The Weekly Bottom Line - April 20, 2011

The Weekly Bottom Line TD Economicswww.td.com/economics

April 21, 2011

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

United States• Withonlyafeweconomicreleasesontap,sovereigndebtissuessteppedbackintothespotlightthisweek.InEurope,

mountingspeculationthatGreecewillhavetoannouncearestructuringofitssovereigndebt,senttheyieldon2-yearGreeknotesnorthof22.0%.Stateside,Standard&Poors,forthefirsttime,placedtheirU.S.triple-Acreditratingonnegativewatch.

• DebtrestructuringinGreecewillalleviateimmediatefiscalhurtles,butitwillnoteliminatetheneedforcontinuedfiscaladjustmentandstructuralreforms.

• IntheU.S.,theS&P’sshotacrossthebowmaybethecatalystgetpolicymakersoffthesidelinesandfocustheirattentiononreachingsomedegreeofagreementonhowtoaddressthenation’slongrunfiscalchallenges.

Canada• InvestorscontinuedtoacquiretheCanadiandollarindrovesthisweek,biddinguptheloonietoafreshthree-and-a

halfyearhighof1.05USdollars.• Allmajordrivers linedup in favourofcurrencystrength, includingU.S.dollarweakness,commoditypricesand

Canadianeconomicdatareleases,whichcausedmarketstoconsideranearlierratehikebytheBankofCanada.Still,forthemostpart,theloonie’sclimbcontinuedtobelargelyastoryofstrongerCanadianfundamentals.

• Lookingahead,whilethefactorsthathaverecentlybeenstrengtheningthecurrencyshouldremainsupportive,wedon’texpectanothersignificantlegup.

Current* WeekAgo

52-WeekHigh

52-WeekLow

Stock Market IndexesS&P500 1,335 1,315 1,343 1,023 S&P/TSXComp. 13,929 13,822 14,271 11,093 DAX 7,288 7,147 7,427 5,670 FTSE100 6,008 5,964 6,091 4,806 Nikkei 9,686 9,654 11,213 8,605 Fixed Income YieldsU.S.10-yrTreasury 3.38 3.50 3.81 2.38Canada10-yrBond 3.29 3.37 3.72 2.69Germany10-yrBund 3.27 3.43 3.49 2.12UK10-yrGilt 3.54 3.69 4.04 2.83Japan10-yrBond 1.24 1.30 1.36 0.85Foreign Exchange Cross RatesC$(USDperCAD) 1.05 1.04 1.05 0.93Euro(USDperEUR) 1.46 1.45 1.46 1.19Pound(USDperGBP) 1.66 1.64 1.66 1.43Yen(JPYperUSD) 81.7 83.5 94.5 78.9Commodity Spot Prices**CrudeOil($US/bbl) 111.2 108.1 112.8 66.0NaturalGas($US/MMBtu) 4.33 4.12 5.17 3.18Copper($US/met.tonne) 9555.3 9389.3 10179.5 6067.8Gold($US/troyoz.) 1504.3 1474.2 1504.3 1141.5

THIS WEEK IN THE MARKETS

*asof11:30amonFriday,**Oil-WTI,Cushing,Nat.Gas-HenryHub,LA(Thursdaycloseprice),Copper-LMEGradeA,Gold-LondonGoldBullion;Source:Bloomberg

FederalReserve(FedFundsRate)BankofCanada(OvernightRate)EuropeanCentralBank(RefiRate)BankofEngland(RepoRate)BankofJapan(OvernightRate)Source:CentralBanks,HaverAnalytics

GLOBAL OFFICIAL POLICY RATE TARGETSCurrentTarget

0.00%0.50%

0-0.25%1.00%1.25%

WEEKLY GAINS vs U.S. DOLLAR

0.21

0.47

0.63

0.96

0.99

1.33

1.49

1.61

1.67

-1 0 1 2 3

N.Zealanddollar

Mexicanpeso

Brazilianreal

Euro

Canadiandollar

Swissfranc

Britishpound

Japaneseyen

Australiandollar

Source:Bloomberg

The Weekly Bottom LineApril 21, 2011

TDEconomicswww.td.com/economics

2

UNITED STATES - SOVEREIGN DEBT REDUX

With only a few economic releases on tap, sovereign debt issues stepped back into the spotlight this week. In Europe, mounting speculation that Greece will have to announce a restructuring of its sovereign debt, perhaps as early as June, sent the yield on 2-year Greek notes north of 22.0%. Stateside, Standard & Poors, for the first time, placed their U.S. triple-A credit rating on negative watch. Concerns over the ability of governments to meet their debt obliga-tions have a way of alarming financial markets, but equity markets shrugged off the news, focusing instead on better than expected earnings reports. As of writing, the S&P 500 was up 1.3% on the week.

