $na$thoriBe i''igrants ho'e has roppe ! percent.L0onc"$sionL$st one wee a,ter re"easing theo$se ep$%"ican princip"esK o$se >peaer ohn ?oehner J-& ,anne the Qa'es o, his own partyK stating that'e'%ers co$" not 'ove ,orwar on i''igration %eca$se they"ace tr$stthat )resient ?arac &%a'a wi""en,orce the "aws. ?$t these arg$'entsCan those voices in the ep$%"ican )arty $rging a e"ayin i''igrationre,or' $nti" ne#t yearK at the ear"iestCo not act$a""y cha""enge the s$%stance o, re,or' proposa"sK or even thes$%stance o, the ep$%"icans own princip"es regaring i''igration re,or'. 5nsteaK they tacit"y accept the pre'isethat i''igration re,or' sho$" happen witho$t act$a""y 'oving it ,orwar.Ls Greg >argent o, +he


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&ran


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1nc 8BG!# is rying o reie he bill bu democraic ocus is sill 'ey o hold idown9orcher (LJ?ig ;e'ocratic ;onors Urge 0ongress to ?ac &9 5ran >anctionsL >ara >orcher is Nationa" o$rna"Os nationa"

sec$rity corresponent. http=//www.nationa"o$rna".co'/e,ense/%ig-e'ocratic-onors-$rge-congress-to-%ac-o9-iran-sanctions-21227

;oBens o, 'aor ;e'ocratic onors are $rging congressiona" "eaers to oppose anynew sanctions or "egis"ation that co$" eopariBe ongoing negotiations %etween wor" powers an 5ran. L+he

"etterK signe %y 82 onorsK the 'aority o, the' ewishK could be a boon or #residen

!bama2s diplomaic eors0 which res$"te in a controversia" ea" that c$r%e 'aor aspects o,5ranOs n$c"ear progra' te'porari"y as negotiations to reach a per'anent ea" contin$e. L&%a'a has pro'ise to

veto new sanctionsK %$t ?epublicans are rying anyway o reie a sancions bill %y

>ens. o%ert MeneneBK ;-N..K an Mar 3irK -5"".K which ha !( cosponsors. 5n the co'ing aysK eyspeaersK inc"$ing 5srae"i )ri'e Minister ?ena'in Netanyah$K are e#pecte to press 0ongress toeep the Fnancia" noose tight aro$n 5ran at a con,erence he" %y the 'erican5srae" )$%"ic 9airs 0o''itteeK enate Maority :eaer arry eiK Maorityierra 0"$%

@o$nation )resient G$y >apersteinC could go a long way towar convincing ;e'ocrats

that s$pporting their presientOs interi' agree'ent with 5ran is a po"itica""y tena%"eoption.L R+his is the po"itica" center o, gravity o, the ;e'ocratic )arty te""ing 0ongress there is no po"itica" neeto o what the organiBations p$shing hawish actions on 5ran want yo$ to oKR a "o%%yist arg$ing against new 5ran

sanctions sai $ner conition o, anony'ity.L)raising the agree'ent %etween si# wor" powers an 5ran inNove'%er as a RFrst stepR towar a co'prehensive agree'ent to prevent 5ran ,ro' eve"oping n$c"ear weaponsKthe onors echoe &%a'aOs >tate o, the Union c"ai's that 5ran has %eg$n to ,reeBeK an ro"" %acK parts o, itsprogra' $ner stringent internationa" 'onitoring ,or the Frst ti'e in a ecae. L+he onors insist that "aw'aerssho$" %e aware o, 5ranOs threats that new sanctionsCeven i, they i not tae e9ect i''eiate"yCwo$" %e seenas a vio"ation o, the interi' agree'ent an co$" r$pt$re negotiations. R)assing s$ch "egis"ation wo$" "ie"y "ea toan i''eiate an s$%stantia" "essening o, econo'ic press$re on 5ran %eca$se other co$ntriesK "ie 0hinaK $ssiaKthe E$ropean UnionK apanK >o$th 3oreaK 5nia an +$rey 'ight cease i'p"e'enting sanctions on the gro$n thatthe U.>. ha $ner'ine negotiationsKR the "etter sai.L0ongress co$" a"ways pass new sanctions i, 5ran vio"atethe agree'entK the onors sai. oweverK ,or their partK Netanyah$ an pro-5srae" gro$ps in the U.>. s$pporting5srae"i "eaership on this iss$e want to eep the press$re tight $ring the interi' ea"K which oes not ,$""yis'ant"e +ehranOs n$c"ear progra'.L+he onors a"so tae what is s$re to %e a controversia" stan on $rani$'enrich'ent.L>o'e 'e'%ers o, 0ongress are insisting that 5ran give $p enriching $rani$'K even to "ow "eve"sKwhich the 5s"a'ic ep$%"ic has a"reay ecrie as a ea"-%reaer. )$tting s$ch a provision into "aw wo$" threatenta"s %y Rtying the hansR o, %oth U.>. negotiators an o$haniK Rwho co$" not ,easi%"y Fna"iBe a ea" that Beroeso$t o'estic enrich'entKR the "etter sai.LR:ie sanctionsK s$ch a "egis"ative poison pi"" wo$" on"y serve to eroethe prospects ,or ip"o'atic s$ccessKR the "etter contin$e. REven i, congressiona" action too the ,or' o, anon%ining reso"$tionK or i, the presient vetoe s$ch "egis"ationK its initia" passage wo$" strengthen the han o,5ranian har-"iners arg$ing against negotiations on the gro$n that 0ongress wi"" not accept any ea" reache at thenegotiating ta%"e.RL;ip"o'acyOs ,ai"$re nowK the onors contin$eK wo$" either "ea to 'i"itary action or 5ran

getting a n$c"ear weapon. R


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nc !bama sill 'ey!bama"s eors are 'ey o sopping he bill?euers 3(JU.>. senator sti"" %e"ieves in new 5ran sanctions %i""L e$tersK L March K 21Lhttp=//news.yahoo.co'/$-senator-sti""-%e"ieves-iran-sanctions-%i""-16411778(.ht'"U.>. >enator o%ert MeneneB sai on +$esay he sti"" sees his "egis"ation to i'pose newsanctions on 5ran as the %est way to ens$re that 5ran oes not eve"op a n$c"earweaponan prevent 'i"itary action over its n$c"ear progra'.L5n a speech to thepro-5srae" "o%%y 5)0KMeneneBKthe chair'an o, the >enate @oreign e"ations 0o''itteeK e#presse eep septicis'a%o$t 5ranOs intentions in c$rrent negotiations with wor" powers.LR5 onOt %e"ieve we wi"" have s$Scient ti'e toe9ective"y i'pose new sanctions %e,ore 5ran co$" pro$ce a n$c"ear weaponK "eaving the


