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November 6, 2009 Third Quarter 2009 Financial Results

Third Quarter 2009 - Air Canadapresentation and, in particular, those identified in section 15 “Risk Factors" of Air Canada's Third Quarter 2009 MD&A dated November 6, 2009. The

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Page 1: Third Quarter 2009 - Air Canadapresentation and, in particular, those identified in section 15 “Risk Factors" of Air Canada's Third Quarter 2009 MD&A dated November 6, 2009. The

November 6, 2009

Third Quarter 2009 Financial Results

Page 2: Third Quarter 2009 - Air Canadapresentation and, in particular, those identified in section 15 “Risk Factors" of Air Canada's Third Quarter 2009 MD&A dated November 6, 2009. The

Table of Contents

• Financial Highlights

• Passenger Revenue

• Operating Expense

Page 3: Third Quarter 2009 - Air Canadapresentation and, in particular, those identified in section 15 “Risk Factors" of Air Canada's Third Quarter 2009 MD&A dated November 6, 2009. The

Financial Highlights – Results of Operations

(millions) Q3 2009 Q3 2008 Change

Operating Revenue $ 2,670 $ 3,075 $ (405)

Operating Income $ 68 $ 112 $ (44)

EBITDAR $ 320 $ 355 $ (35)

Net Income (loss) $ 277 $ (132) $ 409

Operating Margin 2.5% 3.6% (1.1) PP

EBITDAR Margin 12.0% 11.5% 0.4 PP

RASM (cents) 14.1 15.7 (10.2)%

CASM (cents) 15.4 16.9 (9.2)%

CASM excl. Fuel (cents) 11.3 10.8 4.5%

Page 4: Third Quarter 2009 - Air Canadapresentation and, in particular, those identified in section 15 “Risk Factors" of Air Canada's Third Quarter 2009 MD&A dated November 6, 2009. The

Financial Highlights – Financial Position and Cash Flow

(millions) Q3 2009 Q3 2008 Change

Cash Flow used for Operations $ (234) $ (268) $ 34

Additions to Capital Assets $ (34) $ (105) $ 71

Free Cash Flow $ (268) $ (373) $ 105

Cash, Cash Equivalents & Short-term Investments

$ 1,209 $ 1,114 $ 95

Adjusted debt/equity ratio % 84.7% 72.0% 12.7 pp

Page 5: Third Quarter 2009 - Air Canadapresentation and, in particular, those identified in section 15 “Risk Factors" of Air Canada's Third Quarter 2009 MD&A dated November 6, 2009. The

Q3 Non-Operating Expense

(millions) Q3 2009 Q3 2008 Change

Net Interest Expense $ (84) $ (53) $ (31)

Gain on Assets $ 1 $ - $ 1

Gain (Loss) on Fin. Instruments $ 4 $ (93) $ 97

Other $ (4) $ (1) $ (3)

Total Non-Oper. Expense $ (83) $ (147) $ 64

Page 6: Third Quarter 2009 - Air Canadapresentation and, in particular, those identified in section 15 “Risk Factors" of Air Canada's Third Quarter 2009 MD&A dated November 6, 2009. The

Q3 2009 Actual vs Prior Year

Rev ASMs RPMs PLF Yield RASM

Canada 13.3% 1.5% 0.7% 1.8 PP 13.6% 11.7%

US Transborder 13.1% 8.8% 8.0% 0.7 PP 5.4% 4.6%

Atlantic 6.7% 6.8% 5.9% 0.8 PP 11.8% 12.6%

Pacific 21.9% 14.8% 12.6% 2.1 PP 10.6% 8.4%

Latin Amer. & Other 20.1% 7.2% 7.6% 0.4 PP 13.5% 13.9%

Total 13.2% 3 .3% 2.1 % 1.0 PP 11.2% 10.2%

Total Oper. Expense 12.2%

Total CASM 9.2%

Total CASM excl. Fuel 4.5 %

Page 7: Third Quarter 2009 - Air Canadapresentation and, in particular, those identified in section 15 “Risk Factors" of Air Canada's Third Quarter 2009 MD&A dated November 6, 2009. The

System Capacity Reduced by 3.3% to Adjust to Passenger Demand

(Y-O-Y Changes in Capacity)

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

Canada U.S. Int'l Total

Q3 2008/2007 Q4 2008/2007 Q1 2009/2008 Q2 2009/2008 Q3 2009/2008

% Change in ASMs

Page 8: Third Quarter 2009 - Air Canadapresentation and, in particular, those identified in section 15 “Risk Factors" of Air Canada's Third Quarter 2009 MD&A dated November 6, 2009. The

