Thinking about vulnerability and adaptive capacity

Scale of analysis (and action)

Adaptation research has scaled up to the community level• Systems research• Structural parameters/slow variables

What does community level illuminate?• Articulation and linkages• Obscures heterogeneity

Current challenges to AC as an analytical conceptIs more than assets• How do people mobilize AC?• Institutions are key• Measure vs. characterize

ACs do not exist in isolation• Synergies and trade-offs

Generic and specific ACs• Identify specific risks• What are the priority investments?

AC can be enhanced and eroded

AC implications of policy responsesEcological and social AC Constrain local responses

Mask feedbacks Problem framing

Adger et. al 2011

Methods - Trajectories -

Value of past as analogueTensions between history and unknown futureCultural logic of adaptation

TrajectoriesDirectionalityHistorical depthInflection points

NE BrazilCharacterizing riskMeasuring trendsExplaining trends

Value of understanding trajectoriesIdentify what works/inflection pointsMeasure adaptive capacitiesDetermine clustering of ACs