8
Equity Research Thursday, December 08, 2016 Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research MARKET NEWS *Analysts’ comment inside Automotive: domestic car sales indicated to increase by 7.8% mom to 99,000 units in November 2016* Revised slaughterhouse regulation in the poultry industry* LPPF plans 6 new store openings in 2017* WSBP booked new contracts of Rp7.9tr in 11M16* SMRA records Rp2.7tn of marketing sales in 11M16* BI: further repo rate cut unlikely in 2017 Forex reserves drop USD3.5bn on rupiah intervention BKPM to issue regulation No.8/2016 to accelerate investment E-commerce has a positive impact on logistics companies The sales target for Harbolnas is around Rp6.3tn this year Acset Indonusa: targets 28.6% yoy higher new contracts of Rp4.5tn in 2017 BMRI distributes Rp7.84 tn of loans to the port sector DILD aims for Rp1.5tn of marketing sales in 2017 Previous Reports: Strategy: Peaceful rally = return confidence -Snapshot20161205 MPPA: Ongoing recovery, CTRA: to delay its EGM given FSA’s requirement to conduct a cash offering -Snapshot20161202 BMRI: The last shot, SMGR: Neutral impact from acquisition- Snapshot20161201 November 2016 Inflation Outlook: To Remain Soft- Snapshot20161130 Property Sector: Recovery in sight- Snapshot20161128 LPPF: Issues on the corporate governance- Snapshot20161125 UNTR: Better Komatsu sales volume in October 2016- Snapshot20161124 IDX ANNOUNCEMENT AGM EGM Announcement Code Action Date Time (WIB) MREI EGM 8-Dec-16 --.-- ARII EGM 9-Dec-16 --.-- HRUM EGM 9-Dec-16 14.00 BNLI EGM 13-Dec-16 14.00 PNBN EGM 13-Dec-16 14.00 MORNING HIGHLIGHT Key Index Close Chg Ytd Vol (%) (%) (US$ m) Asean - 5 Indonesia 5,265 (0.1) 14.6 359 Thailand 1,521 0.3 18.1 1,264 Philippines 6,867 0.9 (1.2) 97 Malaysia 1,632 0.2 (3.5) 351 Singapore 2,960 0.4 2.7 797 Regional China 3,222 0.7 (9.0) 35,553 Hong Kong 22,801 0.6 4.0 8,109 Japan 18,497 0.7 (2.8) 15,427 Korea 2,012 1.0 2.6 3,271 Taiwan 9,264 0.1 11.1 2,046 India 26,237 (0.6) 0.5 377 NASDAQ 5,394 1.1 7.7 81,605 Dow Jones 19,550 1.5 12.2 9,790 Currency and Interest Rate Rate w-w m-m ytd (%) (%) (%) Rupiah Rp/1US$ 13,333 1.6 (1.9) 3.3 SBI rate % 5.90 - (0.3) (1.3) 10y Gov Indo bond 7.71 (0.4) 0.5 (1.0) Hard Commodities Unit Price d-d m-m ytd (%) (%) (%) Coal US$/ton 83 (1.2) (25.9) 64.0 Gold US$/toz 1,175 0.1 (7.9) 10.7 Nickel US$/mt.ton 11,362 (1.8) 2.5 29.4 Tin US$/mt.ton 21,236 (0.3) (3.3) 45.5 Soft Commodities Unit Price d-d m-m ytd (%) (%) (%) Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,377 (0.9) (8.2) (27.3) Corn US$/mt.ton 131 0.8 3.0 (2.5) Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 50 0.4 11.1 34.9 Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 53 (1.7) 14.8 42.2 Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 3,202 0.2 14.6 45.5 Rubber USd/kg 177 2.8 15.3 50.6 Pulp US$/tonne 809 N/A 0.0 0.7 Coffee US$/60kgbag 140 0.8 (11.5) 28.8 Sugar US$/MT 520 (0.0) (10.5) 23.1 Wheat US$/ton 109 (1.4) (6.3) (22.8)

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Page 1: Thursday, December 08, 2016 - Danareksa Online

Equity Research

Thursday, December 08, 2016

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research

MARKET NEWS

*Analysts’ comment inside

Automotive: domestic car sales indicated to increase by 7.8% mom to 99,000 units in November 2016*

