THINKING LONG TERM: Confronting Global Climate Change

THINKING LONG TERM:THINKING LONG TERM:Confronting Global Climate Confronting Global Climate Change Change

Written byWritten byJames J. MacKenzie James J. MacKenzie

SenSeniior Associateor AssociateWorld Resources InstituteWorld Resources Institute

WORLDRESOURCESINSTITUTE

A hostile climate (Ice Ages) A hostile climate (Ice Ages) made life difficult for our made life difficult for our ancestorsancestors


Today’s more favorable climate Today’s more favorable climate has supported the growth of has supported the growth of civilization civilization


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lePartly as a result of a favorable Partly as a result of a favorable climate, humanity has grown in climate, humanity has grown in numbers over timenumbers over time


The world has grown dependent The world has grown dependent on inexpensive fossil fuelson inexpensive fossil fuels

Source: “Global Energy Perspectives” IIASA, WEC, 1998


But the burning of fuels now But the burning of fuels now threatens our well beingthreatens our well being

WORLDRESOURCESINSTITUTE Burning fossil fuels leads to:Burning fossil fuels leads to:

Environmental impacts during Environmental impacts during exploration and productionexploration and production

Ozone, acid deposition, and local and Ozone, acid deposition, and local and trans-boundary air pollution from trans-boundary air pollution from burningburning

Emissions of greenhouse gasesEmissions of greenhouse gases


Global warming enhanced by Global warming enhanced by emissions of man-made gasesemissions of man-made gases

Source: “Climate Change, State of Knowledge,” OSTP, 1997


Much is known with certainty Much is known with certainty about global warming:about global warming:

Existence of natural greenhouse effect is Existence of natural greenhouse effect is established beyond doubt established beyond doubt

Concentrations of greenhouse gases Concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are increasing(GHGs) are increasing

The temperature of the earth is increasing. The temperature of the earth is increasing. 1998 the hottest in at least 1000 years. 1998 the hottest in at least 1000 years.

Sea levels are rising (4 to 10 inches over Sea levels are rising (4 to 10 inches over past 100 years)past 100 years)

Some GHGs will remain in the atmosphere Some GHGs will remain in the atmosphere for centuriesfor centuries


COCO22 contributed most to global contributed most to global warming over past centurywarming over past century

Carbon Dioxide

70%

Methane23%

Nitrous Oxide7%


COCO22 is building up in the is building up in the atmosphereatmosphere



Earth’s temperature continues Earth’s temperature continues to rise rapidlyto rise rapidly


WORLDRESOURCESINSTITUTE The polar ice cap is meltingThe polar ice cap is melting


Earth is projected to grow Earth is projected to grow warmerwarmer

Source: Univ. of East Anglia, IPCC


Extreme precipitation events Extreme precipitation events are becoming more commonare becoming more common

WORLDRESOURCESINSTITUTE Uncertainties still persistUncertainties still persist

Timing and regional impactsTiming and regional impacts The effects of increased cloudinessThe effects of increased cloudiness Uncertain health and ecological Uncertain health and ecological

impactsimpacts Possible surprises from unanticipated Possible surprises from unanticipated

effectseffects


More impacts of global warmingMore impacts of global warmingcan be expectedcan be expected

More health effects from the spread More health effects from the spread of tropical diseases, heat waves, and of tropical diseases, heat waves, and so-called “natural disasters”so-called “natural disasters”

Loss of agricultural land in Loss of agricultural land in developing countriesdeveloping countries

Disappearance of ecosystems that Disappearance of ecosystems that are unable to migrateare unable to migrate


The climate problem is a The climate problem is a long-term problem long-term problem

and will require and will require “thinking long term” to “thinking long term” to

solve solve


Common sense goals to cope Common sense goals to cope with the climate threatwith the climate threat

Reduce COReduce CO22 emissions, requiring emissions, requiring world economy to become much world economy to become much more efficientmore efficient

Start a world-wide shift from fossil to Start a world-wide shift from fossil to non-fossil energy sourcesnon-fossil energy sources


