Copyright 1996 hy Il 'r S, .. 11, 1 ,-; , "," I I Published by f' rincct(l fl l 'If", ,I I Princeton. New Jersey In the United Kingdum: Princeton 11 I1, vC"'IV I'" West Sussex All Rights Reserved

Library 0/ Congress Cataloging-in-Publicallon 1)111"

Counterfactual thought experimcnlS in worl d l"r " " I, methodological, and psychological perspecti ves I cd"ed hy 1'111 111' I Tetlock and Aaron Belkin.

p . cm . Includes bibliographical references and index . ISBN 0-691-02792-7 (cl : alk. paper). - ISBN 0·69 1.027<) 1 t) (ph :

alk. paper)

L World politics . 2. History-Philosophy . 3 . Countcrfoctuals (Logic). I. Tetlock, Philip. II. Belkin , Aaron, 1966-DI6 .9.C645 1996 901-dc20

96·6.1'.16 CIP

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Contents _________________

vii

Acknowledgments ix

PART ONE: Counterfactual Inference: Form and Function

Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical,

List of Contributors

Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives Philip E. Tetlock and Aaron Belkin

2 Causes and Counterfactuals in Social Science: Exploring an Analogy between Cellular Automata and Historical Processes 39 James D. Fearon

PART TWO: Counterfactual Analysis of Particular Events

3 Counterfactual Reasoning in Western Studies of Soviet Politics and Foreign Relations 69 George W. Breslauer

4 Confronting Hitler and Its Consequences 95 Yuen Foong Khong

5 Back to the Past: Counterfactuals and the Cuban Missile Crisis Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein

119

6 Counterfactual Reasoning in Motivational Analysis: U.S. Policy toward Iran 149 Richard K. Herrmann and Michael P. Fischerkeller

PART THREE: Counterfactual Analysis of Classes of Events

7 Counterfactuals about War and Its Absence 171 Bruce Russett

8 Using Counterfactuals in Historical Analysis: Theories of Revolution 187 Edgclr K iser clIId Margaret tevi

vi CONTE NTS

PART FOUR: Countcrfnct lJ llls 111111 CIIIIII' ' 1111'111 Y

9 Counterfactuals and Intcnl!lt illlHlI A I hil i

from Game Theory Bruce Bueno de Mesqllilll

SI1 I11 C Insights 211

10 Off-the-Path Behavior: A Game-Thcore tic Approach to Counterfactuals and Its Implications for Polit ical and Historical Analysis Barry R. Weingast

230

PART FIVE: Computer and Mental Simulations of Possible Worlds

II Rerunning History: Counterfactual Simulation in World Politics 247 Lars-Erik Cederman

12 Counterfactuals, Past and Future 268 Steven Weber

PART SIX: Commentaries

Conceptual Blending and Counterfactual Argument in the Social and Behavioral Sciences 291 Mark Turner

2 Psychological Biases in Counterfactual Thought Experiments 296 James M. Olson, Neal J. Roese, and Ronald J . Deibert

3 Counterfactual Inferences as Instances of Statistical Inferences 301 Robyn M. Dawes

4 Counterfactuals, Causation, and Complexity 309 Robert Jervis

References 317

Index 337

Contributors ---------------

AARO N BELKIN Doctoral candidate , Department of Political Science University of California, Berkeley GEO RGE W . BRESLAUER Professor, Department of Political Science University of California, Berkeley BRU CE BUENO DE MESQUITA Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution Stanford University LA R S-ERIK CEDERMAN University Lecturer in International Relations, Somerville College Oxford University RO BYN M. DAWES University Professor Carnegie Mellon University RO N ALD J . DEIB ERT Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science University of Toronto J A MES D. FEARON Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science University of Chicago MI CH AEL P. FISCHERKELLER Doctoral candidate, Department of Political Science The Ohio State University R ICHAR D K . H E R RMANN Associate Professor, Department of Political Science Director, Program in Foreign Policy Analysis, Mershon Center The Ohio State University ROB E RT J ERVIS Adlai E. Stevenson Professor of International Relations,

Department of Political Science Columbia University YUE N FOONG KHONG Fellow, Nuffic1d College John G . Winant University Lecturer in American Poreign Policy Ox foru Universi ty