Revised slaughterhouse regulation in the poultry industry* LPPF plans 6 new store openings in 2017* WSBP booked new contracts of Rp7.9tr in 11M16* SMRA records Rp2.7tn of marketing sales in 11M16* BI: further repo rate cut unlikely in 2017 Forex reserves drop USD3.5bn on rupiah intervention BKPM to issue regulation No.8/2016 to accelerate investment E-commerce has a positive impact on logistics companies The sales target for Harbolnas is around Rp6.3tn this year Acset Indonusa: targets 28.6% yoy higher new contracts of Rp4.5tn in

2017 BMRI distributes Rp7.84 tn of loans to the port sector DILD aims for Rp1.5tn of marketing sales in 2017

Previous Reports:

Strategy: Peaceful rally = return confidence -Snapshot20161205 MPPA: Ongoing recovery, CTRA: to delay its EGM given FSA’s

requirement to conduct a cash offering -Snapshot20161202 BMRI: The last shot, SMGR: Neutral impact from acquisition-

Snapshot20161201 November 2016 Inflation Outlook: To Remain Soft- Snapshot20161130 Property Sector: Recovery in sight- Snapshot20161128 LPPF: Issues on the corporate governance- Snapshot20161125 UNTR: Better Komatsu sales volume in October 2016-

Snapshot20161124

IDX ANNOUNCEMENT

AGM EGM Announcement

Code Action Date Time (WIB)

MREI EGM 8-Dec-16 --.--

ARII EGM 9-Dec-16 --.--

HRUM EGM 9-Dec-16 14.00

BNLI EGM 13-Dec-16 14.00

PNBN EGM 13-Dec-16 14.00

MORNING HIGHLIGHT

Key Index

Close

Chg Ytd Vol

(%) (%) (US$ m)

Asean - 5

Indonesia 5,265 (0.1) 14.6 359

Thailand 1,521 0.3 18.1 1,264

Philippines 6,867 0.9 (1.2) 97

Malaysia 1,632 0.2 (3.5) 351

Singapore 2,960 0.4 2.7 797

Regional

China 3,222 0.7 (9.0) 35,553

Hong Kong 22,801 0.6 4.0 8,109

Japan 18,497 0.7 (2.8) 15,427

Korea 2,012 1.0 2.6 3,271

Taiwan 9,264 0.1 11.1 2,046

India 26,237 (0.6) 0.5 377

NASDAQ 5,394 1.1 7.7 81,605

Dow Jones 19,550 1.5 12.2 9,790

Currency and Interest Rate

Rate

w-w m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Rupiah Rp/1US$ 13,333 1.6 (1.9) 3.3

SBI rate % 5.90 - (0.3) (1.3)

10y Gov Indo bond 7.71 (0.4) 0.5 (1.0)

Hard Commodities

Unit Price

d-d m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Coal US$/ton 83 (1.2) (25.9) 64.0

Gold US$/toz 1,175 0.1 (7.9) 10.7

Nickel US$/mt.ton 11,362 (1.8) 2.5 29.4

Tin US$/mt.ton 21,236 (0.3) (3.3) 45.5

Soft Commodities

Unit Price

d-d m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,377 (0.9) (8.2) (27.3)

Corn US$/mt.ton 131 0.8 3.0 (2.5)

Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 50 0.4 11.1 34.9

Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 53 (1.7) 14.8 42.2

Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 3,202 0.2 14.6 45.5

Rubber USd/kg 177 2.8 15.3 50.6

Pulp US$/tonne 809 N/A 0.0 0.7

Coffee US$/60kgbag 140 0.8 (11.5) 28.8

Sugar US$/MT 520 (0.0) (10.5) 23.1

Wheat US$/ton 109 (1.4) (6.3) (22.8)

Source: Bloomberg

Page 2: Thursday, December 08, 2016 - Danareksa Online

Equity Research

Thursday, December 08, 2016

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research

PT Danareksa Sekuritas

Jl. Medan Merdeka Selatan No. 14 Jakarta 10110 Indonesia Tel (62 21) 29 555 888 Fax (62 21) 350 1709

Equity Research Team

Sales team

[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3128

Novrita E. Putrianti [email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3132