We can explore We can explore energy-climate energy-climate futures through “what futures through “what if” scenarios …if” scenarios …


Criteria for a strategy to keep Criteria for a strategy to keep COCO22 levels “reasonably” low levels “reasonably” low

A strategy should support A strategy should support sustainable growth in the world sustainable growth in the world economy economy

Improvements in global energy Improvements in global energy efficiency (E/GDP)efficiency (E/GDP)

A transition to non-fossil energy A transition to non-fossil energy sourcessources

These criteria are met in theThese criteria are met in the

““Ecologically Driven Scenario” Ecologically Driven Scenario” fromfrom

Global Energy PerspectivesGlobal Energy Perspectivesby WEC and IIASAby WEC and IIASA


Scenario assumptions related to Scenario assumptions related to energy demandenergy demand

Growth rate in global energy demand Growth rate in global energy demand of 0.8% over next century, doubling of 0.8% over next century, doubling energy use by 2100 energy use by 2100

Doubling of world population by 2100Doubling of world population by 2100 10-fold increase in world economy 10-fold increase in world economy

over next centuryover next century 1.3% annual improvement in energy 1.3% annual improvement in energy

efficiency. One would need only 20% efficiency. One would need only 20% as much energy to produce a dollar of as much energy to produce a dollar of GDP compared with today.GDP compared with today.


Recent annual energy growth Recent annual energy growth rates (1987-1996)rates (1987-1996)

5.5%

4.3%

3.2%

2.7%

1.5%

1.4%

1.1%

0.8%

India

China

Japan

Brazil

US

OECD

World

Global, 1990-2100


Assumptions related to energy Assumptions related to energy supplysupply

Global supply of new renewables (wind, Global supply of new renewables (wind, PV, hydro) would increase to 50% by PV, hydro) would increase to 50% by 21002100

Biofuels from trees, agricultural wastes, Biofuels from trees, agricultural wastes, municipal wastes, and so on would municipal wastes, and so on would account for 30% of supply by 2100account for 30% of supply by 2100

Nuclear would be phased out by 2100Nuclear would be phased out by 2100 Coal, oil, and natural gas would fall to Coal, oil, and natural gas would fall to

18% of global supply from its present 18% of global supply from its present value of 80%value of 80%

COCO22 emissions would fall by 2/3 by 2100 emissions would fall by 2/3 by 2100


Mtoe

Energy supply: The global Energy supply: The global transition to non-fossil energytransition to non-fossil energy

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SolarHydroBiomassNuclearN. GasCoalOil


Photovoltaics (PV) produce Photovoltaics (PV) produce power with no emissions or power with no emissions or moving partsmoving parts


The use of wind machines is The use of wind machines is growing rapidly around the growing rapidly around the worldworld


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Rapid growth required in the Rapid growth required in the use of renewable energy use of renewable energy sourcessources

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Use of biofuels must increase — Use of biofuels must increase — sustainably — to over 5 times its sustainably — to over 5 times its present value by 2100 (1.6% growth present value by 2100 (1.6% growth per year)per year)

Hydro must increase to 3 times its Hydro must increase to 3 times its present value by 2100 (1.2% growth present value by 2100 (1.2% growth per year)per year)



PV and wind must grow to 45% of PV and wind must grow to 45% of global supply by 2100 global supply by 2100

PV and wind must grow initially at PV and wind must grow initially at about 12% per year, slowing to 6% about 12% per year, slowing to 6% by 2050, and then to about 2 to 3% by 2050, and then to about 2 to 3% per year through the year 2100per year through the year 2100

Global data show that electricity from Global data show that electricity from PVs and wind has been growing at PVs and wind has been growing at about 20% per year for the past 15 about 20% per year for the past 15 years.years.


From the viewpoint of non-carbon energy sources, the future looks promising.

Global growth in these two vital sources of renewable energy is on track to meet the needs of a growing world economy.


