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APA Resources

• The Wildland-Urban Interface (PAS QuickNotes 69) – www.planning.org/media/document/9131011/

• Fire-Resilient Community Design: A New Planning Subfield? (Planning, Nov. 2016) – www.planning.org/planning/2016/nov/research/

• In the Path of the Inferno (Planning, July 2013) – www.planning.org/planning/2013/jul/inferno.htm

• Limiting Wildfire Risk Through Land-Use Controls (Zoning Practice, May 2012) – www.planning.org/media/document/9006915/

The Wildland-Urban Interface and Rebuilding after Wildfire

December 12, 2017

Speaker: Miranda Mockrin Research Scientist US Forest Service, Northern Research Station

The Wildland-Urban Interface and Rebuilding after Wildfire

Miranda H. Mockrin1, Volker Radeloff2, H. Anu Kramer2, David P. Helmers, Hillary K. Fishler3, Patricia Alexandre2 & Susan I. Stewart2

1USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 2University of Wisconsin,

3Oregon State University

December 12, 2017 American Planning Association

Outline • Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI)

• Growth over time • Data set online

• Rebuilding after wildfire • Case study work • What happens after fire?

• Conclusion: many opportunities for collaboration with planners

6

Outline • Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI)

• Growth over time • Data set online

• Rebuilding after wildfire • Case study work • What happens after fire?

• Conclusion: many opportunities for collaboration with planners

7

Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI)

Where houses meet or intermingle with undeveloped wildland.

8

Why does the WUI matter?

9

Wildfire management

10

Wildfire management

11

Forest Service mission: To sustain the health, diversity, and productivity of the Nation’s forests and grasslands to meet the needs of present and future generations.

• Location, extent, and change over time: – Housing from U.S. Census blocks – Wildland Vegetation, National Land Cover

Database – Thresholds from Federal Register

• Coterminous U.S.

Mapping the WUI

Radeloff et al. (2005). "The wildland-urban interface in the United States." Ecological Applications 15(3): 799-805.

12

13

• Census blocks change every decade, preventing fine-scale change analyses

WUI Mapping

14

• Map WUI change from 1990 to 2010 across the conterminous U.S.

• Identify the causes of WUI change

• Change in housing density, • Or wildland vegetation

New data set

15

Methods Wildland

Vegetation 1992 NLCD

(retrofit)

Wildland Vegetation 2001 NLCD

Wildland Vegetation 2011 NLCD

1990 Housing

Units

2000 Housing

Units

2010 Census blocks

2010 Housing

Units

1990-2000-2010 WUI Change

16

Methods

10

10

1-to-1

6

10

4

1-to-Many

7 3

10

Many-to-1

7 3

3 2

5

Many-to-Many

1990/2000

2010

17

Interface WUI - “where houses meet”

Intermix WUI - “where houses mingle”

Types of WUI

>75% wildland vegetation >500 hectares

>1 house per 40 acres >50% wildland vegetation

>1 house per 40 acres <50% wildland vegetation

Within 1.5 miles

18

1990

19

2000

20

2010

21

U.S. WUI grew rapidly from 1990 to 2010: WUI Houses: 30.8 to 43.4 million

41% growth WUI Area: 581,000 to 770,000 km2

33% growth

22

23

24

25

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Moved out of WUI Moved into WUI Stayed WUI

Are

a km

2 (th

ousa

nds)

Area change, 1990-2010

No longer WUI Became WUI Stayed WUI

26

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

WUI Area 1990-2010 WUI Houses 1990-2010

Perc

enta

ge o

f all W

UI g

row

th

Causes of WUI growth

Due to Housing growth Change in vegetation Due to both

27

WUI Data • https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/data/wui/

28

Outline • Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI)

• Growth over time • Data set online

• Rebuilding after wildfire • Case study work • What happens after fire?

• Conclusion: many opportunities for collaboration with planners

29

Post-fire response • Could be an obvious time to see

adaptation or change • Does post-fire change provide

broader insight for WUI planning? • Rebuilding • Local policy

30

Building after fire • Rebuilding and new development • Do people reinvest in hazard-prone

environment? – “Everyone rebuilds”

31

Quantify rebuilding and new development

• All fires from 2000-2013 – 3,087 fires digitized (466 lost buildings)

• Buildings before and after fire – Burned, rebuilt, and new for ~2.5 years

• Alexandre, P.M.; Mockrin, M.H.; Stewart, S.I.; Hammer, R.B.; Radeloff, V.C. 2015. Rebuilding and new housing development after wildfire. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 24: 138-149.