Traffic Shortfall of 2.1% Was Less Than the Capacity Reduction

(Y-O-Y Changes in Traffic)

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

Canada U.S. Int'l Total

Q3 2008/2007 Q4 2008/2007 Q1 2009/2008 Q2 2009/2008 Q3 2009/2008

% Change in RPMs

Page 9: Third Quarter 2009 - Air Canadapresentation and, in particular, those identified in section 15 “Risk Factors" of Air Canada's Third Quarter 2009 MD&A dated November 6, 2009. The

Weaker Economy Put Pressure on Yield – Down 11.2%

(Y-O-Y Changes in Passenger Yield)

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Canada U.S. Int'l Total

Q3 2008/2007 Q4 2008/2007 Q1 2009/2008 Q2 2009/2008 Q3 2009/2008

% Change in Yield

Page 10: Third Quarter 2009 - Air Canadapresentation and, in particular, those identified in section 15 “Risk Factors" of Air Canada's Third Quarter 2009 MD&A dated November 6, 2009. The

(Y-O-Y Changes in Revenue per ASM)

-15%-10%-5%0%5%

10%15%20%

Canada U.S. Int'l Tot al

Q3 2008/2007 Q4 2008/2007 Q1 2009/2008 Q2 2009/2008 Q3 2009/2008

% Change in RASM

System RASM Declined 10.2% Due to Lower Yield as Load Factor Up 1.0 PP

Page 11: Third Quarter 2009 - Air Canadapresentation and, in particular, those identified in section 15 “Risk Factors" of Air Canada's Third Quarter 2009 MD&A dated November 6, 2009. The

Reduced Traffic & Lower Avg. Fares Resulted in Lower Revenues – Weakness in Premium Cabin

(Y-O-Y Changes in Passenger Revenue)

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Canada U.S. Int'l Total

Q3 2008/2007 Q4 2008/2007 Q1 2009/2008 Q2 2009/2008 Q3 2009/2008

% Change in Revenue

Page 12: Third Quarter 2009 - Air Canadapresentation and, in particular, those identified in section 15 “Risk Factors" of Air Canada's Third Quarter 2009 MD&A dated November 6, 2009. The

-10

-5

0

5

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Canada – Q3 RASM Decr. 11.7% Due to Lower Yield as LF Up 1.8 PP

% Change

-15

-10

-5

0

5

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Yield RASM

Load Factor

% Change

PP Change

% Change

Capacity (ASM)

Y-O-Y Change

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2008 2009

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2008 2009

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2008 2009

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2008 2009

Page 13: Third Quarter 2009 - Air Canadapresentation and, in particular, those identified in section 15 “Risk Factors" of Air Canada's Third Quarter 2009 MD&A dated November 6, 2009. The

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

US Transborder – Q3 RASM Decreased 4.6% on Lower Yield as LF Up 0.7 PP

% Change

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Yield RASM

Load Factor

% Change

PP Change

% Change

Y-O-Y Change

Capacity (ASM)

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2008 2009

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2008 2009

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2008 2009

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2008 2009

Page 14: Third Quarter 2009 - Air Canadapresentation and, in particular, those identified in section 15 “Risk Factors" of Air Canada's Third Quarter 2009 MD&A dated November 6, 2009. The

-5

0

5

10

Atlantic – RASM Decreased 12.6% Largely Due to Lower Yield

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10% Change

-15-10

-505

1015

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Yield RASM

Load Factor

% Change

PP Change

% Change

Capacity (ASM)

Y-O-Y Change

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2008 2009

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2008 2009

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2008 2009

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2008 2009

Page 15: Third Quarter 2009 - Air Canadapresentation and, in particular, those identified in section 15 “Risk Factors" of Air Canada's Third Quarter 2009 MD&A dated November 6, 2009. The

Pacific – RASM Decreased 8.4% on Lower Yield as LF Up 2.1 PP

-30

-20

-10

0

10% Change

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Yield RASM

Load Factor

% Change

PP Change

% Change

Capacity (ASM)

Y-O-Y Change

-5

0

5

10

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2008 2009

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2008 2009

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2008 2009

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2008 2009

Page 16: Third Quarter 2009 - Air Canadapresentation and, in particular, those identified in section 15 “Risk Factors" of Air Canada's Third Quarter 2009 MD&A dated November 6, 2009. The

-4

-2

0

2

Caribbean, Latin America & Australia – RASM Down 13.9% Due Primarily to Lower Yield

-20

-10

0

10

20

30% Change

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-20

-10

0

10

20

Yield RASM

Load Factor

% Change

PP Change

% Change

Capacity (ASM)

