The Weld County Population & Development Report

Demographic Statistics and Trends for Weld County, Colorado Maintained in compliance with Section 22-1-20.C of the Weld County Code

Updated as of December 31, 2018

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Table of Contents

Weld County Overview .................................................. 3 Acreage & Climate ........................................................ 4 County Population Overview ......................................... 4 Economic Overview ...................................................... 7 Transportation Overview ............................................... 9 Real Estate & Housing ................................................ 11 Development Trends ................................................... 13 Oil and Gas ................................................................. 16 Weld County Small Business Incentive Plan (SBIP) ... 17

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Weld County Overview Weld County is located on the Front Range in Northern Colorado between the Rocky Mountains and the Great Plains, approximately 40 miles east of the Continental Divide. The County ranges in elevation from approximately 4,400 feet on Pawnee Creek at the eastern edge of the County to approximately 6,200 feet above sea level at the Pawnee Buttes on the Pawnee National Grassland. The County has a number of valuable streams, creeks, and rivers including the Big Thompson, the Cache la Poudre, and the St. Vrain, all of which flow into the South Platte. These rivers facilitate a water system that delivers water to farmland throughout the County through some of the largest and most complex reservoir and irrigation systems in the world.

The County consists of approximately 3,992 square miles and is the third largest in the State, making it also twice the size of the State of Delaware. Weld County is bounded on the west by Larimer and Boulder Counties, on the east by Morgan and Logan Counties, on the south by Adams and Broomfield Counties, and on the north by Laramie County, Wyoming, and Kimball County, Nebraska.

The US Census Bureau estimates Weld County’s population at 314,305 as of July 1, 2018. In comparison, the population in the State of Colorado was 5,695,564.

The County seat and largest city in Weld County is the City of Greeley, located within an hour’s drive of the majestic Rocky Mountains and six major municipalities including Denver, and home to the University of Northern Colorado. The population for the City of Greeley in 2017 was 104,947 according to the Colorado Department of Local Affairs Demography Office. In comparison, the population in the State of Colorado was 5,609,445.

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Acreage & Climate Municipal Boundaries in Weld County

Acreage Town 2016 2017 2018 Unincorporated Weld County

2,428,437 2,425,071 2,422,516

Ault 706 1,081 1,081 Berthoud* 3,790 3,790 3,790 Brighton* 1,559 1,559 1,559 Dacono 5,211 5,355 5,355 Eaton 1,800 1,862 2,018 Erie* 9,076 9,076 9,076 Evans 6,740 6,740 6,740 Firestone 9,083 9,083 9,083 Fort Lupton 6,757 6,980 7,138 Frederick 9,132 9,144 9,540 Garden City 73 73 73 Gilcrest 518 518 518 Greeley 30,655 31,115 31,115 Grover 382 382 382 Hudson 3,726 3,733 3,822 Johnstown 5,350 5,350 5,350 Keenesburg 1,680 2,128 2,210 Kersey 852 1,104 1,313 LaSalle 616 616 616 Lochbuie 2,234 2,234 2,234 Longmont* 3,589 3,589 3,589 Mead 7,917 7,931 8,199 Milliken 8,053 8,208 8,208 New Raymer 502 502 502 Northglenn* 624 624 624 Nunn 2,377 2,377 2,380 Pierce 537 537 537 Platteville 1,861 1,988 1,988 Severance 4,286 4,967 5,836 Thornton* 8 8 8 Timnath* 13 348 348 Windsor* 12,567 12,636 12,963 * Multi-County Places (Acres within Weld County only) Numbers include right-of-way (Source: Weld County GIS: 2019)

Average Temperature

Average Annual Precipitation

First & Last Average Frost

Average Growing Season

July: 76.5°F 14.94” May 6 143 days January: 31.2°F October 8 (Source: NOAA/NWS for Greeley, CO)