• Kramer, H. A. et al. Where are buildings destroyed by wildfire in the US relative to the wildland urban interface and national fire outreach programs. in prep 32

33

133,857

34,918

17,079

11,930

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

All fires (n=3,087) Most destructive fires(n=20)

Buildings destroyed and surviving, 2000-2013

DestroyedSurvived

*466 lost buildings

34

4,063 3,417

13,016

8,513

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

All fires Top 20

Rebuilding post-fire, 2000-2013

Not rebuilt

Rebuilt

n=466

35

4,063 3,417

6,554

633

13,016

8,513

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

All fires Top 20

Rebuilding and new buildings post-fire, 2000-2013

Not rebuilt

New

Rebuilt

n=466

Quantify rebuilding and new development

• Not everyone rebuilds • Don’t avoid fire perimeters either—new

development continues • Caveats—buildings only, can’t see

management, ownership, etc. 36

Post-fire policy response

Fire Adapted Communities Coalition, 2014, Guide to Fire Adapted Communities. http://www.fireadapted.org/~/media/Fire%20Adapted/Files/FAC%20Reference%20Guide%202014%20FINAL%20reduced%202.pdf (accessed April 19, 2017). 37

Post-fire policy response 1. Fire education &

outreach 2. Firewise programs 3. Vegetation manage.

public lands 4. Suppression and

emergency response 5. Planning (CWPP,

hazards) 6. Regulations (WUI regs

for homes, burning) 38

Methods • Case studies (n=8) • Fires from 2009-2011

burned 20+ homes • Interviews with

officials and local leaders & document analysis

• 6-10 interviews per site

39

1. Caughlin Ranch Fire – Reno, Washoe County, NV (2011) 2. Highway 31 Fire - North Myrtle Beach, SC (2009) + Windsor

Green – Horry County, SC (2013) 3. Loco-Healdton Fire - Stephens/Carter Counties, OK (2009) 4. Monastery Fire - Klickitat County, WA (2011) 5. Monument Fire - Cochise County, AZ (2011) 6. Possum Kingdom Fire - Palo Pinto County, TX (2011) 7. Station Fire - Los Angeles County, CA (2009) 8. Wallow Fire - Apache County, AZ (2011)

Study sites

40

Results

Fire education & outreach

Firewise programs

Vegetation manage. public lands

Suppression and emergency response

Planning (e.g., CWPP)

Regulations (homes, burning)

Formal & difficult

41

Changes reported after wildfire

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

Perc

ent o

f site

s (n=

8)

42

Changes reported after wildfire

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

Perc

ent o

f site

s (n=

8)

43

Changes reported after wildfire

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

Perc

ent o

f site

s (n=

8)

44

Changes reported after wildfire

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

Perc

ent o

f site

s (n=

8)

45

Before Location: CWPP Burn

bans Build. code

WUI regs

Caughlin Ranch NV Yes* Yes Yes Yes, county

Hwy 31 + WG SC Yes Yes

Loco-Healdton OK Yes

Monastery WA Yes* Yes Yes

Monument AZ Yes

Yes (county,

1 fire dept)

Possum Kingdom TX Yes

Station CA Yes Yes Yes

Wallow AZ Yes Yes Yes 46

Before AFTER Location: CWPP Burn

bans Build. code

WUI regs CWPP Burn

bans Build. code

WUI regs Other

Caughlin Ranch NV Yes* Yes Yes Yes, county

+IWUI, county

only

Hazard Mit Plan

Hwy 31 + WG SC Yes Yes City

banned, county stronger

Hazard/ Comp plan

Loco-Healdton OK Yes Public Safety

Tax

Monastery WA Yes* Yes Yes

Monument AZ Yes

Yes (county,

1 fire dept)

New + 1 fire dept Hazard

Mit Plan

Possum Kingdom TX Yes Emerg. Oper. Plan

Station CA Yes Yes Yes FS regs

Wallow AZ Yes Yes Yes Revising Hazard Mit Plan 47

Do Wildfires Lead to Local Adaptation?

• Yes! but: • Many changes focus on emergency

response/suppression or education • Narrow policy window

– WUI regs after wildfire? 1/8 places – Government effort on repairing

community relationships

48

Challenges to adaptation • Existing housing stock and access is not

easily changed • Government officials and comm.

members for whom it was a ‘non-event’: • Accepted risk—long experience with fire,

but relatively little change post-incident: – Extensive formal governance & capacity (LA

County) – Limited local government & capacity(OK)

• Not accepted risk - isolated incident, unlikely to return (TX) 49

Outline

50

• Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) • Growth over time • Data set online

• Rebuilding after wildfire • Case study work • What happens after fire?

• Conclusion: many opportunities for collaboration with planners

Conclusions

51

Conclusions • The WUI is widespread

– 43 million homes in 2010 – 190 million acres in WUI

• The WUI is growing – 13 million more WUI homes 1990-2010 (41%) – 42 million acres more in WUI (33%)

• Growth in face of hazards – Not everyone rebuilds; and there is time for

education and outreach

52

Rebuilding and policy response

• No large scale land use/regulation changes

• Planning and regulation do happen with state and federal mandates

• Change after fire focuses on interventions most common before fire – Voluntary, education, and planning – Staff & resources were key

53

• The challenges that the WUI presents will persist – Despite more vibrant city centers, the

WUI is growing – People (continue to) like to live near

wildland vegetation • Requires action at many levels

Conclusions

• Homeowners – Firewise activities: mitigate vegetation,

use fire-resistant materials • Communities

– Plan how and where to build – Community Wildfire Protection Plans

• State and Federal agencies – Support local planning efforts – Provide R&D and knowledge transfer – https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/data/wui/

Conclusion

• Joint Fire Science Program(14-2016) • USDA Forest Service (NRS and RMRS) • Many people we interviewed • Email: mhmockrin@fs.fed.us

Thank you & questions

56

57

National Cohesive Strategy

58

“Community leaders and residents accept responsibility for living in an area with wildfire hazards. They have the knowledge and skills and have adopted tools and behaviors to prepare in advance for their community’s resilience in a wildfire prone environment.”

