THE WORKING GROUP ON TROPICAL METEOROLOGY RESEARCH …€¦ · THE WORKING GROUP ON TROPICAL METEOROLOGY RESEARCH ... Increasing forecast skill on TC Track ... Hainan Province,

The 6th Session of the JSC for CAS OPAG on WWRP, Geneva Switzerland, 17-19 July, 2013

Yihong DUAN, WGTMR

[email protected]

THE WORKING GROUP ON TROPICAL METEOROLOGY RESEARCH (WGTMR)

ACTIVITIES AND FUTURE PLANS

Contents

1. Implementation of JSC-V Actions 2. Activities since JSC-V3. Plans in 2013-2014

Implementation of JSC-V Actions

1. Collaboration with other organizations and operation centers

2. Scientific and Research Challenges of TMR

Active collaboration

WMO-TLFDP (Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project):

WWRP, TCP, and PWSP are the WMO programs supporting this FDP.

Shanghai Typhoon Institute of CMA, East China Regional Meteorological Center of CMA, and RSMC Tokyo–Typhoon Center are the lead agencies of this Project.

The products providers including ECMWF, NCEP, NHC, JTWC, MSC, JMA, KMA, CMA, HKO,

SCMREX (South China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment):

Five NMHSs in the region are also participating in this RDP (Australia, India, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines and Republic of Korea).

Cooperation is made among National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration, Guangdong Meteorological Bureau, and Hong Kong Observatory.

Aside from WGTMR, three other WWRP working groups are represented (JWGFVR, WGMWFR, and WGNR).

Currently being discussed is a possible collaboration and coordinated operational program for aircraft observations between SCMREX and TCP’s Typhoon Committee.

5th International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-V) :

Will be organized by the Monsoon Panel/TMR, WCRP-WWRP MJO Task Force, and WCRP CLIVAR-GEWEX Asian Monsoon Year, Macao, China ,Hongkong, China

8th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone(IWTC-VIII) , 3rd International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfalling Process(IWTCLP-III)

Will be organized by the Tropical Cyclone Panel/TMR , TCP/WMO, TCS/WMO&ESCAPE, KMA

Based on the recommendations from the Conferences and Workshops held in recent years, WGTMR summarized its scientific and research challenges related to the understanding of monsoon and tropical cyclones.

Both of these natural systems are associated with complicated multi-scale interactions, and likewise related to different components of the earth system.

There still exist gaps in integrating and communicating forecast uncertainties.

Scientific and research challenges

Increasing forecast skill on TC Track CMA TC Track Subjective Forecast Errors

Northwest Pacific and South China Sea （1991-2012,Unit: km）

The TC intensity error is little progress in past 10 years

2011

VT Int.

(h) (m/s)

========

024 4.3

048 7.0

072 8.1

CMA TC Intensity Subjective Forecast ErrorsNorthwest Pacific and South China Sea

（1991-2011,Unit: m/s）

Scientific and research challenges ofTropical cyclones

1. Motionsudden changes in TC tracksEffects of air-sea interactionData sensitivityUse of ensemble approaches

2. GenesisEvaluation of the skill in genesis predictionsUse of observations to verify the validity of TC

genesis theories


3. IntensityForecasting of intensity changes having large

errors especially in sudden intensification casesFormation and dissipation of concentric eyewallsFuture research efforts must include both

simulations and observational analyses to identify the likely physical processes4. Size

very few studies carried out in documenting and understanding size changes because of the lack of data


5. RainfallUnderstanding of the physical processes that lead

to different rainfall distributions associated with different TC landfall characteristics

Developing better models and/or forecast schemes to make better predictions of rainfall6. Storm surge

Need more research on understanding the accuracy of storm surge predictions


7. Temporal variations on longer-than-synoptic time scales

Research on decadal or longer time scales should be encouraged.

More efforts should continue to be devoted to both statistical-dynamical prediction schemes and pure dynamical model predictions of TC activity especially with regard to the number of landfalling TCs in a particular region.

