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Theory of Change
DIY-Learn-theory-change DIYLearn
Theory of Change
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https://www.open.edu/openlearncreate/course/view.php?id=2214
Theory of Change
Copyright © 2016 The Open University
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
stored in a retrieval system, transmitted or utilised in any form or
by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or
otherwise, without written permission from the publisher.
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Theory of Change
Contents Introduction 1 The purpose and benefits of a Theory of
Change model 2 Reaching a goal using the Theory of Change
model 3 The participatory process of identifying the
Theory of Change for a programme or idea 3.1 Working with stakeholders
4 Using assumptions to help identify key risks Summary Self-assessment questions (SAQs) End of Module Quiz References and acknowledgements Solutions
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Theory of Change
IntroductionThis module will support your understanding and use of the Theory
of Change Tool from the DIY Toolkit. You should look at the
Theory of Change template before working through the
module. You will find it helpful to have a printout of the Theory of
Change template with you while you work through this module.
The Theory of Change is a tool that helps explain the relationship
between a development problem being addressed and the
strategies used to address it, showing why and how change takes
place.
A Theory of Change can come in many different formats, but
commonly involves a diagram containing boxes and arrows laid out
to show how elements fit together, and why this arrangement
should work.
Carrying out a Theory of Change should be a collaborative and
consultative process. It connects stakeholders, clarifying a
common pathway to a shared goal, promoting understanding of
stakeholders’ roles and thus a sense of ownership among those
involved. It is also a tool to enhance accountability, explaining the
value in particular activities and so justifying the use of resources.
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Theory of Change
A key element of the Theory of Change is the identification of
assumptions. Analysing and talking through these assumptions
can help you to identify and plan for potential risks.
This module provides an overview of the Theory of Change model
and an introduction to its value and use.
Learning outcomesAfter studying this module, you should be able to:
describe the purpose and benefits of using a Theory of
Change model (SAQ 1)
identify the steps involved in reaching a goal using the
Theory of Change model (SAQ 2)
lead a participatory process of identifying the Theory of
Change for a programme or idea (SAQ 3)
recognise how identifying assumptions helps to
manage risks (SAQ 4).
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Theory of Change
1 The purpose and benefits of a Theory of Change modelDevelopment is a results-driven sector. Those involved in
delivering development projects are accountable to a range of
stakeholders, including people directly affected – primary
stakeholders or beneficiaries – as well as partners, donors and
groups within their own organisations. A rigorous approach to a
development problem involves critical analysis of all of the key
steps that must take place in order to achieve the desired social
change.
The Theory of Change is termed a ‘theory’ because development
pathways are complicated and can be difficult to predict. For the
same reason, throughout this module the word ‘model’ is used to
describe the process or the tool. Through developing a Theory of
Change, you can identify and analyse a range of interrelated
elements to help ensure you are on the right path. You can also
challenge key assumptions and mitigate risks. A well-planned
Theory of Change can help ensure that the project framework is fit
for purpose and therefore more likely to lead to the desired
changes.
Critically, a Theory of Change must be the result of an effective
participatory process where stakeholders work together to define
and refine the model. The stakeholders are then more likely to own
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Theory of Change
the result, increasing the likelihood of project success as well as
enhancing accountability.
Figure 1 summarises the key purposes and benefits of a Theory of
Change.
Figure 1: Purposes and values of a Theory of Change
Activity 1Allow around 10-15 minutes for this activity
Now have a closer look at the Theory of Change template used in
the DIY Toolkit. As you do so, think about a project you are familiar
with or have been involved in. What was the ultimate aim or goal of
the project? Can you briefly identify various elements of the project
design that could fit within the template?
You will work through the Theory of Change in more detail later in
the module. For now, the point of this first activity is to begin to
think about how elements of the Theory of Change are sequentially
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Theory of Change
linked. Long-term change is the result of a sequence of steps.
Each step involves assumptions about people’s behaviours and
motivations as well as external factors that may be beyond the
control of stakeholders.
Note your thoughts in the box below.
Provide your answer...
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Theory of Change
2 Reaching a goal using the Theory of Change modelThis section will take you through the Theory of Change model
using a development example – the problem of high maternal
mortality (deaths of women in childbirth) in sub-Saharan Africa.