Fire-adapted communities

Fire Adapted Communities Coalition, 2014, Guide to Fire Adapted Communities. http://www.fireadapted.org/~/media/Fire%20Adapted/Files/FAC%20Reference%20Guide%202014%20FINAL%20reduced%202.pdf (accessed April 19, 2017). 59

Post-fire: time to adapt? • “Policy window” (Birkland 2006, Kingdon 2010)

• “Accepted wisdom has held that natural disasters serve as focusing events that generate policy windows in their wake”(Solecki & Michaels 1994)

• WUI regulations-homes & veg-often adopted after wildfires (Duerksen et al. 2011).

60

• Political will to change policies but political pressure to recover

• Insurance and other institutions facilitate greater investment (e.g., bigger homes)(Pais and Elliott 2008)

• Hazard experience may not change mitigation (“fuels are gone”, denial, fatalism)(Collins and Bolin 2009; McGee et al. 2009)

Post-fire: time to “stay the course”?

61

CO Front Range

62

Site Landscape

Type Economy

base Political

Affiliation Socioeco.

Status Community

Type Ignition Source Other Hazards

Caughlin R NV High desert shrubland

Lottery, Misc. Dem. $$$ Suburban,

Exurban

Electrical fire, high

winds

Drought, Earthquake

Hwy 31 (&Windsor Green) SC

Peat, subtropical

coastal forest

Tourism, Resorts Rep. $$$ Suburban

Residential debris

burning, unknown

Hurricane, Flooding

Loco-Healdton OK Grassland Agriculture Rep. $ Rural

High winds, arcing power lines

Tornadoes, Flooding, Fracking Induced

Earthquake, Drought

Monastery WA Conifer Forest to

Grassland

Tourism, Forestry Rep. $ Exurban

Tractor-trailer

defect

Earthquake, Landslides

Monument AZ Desert Military Rep. $$ Exurban, Rural

Human ignition-disputed

Drought, Flooding

Possum Kingdom TX

Grassland, Shrubland Tourism Rep. $$$$ Suburban Disputed Drought

Station CA High Desert,

Conifer Forest

Misc., Entertain-

ment Industry

Dem. $$$$ Exurban Arson

Earthquake, Drought, Flood, Mud & Debris

Flows

Wallow AZ High desert, alpine forest Tourism Rep. $ Exurban Unattend.

campfire Drought, Flooding 63

Government and local response: • Recovery policy • Rebuilding • Homes and

mitigation

Colorado Front Range, 2010-2012 wildfires

64

• Mockrin M.H., Stewart S.I., Radeloff V.C., Hammer R.B. 2016. Recovery and adaptation after wildfire on the Colorado Front Range (2010–12). International Journal of Wildland Fire 25: 1144-1155.

• Mockrin M.H., S.I. Stewart, P. Alexandre, V. C. Radeloff, R. B. Hammer. 2015. Adapting after wildfire: recovery from home loss. Society and Natural Resources 28: 839-856.

• Qualitative data— interviews with officials and local leaders & document analysis

Colorado Front Range, 2010-2012 wildfires

65

• Mockrin M.H., Stewart S.I., Radeloff V.C., Hammer R.B. 2016. Recovery and adaptation after wildfire on the Colorado Front Range (2010–12). International Journal of Wildland Fire 25: 1144-1155.

• Mockrin M.H., S.I. Stewart, P. Alexandre, V. C. Radeloff, R. B. Hammer. 2015. Adapting after wildfire: recovery from home loss. Society and Natural Resources 28: 839-856.

High Park Fire (2012) Larimer County 259 homes 20 miles to Fort Collins

Fourmile Canyon Fire (2010) Boulder County 165 homes 6 miles to Boulder

Waldo Canyon (2012) City of Colorado Springs 347 homes

66

High Park (Larimer)

Fourmile (Boulder)

Waldo Canyon (Colo.

Springs)

Number homes lost 259 165 347

Recovery policy Y Y Y

Constraints on home size N Y N

WUI regulations before Y Y Y

WUI regulations strengthened N N Y

Rebuild rates as of 2015 33% 50% 75%

67

• All new homes, in each CO location: – Fire-resistant materials – Vegetation thinned or landscaped

• New regulations in Colorado Springs – Replaced 1993 older standards

• Time for education and outreach, especially in foothills

Fire-adapted?

68

• Government investment in recovery • No changes for existing homes

– Considered in Colorado Springs • Size of rebuilt home constrained only in

Boulder • Strong real estate market in Colorado Springs • And challenges of existing housing stock

Staying the course?

69

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