Scientific and research challenges ofMonsoon

1. Mesoscale Weather and Heavy RainfallMesoscale factors influencing monsoon precipitation:

convective organization, orographic effects, diurnal cycle, mesoscale convective vortices, microphysics, and surface-atmosphere interactions

Use of radar observations for improving forecasts of monsoon rainfall: kinematic and precipitation structure of MCSs, microphysical properties of MCSs, QPE, QPF, and intensive field observational programs


2. Intraseasonal Forecasting in the TropicsIntraseasonal variations of rainfallMJO and dynamical predictions of MJOBoreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO)Convectively coupled equatorial wavesDownscaling


3. Indian Monsoon OnsetThe onset has been linked to phenomena and

processes with a broad range of time scalesDifficulties in defining the specific onset dateDifferent views on the fundamental time scales and

processes of the monsoon system


4. Relationships between Climate Change and Extreme Weather

Long-term trends of different types of extreme events by analyzing historical weather records

Observational data archives with high spatial and temporal resolution

Improvement of the current generation of computer models in simulating various aspects of monsoon climate

Whether the statistics of these events can mainly be accounted for by a shift in the mean conditions, or a change in the level of variability (‘spread’) about the mean, or a combination of both factors

Contents

1. Implementation of JSC-V Actions 2. Activities since JSC-V3. Future plans

2. Activities-Research and Development Projects

South China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX)

Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (TLFDP)

South China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment(SCMREX)

• Proposed by CMA and approved by JSC-V as a WWRP RDP .

• Scientific plan: revised throughout summer and fall of 2012.

• Implementation Plan: discussed during the Second Monsoon Heavy Rainfall Workshop in December 2012 and finalized in April 2013.

• Website: http://scmrex.cma.gov.cn:8080, for data sharing and international participation contact.

South China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment(SCMREX)

• Pilot phase 15 April to 31 May 2013.

Test the equipment, communications, operation procedure and all aspects related to the observations.

C- and X-band polarimetric radars, micro rain radars, radindrop disdrometers, millimeter-wave cloud radars, and wind profilers, in addition to a variety of measurements from the operational observing systems.

A data flight collection over western Guangdong coastal area was successfully carried out.

Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project(TLFDP)

• Organized by TMR, TCP, and PWSP and implemented by Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA

To enhance the ability of forecasters to issue timely and accurate typhoon forecasts

To strengthen the ability of decision-makers to analyze and determine the accuracy of typhoon forecasts

To demonstrate the performance of the most advanced typhoon forecasting technique

To assess the WMO-TLFDP’s impacts on enhancing the typhoon forecast service as well as its social and economic benefits

To promote the implementation of the most up to date forecast technique for landfall typhoons in typhoon-affected Members of WMO

TLFDPImplementation tasksImplementation tasks

Collection of real-time TC forecast data

Verification of TC forecasts

Dissemination of TC forecast products

Benefit Assessment

TC Forecast integration techniques and reliability analyses

List of typhoon forecast products providersFull name Abbreviation Ways of contribution

1 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF GTS, FTP and via TIGGE

2 Hong Kong Observatory HKO GTS and FTP

3 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration ITMM FTP and Intranet of CMA

4 Japan Meteorological Agency JMA GTS, FTP and via TIGGE

5 Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the United States JTWC GTS

6 Korea Meteorological Administration KMA GTS and via TIGGE

7 Meteorological Service of Canada MSC Via TIGGE

8 National Centers for Environmental Prediction of the United States NCEP Via TIGGE

9 National Hurricane Center of the United States NHC FTP

10 National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration NMC/CMA GTS, FTP, Intranet of CMA

and via TIGGE

11 East China Regional Meteorological Centre of China Meteorological Administration ECRMC FTP

12 RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Center of the World Meteorological Organization RSMC Tokyo GTS

13 Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration STI FTP, Intranet of CMA and

via TIGGE

TLFDP WebsiteWebsite(http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn)(http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn)

FY-2E Satellite imagesFY-2E Satellite images

Track & intensity forecast and real time verificationTrack & intensity forecast and real time verification

Gridded model outputGridded model output High winds striking prob.High winds striking prob.

Striking probability(EPS and super-ensemble)Striking probability(EPS and super-ensemble)Sample

images on the web

TLFDP

• Set up a real-time verification and evaluation platform of TC forecasts.

The current operational status of TC forecast verification is analyzed on the basis of an e-mail survey covering all the Members of UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee.

Main conclusions areSignificant efforts have been focused on the verification of TC forecast guidance by operational forecast agencies.Only a few verification products are available for the probabilistic forecasts from EPS.Verification of TC precipitation and high wind forecasts are also lacking sufficient attention.

TLFDP• A series of surveys were carried out to assess the

benefit of the TLFDP. Based on the benefit assessment of TC forecast services in Shanghai from 2010 to 2011, the overall satisfaction factor was fairly high up to 82.3%.