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#$ .owThe 7emocras are ou o poliical capialOhe /$/ is unpopular0 growh issagnan0 and he deb ceiling deal is a liabiliy

;oC 1:a$ren @o# is a po"itica" reporter ,or U.>. News Y L & anyhing0 he lac' o drama oer he deb ceiling could be apoliical liabiliy or 7emocras% +ih he deb ceiling oe ou o he way0?epublicans hae more room o aac' 7emocras on he campaign railor heir suppor o he unpopular / ordable $ are / c and sagnan

growh in he economy %L Z+his was the "ast ea"ine %i""K the "ast rop ea %i"".Now we can ,oc$s on whatever %i""s ep$%"icans want to %ring $pK[ says ep. )eter3ingK -N.A.L :ing argues ha by orcing 7emocras o pu up he ma6oriy o

he oes0 some o he ea pary ?epublicans are he ones who are

wal'ing away wih he poliical capial % They aoided he calamiy o a

deb deaul wihou being held accounable or raising he deb ceiling inprimaries bac' home%


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minimum wage o P4 per hour in his )13 9ae o The 8nion /ddress%Tha proposal wen nowhere % Twele monhs laer0 he adminisraion issumping or an increase o P1)%1) an hour% This proposal could share hesame ae %L /er pouring oer aailable research0 he non-parisan$ ongressional 5 udge ! Jce has esimaed some F))0))) wor'ers couldlose heir 6obs i he minimum wage was increased%+he "ogic is si'p"e= @or a

%$siness to e'p"oy a worerK it has to earn at "east as '$ch as the 'ini'$'-wagerate. &therwiseK the worer c$ts into the %$siness proFts an he or she wi"" not %eretaine. Many low-s'illed wor'ers oday are no generaing enoughproduciiy o be able o earn he 3)-percen increase in heir wages ha#residen !bama is proposing%L 5oiled down o is essence0 an increase inhe minimum wage is a diJcul rade-oQ 9ome wor'ers will lose heir 6obsenirely or he benef o hose who will en6oy a raise a leas in heshor run%+he worers who wi"" "ose their o%s are a'ong the "east e#periencean hence "east si""e in the econo'y. @or the'K an increase in the 'ini'$' wagewi"" p$sh the' ,ro' their p"aces on the Frst r$ngs o, the "aer o, opport$nity.L nthis parao# the reistri%$tion o, inco'e a'ong worers at the %otto' o, theecono'ic "aer is at the heart o, the a'inistrations pessi'istic po"icy.

#residen !bama and his eam are essenially waing he


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/ Top o he 7oc'eThe disad doesn" pass he =Ma'e 9ense Tes>Ofe oher bills are op ohe doc'eOhere"s no reason our plan would uniuely aec he passage

o RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGoTrac' 3(13 Gov+rac.$s. Z?i""s an eso"$tions.[ ccesse 14 March 21.https=//www.govtrac.$s/congress/%i""s/H0o'ing Up +his


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+inners +in+inners win and #$ is a useless concep,irsh 13

Michae"K chie, corresponent ,or Nationa" o$rna"X citing &rnsteinK a po"itica"scientist an scho"ar at the 'erican Enterprise 5nstit$te an ?ense"K govt pro, at0orne""K R+hereOs No >$ch +hing as )o"itica" 0apita"RK 2/7Kwww.nationa"o$rna".co'/'agaBine/there-s-no-s$ch-thing-as-po"itica"-capita"-21427?$t the a%r$pt e'ergence o, the i''igration an g$n-contro" iss$es i""$strates hows$en"y shi,ts in 'oo can occ$ran how po"itica" interests can a"ign in new ways $st as s$en"y. 5neeKthe pse$o-concept o, po"itica" capita" 'ass a "arger tr$th a%o$t o'e po"itica" scientists who st$y the e"$sive ca"c$"$s o, how to pass "egis"ationan r$n s$ccess,$" presiencies say that po"itica" capita" isK at %estK an e'pty conceptK an that a"'ost nothing in the acae'ic "iterat$re s$ccess,$""y $antiFes or even eFnes it. Z5tcan re,er to a very a%stract thingK "ie a presients pop$"arityK %$t theres no

'echanis' there. +hat ma'es i in o, useless K[ saysichar ?ense"K a govern'ent

pro,essor at 0orne""University. Even &rnstein concees that the ca"c$"$s is ,ar 'ore co'p"e# than

the ter' s$ggests. +inning on one issue oen changes he calculaion or

he neC issueS here is neer any 'nown amoun o capial . Z+he iea here isK i, an

iss$e co'es $p where the conventiona" wiso' is that presient is not going to get

what he wantsK an he gets itK then each ti'e that happensK it changes the ca"c$"$so, the other actors[ &rnstein says. Z5, they thin hes going to winK they 'ay change

positions to get on the winning sie. &"s a bandwagon eec .[
http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/there-s-no-such-thing-as-political-capital-20130207http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/there-s-no-such-thing-as-political-capital-20130207http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/there-s-no-such-thing-as-political-capital-20130207http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/there-s-no-such-thing-as-political-capital-20130207