Ehrliech Suhartono

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3513 Construction

Maria Renata

[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3145

Yunita L. Nababan

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3512 Technical Analyst

Lucky Bayu Purnomo

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5824 Consumer

Puti Adani

[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3125

Laksmita Armandani

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3504 Cement, Property

Antonia Febe Hartono

[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3109

Muhammad Hardiansyah

[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3121

Tuty Sutopo

[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3137

Upik Yuzarni

[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3139

Kevin Giarto

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5831 Auto, Coal, Heavy Equip., Metal, Cement

Stefanus Darmagiri

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3508 Consumer, Tobacco, Property

Natalia Sutanto

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3500 Strategy, Banking

Agus Pramono, CFA

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 ext. 3503 Retail

Adeline Solaiman

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 888 ext. 3506 Research Associate

Melati Laksmindra Isnandari

Page 3: Thursday, December 08, 2016 - Danareksa Online

Equity Research

Thursday, December 08, 2016

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research

Automotive: domestic car sales indicated to increase by 7.8% mom to 99,000 units in November 2016

Domestic car sales are indicated to increase by 7.8% mom to 99,000 units in November 2016, or higher than the previous month’s sales of 91,846 units. Hence, on a cumulative basis, domestic car sales would reach 973,703 units in 11M16 (up 3.6% yoy). Gaikindo (the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association) targets domestic car sales to increase by 4.0% yoy to 1.05mn units. (Bisnis Indonesia) Comment: The indicated domestic car sales in 11M16 are within our expectation, reaching 92% of our full year forecast. For

2017, we expect domestic car sales to grow by around 5% yoy to 1.1mn units backed by expectations of better economic

growth. (Stefanus Darmagiri)

Revised slaughterhouse regulation in the poultry industry

Based on the recent revised government regulation No. 26, 2016, poultry companies that regularly produce 300,000 livebirds (previously 500,000 livebirds) need to have a slaughterhouse. This revised regulation will be implemented starting in January 2017. Comment: This revised regulation should have a minimal impact on the major integrated poultry companies such as Charoen

Pokphand (CPIN), Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA), and Malindo Feedmill (MAIN) as they already have slaughterhouses.

(Adeline Solaiman)

LPPF plans 6 new store openings in 2017

Matahari Department Store (LPPF) plans to open 6 new stores in 2017, according to the Director of Merchandising and Marketing, Christian Kurnia. Each store requires approximately Rp20-30bn; hence the total capex for store expansion will be around Rp 120-240bn next year, funded from internal cash. (Kontan) Comment: We also forecast 6 new store openings next year, translating into around 10% yoy growth. Despite that, we

currently have a SELL recommendation on LPPF, given concerns on corporate governance. (Adeline Solaiman)

WSBP booked new contracts of Rp7.9tr in 11M16

Waskita Beton Precast (WSBP) booked new contracts of Rp8.1tr as of November 2016, or above the management’s full year target of Rp7.9tr. The major contracts include the Cimanggis – Cibitung toll road worth Rp2.3tr, the Pasuruan – Probolinggo toll road worth Rp500bn, the Pemalang – Batang toll road worth Rp1.5tr, the Batang – Semarang toll road worth Rp500bn, and the Palembang LRT worth Rp1.0tr. WSBP has allocated Rp1.9tr for 2017’s capex, which will be used for the development of new plants in Kalimantan and North Sumatra, which will be funded from IPO proceeds and bank loans. For 2017, WSBP is targeting 50%yoy growth in new contracts to reach Rp12.0tr. (Bisnis Indonesia) Comment: The WSBP new contracts achievement in 11M16 has surpassed our full year 2016 target of Rp7.7tr, or by 5.5%.

We are reviewing our forecast considering that we target 2017 new contracts of Rp8.3tr or 30.8% lower than the

management’s target. We currently have a BUY call on WSBP with a TP of Rp770. (Maria Renata)

SMRA records Rp2.7tn of marketing sales in 11M16

Summarecon Agung has recorded marketing sales of Rp2.7tn in 11M16, down by 14.2% yoy. This figure is 91.7% of the company’s revised marketing sales target for this year of Rp3tn and 85.6% of our marketing sales target of Rp3.2tn. (Company) Comment: Given the company’s plans to delay the launch of Summarecon Karawang, we believe that SMRA may rely on land plot sales to achieve its target this year. Currently, the company is exploring the possibility of selling commercial land plots in Serpong and Bekasi. We don’t think our marketing sales target is now achievable, believing Rp3tn is a more realistic target. We are reviewing our numbers and recommendation for SMRA. (Antonia)