The specific challenges are that expectant mothers often do not
have access to specialist obstetric care facilities and deliver their
babies at home without specialist care or in facilities without
trained staff or adequate equipment. Where adequate facilities do
exist, women may be unaware of the benefits of using them.
Access to specialist care during delivery can therefore relate both
to availability and awareness.
Maternal mortality was addressed in Millennium Development Goal
5 (MDG5) (United Nations, n.d.) and is now part of Sustainable
Development Goal 5: ‘Ensure healthy lives and promote wellbeing
for all at all ages’. The MDG5 goal (which was not met) was to
reduce by three-quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal
mortality ratio. (This is the ratio of the number of maternal deaths
during a given time period per 100,000 live births during the same
time period.)
Note that it is important to recognise that what follows is a learning
exercise rather than a Theory of Change process, which must, by
definition, involve other stakeholders.
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Theory of Change
Now refer to the Theory of Change template in the DIY toolkit.
Starting on the left-hand side of the template, you enter the
problem you are trying to solve. In the example of maternal
mortality, this is poor access to, or awareness of, obstetric care
facilities, insufficient trained staff and inadequate equipment in
healthcare facilities.
Moving to the right on the template, you would then identify the key
audience. In this example, there are two key audiences. The first is
women of childbearing age. The second is the health workers
involved in childbirth, from traditional birth attendants through to
midwives in healthcare facilities.
In the next box you should detail the entry point for reaching the
key audiences. In this example, this is village health workers (who
can reach women of childbearing age as well as traditional birth
attendants) and district-level health officers (who are responsible
for the training of healthcare facility staff as well as the provision of
equipment).
Moving further to the right you should now enter the steps needed
to bring about the change. In this example, these steps involve
training of midwives and traditional birth attendants, improved
equipment and facilities, and raising awareness among women of
childbearing age to know when to seek assistance and deliver their
baby in a healthcare facility.
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Theory of Change
Of the next three columns on the right, it is often the longer-term
goal that is quite clear and implicit in the identified problem.
Activity 2Allow around 5 minutes for this activity
Can you identify the longer-term goal in the example of maternal
mortality?
Provide your answer...
View discussion - Activity 2
You may have recognised that the longer-term goal is not
necessarily the same as the direct output (or measurable effect) of
the work. In this example, the measurable effects are increased
awareness among women of childbearing age of the benefits of
delivering their babies in a healthcare facility, improved knowledge
and skills of midwives and traditional birth attendants, and
improved provision of equipment and facilities.
The wider benefits, or outcomes of the intervention, are that more
women have better-quality, specialist healthcare during childbirth.
The logic is that if women are more aware of the benefits of
delivering their babies in healthcare facilities, and if health workers
are better trained and have better equipment, then more women
receive specialist care, which contributes to a reduction in maternal
mortality.
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Theory of Change
Activity 3Allow around 15 minutes for this activity
Using the information in Section 2 and the downloadable Word version of the template shown below, try to complete a Theory of
Change for the example of maternal mortality. You can save this
Word template for future reference. At this stage, don’t worry about
completing the boxes headed ‘Key assumptions’ – you are going to
work through these in Section 4. However, if you have any ideas
about these now then do make some notes.
What is the problem you are trying to solve?
Who is your key audience?
What is your entry point for reaching your key audience?
What steps are needed to bring about change?
What is the measurable effect of your work?
What are the wider benefits of your work?
What is the long-term change you see as your goal?
Measurable effect?
Wider benefits?
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Theory of Change
Measurable effect?
Wider benefits?
Key assumptions
Key assumptions
Key assumptions
Key assumptions
Key assumptions
Key assumptions
Stakeholders
View discussion - Activity 3
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Theory of Change
3 The participatory process of identifying the Theory of Change for a programme or ideaThe example used in Section 2 was based on personal knowledge
and experience of similar interventions. However, this was for the
purposes of introducing the tool. In practice this is not an effective
way to develop a Theory of Change. One person is unlikely to fully
understand all of the issues involved, and they would not get broad
consensus about the theory if nobody else has been involved in
developing it.
Key pointA Theory of Change model is more effective if it is the result of a
participatory process that involves as wide a range of stakeholders
as practicable.
