Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Third Quarter 2017Earnings Conference Call
October 25, 2017
Safe Harbor Statement & Non-GAAP Information
2
Safe Harbor Statement
This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities
Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, including, in particular, statements about future events, future financial performance including earnings estimates, plans, strategies,
expectations, prospects, competitive environment, regulation, and cost and availability of raw materials. Forward-looking statements include all statements that are not
historical facts and can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as the words “may,” “will,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “plan,”
“intend” or the negative of these terms or similar expressions. These forward-looking statements have been based on our current views with respect to future events and
financial performance. Our actual financial performance could differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements due to the inherent uncertainty of
estimates, forecasts and projections, and our financial performance may be better or worse than anticipated. Given these uncertainties, you should not put undue
reliance on any forward-looking statements. All of the forward-looking statements are qualified in their entirety by reference to the factors discussed under “Risk Factors”
in Part I, Item 1A of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016 and our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Forward-
looking statements represent our estimates and assumptions only as of the date that they were made. We do not undertake any duty to update the forward-looking
statements, and the estimates and assumptions associated with them, after the date of this presentation, except to the extent required by applicable securities laws.
Non-GAAP Information
These materials include certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the attachments to our October 25, 2017 earnings release and the “Investors” section of our
website at www.drpeppersnapple.com to find a reconciliation of such non-GAAP financial measures to their most direct GAAP counterpart.
Definitions
Please refer to the definitions included in our October 25, 2017 earnings release and the attachments thereto (the “earnings release”) for the definitions of Core Earnings,
Core EPS and certain other terms used herein.
Q3, 2017 Price/Mix Up About 2.5%... Total BCS Volume Flat
CSD’s -1%
-2%
-8%
+2%
-1%
-1%
+5%
+1%
All Other -3%
Q3 Volume BCS1 Change
1BCS (Bottler Case Sales) volume as defined in the earnings release.
NCB’s +6%
-5%
+5%
+7%
+108%
Growth Allieds +40%
All Other -1%
3
T3 Activation and Innovation
4
Bai Performance
5
YTD Distribution & Availability
BaseACV Change
CocofusionsACV Change
BubblesACV Change
SuperTeaACV Change
Food 88 +6pts 85 +8pts 68 +12pts 30 +13pts
Convenience 54 +11pts 48 +13pts 7 +3pts 6 +3pts
Source(s): ACV and Velocity based on IRi Scan Data 4 weeks ended 10/08/17 vs 1/01/17
Source(s): Trial and Repeat based on IRi Panel Data 13 weeks ended 9/24/17 vs 3/26/17; Portfolio includes Base, Cocofusions and SuperTea
Source (s): Brand Awareness based on Hall & Partners “Bai Brand Tracking 2017 Q3 Topline”
Trial • During incremental trial driving activity
window, trial rates almost doubled across the portfolio
Repeat Rates Remain Strong
Q1 Q2 Q3
National Aided Brand Awareness*Over 40% increase in brand awareness during trial driving activity
Average velocity growth ~70% YTD across channels
Q3 and Year-to-Date 2017 Results
6
% Change vs. 2016
1 Core Operating Income is a non-GAAP financial measure that is defined as Income from Operations adjusted for the unrealized mark-to-market impact of commodity and interest rate derivatives and certain items that are excluded for comparison to prior year periods. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures can be found in the attachments to the earnings release and under the “Investors” section of our website at www.drpeppersnapple.com.
2 Core EPS is a non-GAAP financial measure that is defined as EPS adjusted for the unrealized mark-to-market impact of commodity and interest rate derivatives and certain items that are excluded for comparison to prior year periods.
Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures can be found in the attachments to the earnings release and under the “Investors” section of our website at www.drpeppersnapple.com.
Volume (BCS) Flat 1%
Net Sales 4% 4%
Reported Segment Operating Profit -3% -5%
Core Operating Income1 -4% -2%
Core EPS2 -6% Flat
Third Quarter YTD
Other Financial Items
7
Fav/(Unfav)Change vs. 2016
Below-the-line items ($ million) Q3 YTD
● Corporate ex. mark-to-market $3 ($8)
● Commodity mark-to-market changes 9 (31)
● Net interest expense (7) (24)
● Reported tax rate 36.0% 32.9%
Cash Flow ($ million) YTD 2017 YTD 2016
● Cash from operating activities $732 $705
● Capital spending 85 110
● Investments in allied brands 3 6
● Cash returns to shareholders
– Dividends 309 288
– Share repurchases 320 460
2017 Full Year Guidance
8
● Sales volumes still expected to be up approximately 2%– Organic volume growth now expected to be up over 1%
● Net Sales still expected to be up approximately 4.5%– Bai acquisition now expected to add over 1 point of growth to Net Sales
● Full year Core EPS1 now expected to be approximately $4.50 to $4.57, inclusive of the following items:– Impact of Bai acquisition now expected to be $0.11 dilutive to Core EPS – The recent hurricanes and earthquakes in the U.S. and Mexico are now expected to reduce Core EPS by $0.02– Collectively, foreign currency translation and transaction are now expected to reduce Core EPS by $0.02, primarily
driven by the Mexican peso– Excluding the Bai acquisition, the company now expects packaging and ingredient costs to be inflationary by over 0.5%
on a constant volume/mix basis, including the impact from higher resin prices in fourth quarter – Core Tax rate still expected to be approximately 34%
● Anticipated share repurchases of $450-500MM
● Net CAPEX still expected to be approximately 3% of Net Sales
1 Core EPS is a non-GAAP financial measure that is defined as EPS adjusted for the unrealized mark-to-market impact of commodity and interest rate derivatives and certain items that are excluded for comparison to prior year periods. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures can be found in the attachments to the earnings release and under the “Investors” section of our website at www.drpeppersnapple.com.
Key Takeaways
9
● Driving aligned communication, innovation and execution across our key priority brands
● Executing against our communicated strategy for Bai
● Leveraging our allied brand portfolio to participate in rapid growth categories
● Driving improvements in growth and productivity across the business with Rapid Continuous Improvement
● Remain committed to returning excess cash to shareholders over time