Nonetheless, even if issues around fiscal solvency have worn out their shock factor, they do have implications for the economic outlook. We have just published a report out-lining some of the consequences a Greek debt restructuring would bring upon Greece’s economy, the European banking system, and the other debt-beleaguered European nations. It is very clear that a debt restructuring would alleviate Greek’s immediate fiscal hurdles, but it would not eliminate the need for fiscal adjustment and structural reforms. Moreover, the impact of such an event on Greek banks will result in a very stringent monetary setting, which would, in turn, exacerbate the negative impact on economic growth.

On the European banking system, aggregate data on banks’ exposure to both sovereign and banking Greek debt suggest that the initial hit from a Greek restructuring would be manageable. However, the critical issue is that individual institutions could be destabilized, triggering a second round of contagion effects. And, once Greece announces restructur-ing efforts, this would prompt markets to quickly speculate the same outcome for Ireland and Portugal, which will further complicate the resolution of the ongoing debt crisis. Social appetite for bail-outs and adjustments programs will run very thin in countries requesting financial aid, as well as in those being asked to help.

In any case, we should stress that sovereign debt restruc-turings are lengthy processes. A final resolution to this crisis and the materialization of its economic impact will not be fully known for several years after a restructuring takes place. In the meantime, brace yourself for a lot of turbulence.

Back in the U.S.A., fiscal Armageddon isn’t so immi-nent. S&P’s outlook downgrade did not reflect weakness in the economy (they reaffirmed their economic growth forecast of 3.0% over the next several years). Instead, the announcement served as a reprimand against politicians’ in-

ability to compromise. The timing of the announcement was well-placed, too, coming as it did at a moment when deficit reduction is increasingly dominating the political debate in Washington. Treasury Secretary Geithner has given a stern warning to Congress that unless it votes to raise the debt ceiling, the Treasury will default on its debt obligations by early summer. While Congress will almost certainly vote accordingly, some empowered House Republicans have used it as a means of extracting budgetary concessions from the Democrats. Last week, House Republicans and the Obama administration released their respective plans to fix the na-tion’s long-term budgetary woes. Unfortunately, neither party has come up with a solution amenable to policymakers across the aisle. The Democrats are reluctant to cut spend-ing where it matters – the nation’s entitlement programs need the most fixing – while the Republicans are loathe to raise taxes. Any long-term solution requires a combination of both, as we wrote about in our report, Putting the U.S. Fiscal House In Order.

It is important to remember that these are long-term problems: the U.S. is still investors’ favored and most trusted sovereign. The U.S. treasury market is the most liquid in the world and U.S. bonds are still very much the safe ha-ven of last resort. The country will continue to hold such a privileged financial position for the foreseeable future. But the events of this week should serve as a stark reminder that markets can revoke this privilege at any time.

James Marple, Senior Economist416-982-2557

EUROPEAN BANKING EXPOSURE TO PIIGS

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Belgium

Germany

France

Netherlands

Switzerland

U.K.Austria

Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Spain

Source:BIS,TDEconomics,asofSeptember2010

%ofLender'sTotalBankingSystemReserves

http://www.td.com/economics/special/ms0411_GreekDebtRestructuring.pdf

http://www.td.com/economics/special/jm1210_fiscal.pdf

http://www.td.com/economics/special/jm1210_fiscal.pdf



3

CANADA – LOONIE FLIES TO NEW HEIGHTS

Investors continued to acquire the Canadian dollar in droves this week, bidding up the loonie to a fresh three-and-a-half year high of 1.05 US dollars. All major drivers lined up in favour of currency strength, including U.S. dollar weakness, commodity prices and Canadian economic data releases, which caused markets to consider an earlier rate hike by the Bank of Canada.