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County Population Overview Approximately 314,305 people live in Weld County, which represents 5.5% of the total state population. The Greeley Metropolitan Area, which includes the entire County, was the seventh fastest growing metropolitan area in the country from 2017 to 2018 by growth rate (3%). The population density increased from four people per square mile in 1900 to 63 people per square mile in 2010. It is projected to increase to over 122 people per square mile by 2030. Approximately half of the county’s population is located in an 800-square-mile area in the southwestern part of the County. The 2010 population density for this area is was approximately 68 people per square mile. A review of historical U.S. Census data reveals a steady increase in the total population every decade from 1870 to 2010, except between 1930 and 1940, when it declined 2%. The average annual percentage increase between 1960 and 2010 was 2.9%. Among the 64 counties in Colorado, Weld County ranks ninth in total population. Between 2010 and 2018, the County grew by over 24%, the most of any county in the state. From 2017 to 2018, Weld County grew by over 9,000 people, which is the third highest amount in the state, and sixth highest for growth rate (3%). The population growth in the County is projected to slow but remain much higher than that of the state as a whole. In 2050, Weld County’s projected population is nearly 710,000, almost 9% of the projected state population of 8,106,000. Weld County is projected to be the fifth most populous county in the state at that point.

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Weld County Population

Population Projected

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Weld County Population, Births, Deaths, and Migration

Year Population Births minus

deaths Net

Migration Total

Change %

Change 1970 90,033 1980 123,564 10,924 22,607 33,531 37.2% 1990 131,981 14,094 -5,677 8,417 6.8% 2000 183,074 14,832 36,263 51,093 38.7% 2010 254,198 25,299 45,857 71,124 38.8% 2015 285,033 11,605 18,639 30,835 12.1% 2016 294,965 2,505 7,315 9,932 3.5% 2017 305,274 2,477 7,664 10,309 3.5% 2018 314,305 2,587 6,406 9,031 3.0%

(Source: U.S. Census Bureau)

Weld County Projected Population

Year Population %

Change Average

Annual % 2020 333,149 2025 391,307 17% 3.4% 2030 453,421 16% 3.2% 2035 516,508 14% 2.8% 2040 580,591 12% 2.4% 2045 644,943 11% 2.2%

(Source: State Demography Office)

Weld County Veterans 2014 17,050 2015 21,105 2016 16,902 2017 17,174

(Source: Weld County Veterans Services)

Population Characteristics: 2018 Weld County % of total Colorado % of total Male 157,178 50.0% 2,847,994 50.1% Female 157,177 50.0% 2,841,230 49.9% Under 5 26,866 8.5% 400,895 7.0% 5 to 18 60,689 19.3% 941,498 16.5% 18 to 65 191,624 61.0% 3,602,251 63.3% 65+ 35,180 11.2% 744,581 13.1% Median Age 33.9 37.4

(Source: State Demography Office)

Weld County Municipal Populations 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017

Ault 1,056 1,107 1,432 1,525 1,739 Berthoud* - - 16 63 66 Brighton* - 17 154 347 417 Dacono 2,321 2,228 3,015 4,181 5,449 Eaton 1,932 1,959 2,690 4,384 5,197 Erie 1,231 1,244 2,009 9,882 13,410 Evans 5,063 5,877 9,514 18,651 20,975 Firestone 1,204 1,358 1,908 10,249 13,660 Fort Lupton 4,251 5,159 6,787 7,454 8,160 Frederick 855 988 2,467 8,735 12,690 Garden City 123 199 357 235 246 Gilcrest 1,025 1,084 1,162 1,038 1,089 Greeley 53,006 60,454 76,930 93,262 104,947 Grover 158 135 153 138 147 Hudson 698 918 1,565 2,370 1,600 Johnstown 1,535 1,579 3,827 9,445 14,992 Keenesburg 541 570 855 1,131 1,204 Kersey 913 908 1,389 1,459 1,597 LaSalle 1,929 1,803 1,849 1,967 2,324 Lochbuie 895 1,168 2,049 4,806 6,242 Longmont* - - 24 33 124 Mead 356 456 2,017 3,440 4,526 Milliken 1,506 1,605 2,888 5,634 6,913 Northglenn* - - 12 12 13 Nunn 295 324 471 418 452 Pierce 878 823 884 837 1,134 Platteville 1,662 1,515 2,370 2,499 2,720 Raymer 80 98 91 96 104 Severance 102 106 597 3,204 4,239 Thornton* - - - - - Windsor* 4,277 5,062 9,612 14,171 19,277 Unincorporated 35,542 33,001 41,832 42,564 48,782 Weld County 123,438 131,821 180,936 254,230 304,435

