Three issues for reflection On size/magnitude

How much (“knowledge ‘products’) do we produce AND how likely is it that we will be able either to maintain current production or even increase it?

On shapeWhat factors determine the shape, the ways in which

knowledge is “distributed” in our higher education system and how likely is it that this will change over the next decade?

On stratificationWho (race and age) produces the bulk of our knowledge

and is this likely to change significantly over the next decade?

The size of knowledge production

Some basic facts on size As far as research output in scientific journals is

concerned, the HE sector is the dominant sector in the national system of innovation. In 2007, academics produced 86% of all ISI-papers with a South African address.

In the same year, the sector also produced 1274 PhD’s and 7516 Masters graduates (of which 3442 were recognized by the Department of Education as “research Masters students).

The higher education sector remains the sanctuary of basic research with 42% of all research in the sector classified as such in 2005/6 (the comparable proportion for research in government and science councils is slightly more than 25% with applied research and experimental development constituting the rest).

Output of article equivalents: 1987 - 2008

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Output of article equivalents: 1987 - 2007

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

R77kR85k

R102k

R22k

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Masters 5795 6426 6871 7396 7536 7881 7883 7516

Research Masters

3442 3779

Doctorates 823 843 981 1031 1087 1176 1100 1274 1182

Production of research Masters and Doctoral graduates

Trends in doctoral first enrolments (2000 – 2007)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20070

500100015002000250030003500

1 1

18972122

2480 2519 2693 26922916

2684

Conclusions on size There is every indication that knowledge output (as

measured in terms of article production) may have reached a plateau at around 7 500 article equivalents per year (which constitutes about 0.4% of total world science production as measured in WoS journals).

Knowledge production as measured in terms of doctoral output has also flattened of and is now hovering at about 1200 PhD’s per year. Given the recent decline in first doctoral enrolments it is unlikely that we will be able to escalate our PhD production unless we adress a number of systemic constraints such as the size of the pipeline from Honnours onwards and the limited supervisory capacity in the system.

On the shape of knowledge production

Comments on shape

We define shape of knowledge production in three terms: How knowledge output is distributed

across the 23 universities How knowledge output is distributed

across different scientific fields by institution

How knowledge outputs are distributed differently across scientific journals (specifically ISI- versus non-ISI) by institution

Distribution of institutional contributions to the knowledgebase

Rank  University Average weighted output 2007 – 2008

Share of output (%)

Cluster Cumulative percentage

1 PRETORIA 2180.4 14.2

1[> 10%]

14.22 CAPE TOWN 1859.1 12.1 26.33 STELLENBOSCH 1745.7 11.4 37.74 KWAZULU-NATAL 1637.7 10.7 48.45 WITWATERSRAND 1555.3 10.1 58.56 NORTH WEST 1072.2 7.0

2[3 – 10%]

65.57 SOUTH AFRICA 938.4 6.1 71.68 FREE STATE 849.6 5.5 77.1

9 JOHANNESBURG 821.8 5.4 82.510 RHODES 544.0 3.5 86.011 NELSON MANDELA 470.8 3.1 89.112 WESTERN CAPE 465.1 3.0 92.113 TSHWANE UT 250.7 1.6

3[>0.5 <3%]

93.714 LIMPOPO 239.0 1.6 95.315 FORT HARE 152.9 1.0 96.316 CAPE PENINSULA UT 151.4 1.0 97.317 ZULULAND 134.9 0.9 98.218 VENDA 75.7 0.5

4[0.5% and

less]

98.719 CENTRAL UT 72.1 0.5 99.220 DURBAN UT 72.0 0.5 99.721 VAAL UT 36.2 0.2 99.922 WALTER SISULU 20.7 0.1 100.023 MANGOSUTHU 1.5 0.0

Ranking of universities according to average normed research output 2007 - 2008

Rank  University Average weighted output 2007 – 2008

Average normed output for 2007 – 2008

Transformed to base of 100

Quar tile clusters

1 STELLENBOSCH 1745.7 163.5 100.02

12 CAPE TOWN 1859.1 162.8 94.233 RHODES 544.0 138.8 82.294 WITWATERSRAND 1555.3 126.4 71.595 PRETORIA 2180.4 107.1 63.506 JOHANNESBURG 821.8 98.4 62.58