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+on" #assNo minimum wage increaseOempirical ailure and $5! sudies proe:earney 3(1 +i'othy @. 3earneyK )h.;.K is the chair o, the ;epart'ent o, ?$sinessat Misericoria University in ;a""as +ownship an a contri%$ting co"$'nist to

+i'es:eaer.co'. Z+he 'ini'$'-wage s$rrener.[ +i'es :eaer. 1 March 21.http=//www.ti'es"eaer.co'/news/%$siness/1216!1/+he-'ini'$'-wage-s$rrenerHather than pro'ote an agena to grow o$r nationa" econo'yK the &%a'a'inistration has ecie the 'ost pro$ctive $se o, its po"itica" capita" is to p$sh,or a higher 'ini'$' wage. The presiden proposed raising he minimumwage o P4 per hour in his )13 9ae o The 8nion /ddress% Tha proposalwen nowhere% Twele monhs laer0 he adminisraion is sumping or anincrease o P1)%1) an hour% This proposal could share he same ae %L /erpouring oer aailable research0 he non-parisan $ ongressional 5 udge! Jce has esimaed some F))0))) wor'ers could lose heir 6obs i heminimum wage was increased%+he "ogic is si'p"e= @or a %$siness to e'p"oy aworerK it has to earn at "east as '$ch as the 'ini'$'-wage rate. &therwiseK theworer c$ts into the %$siness proFts an he or she wi"" not %e retaine. Many low-s'illed wor'ers oday are no generaing enough produciiy o be able oearn he 3)-percen increase in heir wages ha #residen !bama isproposing%L 5oiled down o is essence0 an increase in he minimum wageis a diJcul rade-oQ 9ome wor'ers will lose heir 6obs enirely or hebenef o hose who will en6oy a raise a leas in he shor run%+heworers who wi"" "ose their o%s are a'ong the "east e#perience an hence "eastsi""e in the econo'y. @or the'K an increase in the 'ini'$' wage wi"" p$sh the',ro' their p"aces on the Frst r$ngs o, the "aer o, opport$nity.L n this parao# the reistri%$tion o, inco'e a'ong worers at the %otto' o, the econo'ic "aer is at the heart o, the a'inistrations pessi'istic po"icy. #residen !bama andhis eam are essenially waing he


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,urs EconThe mos accurae macroeconomic models proe a minimum wage hi'ewould 'ill G7# and 6obs in he long-erm9her' and .igon 13 a'es >her is the >enior )o"icy na"yst in :a%or Econo'icsat +he eritage @o$nationK an ohn :igon researches yna'ic econo'ic 'oe"ingo, ,eera" p$%"ic po"icy at +he eritage @o$nation. ZUnpreceente Mini'$'-


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/Q 9oles #oery?aising he minimum wage would hae lile o no eec on poeryOlesshan a uarer o minimum wage wor'ers lie a or below he poery line9her' and Ta'ala 3(a'es >her an $y +aa"aX >her is the >enior )o"icy na"yst in :a%or Econo'icsat +he eritage @o$nation. ZMini'$' $%$r%an +eenagersK Not>ing"e )arents.[ +he @o$nry. March 21.http=//%"og.heritage.org/214/4//'ini'$'-wage-%eneFts-s$%$r%an-teenagers-not-sing"e-parents/H)resient &%a'a arg$e in his >tate o, the Union aress that Zno one who wors,$""-ti'e sho$" have to "ive in poverty.[ +hat is a no%"e goa"K %$t it has "itt"e to owith the 'ini'$' wage rate.L !nly %4 percen o 8%9% employees wor' or heederal minimum wage o PL%F per hour%Dery ,ew o, those Ft the stereotype

the )resient painte. .ess han a uarer o minimum wage wor'ers lie a

or below he poery line 0 while wo-hirds come rom amilies aboe 1F)

percen o he poery line% &n ac0 he aerage amily income o a

minimum wage wor'er eCceeds PF30))) a year %L ow o worers 'aingP7.2! per ho$r "ive in ,a'i"ies 'aing over P!K a yearW 5ecause mos ohem are no he primary income earner in heir amilies Omany aresudens% !er hal o minimum wage wor'ers are under F0 and beerhan hree-fhs o hose repor being enrolled in school% Two-hirds ominimum wage employees wor' par ime%

The larges proCimae cause o poery isn" low wages0 i"s a oalabsence o aailable wor'Owe need 6obs0 no higher wages% /ddiionally0raising he minimum wage discourages companies rom hiringineCperienced wor'ers0 which re-enrenches poery9her' 13

a'es >her is the >enior )o"icy na"yst in :a%or Econo'ics at +he eritage@o$nation. Zing"e)arents.[ +he eritage @o$nation. 28 @e%r$ary 214.http=//www.heritage.org/research/reports/214/2/who-earns-the-'ini'$'-wage-s$%$r%an-teenagers-not-sing"e-parentsHMany avocates o, higher 'ini'$' wages arg$e that the 'ini'$' wage nees torise to he"p "ow-inco'e sing"e parents atte'pting to s$rvive on $st a 'ini'$'-wage o%. Mini'$'-wage worersK howeverK o not Ft this stereotype. Kus percen o minimum-wage wor'ers are single parens wor'ing ull-ime0compared o F%A percen o all 8%9% wor'ers%7H Mini'$'-wage earners areact$a""y "ess "ie"y to %e sing"e parents woring ,$""-ti'e than is the average'erican worer.,igher minimum wages do no address he main reason ha mos pooramilies lie below he poery line % $onrary o wha many assume0 lowwages are no heir primary problem0 because mos poor /mericans do no

wor' or he minimum wage % The problem is ha mos poor /mericans do

no wor' a all %

/s he able demonsraes0 wo-hirds o indiiduals liing below hepoery line did no wor'0 and less han one in 1) wor'ed ull-ime year-


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round% ;amilies are poor no because hey earn low wages bu becausehey do no hae ull-ime 6obs% ?aising he minimum wage does noaddress his problem%+orse0 ma'ing i more eCpensie o hire ineCperienced wor'ers leads

businesses o hire ewer o hem% This ma'es i harder or low-income

amilies o gain he eCperience and s'ills necessary o rise ou o poery %8H This is one reason why sudies consisenly fnd ha higher minimumwages do no reduce poery raes %(H