MARKET NEWS

Page 4: Thursday, December 08, 2016 - Danareksa Online

Equity Research

Thursday, December 08, 2016

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research

BI: further repo rate cut unlikely in 2017

Bank Indonesia (BI) has signalled that it will shift away from its loose monetary policy as the US Fed Funds Rate is set to be raised. Mirza Adityaswara said that this did not mean the CB would directly adopt tight monetary policy, highlighting that BI would always prepare to provide liquidity to the market. Currently, BI offers longer swap transactions for banks to maintain liquidity in the market. He further suggested that banks do not increase deposit rates. A director of Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI) stated that the bank would focus more on liquidity to boost loans growth. The bank estimates its loans growth will reach 16-17% in 2016. Should its liquidity improve, the bank expects to see higher loans growth. Meanwhile, a director of Bank Central Asia (BBCA) stated that the bank had sufficient liquidity given increasing third party funds coupled with weak demand for loans. (The Jakarta Post, Investor Daily) Forex reserves drop USD3.5bn on rupiah intervention

Indonesia’s forex reserves fell by USD3.5bn in October 2016 following BI intervention to stabilize the exchange rate. BI announced that forex reserves stood at USD111.5bn at the end of November 2016. This amount is still sufficient to fund 8.5 months of imports and 8.1 months of imports and government foreign debt repayments. (The Jakarta Post) BKPM to issue regulation No.8/2016 to accelerate investment

The Indonesian Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) issued regulation No. 8/2016 to accelerate investment. This is part of BKPM’s commitment to supporting the tax amnesty program. So far, only one of the tax amnesty participants has used the three-hours licensing service. Under this regulation, BKPM accelerates the procedures required for individual investors. Nevertheless, the investors need to enclose the tax amnesty certificates. (Investor Daily) E-commerce has a positive impact on logistics companies

Based on an Asperindo survey, the revenues growth of logistics companies, such as Citra Vaan Titipan Kilat (TIKI) and SAP Express, has been around 5% yoy in the past. However, the survey reveals that the acceleration of e-commerce in the country will push sales growth of logistics companies up to 10-20% yoy in 2017. (Kontan) The sales target for Harbolnas is around Rp6.3tn this year

This year, the number of participants in Harbolnas (Dec 12-14, 2016) has increased by 48.6% yoy (211 online retailers) compared to the same period last year, according to Miranda Suwanto, the Head of Harbolnas. The sales target for Harbolans this year is around Rp 6.3tn (2015: Rp2.1tn) (Kontan) Acset Indonusa: targets 28.6% yoy higher new contracts of Rp4.5tn in 2017

Acset Indonusia (ACST) is targeting 28.6% yoy higher new contracts of Rp4.5tn in 2017, up from this year’s target of Rp3.5tn. In order to achieve the target, ACST plans to seek new contracts from the group, Astra International (ASII) and from third parties which focus on infrastructure projects. The company plans to spend capex of Rp100 – 110bn in 2017, which is similar to this year’s capex of Rp100bn. As of October 2016, ACST managed to book new contracts of Rp2.5tn, mostly for high rise buildings. (Kontan) BMRI distributes Rp7.84 tn of loans to the port sector

As of October 2016, BMRI had distributed Rp7.84 tn of loans to the port sector, or up 72% yoy. The port projects are

Terminal Petikemas Belawan Fase 2, Terminal multipurpose Kuala Tanjung, and Makassar New Port. BMRI has also provided

working capital loans for Pelindo II and special transaction loans for Pelindo III. For the collection system, BMRI uses bill

collection, EDC closed payments, Mandiri Debit Co-brand Cards, and Mandiri auto debit. BMRI will also provide e-port cards

as the access card to enter the port. BMRI was also appointed to provide the Integrated Billing System (IBS) in Pelindo I-IV.

