The Worst of Times? Climate Action in the

Age of Trump Gavin Bade

Editor, Utility Dive

Presented at the 13th Annual Hawai‘i Energy Policy Forum Legislative Briefing on Energy at the Hawai‘i State Capitol -- January 12, 2017

A Tale of Two Nations?

Credit: Brookings

Renewables enjoy their best market position ever

Credit: UT Austin

Renewables, gas expected to dominate additions

But those trends alone won’t be enough

The 2°C capital stock is likely already depleted

“[F]or a 50% probability of limiting warming to 2°C, assuming other sectors play their part, no new investment in fossil electricity infrastructure

(without carbon capture) is feasible from 2017 at the latest, unless energy policy leads to early stranding of polluting assets or large scale carbon

capture deployment,” -Pfeiffer et al, Applied Energy Feb. 2016

CPP repeal could prolong coal generation

High oil & gas production could hurt renews, coal

Nuclear energy still at risk

Storage prices continue to decline

Renewables+storage can challenge peakers

New market constructions can replace peakers

Potential load defection due to solar+storage prices

“We don’t have time to [mess] around”