19
7 th South East Europe Dialogue Thessaloniki, 19-20 June 2013

Thessaloniki, 19-20 June 2013 · Arpechim units are closing down Lietuva demand and poor Mongstad Harburg Rome, Pantano Cremon a Porto Marghera Berre Reichstett Gonfreville Dunkirk

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Page 1: Thessaloniki, 19-20 June 2013 · Arpechim units are closing down Lietuva demand and poor Mongstad Harburg Rome, Pantano Cremon a Porto Marghera Berre Reichstett Gonfreville Dunkirk

7th South East Europe Dialogue

Thessaloniki, 19-20 June 2013

Page 2: Thessaloniki, 19-20 June 2013 · Arpechim units are closing down Lietuva demand and poor Mongstad Harburg Rome, Pantano Cremon a Porto Marghera Berre Reichstett Gonfreville Dunkirk

Other HO ADO Petrol

2,82,9 3,0

3,1 3,23,3 3,4

3,5

3,63,7 3,8 3,9

4,0 3,9 4,1

3,73,3

2,9

-36%

2.4%

2012

9.1

2.2

2.0

2.1

2011

10.7

2.3

2.9

2.2

2010

11.7

2.5

2.9

2.5

2009

13.5

3.2

3.4

2.8

2008

13.7

3.8

3.0

3.0

2007

13.9

3.8

3.5

2.7

2006

14.4

3.8

4.0

2.6

2005

14.1

3.8

3.8

2.6

2004

14.1

3.9

3.8

2.7

2003

14.4

3.9

4.2

2.7

2002

13.6

4.0

3.6

2.4

2001

13.0

3.8

3.5

2.3

2000

12.8

3.9

3.3

2.3

1999

12.4

3.7

3.2

2.2

1998

12.4

4.0

3.1

2.2

1997

12.1

4.0

2.8

2.2

1996

11.8

4.0

2.7

2.2

1995

11.1

3.9

2.3

2.0

•Total domestic fuels consumption has declined by 36% since its peak in 2006 and has returned to the levels of 1990

Fuels consumption evolution (MMT) – Domestic market

Market Environment: Greece

Page 3: Thessaloniki, 19-20 June 2013 · Arpechim units are closing down Lietuva demand and poor Mongstad Harburg Rome, Pantano Cremon a Porto Marghera Berre Reichstett Gonfreville Dunkirk

Arpechim

Lietuva

Mongstad

Harburg

Rome,

Pantano

Cremon

a

Porto Marghera

Berre

Reichstett Gonfreville

Dunkirk

Petit Couronne

Coryton

Milford

Haven

Lindsey

Teesside

Humber

•Many refineries in Europe are closing down, sold or used as storage hubs due to oversupply, reduced demand and poor margins

•This trend seems to be continued in the medium term

•The situation is similar in North America, Japan and Australia, where units are closing down

Refineries that have stopped or reduced operation or are up for sale due to poor results

Falconara

Gela

Whitegate Wilhelmshaven

Paramo

Market Environment: Europe

Page 4: Thessaloniki, 19-20 June 2013 · Arpechim units are closing down Lietuva demand and poor Mongstad Harburg Rome, Pantano Cremon a Porto Marghera Berre Reichstett Gonfreville Dunkirk

•The situation is aggravated by the opening of new complex units in developing countries …

•… a significant part of which will affect our region

Capacity decrease in OECD countries

Capacity increase in developing countries

Evolution of global refining capacity (kbpd) Some refining projects in the Middle East (kbpd)

Estimated increase in capacity from upgrading projects in Russia (kbpd)

2012 2013 2014 2015-

2020

Total

Rosneft 130 352 48 56 586

Tatneft 194 - - - 194

Gazprom - - 126 22 148

Lukoil 40 42 - 30 112

Others - 18 30 128 176

Total 364 412 204 236 1,216

2,000

1,600

Market Environment: The World

Page 5: Thessaloniki, 19-20 June 2013 · Arpechim units are closing down Lietuva demand and poor Mongstad Harburg Rome, Pantano Cremon a Porto Marghera Berre Reichstett Gonfreville Dunkirk

•These developments dictate the new business model in the European refining sector:

• High complexity of plants

• Competitive operating costs

• Extraversion / integration

• Healthy cash flows

ONLY THE FITTEST WILL SURVIVE!