On Monday, news of S&P’s downgrade of the long-term outlook on U.S. government debt from stable to negative weakened sentiment towards U.S. denominated financial as-sets. The ensuing sell-off brought about some depreciation in the U.S. dollar against other major currencies, including the Canadian dollar.

Still, for the most part, the loonie’s climb continued to be largely a story of stronger Canadian fundamentals. With investors looking for ways to diversify their holdings on U.S. dollar softness, a number of key commodity prices strengthened during the week, with crude oil reaching the highest intraday price since April 11 of US$112 per barrel. Gold prices broke above US$1,500 per ounce, before losing some modest ground late in the week. Elsewhere within the commodity complex, prices increased with lumber being one of the sole soft spots. As such, the recent commodity bull run remained intact.

Another major boost to the Canadian dollar was de-livered by the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, which revealed an unexpectedly large jump in inflation. Notably, the year-over-year increase in the headline CPI accelerated from 2.2% in February to 3.3% in March on the back of sharp gains in energy, food and clothing prices. While the core measure of the CPI (which excludes the eight most volatile items in the consumption basket) rose at a more subdued pace of 1.7% in March, it still represented a near-doubling from a 26-year low of 0.9% in the prior month. While some of the year-over-year jump reflected the impact of Vancouver’s hosting of the Winter Olympics in February 2010, which temporarily raised tourism-related prices and depressed the previous month’s annual reading, investors were surprised at the broad-based nature of the strength. While a month does not make a trend, fixed-income markets priced in a higher risk of a near-term Bank of Canada rate hike.

Today, the retail trade data for February was also cur-rency positive. Snapping out of two straight months of decline, total sales rose by a decent 0.4% M/M in both real

and nominal terms from January. Excluding autos, which contracted by 0.6% on the month, retail sales posted a particularly solid 0.7% gain in the month. Next Friday, the release of real Gross Domestic product (GDP) for the month of February will shed further light on the overall strength of the economy. While we expect real GDP to come in flat on a month-to-month basis, it would follow two exceptionally strong months of growth, leaving Canada’s expansion on track to come in at about 4% in the first quarter as a whole.

In light of these reports, yields on Canadian government 2-year bonds rose by approximately 6 basis points this week. And with U.S. comparable yields moving down by 3 basis points, foreign-exchange investors were attracted to the more favourable returns North of the border.

Looking ahead, while the factors that have recently been strengthening the currency should remain supportive, we don’t expect another significant leg up. Look for April CPI data to confirm that the March pop in CPI was an aberration, thus giving the Bank of Canada some leeway to wait until its July Fixed Announcement Date to resume rate hikes. Second, barring a further outbreak in tensions in the Middle East, oil prices look set to pull back closer to US$100 per barrel as focus shifts to slowing growth in emerging markets. Next year, a pull back to the mid-90 cent range looks to be a likely bet as expectations of Fed tightening increase.

Shahrzad Fard, Economist 416-944-5729

CANADA & US 2-YEAR BOND SPREAD

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

3/21 3/23 3/25 3/29 3/31 4/04 4/06 4/08 4/12 4/14 4/18 4/20

Percent

Source:Bloomberg,TDEconomics



4

U.S.: UPCOMING KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES

Strong aircraft orders are expected to provide a sig-nificant boost to durable goods orders in March, with total orders rising at a robust 2.0% M/M pace. Excluding trans-portation, however, orders are set to rise at a more modest 1.0% M/M pace, while core capital goods orders should also be positive. This underscores the positive momentum in the tone of overall capital expenditures, despite the transient weakness during the first two months of the year. In the month ahead, as the economic recovery continues to gain traction we expect the tone of capital expenditures to remain positive as firms increase production activity to meet rising demand for their products.

*ForecastbyRatesandFXStrategyGroup.Forfurtherinformation,contactTDRates&[email protected].

U.S. Durable Goods Orders - March* Release Date: April 27, 2011FebruaryResult: Headline -0.9%; Ex-trans -0.6% TD Forecast: Headline 2.0%; Ex-trans 1.0%Consensus: Headline 2.0%; Ex-trans 2.2%

U.S. Durable Goods Orders*

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11

M/M%Chg.