2. Activities2.2 Workshops and meetings

Workshop and Training Course on Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecast

Second Monsoon Heavy Rainfall Experiment Workshop

International High-Level Forum on Rapid Change Phenomena in Tropical Cyclones

Fourth International Workshop on Extratropical Transition


Held in Shanghai, China from 12-14 June 2012.

Lecturers from Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, WWRP/WMO, Shanghai Meteorological Service of CMA, National Center for Atmospheric Research of USA, National Meteorological Center of CMA, Shanghai Typhoon Institute of CMA, Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo, Hong Kong Observatory, and National Typhoon Center of KMA.

More than 40 forecasters from 21 forecasting and warning centers in China (including Macao and Hong Kong, China) and Republic of Korea.


Second Monsoon Heavy Rainfall Experiment Workshop

Held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia from 10-12 December 2012.

scientific presentations about heavy rainfall research and forecast in the monsoon region. Participants included monsoon researchers from U.S., China, India, Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, and monsoon forecasters from India, China, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and Australia.

Discussion of SCMREX science plan, international participation, and the framework of an implementation plan.

International High-Level Forum on Rapid Change Phenomena in Tropical Cyclones

Held in Haikou, Hainan Province, China from 5-9 November 2012 co-sponsored by CAE, CMA and WMO .

More than 80 researchers and forecasters from 6 NMHSs and 6 Universities (China, Australia, India, Philippines, Thailand and USA).

Topics including sudden changes in tracks, rapid changes in structure and intensity, rapid changes in rainfall, advances in forecasting and forecaster requirements.

Fourth International Workshop on Extratropical Transition

Held in Montreal, Canada from 21-25 May 2012, and sponsored by the WMO/WWRP through Tropical Meteorology Research and THORPEX.

To review recent progress in predicting and understanding extra-tropical transition and to set future priorities for research and development in response to operational needs.

Contents

1. Implementation of JSC-V Actions 2. Activities since JSC-V3. Future plans

Future plans ------Projects

The TLFDP was extended to 2015 for the following reasons:

a)to apply in the operational mode the forecast evaluation methods designed for the project, b)to conduct further tests on the stability of the operational performance of each typhoon forecast product and technique, c)to enhance integration of the forecast products with services for users, d)and to include studies on the tropical cyclone pre-formation period.

TLFDPThe TLFDP was extended to 2015 for the following reasons:

a)to apply in the operational mode the forecast evaluation methods designed for the project, b)to conduct further tests on the stability of the operational performance of each typhoon forecast product and technique, c)to enhance integration of the forecast products with services for users, d)and to include studies on the tropical cyclone pre-formation period.

Future plans ------Projects• To present the SCMREX RDP at the 5th

WMO International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-V) during 28 October –1 November, 2013 in Macao, China.

• To continue data processing/analyzing and research works.

• The first RDP workshop will take place in late February 2014.

Future plans ------Projects

A New RDP Project will be proposed

High-Resolution Numerical Prediction of Landfalling Typhoon Rainfall”

Future plans : Workshops and meetings

The Joint WG meeting (WGTMR and JWGFVR) will be held in Macao, China from 26-27 October 2013.The IWM-V will be held in Macao, China from 28 October-1 November 2013. The IWM-V Training Workshop on Operational Monsoon Research & Forecast Issues will be held in Hong Kong, China on 1 November 2013.The Eighth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VIII) will be held in Jeju, Republic of Korea from 2-7 December 2014.The Third International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-III) will be also held in Jeju, Republic of Korea from 8-10 December 2014.

5th International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-V)28 October – 1 November 2013

Macao China

Sponsor: WWRP

Cosponsors*:WMO Training DepartmentMacao Meteorological and Geophysical ServicesHong Kong ObservatoryChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesWCRP/CLIVAR Monsoon PanelWCRP-WWRP MJO Task ForceAsian Monsoon Years Science Steering CommitteeHong Kong Meteorology Society

*The cosponsors share > 70% of costs (excluding hosting expenses)

5th International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-V)28 October – 1 November 2013

Macao China

40 Invited Reviews- Extended abstract will be published as a as WMO/WWRP Technical Document,- Post workshop manuscripts will go through a peer-review process, accepted manuscripts will be published in the book: “The Global Monsoon Systems: Research and Forecast: III.”