Even when you, as a development practitioner, think you have a
clear idea of the problem and what needs to be done, it is still a
good idea to begin a participatory process that sets aside your own
preconceptions. This is because:
1. you are bound to learn more from other stakeholders,
and
2. you want your stakeholders to own the process.
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Theory of Change
It is reasonable to identify the goal you are hoping to reach as well
as some ideas about the problem, otherwise it would be difficult to
assemble the appropriate stakeholders. It is likely that you will also
have ideas and options about how to address the problem. But
from there it is critical to develop the Theory of Change in a
participatory way.
Normally this will involve inviting stakeholders to a planning
session to develop the ideas further and agree on a way forward.
Your stakeholders may be
primary: those directly affected by the intervention
being planned, or
secondary: those affected indirectly.
Activity 4Allow around 5 minutes for this activity
The Theory of Change used in Section 2 identifies two key
audiences and mentions other groups but does not list possible
stakeholders. Can you list groups or individuals that you would
consider as primary and secondary stakeholders who could be part
of a participatory process of developing the project further,
including defining the Theory of Change?
Use the text boxes below to create your two lists.
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Theory of Change
Primary stakeholders
Provide your answer...
Secondary stakeholders
Provide your answer...
View discussion - Part
3.1 Working with stakeholdersIt is not a straightforward process to identify stakeholders, let alone
gather so many together. Usually you will have to make
compromises. It is important to consult your key partners, such as
the district health officers in this case, to help identify and invite
your other potential stakeholders. You need also to consider the
total number of participants. Aim for no more than about 20. With
more than this it becomes difficult to ensure effective participation.
It is important to do some thorough research prior to gathering your
stakeholders. Presenting the information that is available on the
identified problem will help to set the scene (e.g. a map of
healthcare facilities, data on the distribution of health workers, and
details of other interventions that are currently taking place or
planned). A summary of evidence in favour of possible
interventions (steps needed to bring about change) can also be
useful as you move through the model.
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Theory of Change
When you hold your workshop, you can discuss the problem with
stakeholders and see if there is broad agreement about the way
the problem has been identified. You may find it useful to review
the Causes Diagram in the DIY toolkit. This can help to build a
shared understanding about the problem, its effects and possible
solutions. From there, you could break into small groups and ask
each group to complete the section in the Theory of Change on
identifying the key audience. You could then ask a representative
from each small group to present back to the whole group and
discuss any variations that have arisen.
The next step would be to try to narrow down the options and seek
agreement, perhaps using a democratic process, voting from a
choice of options (Figure 2). You could have a master version of
the template on the wall that you complete as you gain consensus,
then moving on to the next section to repeat the process. What
arises in later sections may cause you to challenge what has been
discussed in previous sections, so the process is likely to be
iterative.
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Theory of Change
Figure 2: Using group discussions to gain broad consensus (Theory of
Change workshop, Kathmandu, November 2015)
Activity 5Allow around 10-15 minutes for this activity
Imagine that you are going to facilitate a Theory of Change
workshop. You have about 20 stakeholders coming to your
workshop. Develop an outline agenda for the day and type it in the
box below.
Provide your answer...
View discussion - Activity 5
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Theory of Change
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Theory of Change
4 Using assumptions to help identify key risksAt the bottom of each column of the DIY Theory of Change
template is a box labelled ‘Key assumptions’. Assumptions help to
explain the Theory of Change process and the connections
between the measurable effects, wider benefits and the longer-
term goal, as well as how and why proposed activities are
expected to bring these changes about.
Assumptions are often taken for granted and may be based on
opinions or beliefs. However, they can also be founded on
research or best practice. Assumptions can help to catalyse a
discussion about critical questions and lead to consensus among
stakeholders, strengthening the case for the pathway selected.
Figure 3: Challenging assumptions can help avoid mistakes
Assumptions that turn out to be incorrect can lead to mistakes
(Figure 3). It is therefore very important in developing a Theory of
Change that you identify, analyse and challenge assumptions with
your stakeholders. This will lead to increased understanding and a
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Theory of Change
process of refining both assumptions and other elements of the
theoretical framework.
Case Study 1: The problems with assumptions
Grace works on a livelihoods project in Malawi funded by
development partners. The problem being addressed is high levels
of youth unemployment, so the target group is ‘out-of-school
youths’. However, there are several assumptions underlying this
definition. Grace summarises some of these below together with
their associated problems.