27 NELSON MANDELA 470.8 95.6 59.858 KWAZULU-NATAL 1637.7 87.3 55.589 NORTH WEST 1072.2 94.5 54.76

10 FREE STATE 849.6 93.1 49.8611 WESTERN CAPE 465.1 72.0 43.6012 TSHWANE UT 250.7 62.3 39.81

313 SOUTH AFRICA 938.4 61.1 36.6114 CENTRAL UT 72.1 64.8 34.9415 CAPE PENINSULA UT 151.4 44.6 29.2316 ZULULAND 134.9 46.1 24.9417 FORT HARE 152.9 38.9 23.1118 VAAL UT 36.2 25.5 16.46

419 VENDA 75.7 21.6 14.7720 DURBAN UT 72.0 25.0 13.5221 LIMPOPO 239.0 25.3 13.0922 WALTER SISULU 20.7 5.3 3.3523 MANGOSUTHU 1.5 2.4 1.56

Clusters of universities according to average normed research output and contribution to knowledgebase

Rank  University First cluster(Normed output)

Second cluster(Share of knowledgebase)

1 STELLENBOSCH 1 12 CAPE TOWN 1 13 WITWATERSRAND 1 14 PRETORIA 1 15 RHODES 1 26 KWAZULU-NATAL 2 17 JOHANNESBURG 2 28 NELSON MANDELA 2 29 NORTH WEST 2 2

10 FREE STATE 2 211 WESTERN CAPE 2 212 SOUTH AFRICA 3 213 TSHWANE UT 3 314 CAPE PENINSULA UT 3 315 ZULULAND 3 316 FORT HARE 3 317 CENTRAL UT 3 418 LIMPOPO 4 319 VAAL UT 4 420 VENDA 4 421 DURBAN UT 4 422 WALTER SISULU 4 423 MANGOSUTHU 4 4

Scientific output by main field and university (1990 – 2005)University Engineerin

g& Applied Sciences

Natural sciences

Agriculture

Health Sciences

Social & Economic Sciences

Humanities

UFS 0.0% 25.3% 16.7% 18.6% 13.7% 25.7%NWU 4.0% 25.9% 0.0% 11.7% 58.4%UCT 4.8% 38.5% 0.0% 31.5% 14.4% 10.8%UP 7.6% 23.7% 16.8% 17.5% 13.3% 21.1%UNISA 1.2% 10.5% 0.0% 3.2% 29.5% 55.6%UKZN 4.7% 29.0% 12.6% 22.0% 17.5% 14.1%SU 6.0% 16.9% 11.1% 24.0% 17.0% 25.0%NMMU 47.0% 0.0% 7.0% 25.0% 21.0%WITS 7.6% 31.7% 0.0% 33.1% 16.1% 11.5%UWC 0.0% 19.0% 0.0% 13.0% 31.0% 37.0%UFH 0.0% 37.0% 15.0% 6.0% 19.0% 23.0%DUT 16.4% 40.2% 0.0% 21.7% 15.0% 6.7%TUT 22.4% 33.5% 10.4% 19.1% 0.4% 10.6%TOTAL 7% 36% 20% 16% 21%

Distribution of article output by institution and ISI/non-ISI journals (1990 – 2005)

University %ISI-articles(non-SA journals)

%ISI-articles(SA-journals)