Market Environment: The New Business Model

Page 6: Thessaloniki, 19-20 June 2013 · Arpechim units are closing down Lietuva demand and poor Mongstad Harburg Rome, Pantano Cremon a Porto Marghera Berre Reichstett Gonfreville Dunkirk

Aviation & Bunkering

C&I (Construction, wholesale)

Retail

3rd party Imports

60-65% 25-30%

0-10%

Greek Refining capacity: 25MMT

Domestic market: 12.5MMT

ELPE Group subsidiaries:

3.5MMT (30%)

MOH captive market: 2.5MMT

(20%)

Independent marketing

companies: 5MMT (40%)

ELPE exports: 7MMT

3rd party exports:

5MMT

16MMT

ELPE Group subsidiaries:

2MMT

24%

Other

5%

Bunkers 25%

Jet 7%

Gasoil

21%

Diesel 18%

Gasoline

Greek market product breakdown

Specialty markets (PPC, public

sector): 1.5MMT (10%)

Greek Petroleum Market Overview

Page 7: Thessaloniki, 19-20 June 2013 · Arpechim units are closing down Lietuva demand and poor Mongstad Harburg Rome, Pantano Cremon a Porto Marghera Berre Reichstett Gonfreville Dunkirk

HELLENIC PETROLEUM Corporate Identity

Our Vision

To be a leading regional Energy Group with sustainable growth embedded in our strategy

Our Mission

“Energy for Life” To produce and offer top quality products and services in the energy sector, serving our customers in the Greek and international markets with efficiency and innovation

Our Principles

1. Safety is always our first priority 2. We offer Value to our Customers 3. We operate Responsibly towards Society and the Environment 4. We respect our Colleagues and Partners promoting Meritocracy, Teamwork, Innovation, Continuous

Improvement and Results Orientation 5. We invest for Sustainable Development 6. We continuously enhance Competitiveness 7. We apply high standards of Corporate Governance 8. We create value for our Shareholders and focus on the continuous improvement of our Results and

Cash Flows

Our Attributes

Integrity, Professionalism, Commitment, Judgment, Initiative, Extraversion

Page 8: Thessaloniki, 19-20 June 2013 · Arpechim units are closing down Lietuva demand and poor Mongstad Harburg Rome, Pantano Cremon a Porto Marghera Berre Reichstett Gonfreville Dunkirk

Coastal location of refineries ensures wide crude oil sourcing options

Cost advantaged to supply SEE/East Med markets with end-products

Opportunities for regional consolidation and synergies on logistics footprint

ROMANIA

TURKEY

BULGARIA

SERBIA

CYPRUS

FYROM

GREECE

ALBANIA

BOSNIA

MONTENEGRO

Refining

Marketing

Power & Gas 11.0

8.1 7.3

11.0

13.9

7.0

Aspropygros Elefsina Thessaloniki

NCI Solomon

Nelson/Solomon complexity – benchmark margins ($/bbl, average 2011-12)

5 -3 4

HELLENIC PETROLEUM At A Glance

Page 9: Thessaloniki, 19-20 June 2013 · Arpechim units are closing down Lietuva demand and poor Mongstad Harburg Rome, Pantano Cremon a Porto Marghera Berre Reichstett Gonfreville Dunkirk

Refining, Supply & Trading

Domestic Marketing

International Marketing

Petrochemicals

Power & Gas

DESCRIPTION METRICS

• Exploration assets in Egypt: West Obayed (30%),

Mesaha (30%)

• Recently upgraded refining asset base:

– Aspropyrgos (FCC, 145kbpd)

– Elefsina (HDC, 100kbpd)