Mtc

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Resulting carbon dioxide Resulting carbon dioxide emissionsemissions(1990 through 2100)(1990 through 2100)

Year


COCO22 concentration in an concentration in an ecologically driven futureecologically driven future

In this aggressive scenario, the CO2 concentration would peak at about 450 parts per million (ppm) -- less than a doubling -- in the last quarter of the 21st century, and then start declining.


In sum, a “thinking long term” In sum, a “thinking long term” strategy would...strategy would...

Develop a century-long energy and Develop a century-long energy and climate strategy to hold COclimate strategy to hold CO22 concentration below a doublingconcentration below a doubling

Improve global energy efficiency Improve global energy efficiency (reduce E/GDP) to hold energy (reduce E/GDP) to hold energy growth to under 1%growth to under 1%

Support rapid phasing in of non-fossil Support rapid phasing in of non-fossil energy sourcesenergy sources


National governments should National governments should support “thinking long term” support “thinking long term” strategiesstrategies

Reform energy pricesReform energy prices to make them to make them more closely reflect the costs they more closely reflect the costs they impose on society. Benefits:impose on society. Benefits:

Encourage efficiency and make more Encourage efficiency and make more economic the renewable energy economic the renewable energy sources.sources.

Should also lower taxes on income, Should also lower taxes on income, savings, and investment to offset savings, and investment to offset higher energy prices. higher energy prices.


National governments should National governments should support “thinking long term” support “thinking long term” strategies (continued)strategies (continued)

ResearchResearch. Support research on . Support research on renewable energy sources and the renewable energy sources and the infrastructure needs to phase them infrastructure needs to phase them into the economy.into the economy.

Creating marketsCreating markets. Use government . Use government purchasing power to create markets, purchasing power to create markets, bring down prices, and get bring down prices, and get experience with the use of renewable experience with the use of renewable energy technologies including energy technologies including hydrogen and fuel cells.hydrogen and fuel cells.


In short, there are three areas In short, there are three areas for major federal emphasis ...for major federal emphasis ...

Reforming energy pricing to “level Reforming energy pricing to “level the playing field”the playing field”

Supporting basic research on new Supporting basic research on new technologies, andtechnologies, and

Using federal purchasing to expand Using federal purchasing to expand markets and reduce costs.markets and reduce costs.


http://www.wri.org/wri/

Addendum slides Addendum slides for narrated for narrated streaming streaming presentationpresentation

WORLDRESOURCESINSTITUTE Climate Web sitesClimate Web sites

www.ipcc.ch/www.ipcc.ch/“The Intergovernmental Panel on “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”Climate Change”

www.usgcrp.gov/www.usgcrp.gov/“US Global Change Research “US Global Change Research Program”Program”

globalchange.gov/globalchange.gov/“Gateway to Global Change Data”“Gateway to Global Change Data”

www.globalchange.org/www.globalchange.org/“Global Change, Electronic Edition”“Global Change, Electronic Edition”

WORLDRESOURCESINSTITUTE Global energy Web sitesGlobal energy Web sites

www/iiasa.ac.at/cgi-bin/ecs/www/iiasa.ac.at/cgi-bin/ecs/book_dyn/bookcnt.pvbook_dyn/bookcnt.pv““Global Energy Perspectives”Global Energy Perspectives”

www.undp.org/seed/eap/www.undp.org/seed/eap/“United Nations Development “United Nations Development Programme”Programme”

www.worldenergy.org/www.worldenergy.org/“World Energy Council”“World Energy Council”

www.undp.org/seed/eap/activities/www.undp.org/seed/eap/activities/wea/wea/ “World Energy Assessment” “World Energy Assessment”

THINKING LONG TERM:THINKING LONG TERM:Confronting Global Climate Confronting Global Climate ChangeChange

Written by James J. MacKenzieWritten by James J. MacKenzieSenior Associate, World Resources Senior Associate, World Resources InstituteInstitute

Narrated by Navroz DubashNarrated by Navroz DubashAssociate, World Resources InstituteAssociate, World Resources Institute

Documents

THINKING LONG TERM: Confronting Global Climate Change