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Thinking outside the triangle: Research-based principles for
engagement
Wes DarouCantley, Quebec
Canada
The trouble with Maslow
There is little research evidence to support the hierarchy of needs
The theory has been taken out of context, misunderstood and misappropriated
It was intended as a tool for the emancipation of human kind
Self-EfficacyAn individual’s confidence in their
agencyi.e. the belief in their effectiveness in
performing specific tasks.Making causal attributions about risk
increases sense of competence and control
Self-Efficacy Theory (Albert Bandura)
Beliefs people hold about their capabilities predicts how they behave better than their actual capabilities
Perceived self-efficacy influences: the level of challenge people set for themselves the amount of effort they mobilize their persistence in the face of difficulties
People can consciously change and develop their sense of self-efficacy
Organizations with a strong sense of collective efficacy exercise empowering and vitalizing influences on their staff
Risk management process
5. Evaluation•Improving the process•Organizational learning•Performance reporting
4. Monitoring•Decision-making•Adjusting•Performance reporting 3. Risk Response
•Determining options•Mitigation options•Implementing
2. Risk Assessment•Impact and likelihood•Risk ranking•Risk tolerance
1. Risk Identification•Environment scanning•Partner collaboration•Selecting key risk areas
UnderstandingContext
•Communications strategy•Gender differences•Stakeholder consultation•Accountabilities
Feedback
1. Risk identification
Opportunity risks: bad news trumps goodBlack swans: high self-efficacy may reduce subtle perceptions of danger Too much certainty about self seeking confirmatory informationInsecurity is your friend!
8
Self-efficacy and perception
Human perception is not rationalBias blind-spot: people are more apt to detect bias in others than in themselves
ISO Principles and self-efficacyRM is an integral part of processes Is transparent and inclusive* Is dynamic, iterative and responsive to change* Is tailored to the context*Takes human factors into account*Creates value*Explicitly addresses uncertainty* Is systematic, structured and timely* Is based on the best information*Continual improvement, enhance the
organization* * self-efficacy things we mentioned
2. Risk assessment: Self-efficacy and groups
Group assessment is essentially a feedback exercise
Decision-making is better when participative
High self-efficacy: seek self-verifying information even if it is negative
Low self-efficacy: seek positive information even if it is not self-verifying
Therefore, question positive information
Key Risk Areas
Operational Risks
Financial Risks
DevelopmentRisks
• Op1: Human resources• Op2: Performance mgt• Op3: Information systems
• Dev1: Strategic• Dev2: Socio-political• Dev3: Inst capacity• Dev4: Modality• Dev5: Disasters, env,
disease
Reputation / Public Confidence
• Fin1: Funding• Fin2: Fiduciary• Fin3: Instrument
Self-efficacy and feedbackImportant aspect of determining your
self-efficacyFeedback reduces feelings of uncertainty,
particularly valuable to newcomersAs diagnostic value of feedback
increases, individuals search out more feedback
Seek more feedback when environment is supportive and considerate
Seek less feedback when threat is highCan produce strong affective reactions
3. Risk treatment
People have a central motivation to increase resources to achieve goals
When people perceive their environment as controllable, they will exercise efficacy
Therefore, be incremental: gradually increase resources without threatening self-efficacy
Align goals with central values; will work harder to resolve risk issues (very useful at CIDA)
Build organizational self-efficacyNegative mood is related to creativity
15
Due Diligence
Likelihood
Imp
act
4
1 2 3 4
2
3
Capacity Funding
Socio-Political
Modality
Hum Resources
PolicyReputation
Performance Mgt
Instrument
Typical program risk map
Very likelyLikelyUnlikelyVery unlikelyLikelihood
Would prevent achievement of results; close monitoring
Would threaten results; will require review
Could threaten results; may require monitoring
Routine procedures sufficient to deal with consequences
Impact
Very highHighLowVery lowCriteria
Disasters
Fiduciary
17
Impact = significantLikelihood = medium
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4. Monitoring: Risk Register
Risk Start Date 2 Trend
Risk response Owner
Operational -Risk 1: HR -Risk 2: Perf Mgt
Very Low StableStable
Restructure respons’iesRBM training in field
DirectorAnalystHigh
Financial -Risk 1: Funding -Risk 2: Fiduciary
Very High DownUp
DGFinanceVery Low
Development -Risk 1: Policy -Risk 2: Socio-pol
Low DirectorField Dir.Very High
Reputation -Risk 1: Rep High Comms
Self-efficacy and risk tolerance
Precautionary principle: In abscence of certainty, the obligation to minimize harm
A perception of self-efficacy in RM gives a sense of more certainty. This allows you to tolerate higher, more realistic levels of risk.
20
Risk tolerance table
Risk (I x L) 1 4 8 12 16
Human Resources
X
Performance Mgt
X
Fiduciary XPolicy XSocio-Political XInst. Capacity XDisasters XReputation X
Upside of self-efficacy
Good self-efficacy should improve quality of risk management
This is an important value-added for senior management
Good risk management should increase self-efficacy (and you keep your job)
Downside of self-efficacy
May prevent you from seeing Black Swan risks
Could lead to unrealistic risk tolerance
Can be emotionally chargedRisk owners
Without accountability, observations become less accurate
May attribute negative events to others
Conclusions (I)
Do it in groups better performanceHeterogeneous groupsInclude unhappy peopleCenter on values – principle-based
RM
Conclusions (II)
Make the process incrementalWelcome negative feedbackStay unsure / insecureKeep process intuitive and subjectiveBut get good data
People inherently want to do good risk management
People are capable of changing their self-efficacy
Tenet: Be helpful
26
Continuous Learning