Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
The world’s agriculture and food transformations, SDGs and Innovation
Joachim von BraunCenter for Development Research (ZEF)
University of Bonn
Keynote at the 25th session of the Committee on Agriculture in FAO, September 26th, 2016
Overview 1. Transformation of agriculture, food
and rural-urban change 2. SDGs - agriculture, food and
nutrition policy3. Innovations for sustainable
transformation4. Conclusions
Joachim von Braun 2016 2
Source: Worldmapper 2009.
and consuming what and how much?
World population 2050(from 7 to 9 billion)
Joachim von Braun 2016 3
Urbanization challenge –and rural change
Source: UN DESA. 2014.
Joachim von Braun 2016 4
©R
eute
rs©D
OK
.fest
©AF
P
Toward a New Urbanization
• Accelerated trend: Rural-Urban linkages with people and resource flows
• Communications technology changes the rural-urban distinctions
Urban and rural become less relevant distinctions
Toward bio-sensitive cities
Joachim von Braun 2016 5
Agriculture in sectoral transformation: Conventional view
Data source: World Bank Data.
mid-1990s 2000 2010
Agriculture as share of GDP 8 5 4Ag employment as share of total employment 39 36 20
Joachim von Braun 2016 6
Agricultural GDP and employment shares decline as GDP per capita rises
Misleading focus on Agriculture GDP
• Agriculture is not just a “sector“ of production• Old problems:
– Home production in subsistence farming not appropriately accounted for
– Environmental services and dis-services not accounted for
• New trend: Agriculture increasingly includes industry and services sector elements, but they are accounted for separately from agriculture
Agriculture is much bigger than GDP suggests
Joachim von Braun 2016 7
Agriculture Transformation: “Agricultural Sector“part of “Bioeconomy“
What is Bioeconomy? … the production and use of biological
resources, technologies, and biological intelligence in all economic sectors (agriculture, food, energy, textile, construction, chemical, pharma, etc. industries).
This new reality broadens the scope of agricultural policy and practice
Joachim von Braun 2016 8
Joachim von Braun 2016Source: El-Chichakli, B., J. von Braun, C. Lang, D. Barben. 2016. 9
Transformation of small farms
• Of an estimated 570 million small farms almost three quarters located in Asia, 9% in SSA (Lowder et al. 2014)
• BUT:– Small farm transformation is dynamic– Small farms are competitive when markets are
accessible– Holdings grow more with rental markets, than does
land ownership – Part-time farming on the raise
Small farms will be with us for the long runThey are important businesses
Joachim von Braun 2016 10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
80019
5019
5519
6019
6519
7019
7519
8019
8519
9019
9520
0020
0520
1020
1520
2020
2520
3020
3520
4020
4520
5020
5520
60Yout
h ag
ed 1
5-24
(mill
ions
)
Africa Asia Latin America and the Caribbean
Policies for youth in agriculture define the future
Joachim von Braun 2016Data source: UN DESA. 2015.
11
Occupation choices as reported by youth (%) in Ethiopia
Youth: Are they interested in agriculture?
Joachim von Braun 2016 12
Source: Tekalign Guta et al. ZEF, 2016.
In sum: Three inter-linked agriculture transformations and their Drivers
T1: Agriculture becoming a multi-dimensional “sector“ (connecting farming with value chains, industries, and services; bioeconomy)T2: Farms change (education, farm size structures, market access, mechanization, irrigation, energy)T3: Technological and organizational change(crop and livestock technology, linked with information technology; training and capacity;institutional innovations)
Joachim von Braun 2016 13
Overview 1. Transformation of agriculture, food
and rural-urban change 2. SDGs - agriculture, food and
nutrition policy3. Innovations for sustainable
transformation4. Conclusions
Joachim von Braun 2016 14
Not only Goal 2, but all 17 Goals relate to Agriculture
and there are trade offs between goalsJoachim von Braun 2016 15
Nutrition transformations - a challenge
Problems Numbers of people Trends
Hunger (under-nutrition, calories) ca. 0,8 Mrd. declining
Hidden Hunger (deficiencies of micro-nutrients, vitamins, iron etc.)
ca. 2 Mrd. Slowly declining
Children‘s under-nutrition(the first 1000 days)
ca. 165 Mio. declining
Obesity and resulting chronicdiseases ca. 1 Mrd. increasing
Sources: The Lancet 6/2013. FAO 2013.Joachim von Braun 2016 16
G20 Agriculture Ministers Meeting Communiqué, Xi’an, 3 June 2016
Selective quotes:• determined to fulfill our commitments taken under the SDGs• that food security is affected by the increasingly complex and variable factors
and requires comprehensive and coordinated governance measures. • we commit to continue to tackle the issue of price volatility. …ensuring food
security and nutrition requires global efforts with a special focus on developing countries,
• We value the fundamental significance of agricultural research and development
• harmonize urban and rural development, • Information and Communications Technology (ICT) … application in agriculture • smallholder farmers face crucial challenges in addressing globalization,
increasingly complex food value chains, pressures on natural resources, and the adverse effect of climate change.