(Investor Daily)

Page 5: Thursday, December 08, 2016 - Danareksa Online

Equity Research

Thursday, December 08, 2016

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research

DILD aims for Rp1.5tn of marketing sales in 2017

Intiland Development (DILD) aims for marketing sales of Rp1.5tn in 2017, supported by projects in Surabaya. This is 36% higher than 2016’s targeted marketing sales of Rp1.1tn (YTD: Rp1tn). The management stated that marketing sales in 2017 would be supported by the extension of existing projects (The Rosebay and Graha Golf apartments) as well as new projects. DILD plans to launch two apartment blocks in Rosebay (previously the company launched five blocks with a 77% take-up rate) and one tower apartment in Graha Golf (the take-up rate for previous apartment towers stood at 100% and 90%). Prices for the apartments in Graha Golf are Rp8-9bn per unit and have floor space of Rp170sqm. The company plans to launch two new projects. One of them is a mixed use project in Dharmo. The company plans to launch an apartment (with prices below Rp1bn per unit) and offices in the area. The company has 7ha of land bank in the area. (Bisnis Indonesia)

Page 6: Thursday, December 08, 2016 - Danareksa Online

Price Mkt Cap

Target Rp Bn 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2016

Danareksa Universe 3,067,120 150,667 176,605 244.1 286.1 3% 17% 20.4 17.4 23.3 20.9 2.8 2.6 14.9

Auto 314,760 15,508 18,375 311.9 369.5 7% 18% 20.3 17.1 14.8 12.6 2.3 2.1 11.7

Astra International HOLD 7,775 8,400 314,760 15,508 18,375 383 454 360 435 7% 18% 20.3 17.1 14.8 12.6 2.3 2.1 27.1 11.7

Banks 1,011,593 74,614 91,514 732.3 898.1 0% 23% 13.6 11.1 2.0 1.7 16.2

BCA HOLD 14,650 16,300 361,196 18,931 20,806 768 844 768 844 5% 10% 19.1 17.4 N/A N/A 3.5 3.0 N/A 19.6

BNI HOLD 5,350 6,100 99,770 10,494 13,698 563 735 563 735 16% 31% 9.5 7.3 N/A N/A 1.1 1.0 N/A 12.7

BRI BUY 11,425 14,500 281,845 26,092 31,100 1,058 1,261 1,058 1,261 3% 19% 10.8 9.1 N/A N/A 1.9 1.7 N/A 20.1

Bank Tabungan Negara BUY 1,805 2,300 19,115 2,200 2,572 208 243 208 243 19% 17% 8.7 7.4 N/A N/A 1.0 0.8 N/A 13.6

Bank Mandiri HOLD 10,700 11,250 249,667 16,898 23,339 724 1,000 724 1,000 -17% 38% 14.8 10.7 N/A N/A 1.6 1.4 N/A 12.4

Cement 139,868 7,891 5,869 406 302 -15% -26% 17.7 23.8 11.2 12.0 2.5 2.4 14.4

Indocement SELL 15,875 14,600 58,440 3,863 2,808 1,049 763 1,042 757 -11% -27% 15.1 20.8 10.6 11.0 2.3 2.2 net cash 15.8

Semen Indonesia SELL 9,250 8,100 54,867 3,792 2,958 639 499 633 492 -16% -22% 14.5 18.5 8.5 9.5 1.9 1.8 6.1 13.8

Semen Baturaja SELL 2,700 400 26,562 236 103 24 11 24 11 -33% -56% 112.3 256.7 65.1 51.1 8.5 8.3 net cash 7.8

Cigarettes 585,388 18,145 19,608 153 166 8% 8% 32.3 29.9 21.8 20.1 8.0 7.4 25.4

Gudang Garam HOLD 65,450 70,400 125,932 6,342 6,860 3,296 3,565 3,296 3,565 -1% 8% 19.9 18.4 12.3 11.4 3.2 2.8 46.6 16.4

HM Sampoerna HOLD 3,950 3,850 459,456 11,803 12,749 101 110 101 109 14% 8% 38.9 36.0 28.9 26.3 13.7 13.4 net cash 36.1

Construction 132,695 6,602 8,166 91 112 36% 24% 20.1 16.2 11.1 9.4 2.7 2.3 15.3

Wijaya Karya BUY 2,380 4,300 21,348 758 900 123 146 123 146 21% 19% 19.3 16.3 10.6 8.7 4.3 3.7 24.6 16.2

Pembangunan Perumahan BUY 3,970 5,700 19,224 967 1,295 200 267 211 298 31% 34% 19.9 14.8 9.4 7.2 3.7 3.1 net cash 20.2

Adhi Karya BUY 1,875 3,500 6,677 703 986 208 292 216 303 52% 40% 9.0 6.4 4.9 3.8 1.0 0.8 net cash 12.2

Waskita Karya BUY 2,480 3,700 33,662 1,688 2,344 124 173 124 173 61% 39% 19.9 14.4 14.4 10.2 3.1 2.6 20.2 16.4