– Thessaloniki (HS, 95kbpd)

• Owner of only refinery in FYROM

• Capacity: 16MMT

• NCI: 9.3

• Market share: 65%

• Tankage: 7MM3

• Leading position in all market channels (Retail,

Commercial, Aviation, Bunkering)

• c.1,900 petrol stations

• 29% market share

• Sales volumes: 4MMT

• Presence in Cyprus, Montenegro, Serbia, Bulgaria

• Significant advantage on supply chain/vertical

integration

• c.280 petrol stations

• Sales volumes: 1MMT

• Sole producer and main marketer in Greece with

strong export orientation

• PP value chain integrated with refineries

• Capacity (PP): 220 KMT

• Second largest IPP in Greece (JV with Edison/EdF) • Capacity: 810 MW

(CCGT)

• 35% in Greece’s incumbent NatGas supply company • Volumes (2012): 4.2BCM

Exploration & Production

HELLENIC PETROLEUM Value Chain

Page 10: Thessaloniki, 19-20 June 2013 · Arpechim units are closing down Lietuva demand and poor Mongstad Harburg Rome, Pantano Cremon a Porto Marghera Berre Reichstett Gonfreville Dunkirk

HELLENIC

PETROLEUM

EKO S.A.

(and

subsidiaries) HPI AG

HELLENIC

FUELS S.A. HP SERBIA LTD

HP BULGARIA

LTD

HPM CYPRUS

LTD

JPK

MONTENEGRO

ELPET

VALKANIKI Shipping

companies

ELPEDISON

B.V.

HPF plc

(treasury)

Domestic Marketing International Marketing

DEPA

Group

Gas supply,

transportation &

distribution

50%

Power Generation &

Trading Asprofos

S.A.

Engineering Services

PetChems

(BOPP film)

DIAXON

S.A.

35%

Gas & Power associates

63%

VARDAX

OKTA

International Refining Other

80%

82%

HELLENIC PETROLEUM Summary Group Structure

Page 11: Thessaloniki, 19-20 June 2013 · Arpechim units are closing down Lietuva demand and poor Mongstad Harburg Rome, Pantano Cremon a Porto Marghera Berre Reichstett Gonfreville Dunkirk

PETROLA ( Elefsina

Refinery)

DEP &

DEPEKY (Greek E&P)

ELDA ( Aspropyrgos

Refinery)

ESSO -

PAPPAS ( Thessaloniki

Refinery)

PETROLA ( Elefsina

Refinery)

DEP &

DEPEKY (Greek E&P)

ELDA ( Aspropyrgos

Refinery)

ESSO -

PAPPAS ( Thessaloniki

Refinery)

1998 1960 –

1998 2003 2007 2008 2009 2013

Elpedison: 50/50 JV

with Italy’s Edison,

in Power

Libyan upstream

concessions sold to

GDF Suez for $170m

2010

Thessaloniki Refinery

upgrade completed

Sale of 70% stake in

W. Obayed upstream

concession in Egypt

Acquisition of BP’s

Ground Fuels business

in Greece

Merger with

Petrola

Hellas

Elpedison’s 2nd CCGT

Plant (420MW) in

commercial operation

Shareholding events

Listing of

new Group in

ASE/LSE

Greek Government

announces its

intention to divest

its shareholding in

ELPE

2011

DESFA

privatisation

process at final

stage

Elefsina

upgraded refinery

commercial

operation

POIH becomes

strategic investor

with 25% stake

Float

22%

Greek State

36%

POIH 42%

2012

HELLENIC PETROLEUM Group History Milestones

Page 12: Thessaloniki, 19-20 June 2013 · Arpechim units are closing down Lietuva demand and poor Mongstad Harburg Rome, Pantano Cremon a Porto Marghera Berre Reichstett Gonfreville Dunkirk

• A €10bn turnover Group, with leading position in SEE and East Med

• Successful implementation of a €3bn investment plan delivering €200m incremental EBITDA