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7oesn" 9ole,agel"s budge doesn" sole fscal woes or roop morale0 and i gusmiliary readiness&nnes 3(11 "ap in the @ace to >ervice Me'%ers.[5DN.$s. 11 March 21. http=//ivn.$s/21/4/11/21!-%$get-hage"-e"iver-s"ap-,ace-service-'e'%ers/H&n essence0 he eliminaion o commissary subsidies means ha nearly allhe money currenly proided o 'eep coss low will be gone % This willcause prices o hae o increase dramaically in order o say in business0eenually leading o he shudown o commissaries when hey can"compee wih reailers li'e +almar%L 5n aitionK the ;o; is 'anip$"ating

+ricare %eneFts ,or active $ty ,a'i"y 'e'%ers an retirees. +hey wo$" see highere$cti%"es an cost share pay'ents an wo$" %e press$re even 'ore so thanthey are c$rrent"y to $se +ricare )ri'e C the 'i"itary e$iva"ent o, an M&. Theproblem is ha his is he plan ha oers members he leas choice inheir care % 9ure he care is ree0 bu benefciaries oen hae long waiimes o see proiders only o be gien subsandard care%U /ll o hisdoesn" add up o high morale and good reenion numbers o high ualiyroops 0 bu ha doesn" seem o be somehing ha he 7o7 is worriedabou%5n ,actK it co$" wor in their ,avor.L & was also announced ha he 7o7plans o cu some H)0))) roops rom he ran's o he /rmy0 reducing i ois lowes leel since +orld +ar && % The Marine $orps would also loseH0)))-1)0))) roops0 hough i seuesraion reurns0 ha number wouldincrease %AetK the e,ense epart'ent 'aintains that these c$ts wi"" not a9ectreainess or sec$rity.L /nd while he 7o7 is cuing compensaion o heroops and sculing he orce0 hey are dumping money ino ineecieprograms %+he very pop$"ar -1 aircra,t wo$" %e retire in ,avor o, the @4!K an

aircra,t that has yet to prove itse",K has a"reay overr$n its %$get %y P164 %i""ionKan is sai to %e virt$a""y $se"ess witho$t the @22 ,or s$pport p$rposesK accoring toGenera" Michae" ostageK hea o, air co'%at co''an ,or the ir @orce.


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/Q $&?


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+on" #ass$&? won" pass under !bama because he G!# doesn" rus himOeen i idoes pass0 spoy enorcemen gus solency?ubio 3(1Marco $%ioK in an interview with )eter 0oo o, ?"oo'%erg. Z$%io=5''igration e,or' Un"ie"y Uner &%a'a.[ 12 March 21.http=//www.rea"c"earpo"itics.co'/vieo/21/4/12/r$%ioVi''igrationVre,or'V$n"ie"yV$nerVo%a'a.ht'"H0&&3= ;o yo$ thin it happens this yearK an o yo$ have any regrets at a"" thatyo$ were p"aying point 'anK ,or "ac o, a %etter ter'WU?5&= NoK 5 onOt have any regrets. My only regre on immigraion reorm iswe couldn2 arrie a a soluion ha brough on board more people0 so

ha we could acually ge i done% & hin' i2s going o be ery diJcul

now o do anyhing comprehensie in +ashingon % #eople don2 li'e o

hear his0 bu i2s rue gien he lac' o rus in his presiden haparicularly ?epublicans hae %+he arg$'ent that we contin$e to hear isK you2regoing o go ahead and do he legaliIaion 0 bu ha2s going o be lin'ed o

enorcemen0 bu hen he presiden is going o pic' and choose whichpars o he enorcemen he moes orward on and which ones he doesn20and we2re going o end up wih all o he legaliIaion and only hal or noneo he enorcemen %

$&? won" passOhe G!# is oo inen on rying o play up he =!bama is ayran> sory o =rus> him wih he enorcemen o ma6or legislaion7rum 3( 3evin ;r$' is a po"itica" writer ,or Mother Jones. Z5''igration e,or' 5s;ea ?eca$se o, ?iBarro &%a'a.[ Mother ones. March 21.http=//www.'otherones.co'/evin-r$'/21/4/i''igration-re,or'-ea-%eca$se-%iBarro-o%a'aH

ohn ?oehner says he rea""yK tr$"y wants to pass an i''igration re,or' %i""K %$t he

can on"y o it i, )resient &%a'a gives hi' 'ore he"p. >teve ?enen isnOt %$ying it= L+o a very rea" e#tentK &%a'a has a"reay one what hes s$ppose to o= heshe"pe create an environ'ent con$cive to s$ccess. +he presient an his tea'have c$"tivate p$%"ic e'an ,or i''igration re,or' an he"pe asse'%"e a %roacoa"ition %$siness "eaersK "a%orK i''igrant avocatesK the ,aith co''$nity C towor towars a co''on goa".L ?$t thats apparent"y not what ?oehner is ta"inga%o$t. ?aher0 according o he 9pea'er0 immigraion reorm can" passbecause ,ouse ?epublicans don" rus he presiden o aihully eCecuehe laws o he 8nied 9aes%L


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wi"" win so'e an "ose so'e. Never 'in any o, that. &%a'a is an "insyite espotwho is s"ow"y %$t steai"y sweeping away the "ast vestiges o, e'ocracy in thisonce great nation.