* Multi-County Places (figures above are within Weld County only) (Source: State Demography Office and U.S. Census Bureau)

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Economic Overview Weld County is the most agriculturally productive county in the state and the value of its commodities sold has grown, while the state’s as a whole decreased somewhat in the USDA’s 2017 agricultural census. Weld County’s total commodity sales were over $2 billion, more than twice the next highest county (Yuma) and over one-quarter the state’s overall value.

Agricultural Production 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 % Change 2012 to 2017 Weld farms/ranches 3,142 3,121 3,921 3,525 4,062 15.2% Colo. farms/ranches 30,197 31,369 37,054 36,180 38,893 7.5% Weld % of state 10.4% 9.9% 10.6% 9.7% 10.4% Weld acres of cropland 883,623 878,101 987,892 850,179 922,979 8.6% Colo. acres of cropland 10,787,080 11,530,700 11,483,936 10,649,747 11,056,259 3.8% Weld % of state 8.2% 7.6% 8.6% 8.0% 8.3% Weld irrigated acres 397,752 326,494 327,836 299,892 323,436 7.9% Colo. irrigated acres 3,374,233 2,590,654 2,867,957 2,516,785 2,761,173 9.7% Weld % of state 11.8% 12.6% 11.4% 11.9% 11.7% Weld commodities total $1,289,479,000 $1,127,854,000 $1,539,072,000 $1,860,718,000 $2,047,177,000 10.0% Colo. commodities total $4,553,732,000 $4,525,196,000 $6,061,134,000 $7,780,874,000 $7,491,702,000 -3.7% Weld % of state 28.3% 24.9% 25.4% 23.9% 27.3%

(Source: USDA Agricultural Census)

Economic Development Weld County has four internal driving sources that have been identified for future economic growth:

I. Energy Resources

A. Mining B. Wind- and solar-powered energy C. Greenhouse emission innovations D. Biogas E. Water recycling (oil and gas)

II. Open Entrepreneurship Marketplace

A. Zero County sale tax B. Hispanic businesses/Latino dollar C. Telecommunications/fiber optics D. Professional and business services E. The self-employed F. Unmet market opportunities G. Incubators (firms, universities, and linking networks) H. Home-based businesses

III. Growth A. High growth rate B. Half a million people by 2035 C. Healthy, growing, young labor force D. Attractiveness for retirees

IV. Location

A. 1 of 12 counties along the “Front Range Megapolitan,” the confluence of two or more major metro areas.

B. Proximity to Denver International Airport, Rocky Mountains, and Denver metro area

C. Two interstates (I-25 and I-76), two US highways (US 85, US 34), state highways, and County Road 49 (considered a county highway) to facilitate growth and transportation

D. Northern Front Range cities, the University of Northern Colorado and Aims Community College

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Per Capita Personal Income Year Weld County Colorado 2010 $33,031 $40,549 2011 $35,046 $43,502 2012 $37,102 $45,637 2013 $38,820 $47,308 2014 $42,374 $50,746 2015 $43,867 $52,228 2016 $43,757 $52,372 2017 $44,080 $54,646

(Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce)

Unemployment Rates Year Weld County Colorado 2010 9.2% 8.7% 2011 8.6% 8.4% 2012 7.8% 7.9% 2013 6.6% 6.9% 2014 4.5% 5.0% 2015 3.8% 3.9% 2016 3.4% 3.3% 2017 2.7% 2.8% 2018 2.9% 3.1%

(Source: Colorado Information Marketplace)