Assumption ProblemYouths belong to an accepted age group. The definition of youth is variable. In
Malawi it includes everyone between the ages of 10 and 35. However, the project may not be aimed at everyone in this age range. Also, there is an assumption that everyone can identify his or her own age, which is not always the case.
Out-of-school youths are in need of support.
Some young people may have opted out of school and started enterprises or are in gainful employment.
Out-of-school youths are beyond school age.
Out-of-school youths can be of school age (see above). In many countries, including Malawi, not all children enrol in, or complete, school. Sometimes children do not attend because they are unable to afford school fees, or they are required to help in the home.
Levels of youth unemployment are known.
Unemployment is not always easy to define and measure. Youths may be involved in some kind of economic activity while still not fully or gainfully
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Theory of Change
employed. In many cases systems may not be adequate to accurately measure unemployment.
Each one of Grace’s assumptions (and you may have thought of
more) could lead to discussion and debate among stakeholders.
Within a Theory of Change process, this discussion, and
subsequent refining/redefining, can contribute to a theoretical
framework that more accurately reflects the reality of a situation.
If you proceed without working through assumptions you increase
the likelihood of encountering unforeseen difficulties along the way.
Building on the example above, if Grace had not adequately
defined ‘youths’ before promoting the project in the community
there could have been confusion about eligibility or an inconsistent
approach adopted by partners, potentially risking the success of
the project.
Activity 7Allow around 10 minutes for this activity
Building on the example of maternal mortality, try to identify
possible assumptions.
View discussion - Activity 7
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Theory of Change
SummaryThis module showed you how to use a Theory of Change to help
define the relationship between a development problem and the
actions designed to address it.
A Theory of Change should be the result of an effective
participatory process, ensuring that stakeholders own the process
and the result. This enhances accountability and promotes a
greater sense of ownership, and hence increases the likelihood of
achieving the desired results.
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Theory of Change
Self-assessment questions (SAQs)SAQ 1
A friend of yours has never heard the term ‘Theory of Change’
before. In no more than two sentences, describe to her what the
Theory of Change is, what it is used for and why it is important.
Type your answer into the text box below.
Provide your answer...
View discussion - SAQ 1
SAQ 2Match each of the elements of a Theory of Change below with the
element that comes after it:
The problem
The entry point
The wider benefits
The steps needed to bring about change
The goal
The audience
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Theory of Change
SAQ 3Identify the statements below as true or false:
a. In developing a Theory of Change it is useful to gather
stakeholders together in order to get them on board
and bring them around to your point of view.
True
False
View answer - Part
View discussion - Part
b. Planning and preparing for a participatory process to
develop a Theory of Change will involve at least partly
identifying the goal and problem.
True
False
View answer - Part
View discussion - Part
c. If you develop a Theory of Change without a
participatory process it is unlikely to be effective.
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Theory of Change
True
False
View answer - Part
View discussion - Part
d. A completed Theory of Change may be the result of a
democratic process.
True
False
View answer - Part
View discussion - Part
SAQ 4In the example of maternal mortality, an assumption was made
that if women deliver their babies in a healthcare facility they will
have a better outcome (i.e. maternal mortality will be reduced).
Can you challenge this assumption? Make a few brief notes in the
text box below.
Provide your answer...
View discussion - SAQ 4
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Theory of Change
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Theory of Change
End of Module QuizCongratulations, you have now reached the end of this module!
We hope that you have enjoyed it, and have learned useful skills.
End of Module Quiz
This quiz allows you to work towards your badge for DIY Learn: Theory of Change. To achieve your badge, you must answer six
out of eight questions correctly.
You can try each question three times.
There is no limit to the number of attempts you can
have to take the whole quiz.
If you answer fewer than six questions correctly, you
will need to start again if you want to earn your badge.
Don’t worry if you are not successful first time, as you will be able
to attempt the quiz again in 24 hours.
You need to enrol in this course before you can attempt this quiz
which you can do by clicking on the Sign up / Sign in button at the
top of this page.
End of module quiz
When you have finished the quiz, click on ‘Next’ to review your
‘Summary of attempt’. Once you are happy with your answers,
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Theory of Change
click ‘Submit all and finish’. Once you have finished this quiz you
will be redirected back to this page.