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#$ No :ey#oliical capial is no 'ey o $&?Greg 9argen 13JR>yria wonOt 'ae G&)Os i''igration pro%"e' go Rpoo,R an isappear X >yria orno >yriaK ep$%"icans wi"" sti"" pay the sa'e price a'ong :atinos i, they i""re,or'KR (/12K


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***!.7 T,8?9 ;&.E9


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Thursday ;ile 3-A


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Negaie


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Ukraine IMF Package 1NC

Ukraine IMF assistance with IMF Reform will pass now- international crisis gave it political boost

Reuters !-"!".S. uses "#raine to $ush %or &MF voting re%orms, htt$'((www.reuters.)om(arti)le(*+-(+(+-(us/u#raine/)risis/usa/im%/id"SBR01*20*+-++-34he "nited States on 4uesda5 sought to use the )risis in"#raineas leverage in its e%%ort to )onvin)e 6ongress to

a$$rove a long/sought measure to in)rease the &nternational Monetar5 Fund7s %inan)ial $ower.8 4reasur5 Se)retar5

Ja)# Lew said "#raine would be able to borrow more mone5 and avert a $otential de%ault i% ".S. lawma#ers signedo%% on the measure, whi)h would double the &MF7s resour)es and give )ountries in )risis a))ess to a bigger $ool o%$otential aid.8 4he 9bama administration on 4uesda5 tu)#ed a re:uest %or a shi%t in &MF %unding into the $resident7s$ro$osed budget %or the *+; %is)al 5ear, whi)h begins 9)tober .8 For about a 5ear, the a#ministration has beenpushing Congress to approve a shift of some $%! billion from an IMF crisis fun# to its general accounts in

or#er to maintain &ashington's influence at the global lender, and to ma#e good on an international )ommitmentmade in *++.8 iev would be able to borrow more &MF mone5.8 4he White ?ouse sought to tu)# the &MF legislation intoa $ro$osed = trillion %ederal s$ending bill in Januar5 but ".S. lawma#ers %ailed to in)lude it in the %inal version.84he administration7s re:uests have been met with s#e$ti)ism %rom some Re$ubli)ans, who see them as tantamountto a$$roving %resh %unding in a tight budget environment. Some lawma#ers have also raised )on)erns about howwell the &MF was hel$ing struggling e)onomies in 0uro$e and the ris#s atta)hed to &MF loans.8 But the &MF7sim$ortan)e ma5 be getting a boost now that "#raine is in a $oliti)al and e)onomi) )risis a%ter the ouster o% its$resident and Russian intervention in the 6rimea region.8 4he "nited States has $ledged e)onomi) and te)hni)alassistan)e to >iev but said its su$$ort should go alongside an &MF $rogram, whi)h is seen as )riti)al to shore u$"#raine7s )olla$sing %inan)es and get itse)onom5on the right tra)#.8 "#raine has as#ed the &MF %or at least =;billion to avertban#ru$t)5.

Political capital is ke( to getting IMF Reform through- it)s ke( to maintaining U*+*lea#ership

,ann -.1" /Robert >ahn is the Steven 1. 4ananbaum senior %ellow %or international e)onomi)s at the 6oun)ilon Foreign Relations 6FR3 in Washington, @.6. @r. >ahn has held $ositions in the $ubli) and $rivate se)tors, withan eA$ertise in ma)roe)onomi) $oli)5, %inan)e and )risis resolution, 0lobal conomics Monthl(2 Februar( .1"htt$'((www.)%r.org(e)onomi)s(global/e)onomi)s/monthl5/%ebruar5/*+-($*3Failure o% the legislation does not turn o%% the lights at the &MF. 4he Fund )urrentl5 has a lending )a$a)it5 o% around=-++ billion, as a result o% s$e)ial lines #nown as Cew 1rrangements to Borrow, or C1B3 agreed on in *++D, whi)h)ould be renewed in event o% another )risis. For the %oreseeable %uture, there is no alternative institution to whi)h)ountries in )risis )an turn. ?owever, the %ailure to $ass legislation in)reases the ris# that 6hina and other rising$owers will turn awa5 %rom the &MF and loo# elsewhere in the event o% )risis, )reating new institutions orstrengthening eAisting ones su)h as the 6hiang Mai &nitiative, whi)h )reates a networ# o% swa$ lines among 1sian)ountries3. 4he ris# is not imminent, but it is a long-run challenge to U*+* influenceand e%%e)tive global

governan)e. Be5ond the s$e)i%i) e)onomi)s, a strengthened &MF enhan)es global )risis resolution )a$a)it5,improving the global financial an# tra#e s(stems an# boosting U*+* influence abroa#. ".S. status as a leader o%&MF re%orm is also seriousl5 tarnished.4here are other $ie)es o% must/$ass legislation )oming u$, and the 9bama administration should )ommit to

reintrodu)ing the &MF legislation and s$ending the political capital to get it done. 1 strong bi$artisan $ush is

needed to get this legislation a)ross the %inish line.

4his causes Russian aggression- Ukraine crisis is ke(
http://www.reuters.com/places/ukraine?lc=int_mb_1001http://www.reuters.com/places/ukraine?lc=int_mb_1001http://www.reuters.com/finance/markets?lc=int_mb_1001http://www.reuters.com/finance/markets?lc=int_mb_1001http://www.reuters.com/finance/economy?lc=int_mb_1001http://www.reuters.com/finance/economy?lc=int_mb_1001http://www.reuters.com/finance/economy?lc=int_mb_1001http://www.reuters.com/finance/deals/bankruptcy?lc=int_mb_1001http://www.reuters.com/finance/deals/bankruptcy?lc=int_mb_1001http://www.reuters.com/finance/deals/bankruptcy?lc=int_mb_1001http://www.cfr.org/economics/global-economics-monthly-february-2014/p32318http://www.reuters.com/places/ukraine?lc=int_mb_1001http://www.reuters.com/finance/markets?lc=int_mb_1001http://www.reuters.com/finance/economy?lc=int_mb_1001http://www.reuters.com/finance/deals/bankruptcy?lc=int_mb_1001http://www.cfr.org/economics/global-economics-monthly-february-2014/p32318


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es #assage

9ipartisan support an# top :ouse Republicans will spee# up voting on the bill b( ne;t week

Reuters !-6".S. lawma#ers divided on Russia san)tions, e5e vote on "#raine aid,htt$'((www.reuters.)om(arti)le(*+-(+(+;(us/u#raine/)risis/usa/)ongress/id"SBR01*-*?*+-++;3Reuters3 / &n a rare show o% su$$ort %or residentBara)# 9bama, Re$ubli)an leaders in the ".S. ?ouse o%Re$resentatives said on Wednesda5 the5 would wor# with the White ?ouse to address the )risis in "#raine and voteon legislation o%%ering %inan)ial aid soon.?ouse MaIorit5 Leader 0ri) 6antor said the Re$ubli)an/led ?ouse will )onsider a = billion loan guarantee $a)#age%or "#raine and loo# at measures to


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4he "#raine )risis shows that !when 5ou have a $roblem an5where in the world, this is a tool %or the ".S. tores$ond, said 4ruman, now a senior %ellow at the eterson &nstitute %or &nternational 0)onomi)s in Washington.1dding &MF legislation to "#raine aid !would be something that )ould be negotiable, he said.