Weld County Employment by Sector

Sector 2010 2017 Change Total Jobs 105,071 136,752 30% Agriculture 6,012 6,412 7% Mining 3,334 7,066 112% Utilities 266 386 45% Construction 9,196 13,846 51% Manufacturing 10,616 13,944 31% Wholesale trade 3,550 4,657 31% Retail Trade 9,419 12,482 33% Transportation and warehousing 3,140 5,264 68% Information 1,081 978 -10% Finance activities 3,953 3,741 -5% Real estate 2,999 3,961 32% Professional, scientific/technical services 4,170 5,559 33% Management of companies, enterprises 1,113 1,628 46% Administrative support and waste mgt 5,292 7,642 44% Education 908 1,495 65% Health Services 9,293 10,986 18% Arts, entertainment and recreation 1,527 2,304 51% Accommodation and food services 6,018 8,369 39% Other services, except public admin. 6,646 8,099 22% Government 16,538 17,933 8%

(Source: State Demography Office)

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Transportation Overview Transportation in the County is provided by Interstate I-25 and US 85 for north and south transit up and down the Front Range corridor. US 34 and State Highways 14, 52, and 392 facilitate east and west transit, and I-76 provides for broader east and west travel. The highway and road system in the County is managed by the Colorado Department of Transportation, the County, and the 32 municipalities, with the County maintaining 2,933 miles of publicly maintained county roads.

County Roads

2017 Miles

2018 Miles

% Change

Paved 740 744 +0.54 Gravel 2,199 2,189 -0.45

Total County Maintained

2,939 2,933 -0.2

In addition, there are currently 471 miles of State Highway system roads which are described below.

State Highway system roads Miles Interstate 65

Arterial Freeway/Expressway 57 Principal Arterial 225

Minor Arterial 57 Major Collector 64 Minor Collector 3

Total 471 (Source: Weld County Department of Public Works)

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Real Estate & Housing

Weld County median prices in 2018 Detached houses: $342,000 Townhouses or other attached units: $248,900 In 2-unit structures: $250,000 In 3-to-4-unit structures: $353,000 In 5-or-more-unit structures: $665,000 Mobile homes: $185,000 (Source: Sears Real Estate)

Single‐Family Home Sales – 2015‐2018

East/North: Nunn, Grover, New Raymer #Sold/Annual

Median %Increase in

Price 2015 26/$191,250 +37% 2016 28/$257,219 +35% 2017 24/$292,000 +14% 2018 29/$300,000 +3%

Central/West: Ault, Eaton, Evans, Greeley, Gilcrest, LaSalle, Johnstown, Milliken, Kersey, Pierce, Severance, Windsor

#Sold/Annual Median

%Increase in Price

2015 3,585/$245,000 +11% 2016 3,716/$275,989 +13% 2017 3,538/$305,000 +11% 2018 4,047/$$330,000 +8%

South: Platteville, Firestone, Frederick, Dacono, Erie, Fort Lupton, Hudson, Keenesburg

#Sold/Annual Median

%Increase in Price

2015 1,121/$324,790 +11%

2016 1,042/$350,000 +8% 2017 1,095/$383,000 +9%

2018 1,081/$402,900 +5%

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Housing & Households

Weld County Housing Units 2000 2010 2017 Total Housing Units 66,194 96,281 110,496 Occupied Housing Units 63,247 89,349 108,073 Vacant Housing Units 2,947 6,932 2,423 Vacancy Rate 4.5% 7.2% 2.2%

(Source: Colorado Demography Office)

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Foreclosures in Weld County

Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Foreclosures 822 1,155 1,500 2,073 2,869 2,824 3,354 2,757 1,919 1,579 820 602 427 411 362 375

(Source: Weld County Public Trustee)

• Weld County’s average of 2.77 persons per household is slightly higher than the state average of 2.49.

• Colorado’s vacancy rate was estimated to be 7.69% in 2017.

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Development Trends Following the Great Recession (2006-2009), development activity in Weld County increased substantially.