Transformation initiatives with €230m full year benefits enhancing competitiveness and an upside of €70m

“Fit-for-purpose” Group structure and organisation

• Strong financial performance

Achievement of strategic targets, despite Greek crisis, industry “black swans” and regional challenges

Capex cycle completed signaling end to higher than target gearing as new investment returns kick in

Successful refinancing of €1.2bn in Dec 2012-Jan 2013, partly with own funds

Successful execution of inaugural €500m Eurobond issuance

o Books closed early (24hrs) due to strong demand at €3.5bn, an oversubscription of 7 times

o Significant interest from international investors, exceeding 80% of order book

HELLENIC PETROLEUM: A diversified regional energy player, having completed its significant transformation strategy, well positioned for earnings growth with no capex risk

Page 13: Thessaloniki, 19-20 June 2013 · Arpechim units are closing down Lietuva demand and poor Mongstad Harburg Rome, Pantano Cremon a Porto Marghera Berre Reichstett Gonfreville Dunkirk
Page 14: Thessaloniki, 19-20 June 2013 · Arpechim units are closing down Lietuva demand and poor Mongstad Harburg Rome, Pantano Cremon a Porto Marghera Berre Reichstett Gonfreville Dunkirk

Vac

uu

m

Un

it

Atm

osp

her

ic D

isti

llati

on

Hyd

rocr

acke

r (U

OP

)

Fle

xico

ker

(Ex

xon

Mo

bil)

Ke

rose

ne

Swe

ete

nin

g

New units, Sulphur, Amine, SWS

Die

sel

De

sulp

hu

riza

tio

n

LPG

Naphtha

Jet Fuel

Auto Diesel

Petcoke or Flexigas

Sulphur

Propane

Heating Diesel

Marine Diesel

Ligh

t En

ds

Re

cove

ry

Crude

Existing Units

New Units

Hydrogen (Haldor Topsoe)

20kbpd

40kbpd

c.50% of CDU output

• Nelson complexity raised to 8.1

• All emissions significantly reduced (e.g. SO2 by 70% and PM by 84%)

100kbpd

45kbpd

Elefsina Refinery: Summary Configuration

Page 15: Thessaloniki, 19-20 June 2013 · Arpechim units are closing down Lietuva demand and poor Mongstad Harburg Rome, Pantano Cremon a Porto Marghera Berre Reichstett Gonfreville Dunkirk

74%

53% 55%

35%

6%

30%

100%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 Pro

forma(*) over operational availability (i.e. post start-up)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan-0

7

Apr-

07

Jul-07

Oct-

07

Jan-0

8

Apr-

08

Jul-08

Oct-

08

Jan-0

9

Apr-

09

Jul-09

Oct-

09

Jan-1

0

Apr-

10

Jul-10

Oct-

10

Jan-1

1

Apr-

11

Jul-11

Oct-

11

Jan-1

2

Apr-

12

Jul-12

Oct-

12

Jan-1

3

Apr-

13

Aspropyrgos Elefsina

$/T

ULSD – HSFO spread Cracking margins ($/bbl) – Aspropyrgos vs Elefsina

Elefsina Utilisation rate

*

Upgrade impact on product yield million tonnes / year

Average 2011-12 ($/bbl)

Aspropyrgos 3.78

Elefsina 4.95

0

100

200

300

400

Jan 09

Apr

09

Jul 0

9

Oct

09

Jan 10

Apr

10

Jul 1

0

Oct

10

Jan 11

Apr

11

Jul 1

1

Oct

11

Jan 12

Apr

12

Jul 1

2

Oct

12

Jan 13

Apr

13

Elefsina Refinery: Key Economics Transformational investment significantly enhancing competitiveness

Page 16: Thessaloniki, 19-20 June 2013 · Arpechim units are closing down Lietuva demand and poor Mongstad Harburg Rome, Pantano Cremon a Porto Marghera Berre Reichstett Gonfreville Dunkirk