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8'raine- &M; ?eorm #ac'age :ey

,ann -.1" /Robert >ahn is the Steven 1. 4ananbaum senior %ellow %or international e)onomi)s at the

6oun)il on Foreign Relations 6FR3 in Washington, @.6. @r. >ahn has held $ositions in the $ubli) and $rivatese)tors, with an eA$ertise in ma)roe)onomi) $oli)5, %inan)e and )risis resolution, 0lobal conomics Monthl(2Februar( .1" htt$'((www.)%r.org(e)onomi)s(global/e)onomi)s/monthl5/%ebruar5/*+-($*39ottom


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4he ".S.s re%usal to $ass the re%ormswhi)h + )ountries have alread5 a$$rovedonl5 hurts our )redibilit5.Given the broad )onstituen)5 o% nations that want to hel$ "#raine, this wont sto$ the &MF %rom o%%ering a loan. Butits a bit ri)h %or the ".S. to )all %or &MF hel$ when it re%uses to $ass basi) re%orms that would have no materiale%%e)t on the "nited States and that most o% the world has alread5 a$$roved.!4he rest o% the world is %uriousat us, 4ed 4ruman, a senior %ellow at the eterson &nstitute %or &nternational0)onomi)s and the assistant se)retar5 o% the ".S. 4reasur5 %or &nternational 1%%airs %rom DD to *++, said. !For usto sa5, OWe Iust sti%%ed 5ou in Januar5 and now were turning around to tr5 to as# 5ou to be $art o% the team hel$ing"#raine, we loo# sill5.!&t does undermine our )redibilit5 and leadershi$, he added. !We loo# li#e were giving with our right hand andta#ing with our le%t hand.
http://www.ipsnews.net/2014/02/g20-urges-u-s-action-imf-reforms-april/http://www.ipsnews.net/2014/02/g20-urges-u-s-action-imf-reforms-april/http://www.ipsnews.net/2014/02/g20-urges-u-s-action-imf-reforms-april/


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/;;


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No IMF Reform

:ouse republicans will block IMF Reform

9usinessweek !-"Sandrine Rostello, !".S. Said to See# &MF Resour)e Boost in "#raine 1id a)#age,htt$'((www.businesswee#.)om(news(*+-/+/+-(u/dot/s/dot/said/to/see#/im%/resour)e/boost/in/u#raine/aid/$a)#age/34he 9bama administration will see# to in)lude legislation in)reasing &nternational Monetar5 Fund resour)es in anaid $a)#age the ".S. is $re$aring %or "#raine, a))ording to a 4reasur5 @e$artment o%%i)ial.4he 4reasur5 is $ushing %or the measure to su$$ort the &MF at a time when Grou$ o% Seven o%%i)ials want the lenderto ta#e a leading role in hel$ing bolster the %ledgling "#rainian government, a))ording to the o%%i)ial, who as#ed notto be named be)ause dis)ussions are $rivate. &t would ma#e good on a *++ international agreement to boost the".S.s share, or :uota, at the %und and raise the amount o% mone5 "#raine )an borrow %rom the global lender.!We are wor#ing with 6ongress to a$$rove the *++ &MF :uota legislation, whi)h would su$$ort the &MFs )a$a)it5to lend additional resour)es to "#raine, 4reasur5 Se)retar5 Ja)ob J. Lew said in a statement toda5 that $ledges =billion in loan guarantees to the )ountr5.4he administration now needs to gain su$$ort %rom ?ouse Re$ubli)ans, who in Januar5 re%used to in)lude the &MFmeasure in a s$ending bill. ?ouse MaIorit5 Leader 0ri) 6antor alread5 indi)ated an unwillingness to su$$ort a

"#rainian aid measure that in)luded &MF :uota )hanges.O@ivisive rovisions=I believe there is bipartisan support for such assistance but we must make sure it is #one responsibl( an#

an( legislation is not #ela(e# b( a##ing #ivisive provisions, he said in a statement 5esterda5.4he divisive $rovisions would in)lude &MF %unding, a))ording to a Re$ubli)an leadershi$ aide who as#ed %oranon5mit5 to )omment on $rivate dis)ussions."#raine %inds itsel% at the )enter o% the worst stando%% between Russia and the West sin)e the end o% the 6old War.1n &MF team o% e)onomists toda5 in >iev started assessing the )ountr5s needs to $re$are an assistan)e $a)#age %orthe transition government.4he ".S. is dela5ing im$lementation o% a *++ agreement b5 all &MF member )ountries to double the %unds lending)a$a)it5 to about = billion. 4he $a)#age would also give emerging mar#ets su)h as 6hina more )lout at theinstitution, whi)h was set u$ at the end o% World War && to hel$ ensure the stabilit5 o% the global monetar5 s5stem.