70 Contribute Papers under review by IOC-Around 15 will be accepted for oral presentation-Most of the rest will be presented in poster sessions.

8 Invited Lectures for the Training Workshop- Main theme: “Promises and Challenges in Operational Weather Forecast from Recent Research”- Selected lecture materials will be published paper, CD or online as WMO/WWRP Technical Documents.

IWM‐V Training Workshop (Tentative Topics)

Promises and Challenges of:

Applications of Radio Occultation Observations in Tropical Forecasts (HKO)‐ Richard Anthes, UCAR, U.S.A.

Evaluation and Verification of Higher Resolution NWP Forecasts (HKO)‐ Elizabeth Ebert, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, AUSTRALIA

Mesoscale Meteorology and Rainfall Systems ‐ Robert Fovell, UCLA, U.S.A

Modern Application of Radar Observations in Operational Forecasting (HKO)‐ Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong China

Integrated Data Viewer (IDV) for Analyzing and Visualizing Monsoon Weather Systems (HKO) ‐ Brian Mapes, University of Miami, U.S.A.

Radar Data Analysis for Heavy Rainfall Studies and QPE, QPF‐ Hiroshi Uyeda, Nagoya University, JAPAN

Operational Monsoon Weather Forecast in South Asia ‐ Peter Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, U.S.A.

Intraseasonal Forecasts in the Tropics‐Matt Wheeler, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, AUSTRALIA

8th International Workshop on Tropical CyclonesJeju, Republic of Korea, 2 to 10 December 2014

In conjunction with 3rd International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes

The IWTC is one of WMO’s major quadrennial workshop series organized by its WWRP and Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP). The Workshop is a special and unique gathering of tropical cyclone researchers and warning specialists from all regions affected by tropical cyclones, including those from Members belonging to the TCP regional bodies.

Main objectives:1) to examine current knowledge, forecasting and research trends on tropical

cyclones from an integrated global perspective and 2) to report on these aspects and to offer recommendations for future forecasting

studies and research with special regard to the varying needs of different regions.

Jenni Evans Andrew Burton Robert RogersChair IWTCLP-IIICo-chairs IWTC-VIII

Global PerspectivesOn

Tropical Cyclones

Thank you for your attention

TMR: Yihong DUAN (China)

TC Panel: Johnny CHAN (HK, China)

Monsoon Panel: C. P. CHANG (USA)

• Richard JOHNSON (USA)• Tom KNUTSON (USA)• Gabriel LAU (USA)• Ajit TYAGI (India) • YAP Kok Seng (Malaysia)• Suzana CAMARGO (USA)• John McBRIDE (Australia)• Robert ROGERS (USA)

TC Panel :To improve understanding of various TC

characteristicsTo apply the latest advances in science to

improvements in operational forecastingTo Train forecasters in understanding the latest

research findings

Monsoon PanelPromotion of research on monsoon meteorology

topics that are of high priority to operational NMHSsExchanges and interactions between researchers and

operational forecasters, particularly those in the developing countries

International cooperation on monsoon field programs and other research projects

Interactions between monsoon weather and monsoon climate researchers and forecasters

Objectives of TMR

IWM‐V International Organizing Committee

Chih‐Pei Chang, Naval Postgraduate School, U.S.A. (Chair)Yihui Ding, China Meteorological Administration, CHINAB.N. Goswami, India Institute of Tropical Meteorology, INDIAHarry Hendon, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, AUSTRALIARichard Johnson, Colorado State University, U.S.A.In‐Sik Kang, Seoul National University, KOREAJean‐Philippe Lafore, Météo France, FRANCENgar‐Cheung G. Lau, GFDL NOAA and Princeton University, U.S.A. Dong‐In Lee, Pukyong National University, KOREAEric Maloney, Colorado State University, U.S.A.Brian Mapes, University of Miami, U.S.A.Jun Masumoto, Tokyo Metropolitan University, JAPANZhiyong Meng, Peking University, CHINAMaria Assuncao F. Silva Dias, University São Paulo, BRAZILKen Sperber, Laurence Livermore National Laboratory, U.S.A.Ajit Tyagi,Ministry of Earth Sciences and PR to WMO, INDIAHiroshi Uyeda, Nagoya University, JAPANBin Wang, University of Hawaii, U.S.A.Peter Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, U.S.A.Matt Wheeler, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, AUSTRALIAGuoxiong Wu, Chinese Academy of Sciences, CHINA