26%15%

32%45%

9% 8%

23% 21%

10% 11%

Pre upgrade Current

Other

Gasoline

Jet

Diesel/Gas oil

Fuel oil

15% 11%

10%

0%

75%

89%

Pre Upgrade Current

High sulphur

Medium sulphur

Low sulphur

47%

24%

11%

11%

17%25%

64%

Pre upgrade Current

Other

Jet

Diesel/Gas oil

Fuel oil

Crude slate — Group-wide Product slate — Group-wide

Crude slate — Elefsina Product slate — Elefsina

41%

59%

100%

Pre upgrade Current

High sulphur

Medium sulphur

Significant impact of refinery upgrades on the Group’s crude and product slate, thus delivering strong cash flows

Page 17: Thessaloniki, 19-20 June 2013 · Arpechim units are closing down Lietuva demand and poor Mongstad Harburg Rome, Pantano Cremon a Porto Marghera Berre Reichstett Gonfreville Dunkirk

Refined Oil products balances 2000-2025f MMT / year

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet/Kero Diesel Gasoil LSFO HSFO

Bal

ance

s, M

t .

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Surplus

Deficit

Source Wood Mackenzie, 2012

Group product balances 2011-2013 pro forma MMT / year

MD Naphtha FO MOGAS

2011 2013 Pro forma

LONG

SHORT

32%

10% 37%

20%

Domestic Oil products demand 2008-2012 MMT / year

Top European markets with expected demand increase (2013-2022) - MMT

2011

9.239

2010

10.125

7.690

2012 2008

10.832

2009

11.413

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

SER SLV HUN ROM BEL CZ BUL GR TUR NL UKR POL

Regional Market: Increased middle distillates yield leveraging on regional market dynamics

Page 18: Thessaloniki, 19-20 June 2013 · Arpechim units are closing down Lietuva demand and poor Mongstad Harburg Rome, Pantano Cremon a Porto Marghera Berre Reichstett Gonfreville Dunkirk

Markets (sales premia varying across channels)

Refining (Med benchmark returns & operations performance)

Refined Products (16.0 MMT)

Imported Products (1-1.5 MMT)

Aviation & Bunkering (Med competitive pricing)

Exports, Intra-Group (Platts Med FOB based + premia)

Domestic market (Import parity pricing)

6 MMT

3 MMT

Exports, 3rd parties (Platts Med FOB based)

2 MMT

5 MMT

Aspropyrgos NCI 11.0 145kbpd

FCC

Thessaloniki NCI 7.3 95kbpd

Hydroskimming

Elefsina NCI 8.1

100kbpd HDC

16 MMT

1-1.5 MMT

$ / €

Total ELPE capacity

Greek Refining, Supply & Trading Economics: USD based value chain with significant trading returns complementing refining; export sales expected to exceed 50%, with domestic market premia accounting for less than 30% of EBITDA

Page 19: Thessaloniki, 19-20 June 2013 · Arpechim units are closing down Lietuva demand and poor Mongstad Harburg Rome, Pantano Cremon a Porto Marghera Berre Reichstett Gonfreville Dunkirk

• Operational Excellence

– Optimize South hub refining operations

– Adapt Domestic marketing to current environment

– Maintain competitiveness improvement momentum

• Rebalance exposure to Greek market

– Grow trading capabilities on the back of refining assets

– Develop regional footprint strategy (wholesale/retail)

• Leverage business portfolio

– Maximise value out of divestment of 35% in gas incumbent (DEPA/DESFA)

– Optimise value generation for all our businesses

• Develop our people and continue to build culture of excellence

Business Priorities Financial Targets

• Improve profitability

– Medium term EBITDA growth to €700m pa

– Deliver €200-350m FCF pa

• Deleverage Group

– Reduce Debt/EBITDA < 2 within 3 years

– Decrease gearing to D/E < 0.75

• Diversify funding mix

– Increase capital markets financing

– Expand trade financing

Strategy 2013-2017: Business strategy focuses on operational improvements, risk management and cash flow maximisation