*Newordersfordurablegoodsindustries,seasonallyadjustedSource:U.S.CensusBureau

The FOMC meeting next week will demonstrate that the doves remain in firm control of the policy process. The onset of a new rate regime is about proportion and risk, dictated by a greater urgency to move policy off its emergency setting and toward 1.0%. That will take months to materialize. The April FOMC meeting will provide little ammunition to presume that transition is taking shape. Two questions present themselves. First, what will the FOMC say about QE2, and second, what clues will be released that the Fed is inclined to passively tighten after June. On the first, there will be a reaffirmation that the program will be completed. That is already priced in. On the second, there is not likely to be anything of value for the simple reason the Fed is unsure of what to do. We know that if they passively tighten after June the balance sheet will still be bigger at

year-end than it is now. However, it is all about signaling, and stung by the aftermath of QE1, the Fed will prefer to play it close to the vest for now, and ultimately on the safe side.

FED FUNDS TARGET RATE

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

%

Source:U.S.FederalReserveBoard/HaverAnalytics

U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision* Release Date: April 27, 2011Current Rate: 0.0 0% to 0.25%TD Forecast: 0.0 0% to 0.25%Consensus: 0.0 0% to 0.25%

mailto:TDRates&[email protected]



5

Despite the backdrop of a sub-par labor market recovery and declining housing wealth, US consumer have not let-up in their spending. We expect personal income to grow at a respectable 0.5% M/M pace, reflecting the improvement in labor market conditions. Personal spending is also expected to advance during the month, boasting a 0.5% M/M gain, bringing it in line with the gains in retail sales during the month. Moreover, with spending growing at about the same pace as income, the savings rate should remain relatively unchanged at 5.8%. In terms of inflation, given the signifi-cant amount of slack in the economy, we expect the core PCE deflator to remain unchanged, mirroring the modest rise in the core CPI indicator. In the coming months, we expect the pace of personal consumption expenditures to

remain relatively low as U.S. households continue to repair their badly damaged balance sheets and the core deflator to remain subdued.

U.S. Personal Income & Spending - March* Release Date: April 29, 2011February Result: income 0.3% M/M, spending 0.7% M/MTD Forecast: income 0.5% M/M; spending 0.5% M/MConsensus: income 0.4% M/M; spending 0.5% M/M

U.S. PERSONAL INCOME AND SPENDING

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11

SpendingIncome

M/M%Chg.

Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis/HaverAnalytics


The recovery is expected to hit a temporary soft patch in Q1 with the economy growing at a below-trend 1.8% Q/Q ann. pace. This will be almost half the 3.1% Q/Q pace achieved in Q4, though the economy is expect to boast a 3.0% growth rate during the year. Weak trade activity should be the key source of drag on economic activity during the quarter, while declining government consump-tion and residential investments should also subtract from growth. Consumer spending, on the other hand, is expected to rise during the quarter positing a modest 1.7% Q/Q ad-vance, following the 4.1% Q/Q surge in the prior quarter. However, with the sustained improvement in labor market conditions continuing to be constructive for spending, we expect the growth in personal consumption expenditures

to accelerate further boosting overall economic activity in the coming quarters. Non-residential capital investments should also add favorably to growth.

U.S. Real GDP - Q1/11Release Date: April 28, 2011Q4 Result: 3.1% Q/Q ann.TD Forecast: 1.8% Q/Q Consensus: 1.8% Q/Q

U.S. REAL GDP

3.0

0.9

3.22.3

2.9

-0.7

0.6

-4.0

-6.8

-4.9

1.6

5.03.7

2.63.1

1.7

-0.7

-9

-7

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source:BEA

AnnualizedQ/Q%Chg.



6

CANADA: UPCOMING KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES


On an industry-level basis, real GDP is expected to have remained unchanged in the month of February. With respect to its composition, both manufacturing and wholesale vol-umes fell in the month (down 2.3% and 1.0% respectively) while real retail sales did post a respectable 0.4% gain. Elsewhere in the report, it is expected that both the mining sector and utilities may also be on the soft side.

While our expectation for February is certainly disap-pointing, it follows a very robust 0.5% increase in January. As such, when looking at the quarter as a whole, we remain comfortable with our forecast for expenditure-based annual-ized real GDP growth in the ballpark of 3.8%. The prospect of another quarter featuring above-trend growth is consistent with the Bank of Canada’s expectation that the output gap

is smaller than previously believed and will close at a faster rate. Following the upside surprise on inflation in March, the evidence supporting a July rate hike continues to grow.