4oo important of a bargaining chip- :ouse republicans re>ect it

&+? !-""#raine 1id a)#age Resurre)ts @ebate 9ver &MF Funding,htt$'((blogs.wsI.)om(washwire(*+-(+(+-(u#raine/aid/$a)#age/resurre)ts/debate/over/im%/%unding(3"#raines )risis ma5 have bolstered the White ?ouses argument %or )ongressional a$$roval o% maIor )hanges at the&nternational Monetar5 Fund. But to$ Re$ubli)ans arent bu5ing it.4he 9bama administration sa5s )ongressional rati%i)ation o% )hanges to the &MFs stru)ture and %inan)es wouldsigni%i)antl5 boost the amount )ash o% >iev )an borrow %rom the &MF. While Re$ubli)ans largel5 ba)# ".S. aid %or"#raine, senior G9 lawma#ers are bal#ing at in)luding the &MF )hanges in a %inan)ing $a)#age %or the %ormerSoviet state.!& believe there is bi$artisan su$$ort %or su)h assistan)e, but we must ma#e sure it is done res$onsibl5 and an5legislation is not dela5ed b5 adding divisive $rovisions, ?ouse MaIorit5 Leader ric Cantor R., Ea.3 said.

"#raines e)onom5 is months awa5 %rom de%ault %ollowing 5ears o% mismanagement b5 %ormer governments.Lo)#ed in a geo$oliti)al )hess mat)h between Russia and the West, the )ountr5s $oliti)al )risis is a))elerating thee)onom5s demise.Washington aims to su$$lement an &MF bailout %or the $ro/western government in "#raine with its own %inan)ing$a)#age. 9ne o$tion &MF and Western o%%i)ials are )onsidering in)ludes short/term )redit lines to bu5 time %or$oliti)all5 tough negotiations over a large/s)ale bailout.B5 $assing the &MF re%orms, the ".S. 4reasur5 @e$artment estimates "#raine )ould ta$ =.K billion %rom the &MF,%ar more than the = billion in short/term emergen)5 loans it would re)eive under the eAisting &MF governan)e and%inan)ial stru)ture.


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6ongressional a$$roval is the last hurdle to )om$leting the *++ &MF re%orm agreement in#ed b5 members o% theinstitution. &t was designed to boost the %unds lending )a$a)it5 and give develo$ing )ountries more $ower at the&MF in $ro$ortion to their e)onomi) he%t. 4he &MF sa5s the hi#e in the %unds %inan)ial %ire$ower is needed to mat)hthe eA$anding global e)onom5. 4he ".S. and other )ountries argue the governan)e )hanges are ne)essar5 to ensurethe worlds e)onomi) adviser and last/)han)e lender retains its )redibilit5 and legitima)5.But man5 $ower%ul Re$ubli)ans, es$e)iall5 in the ?ouse o% Re$resentatives, o$$ose the )hanges and havesu))ess%ull5 blo)#ed the measures in re)ent 5ears. 4he &MF re%orm issue was one o% a host o% measures used as abargaining )hi$ in re)ent battles with @emo)rats on health )are and the budget. 4he administration is ho$ingresistan)e to the &MF re%orms might have waned sin)e the broader s$ending battle subsided.

Multiple reasons it will be blocke# b( Republicans

New Republic !-%Re$ubli)ans 1re la5ing oliti)s While "#raine Fa)es @e%ault,htt$'((www.newre$ubli).)om(arti)le(KD-(re$ubli)ans/are/blo)#ing/im%/re%orms/hel$/u#raine3With 6ongress read5 to bring u$ legislation %or a = billion loan that Se)retar5 o% State John >err5$ledged to"#raine on 4uesda5, the administration and &MF are ho$ing to use that bill as a vehi)le %or the &MF re%orms. Butdont get too eA)ited. @es$ite the %a)t that the re%orms do not in)rease ".S. %inan)ial obligations to the &MF, the6ongressional Budget 9%%i)e has s)ored it as in)reasing the de%i)it b5 =; million %or te)hni)al reasons. 4hatmeans it re:uires a$$ro$riations and Jenni%er ?ing, the )ommuni)ations dire)tor %or the ?ouse 1$$ro$riations6ommittee, tells me that the re%orms will not be in)luded in the legislation.Some Re$ubli)ans don7t )onsider the )ost o% the re%orms trivial.


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iev this wee# to dis)uss a $ossibleaid $rogram.But even as ".S. lawma#ers have urged the &MF to su$$ort "#raine, some have :uestioned broader )ontributions tothe %und. Some ?ouse Re$ubli)ans have raised )on)erns about the %und7s lending to ri)her 0uro$ean nations and the$ossibilit5 o% losses on &MF loans.1 @emo)rati) aide in the Senate said that )hamber was still de)iding whether to in)lude the &MF %unding in theirversion o% the "#raine $a)#age, but its absen)e %rom an5 ?ouse legislation would dim $ros$e)ts that it would %indits wa5 into a %inal )om$romise bill.

No go on the :ouse si#e

Reuters !-"!"#raine )ould borrow more i% &MF re%orms $assed' ".S.,

htt$'((arti)les.)hi)agotribune.)om(*+-/+/+-(news(sns/rt/us/u#raine/)risis/usa/aid/*+-++-PPim%/)risis/%und/im%/re%orms/im%/$rogram30dwin 4ruman, a senior 4reasur5 o%%i)ial under %ormer resident Bill 6linton, said several other &MF %undingre:uests were a$$roved in 6ongress during a $eriod o% )risis, su)h as the global %inan)ial )risis in *++D.


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the eA$anding global e)onom5. 4he ".S. and other )ountries argue the governan)e )hanges are ne)essar5 to ensurethe worlds e)onomi) adviser and last/)han)e lender retains its )redibilit5 and legitima)5.But man5 $ower%ul Re$ubli)ans, es$e)iall5 in the ?ouse o% Re$resentatives, o$$ose the )hanges and havesu))ess%ull5 blo)#ed the measures in re)ent 5ears. 4he &MF re%orm issue was one o% a host o% measures used as abargaining )hi$ in re)ent battles with @emo)rats on health )are and the budget. 4he administration is ho$ingresistan)e to the &MF re%orms might have waned sin)e the broader s$ending battle subsided.0nough in%luential Re$ubli)ans ma5 still obIe)t on $rin)i$le to the administrations e%%ort.Lawma#ers su)h as Re$. Cath( McMorris Ro#gers o% Washington state, )hairman o% the ?ouse Re$ubli)an6on%eren)e, :uestion the e%%i)a)5 o% the %unds lending and whether the &MF needs an5 more )ash.Re$. ?ohn Campbell R., 6ali%.3, )hairman o% the ?ouse sub)ommittee oversees the &MF, said lawma#ers have !anumber o% obIe)tions.Mr. 6am$bell said lawma#ers ma5 resurre)t an e%%ort to re$eal =++ billion in emergen)5 )ash the ".S. loaned the&MF in *++D to boost its lending )a$a)it5 in the de$ths o% the %inan)ial )risis.!& thin# we need to )law ba)# the Qemergen)5 %unds and this agreement, he said.