%non-ISISA -journals

%IBSS-journals

Total article equivalents recorded

UCT 67.2% 12.3% 15.0% 1.4% 17204DUT 64.8% 10.7% 20.2% 4.3% 347WITS 56.9% 12.9% 26.5% 3.6% 16352UKZN 53.8% 13.9% 30.5% 1.8% 12804TUT 46.3% 12.1% 30.7% 10.9% 486UFH 42.6% 14.7% 37.6% 5.2% 639SU 40.4% 9.6% 50.0% N/A 13740UP 39.1% 14.5% 44.9% 1.4% 14967UFS 34.0% 13.8% 56.7% 1.1% 6304RHODES 33.8% 15.0% 51.2% N/A 3103UWC 33.0% 9.0% 52.0% 6.0% 1588NWU 32.4% 7.0% 57.7% 2.8% 5542UNISA 13.0% 4.0% 80.0% 3.0% 6878NMMU 12.5% 39.7% 45.4% 2.5% 2527

The institutional distribution of doctoral production (1990 – 2007)

Institution1990-1992

1996-1998

2002-2004

2005-2007 Total Col % Acc. %

Pretoria 322 286 482 510 1825 15.0 15.0

UCT 212 232 291 417 1244 11.5 26.5

Stellenbosch 223 207 282 381 1183 10.9 37.4

UKZN 185 194 225 304 986 9.3 46.7

Wits 228 199 243 332 1107 9.0 55.7

NWU 88 102 221 125 703 8.0 63.7

UNISA 294 235 181 251 1285 7.7 71.4

UJ 138 163 118 236 778 7.8 79.2

UFS 159 132 206 202 817 6.4 85.6

Rhodes 57 71 124 90 398 3.4 89.0

Broad fieldSub-fields with largest number of headcount in broad field

Headcount

As % of broad total

Top 3 sub-

fields as % of

grand total

(1274)

Nat & Agric Sciences

Biological sciences 89 25%Chemical sciences 73 20%

Engineering, Materials

& Tech

Electrical & Electronic Engineering 28 30%

Mechanical Engineering 17 18%Health

Sciences Clinical & Public Health 88 67%

Social Sciences

Education 142 32% 11% [1]Economic & Management Sciences 136 31% 11% [2]

HumanitiesReligion 106 42% 8% [3]Language & Linguistics 78 31%

Distribution of doctoral graduates by scientific field and discipline (2007)

On matters of stratification

Distribution of articles by race and institution (1990 and most recent year)

University % Black share of article equivalents (1990 or earliest)

% Black share of article equivalents (most recent year)

DUT 17.6% 66.4%UFH 15.1% 51.9%UWC 27.0% 35.0%UKZN 22.8% 35.3%TUT 9.3% 30.7%Rhodes 5.4% 17.8%UCT 5.7% 15.1%NMMU 0.1% 10.1%SU 1.0% 10.0%UNISA 2.9% 9.2%WITS 3.1% 7.3%UP 0.0% 5.7%UFS 0.0% 4.9%NWU 0.2% 3.2%

Distribution of journal articles by age of author and universityUniversity <40 years

(1990)50+ years(1990)

<30 years(most recent year)

50+ years(most recent year)

WITS 38.3% 23.9% 7.8% 64.6%NWU 36.6% 25.5% 12.7% 57.8%UNISA 34.3% 25.8% 15.2% 52.6%UCT 34.8% 26.3% 17.8% 50.3%UFS 36.5% 30.6% 20.4% 49.2%UP 38.1% 23.4% 23.2% 49.1%UKZN 2.5% 83.3% 16.1% 48.3%Rhodes 34.4% 17.3% 11.9% 44.5%UFH 22.4% 42.3% 19.5% 42.1%NMMU 49.6% 18.6% 18.9% 40.8%TUT 7.5% 65.0% 17.7% 38.5%SU 32.0% 34.0% 26.0% 38.0%UWC 50.0% 14.0% 19.0% 38.0%DUT 64.3% 7.1% 0.0% 27.5%

Some concluding “predictions” for the next decade The overall size of the university knowledgebase

(i.t.o. article and doctoral output) is unlikely to increase

The very skewed shape i.t.o. institutional contribution to the knowledgebase and normed productivity of universities reveals “four” clusters that are unlikely to change fundamentally

Unless we significantly broaden the human capital base to include many more black (and to a lesser extent female) academics who publish and regenerate the workforce, it is more than likely that both the volume of output and overall productivity of institutions will decline

Thank you