Don’t forget there are another nine modules to choose from which
you can find on the DIY Learn home page.
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Theory of Change
References and acknowledgementsInspired by: Nesta (2011) Theory of Change.
This Module should be cited as follows:
DIY Learn (2016) Theory of Change, Copyright © The Open
University and Nesta
Except for third party materials and otherwise stated below, this
content is made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-
ShareAlike licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ ). The material acknowledged below is Proprietary and
used under licence for this project, and not subject to the Creative
Commons Licence. This means that this material may only be
used un-adapted within the DIY Learn project and not in any
subsequent OER versions.
Grateful acknowledgement is made to the following sources for
permission to reproduce the material in this module:
Figure 2: courtesy © Anna Childs
United Nations (n.d.) 'We can end poverty: millennium
development goals and beyond 2015', United Nations [Online].
Available at www.un.org/millenniumgoals/maternal.shtml (Accessed 12 November 2015).
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Theory of Change
Return to the DIY Learn home page
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Theory of Change
Solutions
Activity 2DiscussionThe longer-term goal is to reduce maternal mortality.
Back to - Activity 2
Activity 3DiscussionYours may not be exactly like the example here, but did you
capture the key elements summarised in the Theory of Change
below?
What is the problem you are trying to solve?
Who is your key audience?
Women
of
What is your entry point for reaching your
What steps are needed to bring about change?
What is the measurable effect of your work?
What are the wider benefits of your work?
What is the long-term change you see as your
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Theory of Change
Poor
access
to, and
awaren
ess of,
obstetri
c care,
insuffici
ent
trained
staff
and
inadeq
uate
equipm
ent in
health
facilitie
s.
childbe
aring
age
Healthc
are
workers
:
traditio
nal
birth
attenda
nt
(TBAs),
midwiv
es in
healthc
are
facilitie
s
key audience?
Village
health
workers
District
health
officers
Trainin
g of
midwiv
es and
TBAs
Improv
ed
equipm
ent and
facilitie
s
Raising
awaren
ess
among
women
of
childbe
aring
age
Increas
ed
awaren
ess
among
women
of child
bearing
age
More
women
have
better-
quality,
speciali
st
healthc
are
during
childbirt
h
goal?
Reduce
d
matern
al
mortalit
y
Measurable effect?
Improv
ed
knowle
dge
and
skills of
midwiv
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Theory of Change
es and
TBAs
Measurable effect?
Improv
ed
facilities
and
provisio
n of
equipm
ent
Key assumptions
Key assumptions
Key assumptions
Key assumptions
Key assumptions
Key assumptions
Stakeholders
Back to - Activity 3
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Theory of Change
Activity 4PartDiscussionYou may have included the following:
Primary stakeholders
Beneficiaries (e.g. representatives of women of
childbearing age)
Traditional birth attendants’ and midwives’
representatives
Local traditional leaders
Youth group representatives
Disabled people’s unions
Local women’s groups
Secondary stakeholders
Head of healthcare facilities
District-level health officials
District-level government officials
National-level Ministry of Health officials, Nursing and
Midwifery Council, etc.
Donor agencies
Local non-governmental organisations (NGOs)
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Theory of Change
International NGOs
Secondary school representatives
In identifying stakeholders you may find it useful to use the People and Connections Map from the DIY toolkit.
Back to - Part
Activity 5DiscussionIt’s a good idea to start the day by explaining the model of the
Theory of Change to your group, perhaps using an example, and
then use small-group work (Figure 2) to complete the model for
your project stage by stage, reverting to whole-group discussions
to talk through areas of contention and to challenge assumptions.
Don’t forget to build in tea and lunch breaks to keep energy levels
high. You can also consider using energisers – short physical
activities – to keep people active, and build in competitions,
perhaps for the clearest, best-worded statements that others vote
on. You can give out prizes – tasty treats, perhaps?
Back to - Activity 5
Activity 7DiscussionPage 37 of 46 21st January 2021
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Theory of Change
Building on the Theory of Change that focused on reducing
maternal mortality and identified some assumptions that could lead
to discussion and adjustment of the theoretical framework.
What is the problem you are trying to solve?