Canadian GDP - February*Release Date: March 31, 2011January Result: 0.5% M/MTD Forecast: 0.0% M/MConsensus: n/a

CANADIAN REAL GDP*

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11

*RealGDPatbasicpricesin2002chaineddollarsSource:StatisticsCanada/HaverAnalytics

M/M%Chg.

mailto:TDRates&[email protected]



7

RECENT KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS: APRIL 18-22, 2011

Apr19 BuildingPermits Mar Thousands 11.2 -5.2 RApr19 HousingStarts Mar M/M%Chg. 7.2 -18.5 RApr 20 MBAMortgageApplications 15-Apr W/W%Chg. 5.3 -6.7Apr 20 ExistingHomeSales Mar Millions 5.10 4.92 RApr 21 InitialJoblessClaims 16-Apr Thousands 403 416 RApr 21 ContinuingClaims 9-Apr Thousands 3695 3702 RApr 21 HousePriceIndex Feb M/M%Chg. -1.6 -1.0 RApr 21 LeadingIndicators Mar M/M%Chg. 0.4 1.0 RApr 21 PhiladelphiaFed. Apr Index 18.5 43.4

Apr18 Int'lSecuritiesTransactions Feb CAD,Blns 2.50 13.37 RApr19 ConsumerPriceIndex Mar M/M%Chg. 1.1 0.3Apr19 BankofCanadaCPICore Mar M/M%Chg. 0.7 0.2Apr19 LeadingIndicators Mar M/M%Chg. 0.8 1.1 RApr19 WholesaleSales Feb M/M%Chg. -0.6 1.5 RApr 21 RetailSales Feb M/M%Chg. 0.4 -0.4 RApr 21 RetailSalesLessAutos Feb M/M%Chg. 0.7 -0.2 R

Apr18 EC Euro-ZoneConsumerConfidence Apr Index -11.4 -10.6Apr19 GE PMIManufacturing Apr Index 61.7 60.9Apr19 GE PMIServices Apr Index 57.7 60.1Apr19 EC Euro-ZoneCurrentAccountSA Feb Euro,Blns -7.2 -5.6 RApr19 EC PMIManufacturing Apr Index 57.7 57.5Apr19 EC PMIServices Apr Index 56.9 57.2Apr19 JN AdjustedMerchndsTradeBal. Mar Yen,Blns 96.3 477.4Apr20 GE ProducerPrices Mar Y/Y%Chg. 6.2 6.4Apr21 GE IFO-BusinessClimate Apr Index 110.4 111.1Apr21 GE IFO-Expectations Apr Index 104.7 106.5Apr21 UK RetailSalesExAutoFuel Mar Y/Y%Chg. 0.9 0.8 R

Source:Bloomberg,TDEconomics

International

Prior

Canada

United States

ReleaseDate Economic Indicators Data for

Period Units Current



8

ReleaseDate Time* Economic Indicator/Event Data for

Period Units ConsensusForecast Last Period

Apr25 10:00 NewHomeSales Mar M/M%Chg. 12.0 -16.9Apr25 10:30 DallasFedManf.Activity Apr Index 12.7 11.5Apr26 9:00 S&P/CS20City Feb M/M%Chg. -0.4 -0.2Apr26 10:00 ConsumerConfidence Apr Index 64.4 63.4Apr26 10:00 RichmondFedManufact.Index Apr Index 20 20Apr27 7:00 MBAMortgageApplications 22-Apr W/W%Chg. -- 5.3Apr27 8:30 DurableGoodsOrders Mar M/M%Chg. 2 -0.9Apr27 8:30 DurablesExTransportation Mar M/M%Chg. 2.2 -0.6Apr27 12:30 FOMCRateDecision 27-Apr % 0.25 0.25Apr27 14:15 Bernanke Speaks at Fed Press ConferenceApr28 8:30 ChicagoFedNatActivityIndex Mar Index -- -0.04Apr28 8:30 GDPQoQ(Annualized) 1QA Q/Q%Chg. 1.8 3.1Apr28 8:30 GDPPriceIndex 1QA Q/Q%Chg. 2.5 0.4Apr28 8:30 InitialJoblessClaims 23-Apr Thousands -- --Apr28 8:30 ContinuingClaims 16-Apr Thousands -- --Apr28 8:30 Fed's Williams Speaks at Community Affairs Conf.Apr28 9:45 BloombergConsumerComfort 24-Apr Index -- --Apr28 10:00 PendingHomeSales Mar M/M%Chg. 1.5 2.1Apr29 8:30 EmploymentCostIndex 1Q Q/Q%Chg. 0.5 0.4Apr29 8:30 PersonalIncome Mar M/M%Chg. 0.4 0.3Apr29 8:30 PersonalSpending Mar M/M%Chg. 0.5 0.7Apr29 9:45 ChicagoPurchasingManager Apr Index 69.2 70.6Apr29 10:00 NAPM-Milwaukee Apr Index -- 66Apr29 12:30 Bernanke Speaks at Fed Community-Affairs Conf.