Waskita Beton BUY 570 770 15,026 547 788 21 30 21 30 64% 44% 27.5 19.1 16.2 12.4 2.1 2.0 net cash 13.1

Wika Beton BUY 835 1,300 7,277 268 362 31 42 31 42 54% 35% 27.1 20.1 14.7 10.6 3.0 2.7 net cash 11.5

Jasa Marga BUY 4,330 5,700 29,480 1,671 1,492 246 219 249 223 14% -11% 17.6 19.7 10.6 11.7 2.5 2.3 143.1 15.0

Consumer 420,577 10,506 12,110 507 584 15% 15% 40.0 34.7 28.3 24.5 17.7 17.0 45.0

Indofood CBP BUY 8,675 10,850 101,167 3,714 4,293 319 368 319 368 24% 16% 27.2 23.6 19.1 16.6 6.1 6.0 net cash 22.5

Unilever HOLD 41,325 46,650 315,310 6,563 7,555 860 990 860 990 12% 15% 48.0 41.7 34.1 29.6 60.4 54.6 28.9 130.6

Kino Indonesia BUY 2,870 4,500 4,100 229 262 160 183 160 183 -32% 14% 17.9 15.7 10.3 9.5 2.1 1.9 3.9 12.3

Healthcare 89,423 2,490 2,743 97 106 11% 9% 35.9 32.6 23.1 20.6 6.5 5.7 19.0

Kalbe Farma SELL 1,570 1,400 73,594 2,210 2,441 47 52 47 52 10% 10% 33.3 30.2 21.2 19.1 6.3 5.5 net cash 19.9

Kimia Farma SELL 2,850 1,510 15,829 279 302 50 54 48 52 12% 8% 56.7 52.4 38.2 31.8 7.7 6.8 33.7 14.3

Heavy Equipment 85,886 4,481 5,676 1,201 1,522 16% 27% 19.2 15.1 6.9 5.4 2.2 2.0 12.0

Hexindo Adiperkasa

United Tractors HOLD 23,025 23,500 85,886 4,481 5,676 1,201 1,522 1,231 1,556 16% 27% 19.2 15.1 6.9 5.4 2.2 2.0 net cash 12.0

Mining 175,083 4,311 5,355 54 67 1% 24% 40.6 32.7 10.6 9.6 1.6 1.6 3.9

Adaro Energy HOLD 1,710 800 54,696 1,781 1,980 56 62 56 62 -13% 11% 30.7 27.6 7.6 7.0 1.4 1.4 18.9 4.6

Timah HOLD 1,300 590 9,682 180 196 24 26 24 26 78% 9% 53.8 49.3 12.8 11.8 1.8 1.7 26.0 3.3

Vale Indonesia HOLD 3,370 2,800 33,485 222 480 22 48 22 48 -67% 116% 150.7 69.7 14.1 12.1 1.4 1.4 net cash 0.9

Aneka Tambang HOLD 960 650 23,070 (307) (147) (13) (6) (13) (6) -79% -52% (75.2) (156.6) 29.8 26.1 1.3 1.3 18.0 (1.7)

Bukit Asam BUY 12,775 8,800 29,435 1,610 1,834 741 844 741 844 -21% 14% 17.2 15.1 12.4 10.5 2.9 2.6 net cash 16.7

Indo Tambangraya Megah HOLD 16,250 8,400 18,361 947 1,106 838 979 838 979 14% 17% 19.4 16.6 6.1 5.4 1.6 1.6 net cash 8.4

Harum Energy HOLD 2,350 790 6,354 (123) (95) (45) (35) (45) (35) -540% -22% (51.9) (66.7) 54.4- 66.6- 1.7 1.8 net cash (3.2)

Property 116,163 5,172 6,045 44 52 -16% 17% 22.5 19.2 13.3 12.8 1.8 1.6 8.4

Alam Sutera HOLD 378 380 7,427 820 924 42 47 53 52 38% 13% 9.1 8.0 9.8 10.1 0.4 0.3 33.2 4.2

Bumi Serpong Damai BUY 1,835 2,500 35,318 1,859 2,009 97 104 139 146 -13% 8% 19.0 17.6 12.4 12.1 1.7 1.6 11.5 9.5