Y-O-Y Change

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2008 2009

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2008 2009

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2008 2009

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2008 2009

Page 17: Third Quarter 2009 - Air Canadapresentation and, in particular, those identified in section 15 “Risk Factors" of Air Canada's Third Quarter 2009 MD&A dated November 6, 2009. The

-15-10-505

101520

CASM RASM

-3-2-10123

Total – RASM Down 10.2% on Lower Yield

-15

-10

-5

0

5% Change

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Yield RASM

Load Factor

% Change

PP Change

% Change

Capacity (ASM)

Y-O-Y Change

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q32008 2009

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2008 2009

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2008 2009

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2008 2009

Page 18: Third Quarter 2009 - Air Canadapresentation and, in particular, those identified in section 15 “Risk Factors" of Air Canada's Third Quarter 2009 MD&A dated November 6, 2009. The

Q3 Employee Levels Reduced by 5.3%, Adjusting to Lower Capacity; Average Salary Up 1.3%

(Y-O-Y Change – Average Salaries & Employees)

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09

Average Salaries Employees

% Change Y-O-Y

Page 19: Third Quarter 2009 - Air Canadapresentation and, in particular, those identified in section 15 “Risk Factors" of Air Canada's Third Quarter 2009 MD&A dated November 6, 2009. The

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09

Fuel Productivity (ASMs/Lt) Fuel Cost (Cdn cts/Lt)

Q3 Fuel Cost/Litre Down 32% While Fuel Productivity Improves 2.6% - Fuel Cost/Litre Down 45% Excl. Hedges (non-GAAP measure)

(Fuel Productivity & Unit Cost)

% Change Y-O-Y

Page 20: Third Quarter 2009 - Air Canadapresentation and, in particular, those identified in section 15 “Risk Factors" of Air Canada's Third Quarter 2009 MD&A dated November 6, 2009. The

RPM

s

ASM

s

A/C

Fuel

SW &

B

User

Fees

Com

miss

.

Cap.

Purc

h.O

wner

ship

Acft.

Mtc

e.Fo

od/ B

arCo

m. &

IT

Oth

er

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Q3 Operating Expenses Down $361M Despite Additional Expense of $60M Due to Unfav. FX – Fuel Down $382M

% Change Y-O-Y

Q3 2009/2008

Page 21: Third Quarter 2009 - Air Canadapresentation and, in particular, those identified in section 15 “Risk Factors" of Air Canada's Third Quarter 2009 MD&A dated November 6, 2009. The

-15%-10%-5%0%5%

10%15%20%

Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09

Q3 Unit Cost Down 9.2% on Lower Fuel

(Cost Per ASM)

% Change Y-O-Y

Page 22: Third Quarter 2009 - Air Canadapresentation and, in particular, those identified in section 15 “Risk Factors" of Air Canada's Third Quarter 2009 MD&A dated November 6, 2009. The

Caution Regarding Forward-looking InformationAir Canada’s public communications may include written or oral forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Such statements are included in this presentation and may be included in other communications, including filings with regulatory authorities and securities regulators. Forward-looking statements relate to analyses and other information that are based on forecasts of future results and estimates of amounts not yet determinable. These statements may involve, but are not limited to, comments relating to strategies, expectations, planned operations or future actions. Forward-looking statements are identified by the use of terms and phrases such as “anticipate", “believe", “could", “estimate", “expect", “intend", “may", “plan", “predict", “project", “will", “would", and similar terms and phrases, including references to assumptions.

Forward-looking statements, by their nature, are based on assumptions, including those described herein, and are subject to important risks and uncertainties. Forward-looking statements cannot be relied upon due to, amongst other things, changing external events and general uncertainties of the business. Actual results may differ materially from results indicated in forward-looking statements due to a number of factors, including without limitation, industry, market, credit and economic conditions, the ability to reduce operating costs and secure financing, pension issues, energy prices, currency exchange and interest rates, employee and labour relations, competition, war, terrorist acts, epidemic diseases, insurance issues and costs, changes in demand due to the seasonal nature of the business, supply issues, changes in laws, regulatory developments or proceedings, pending and future litigation and actions by third parties as well as the factors identified throughout this presentation and, in particular, those identified in section 15 “Risk Factors" of Air Canada's Third Quarter 2009 MD&A dated November 6, 2009.

The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation represent Air Canada’s expectations as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change after such date. However, Air Canada disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required under applicable securities regulations.

Page 23: Third Quarter 2009 - Air Canadapresentation and, in particular, those identified in section 15 “Risk Factors" of Air Canada's Third Quarter 2009 MD&A dated November 6, 2009. The