"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely
disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could
reach nearly 10 million barrels per day," says the report, which
has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis Joint
Operating Environment report from the US Joint Forces Command
guardian.co.uk, Sunday 11 April 2010
Slide 11
Slide 12
A Look at Global Temperature T(x)=0.0005x2 -0.00464x+57.133 F
T(x)=0.001x-0.00464 F/year x years after 1950 T(59)= 58.56 F and
T(58)=0.05 F/year In 2009 the average global temperature was 58.56
deg F and increasing at a rate of 0.05 deg F per year.
Slide 13
Temperature Predictions T(100)=61.55 F and T(150)=67.43 F The
model predicts that in 2050 the average temperature will be 61.55
deg F, and in 2100 it will be 67.43 deg F, an increase of 3.43 and
9.31 deg F, respectively, since 2000.
Slide 14
More Temperature Predictions Using T(58)=.0528 F/year If global
temperatures continue to increase at current rates, then by 2050
there will be an increase of 2.61 deg F and by 2100 there will be
an increase of 5.26 deg F since 2000. The average global
temperature in those years will be 60.73 and 63.38,
respectively.
Slide 15
-National Academies Report on Climate Change (March 2006)
Slide 16
National Academies Report: Climate Change The rising
temperature observed since 1978 are particularly noteworthy because
the rate of increase is so high and because, during the same
period, the energy reaching the Earth from the Sun had been
measured precisely enough to conclude that Earths warming was not
due to changes in the Sun. -March 2006
Glacier Melting Facts Two BILLION people in more than a dozen
countries depend on rivers fed by the snow and ice of the plateau
region. (Nat Geo, April 2010) The Tibetan Plateau as a whole is
heating up twice as fast as the global average. (Nat Geo, April
2010) Snowpack too!
Slide 35
Work with Brian McGauvran
Slide 36
Heat Index (F) Probability Above HI 100 73% 105 55% 11038%
11524% 12014% 1258% 1304% Observed Ithaca Maxima Predicted Ithaca
Maxima Heat Index (F) Probability Above HI 10082% 10570% 11057%
11543% 12031% 12522% 13014%
Slide 37
Slide 38
Slide 39
Slide 40
THE END www.ithaca.edu/tpfaff/sustainability.htm
[email protected] Partly Supported by NSF DUE-0837721
Slide 41
So, What Do We Do? Live Local Learn Practical Skills Make Smart
Choices