Ciputra Development BUY 1,360 1,850 20,978 661 998 43 54 38 45 -38% 26% 31.8 25.3 13.0 12.6 2.4 1.6 42.2 7.7

Pakuwon Jati HOLD 650 700 31,304 1,757 2,019 36 42 34 39 39% 15% 17.8 15.5 13.1 11.9 3.5 2.9 29.6 21.8

Summarecon BUY 1,465 1,600 21,135 75 95 5 7 14 19 -91% 27% 280.9 222.0 19.9 18.9 3.6 3.5 92.8 1.3

Retail 85,107 3,435 3,888 100 114 17% 13% 24.8 21.9 14.4 12.9 5.9 5.5 25.2

Mitra Adi Perkasa HOLD 5,275 5,000 8,757 174 267 108 166 107 165 370% 54% 48.8 31.8 10.1 9.2 2.9 2.8 99.8 5.8

Ramayana BUY 1,150 1,350 8,160 396 468 56 66 54 64 18% 18% 20.5 17.3 15.1 13.3 2.3 2.2 net cash 11.6

Matahari Department Store SELL 15,200 12,000 44,352 2,080 2,370 707 805 704 803 16% 14% 21.5 18.9 15.0 13.0 21.6 18.2 net cash 131.7

Matahari Putra Prima HOLD 1,690 1,700 9,089 129 185 24 34 29 40 -30% 44% 70.7 49.1 16.1 13.8 3.1 2.9 net cash 4.5

Ace Hardware SELL 860 750 14,749 656 598 37 35 38 34 7% -5% 23.2 24.5 17.2 17.4 5.1 4.6 net cash 23.7

Equity

Valuation Rating Price (Rp) Net profit, Rp bn EPS (Rp) EPS Growth PER (x)Core EPS (Rp) EV / EBITDA (x) PBV (x) ROENet Gearing

Page 7: Thursday, December 08, 2016 - Danareksa Online

Equity Research

Thursday, December 08, 2016

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research

LEADERS Price as on

Code 7-Dec-2016 6-Dec-2016 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating

Semen Baturaja SMBR 2,700 2,560 5.5 4.2 32.4 827.8 SELL

Matahari Department Store LPPF 15,200 14,700 3.4 5.6 (7.9) (13.6) SELL

Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN 1,805 1,760 2.6 9.4 (6.0) 39.4 BUY

Mitra Adi Perkasa MAPI 5,275 5,175 1.9 - (7.0) 39.0 HOLD

Timah TINS 1,300 1,280 1.6 7.9 7.4 157.4 HOLD

Kino Indonesia KINO 2,870 2,840 1.1 4.4 (14.3) (25.3) BUY

Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI 11,425 11,325 0.9 4.8 (11.3) - BUY

HM Sampoerna HMSP 3,950 3,920 0.8 3.9 (2.9) 5.1 HOLD

Jasa Marga JSMR 4,330 4,300 0.7 4.3 (4.0) (16.9) BUY

Bank Mandiri BMRI 10,700 10,650 0.5 1.9 (7.6) 15.7 HOLD

Sources: Bloomberg

LAGGARDS Price as on

Code 7-Dec-2016 6-Dec-2016 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating

Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 16,250 16,750 (3.0) 1.6 (1.5) 183.8 HOLD

Pakuwon Jati PWON 650 670 (3.0) (5.1) (9.7) 31.0 HOLD

Gudang Garam GGRM 65,450 67,450 (3.0) 0.7 (3.7) 19.0 HOLD

Bukit Asam PTBA 12,775 13,050 (2.1) 8.3 (0.8) 182.3 BUY

Wika Beton WTON 835 850 (1.8) 3.7 (4.0) 1.2 BUY

Ramayana RALS 1,150 1,170 (1.7) (3.4) (12.2) 78.3 BUY

Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE 1,835 1,865 (1.6) 7.9 (13.4) 1.9 BUY

Harum Energy HRUM 2,350 2,380 (1.3) 8.8 (4.9) 248.1 HOLD

Adaro Energy ADRO 1,710 1,730 (1.2) 11.8 4.9 232.0 HOLD

Ace Hardware ACES 860 870 (1.1) (0.6) (0.6) 4.2 SELL

Sources: Bloomberg

COVERAGE PERFORMANCE

Page 8: Thursday, December 08, 2016 - Danareksa Online

Equity Research

Thursday, December 08, 2016

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research

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