ThinkHQ polling

8/9/2019 ThinkHQ polling

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thinkhq-polling 1/13

.

LI I I

.

I I I .

I I I .

P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C . .

Copyright © 2015 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved

The contents of this document are the exclusive property of ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc., and may not be used in any manner whatsoever,without the prior written consent of ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. No license under any copyright is hereby granted or implied.

Alberta’s Public Affairs Monitor

VOICE OF

ALBERTA

April 2015





.

.

.

.

P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C .

CONFIDENTIAL: VOA Provincial Election April 2015Copyright © 2015 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved

REGIONAL SAMPLE SIZES &

MARGINS OF ERROR

Total Interviews(Unweighted)

(n)

Total Interviews(Weighted)

(n)

Margin of Error(Associated with a probability

sample of this size)

ALBERTA TOTAL

Calgary CMA

Edmonton CMA

North

Central

South

1835

627

552

199

225

232

1835

615

560

237

221

202

+/- 2.3

+/- 3.9

+/- 4.2

+/- 7.3

+/- 6.4

+/- 6.3



.

.

.

.



STUDY SAMPLE FRAME ANALYTICS

- BY LAST PROVINCIAL VOTE -

Actual Vote

April 2012Election

Sample Unweighted(n)%

Sample WeightedDecided vote

(n)%

Progressive Conservative 44%(598)

41.5%

(598)

44%

Wildrose 34%(485)33.6%

(461)34%

Liberal 10%(148)

10.3%

(133)

10%

NDP 10% (170)11.6%

(140)10%

Other 2%(41)2.8%

(29)2%



.

.

.

.



PROVINCIAL ELECTION DYNAMICS-ATTITUDINALS-

Unsure

9%

6%

% Albertans

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Alberta needs to have a

strong opposition to

keep the governmenthonest

87% 6%

I could change my mind

about who to vote for

“The following is a list of statements that SOME PEOPLE might say about the upcoming provincial election. Would you say that you

AGREE or DISAGREE with each?”



.

.

.

.



PROVINCIAL POLITICAL HORSERACE

Initial Vote Leaners Included

“If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties’ candidate would you, yourself, be most likely to

support?”

Some other party

% Albertans

Undecided

*Note: 4% say they

would not vote



.

.

.

.




- DECIDED VOTE -

“If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties’ candidate would you, yourself, be most likely tosupport?”

Some other party

% Decided Voters (n=1440)

Initial Undecided

25%



.

.

.

.



PROVINCIAL POLITICAL

HORSERACE

- THQ TRACKING -

E l e c t i o

n 2 0

1 2

O c t ‘ 1 2

D e c ‘ 1

2

F e b ‘ 1

3

A p r ‘ 1

3

J u n e

‘ 1 3

S e p t

‘ 1 3

N o v ‘ 1

3

J a n ‘ 1

4

M a r ' 1

4

M a y ' 1

4

J u l y ' 1

4

O c t ' 1

4

D e c ' 1 4

J a n ' 1 5

A p r ' 1

5

PC WR NDP Lib AB Oth

% Decided Vote



.

.

.

.




- DECIDED VOTE - “If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties’ candidate would you, yourself, be most likely to

support?”

Some other party


Initial Undecided

23%

EDMONTON (CITY PROPER)

MARGIN OF ERROR(Based on a probability


(+/-5.2%)

Low

36.8%

16.8%

15.8%

High

47.2%

27.2%

26.2%

7.8% 18.2%

— 7.2%



.

.

.

.




- EDMONTON(CITY) TRACKING -

2 0 1 2

E l x n

O c t

‘ 1 2

D e c ‘ 1

2

F e b ‘ 1

3

A p r ‘ 1 3

J u n e

‘ 1 3

S e p t

‘ 1 3

N o v ‘ 1

3

J a n ’ 1 4

M a r ' 1

4

M a y

' 1 4

J u l y ' 1

4

O c t ' 1

4

D e c ' 1

4

J a n ' 1 5

A p r ' 1

5


% Decided Vote



.

.

.

.




- DECIDED VOTE - “If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties’ candidate would you, yourself, be most likely to

support?”

Some other party


Initial Undecided28%

CALGARY (CITY PROPER)

MARGIN OF ERROR(Based on a probability


(+/-4.7%)

Low

26.3%

22.3%

14.3%

High

35.7%

31.7%

23.7%

9.3% 18.7%

2.3% 11.7%



.

.

.

.




- CALGARY(CITY) TRACKING -

2 0 1 2

E l x n

O c t ‘ 1 2

D e c ‘ 1

2

F e b ‘ 1

3

A p r ‘ 1 3

J u n e

‘ 1 3

S e p t

‘ 1 3

N o v ‘ 1

3

J a n ’ 1 4

M a r ' 1

4

M a y

' 1 4

J u l y ' 1

4

O c t ' 1

4

D e c ' 1 4

J a n ' 1 5

A p r ' 1

5


% Decided Vote



.

LI I I

.

I I I .

I I I .

P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C . .

Copyright © 2015 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved

The contents of this document are the exclusive property of ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc., and may not be used in any manner whatsoever,without the prior written consent of ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. No license under any copyright is hereby granted or implied.

For more information, please contact:Marc Henry, PresidentThinkHQ Public Affairs [email protected]

Want to have your say about topics and issuesthat affect Albertans?

Voice of Alberta is a rapidly growing online community of Albertans who

are interested in shaping the future of their community, province andnation. We bring current political, business and social issues to you and

ask for your views. In return, we share the results in publications likethe one you’re reading now, through traditional and social media, and in

member-exclusive newsletters.

Join and have your say at:

www.voiceofalberta.com

Documents

ThinkHQ polling