Planning Cases by Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Planning Cases 293 328 344 562 573 593 783 887 Planning

Commission Hearing Cases

67 88 70 98 94 80 74 118

Pre-application Meetings 182 244 223 308 267 270 282 334 Walk-in’s 1,231 1,302 1,315 1,549

Number of Lots Created through Recorded Exemptions by Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Number of Lots 123 185 207 228 288 323 367 413

Number of Lots Created through Subdivisions by Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Number of Lots 0 9 6 28 30 14 15 57

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Flood Hazard9%

Nonconforming Use2%

PUD1%

Recorded Exemption17%

Subdivision Exemption3%

Site Plan1%

Use by Special Review8%

Zoning Permit7%

All Other52%

2018 Case Types by Percentage of Total

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Number of Building Permits by Type by Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

New Single-Family Homes 50 85 98 160 169 140 143 170

Manufactured Homes 52 81 102 130 198 160 174 190

Oil & Gas 990 866 829 900 495 383 312 443 Electrical 345 298 313 351 352 396 408 413

Ag Exempt 130 142 142 186 174 213 231 235 Other 749 855 967 947 931 933 990 1,079 Total 2,316 2,327 2,451 2,674 2,319 2,225 2,258 2,530

Total Valuation $126M $322M $365M $783M $462M $298M $358M $584M

Building Inspections, Plan Reviews, and Walk-in’s by Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Inspections 19,056 18,724 18,155 23,052 26,328 24,467 23,474 24,063 Plan Reviews 1,364 1,562 1,849 2,153 2,045 1,895 2,118 2,363

Walk-in’s 4,971 4,264 5,553 5,709

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Oil and Gas In 2009, EOG drilled a well outside the Town of Grover known as the “Jake”. It produced over two thousand (2,000) barrels of oil per day during initial production and gradually subsided. The “Jake” made headlines across the state because it was one of the first wells to be fracked using horizontal drilling technology. Shortly after EOG made headlines, a flurry of oil and gas activity hit Weld County. In particular, the new activity was focused on the Niobrara play, whereas previously the oil and gas activity in Weld County was primarily located in the DJ/Wattenberg basin. Horizontal fracking technology has had positive impacts on the oil and gas industry and will continue to do so in the future. The energy boom ramped up in 2010 and continued strong through early 2015, with the peak hitting in 2014. Oil prices in 2014 averaged $80/barrel. During this peak there were over 85 operators and 65 rigs working 24/7 throughout the County. Beginning in early 2015 the energy sector was hit hard with oil falling to an average of $35/barrel. Many companies folded or were bought-out. Exploration and production has picked up slightly in 2016 - 2017 with an average of 25 rigs working throughout the County.

Weld Oil and Gas Location Assessments (WOGLAs) by Year

Year 2017 2018 Number of Cases 115 193

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Weld County Small Business Incentive Plan (SBIP)

Total Funds Awarded (as of 12/31/2018)

$123,608

Weld County has established a Small Business Incentive Program (BIP) which will provide eligible businesses financial assistance to offset land use, building permit, and several impact fees. The program is designed to reduce upfront capital outlay for small businesses located in unincorporated Weld County.

WHO CAN APPLY?

Any business owner or tenant located in unincorporated Weld County that meets the eligibility requirements.

WHAT ARE THE ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS?

• The subject real property must be located within the County (the “Property”).

• The business shall hire at least fifty (50) percent of their new workforce from Weld County. For the purpose of this application a full-time employee works a minimum of 32 hours per week. The business may have a combination of part-time employees that is the equivalent of at least one (1) full-time employee.

• The applicant must be the record owner(s) of the Property or a tenant.

• The business must have been undertaken after the date of the adoption of this policy.

• This program shall only apply to businesses with 35 or fewer employees at the time of submitting an application.

WHAT CAN BE DONE WITH THESE FUNDS?

The intent of these funds is to offer financial assistance to small businesses that want to operate in Weld County. The financial assistance helps reduce the business’s land use application fees, building permit fees, and impact fees. Fees incurred by the business that are not eligible for funds include consultant and attorney fees, on-site and off-site bonding, collateral requirements, etc.

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Resources:

U.S. Census Bureau Bureau of Labor Statistics

Bureau of Economic Analysis Colorado Demography Office

Colorado Department of Local Affairs Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Colorado Information Marketplace Weld County Planning Services

Weld County GIS Weld County Public Works

Weld County Veterans Services Upstate Colorado Economic Development

Sears Real Estate U.S. Department of Agriculture

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service