• sound agricultural policies, investment and trade are important engines for sustainable agricultural development
Joachim von Braun 2016 17
Prices: opportunity and risk for agriculture – level, trend and volatility
Data source: Bloomberg.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
70020
00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Pric
es in
USD
/kg
(for o
il: U
SD/B
arre
l)
Wheat Rice Corn Soybeans Oil (WTI)
Joachim von Braun 2016 18
Policy is partly driven by voice: Smaller farmers – more or less voice?
Sources: von Braun. 2014. Data: Lowder et al. 2014. FAO. World Bank.
Joachim von Braun 2016 19
In sum: Priority for SDGs
• Coherent policies cutting across goals• Strong emphasis on hunger and nutrition• Sound measurement of progress• Strengthening capacities for policy
implementation • Inclusion of farming communities and their
organizations
Joachim von Braun 2016 20
Overview 1. Transformation of agriculture, food
and rural-urban change 2. SDGs - agriculture, food and
nutrition policy3. Innovations for sustainable
transformation4. Conclusions
Joachim von Braun 2016 21
More with less:Innovation feeds the world
Sources: Keith Fuglie, USDA, IFPRI, 2012 Global Policy Report, 2013.
Sources of productivity growth in world agriculture
Innovation
Inputs
IrrigationArea expansion
Joachim von Braun 2016 22
Contribution toproductivity
More is needed: Public agricultural R&D spending as % of agricultural GDP
Source: ASTI & GFAR. 2012.
Joachim von Braun 2016 23
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0SSA APAC LAC
1981199020002008
Notes: SSA = Africa south of the Sahara; APAC = Asia–Pacific countries; LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean. Regional growth rates exclude high-income countries within that region (for example, Japan and South Korea in the APAC region).
Climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to
hunger and under-nutrition
Impacts of climate change on the productivity of food crops in 2050
World Bank Development Report 2010
Joachim von Braun 2016
2012 Global Hunger Index
Welthungerhilfe, IFPRI and Concern WorldwideK von Grebmer et al 2012
Source: Tim Wheeler, Joachim von Braun. SCIENCE, 2013. 24
Technologies drive transformations and vice versa
• Overcoming the hoe• Precision farming• Biological innovations• ICT 4 agriculture
Joachim von Braun 2016 25
Facilitating equal capacity for women on farms and in rural economy
• Gender wage gap = 26% Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fisheries
• Land rights inequality• Less access to technology and markets
Joachim von Braun 2016
Source: Africa Human Development Report 2016
26
Building farmer’s ‘capacity to aspire’ is to be part of strategy for agricultural development
• people with high aspirations are more likely to adopt agricultural innovations
• Policies targeting aspirations with group and info actions can enhance the effectiveness of tech. policies
Evidence from Ethiopia (Mekonnen & Gerber, ZEF 2016): see figure
Joachim von Braun 2016 27
Toward formal vocational training in agriculture
• Beyond extension• Below collegesToward certified vocational training- Entry must be possible with low barriers- Class room training on agronomy, agri-business,
finance (partly using ICT) - On-farm experience under guidance of lead
farmers (clubs)- Certification with exams • Ready for farm and diverse rural labor market
Joachim von Braun 2016 28
In sum: Innovation support
• Accelerated investment in science and technology and research
• Fostering farmers own innovations through innovation awards and leading farmers groups
• Innovation to deal with climate change, land and water problems
Joachim von Braun 2016 29
Overview 1. Transformation of agriculture, food
and rural-urban change 2. SDGs - agriculture, food and
nutrition policy3. Innovations for sustainable
transformation4. Conclusions
Joachim von Braun 2016 30
Science System transformation: The current system on food, nutrition, agriculture R&D needs re-design
8 clusters of supply 15 clusters of demand
Univer-sities
National Academies
Private Sector
Research
Academic Associations
Public Research
GFAR
national governments
NGOs
G7, G20, OECD
Joachim von Braun 2016 31
An enhanced global agr. R&D policysystem
Toward an International Panel for Food, Nutrition and Agriculture (IP-FNA)
mapped along IPCC design
Details see: - von Braun, J. and M. Kalkuhl. 2015. International Science and Policy Interaction for Improved Food and Nutrition Security: Toward an International Panel on Food and Nutrition (IPFN). (ZEF Working Papers 142) http://www.zef.de/uploads/tx_zefportal/Publications/WP142_final.pdf- von Braun, J., R. Birner 2016. Designing Global Governance for Agricultural Development and Food and Nutrition Security. Review of Development Economics (2016). http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/rode.12261/abstract
Joachim von Braun 2016 32
Toward an “International Panel on Food, Nutrition & Agriculture “
Science Domainevidence base
Policy Domaingov. & non gov.
inform decision makers oncosts, benefits, risks
inform science communityon agenda & priority setting
Coordination required Transparent and participatory process necessary
Joachim von Braun 2016 Source: von Braun, Kalkuhl. ZEF, 2015. 33
Conclusions: toward agricultural transformation serving people
1. Size and scope of agriculture are undervalued today2. Agriculture is being redefined in transformation due
to its new links with industry and services in an emerging bioeconomy
3. Agriculture must play critical role to address climate change and to cope with it
4. The redesign of S&T, innovation system is needed: toward an International Panel on Food, Nutrition, Agriculture (IP-FNA)
5. Managing agricultural transformation well at national and global levels is the development opportunity, and is needed to prevent poverty, marginality, forced migration, and conflicts
Joachim von Braun 2016 34