Poor
access
to, and
awaren
ess of,
obstetri
c care,
insuffici
ent
trained
Who is your key audience?
Women
of
childbe
aring
age
Health
workers
:
traditio
nal
birth
What is your entry point for reaching your key audience?
Village
health
workers
District
health
What steps are needed to bring about change?
Trainin
g of
midwiv
es and
TBAs
Improv
ed
equipm
What is the measurable effect of your work?
Increas
ed
awaren
ess
among
women
of child
bearing
age
What are the wider benefits of your work?
More
women
have
better-
quality,
speciali
st
healthc
are
during
childbirt
What is the long-term change you see as your goal?
Reduce
d
matern
al
mortalit
y
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Theory of Change
staff
and
inadeq
uate
equipm
ent in
healthc
are
facilitie
s
attenda
nts
(TBAs),
midwiv
es in
healthc
are
facilitie
s
officers ent and
facilitie
s
Raising
awaren
ess
among
women
of
childbe
aring
age
h
Measurable effect?
Improv
ed
knowle
dge
and
skills of
midwiv
es and
tradition
al birth
attenda
nts
Measurable effect
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Theory of Change
?
Improv
ed
provisio
n of
equipm
ent and
facilities
.
Key assumptions
Adequa
te staff
are in
post
Key assumptions
Everyo
ne
agrees
on the
proble
ms
involve
Key assumptions
Identifie
d staff
are
potenti
al
agents
of
Key assumptions
Resour
ces are
adequa
te to
bring
about
change
Key assumptions
Pregna
nt
women
are
reacha
ble and
receptiv
Key assumptions
Pregna
nt
women
are
persua
ded of
the
Stakeholders
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Theory of Change
d
TBAs
are
willing
to
particip
ate
change
Village
health
workers
are in
post
and
have
time to
particip
ate
s
TBAs
are
willing
to be
part of
training
e
benefits
of
deliveri
ng in a
healthc
are
facility
Back to - Activity 7
SAQ 1DiscussionAnswer: Did you use any phrases similar to those below?
It is a tool that helps define the relationship between a
development problem and the strategies used to
address it.
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Theory of Change
It is usually a diagram containing boxes and arrows
laid out to show how various elements fit together,
and why the proposed strategy should work.
It is used to explain why particular activities are
planned to take place and so justifying the use of
resources.
It connects stakeholders, clarifying a common pathway
to a shared goal, promoting understanding of
stakeholders’ roles and thus a sense of ownership
among those involved.
It includes identification of assumptions, which can
help to identify and plan for potential risks.
Back to - SAQ 1
SAQ 2AnswerThe correct matches are:
The problem
The audience
The entry point
The steps needed to bring about change
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Theory of Change
The wider benefits
The goal
Back to - SAQ 2
SAQ 3PartAnswerRight:
False
Wrong:
True
Back to - Part
DiscussionFalse: You want stakeholders to be part of the process and learn
together.
Back to - Part
Part
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Theory of Change
AnswerRight:
True
Wrong:
False
Back to - Part
DiscussionTrue: The process is likely to involve challenging assumptions
about the goal and problem, but you cannot assemble relevant
stakeholders if you do not have initial ideas about the goal and the
problem.
Back to - Part
PartAnswerRight:
True
Wrong:
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Theory of Change
False
Back to - Part
DiscussionTrue: This is probably true, although you would not be the first to
try.
Back to - Part
PartAnswerRight:
True
Wrong:
False
Back to - Part
DiscussionTrue: There is unlikely to be unanimous agreement at each step
of the way and a majority decision may sometimes be a feasible
outcome.
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Theory of Change
Back to - Part
SAQ 4DiscussionThis may seem a reasonable assumption, but whether delivery in a
healthcare facility leads to a better outcome depends on many
factors. For example:
Women may live far from healthcare facilities and the
travel may pose a risk to them.
The healthcare facility may be understaffed or staffed
by untrained personnel.
Equipment in the healthcare facility may be
inadequate.
Traditional birth attendants in village settings may be
well trained and a better option for women in some
cases.
Although many of these issues are addressed in the Theory of
Change, they may raise some questions about the timing of the
changes that need to happen. For example, improvements at the
healthcare facilities should take place before women are
encouraged to attend there to deliver their babies.
Back to - SAQ 4
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