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&M; ?eorm No 'eyIMF reform not ke( to Ukraine crisis

CFR !-6Ben Steill and @inah Wal#er, !Lew @oes Cot Ceed &MF Re%orm to 1id "#raine,htt$'((blogs.)%r.org(geogra$hi)s(*+-(+(+;(u#raineaid(34he new $rovisional government in "#raine is see#ing =; billion in assistan)e %rom the &nternational Monetar5Fund. 4his would re$resent ++ o% the )ountr5s :uota with the Fund, added on to$ o% the loans it has alread5outstanding, amounting to *- o% its :uota.4he Fund allows members to borrow u$ to *++ o% their :uota annuall5 and K++ )umulativel5 through stand/b5and eAtended arrangements, so "#raine is )learl5 see#ing well in eA)ess o% this. ".S. 4reasur5 Se)retar5 Ja)# Lewhas )alled on 6ongress to ba)# &MF :uota re%orm,!whi)h would su$$ort the &MFs )a$a)it5 to lend additionalresour)es to "#raine.We wholeheartedl5 ba)# the &MF re%orm the administration see#s, but it is neither ne)essar5 nor desirable %or Lewto rat)het u$ this %ight with 6ongress now.4he &MF alread5 has )riteria %or allowing member )ountries to borrow be5ond the normal a))ess limits. 1ndindeed, as shown in the gra$hi) above, Gree)e, ortugal, and &reland are alread5 doing so.Lew #nows this. Sin)e "#raine should also meet the )riteria %or above/:uota borrowing, it is im$rudent o% himo$enl5 to :uestion the &MFs !)a$a)it5 to aid "#raine as a $reteAt %or shunting Re$ubli)ans into a)tion on broader&MF re%orm.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304709904579408990399518818http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304709904579408990399518818http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304709904579408990399518818http://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/tad/exfin2.aspx?memberKey1=993&date1key=2014-03-06https://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/quotas.htmhttp://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl2304.aspxhttp://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl2304.aspxhttp://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl2304.aspxhttps://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sd/index.asp?decision=14064-(08/18)http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304709904579408990399518818http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304709904579408990399518818http://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/tad/exfin2.aspx?memberKey1=993&date1key=2014-03-06https://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/quotas.htmhttp://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl2304.aspxhttp://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl2304.aspxhttps://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sd/index.asp?decision=14064-(08/18)


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No Immigration ReformNo chance of immigration reform

reiter, !4he &ssue' Uear o% a)tionN @oubt%ul.htt$'((www.u$i.)om(4o$PCews("S(*+-(+(+*(4he/&ssue/Uear/o%/a)tion/@oubt%ul("&/-D;*;-+(3Sen. Mar)o Rubio, R/Fla., $ossible *+K $residential ho$e%ul, said in a 6CC interview )om$rehensive immigrationre%orm is unli#el5.


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;ecutive Powers +olve

@bama will use e;ecutive powers to halt #eportations

4he :ill !-%!@ems to 9bama' Slow the de$ortations, htt$'((thehill.)om(homenews(senate(*+++KK/dems/to/obama/slow/the/de$ortations3resident 9bama is )oming under in)reasing $ressure to slow de$ortations o% illegal immigrants, while 6ongressremains st5mied on immigration re%orm legislation.ressure is now )oming %rom the Senate, where three senior members o% the @emo)rati) )au)us sa5 9bama shouldhalt de$ortations o% illegal immigrants who are immediatel5 related to )itiHens or $ermanent legal residents.1@E0R4&S0M0C4Sen. Robert MenendeH C.J.3, the onl5 ?is$ani) member o% the Senate @emo)rati) )au)us, led the )harge this wee#,when he )alled on 9bama 4uesda5 to ta#e eAe)utive a)tion to sto$ de$ortation o% illegal immigrants with strong%amil5 ties to the "nited States.9n Wednesda5, Sens. @i)# @urbin &ll.3, the se)ond/ran#ing member o% the Senate @emo)rati) leadershi$, and 4om?ar#in @/&owa3 ba)#ed MenendeH.!While we )ontinue waiting %or the ?ouse o% Re$resentatives to wa#e u$ and move on immigration re%ormlegislation, & urge the $resident to ta#e a)tion toda5 and halt needless de$ortations that are s$litting a$art our%amilies and )ommunities, MenendeH said at the Cational 6oun)il o% La RaHas *+- 6a$ital 1wards dinner.

MenendeH is an in%luential voi)e on immigration re%orm within the Senate @emo)rati) )au)us, and he )o/authoredthe )om$rehensive re%orm bill Senate @emo)rats voted %or unanimousl5 last 5ear.When as#ed i% he ba)#s MenendeH, @urbin said, !& do.@urbin, another )o/author o% the Senate bill, said the $light o% illegal immigrants %a)ing de$ortation is!heartbrea#ing.!?aving sat there at those detention %a)ilities and seen the )r5ing mothers and babies o% these $eo$le who are good,hardwor#ing individuals de$orted stri)tl5 be)ause o% an immigration violation no )riminal violation it isheartbrea#ing, he said. !& want to see it )ome to an end.@urbin added the best solution to the $roblem would be i% S$ea#er John Boehner R/9hio3 s)heduled a vote on theSenate bill.When told

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