Apr27 9:00 Teranet/NationalBankHPI Feb M/M%Chg. -- 0.4Apr29 8:30 GrossDomesticProduct Feb M/M%Chg. -- 0.5

Apr26 21:30 AU ConsumerPrices 1Q Y/Y%Chg. 3.0 2.7Apr26 19:50 JN RetailTrade Mar Y/Y%Chg. -6.2 0.1Apr27 19:30 JN JoblessRate Mar % 4.8 4.6Apr27 19:30 JN NatlCPI Mar Y/Y%Chg. 0.0 0.0Apr27 19:50 JN IndustrialProduction MarP Y/Y%Chg. -8.5 2.9Apr27 17:00 NZ RBNZOfficialCashRate 28-Apr % 2.50 2.50Apr27 4:30 UK GDP 1QA Y/Y%Chg. 1.8 1.5Apr28 3:55 GE UnemploymentRate(s.a) Apr % 7.0. 7.1Apr28 18:45 NZ TradeBalance Mar $,Millions 200 194Apr28 JN BOJTargetRate % 0.1 0.1Apr29 5:00 EC Euro-ZoneCPIEstimate Apr Y/Y%Chg. 2.7 2.6Apr29 5:00 EC Euro-ZoneUnemploymentRate Mar % 9.9 9.9

*EasternStandardTime;Sources:Bloomberg,TDEconomics

Canada

International

United States

UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES AND EVENTS: APRIL 25 - 29, 2011



9

Thisreport isprovidedbyTDEconomics forcustomersofTDBankGroup.Itisforinformationpurposesonlyandmaynotbeappropriateforotherpurposes.ThereportdoesnotprovidematerialinformationaboutthebusinessandaffairsofTDBankGroupandthemembersofTDEconomicsarenotspokespersonsforTDBankGroupwithrespecttoitsbusinessandaffairs.Theinformationcontainedinthisreporthasbeendrawnfromsourcesbelievedtobereliable,butisnotguaranteedtobeaccurateorcomplete.Thereportcontainseconomicanalysisandviews,includingaboutfutureeconomicandfinancialmarketsperformance.Thesearebasedoncertainassumptionsandotherfactors,andaresubjecttoinherentrisksanduncertainties.Theactualoutcomemaybemateriallydifferent.TheToronto-DominionBankanditsaffiliatesandrelatedentitiesthatcompriseTDBankGrouparenotliableforanyerrorsoromissionsintheinformation,analysisorviewscontainedinthisreport,orforanylossordamagesuffered.

CONTACTS AT TD ECONOMICS

Craig AlexanderSenior Vice President and

Chief Economist mailto:[email protected]

TO REACH US Mailing Address 55KingStreetWest 21stFloor,TDTower Toronto,Ontario M5K1A2 Fax:(416)944-5536 mailto:[email protected]

CANADIAN ECONOMIC ANALYSISDerek Burleton, Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist mailto:[email protected] Pascal Gauthier Senior Economist mailto:[email protected]

Diana Petramala Economist, Macro mailto:[email protected]

Francis Fong Economist, Special Studies mailto:[email protected]

Dina Cover Economist, Industry mailto:[email protected]

Shahrzad Mobasher Fard Economist, Industry mailto:[email protected]

Sonya Gulati Economist, Regional and Government Finances mailto:[email protected]

Leslie Preston Economic Analyst mailto:[email protected]

U.S. & INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANALYSISBeata Caranci, Associate Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist mailto:[email protected] James Marple Senior Economist mailto:[email protected]

Martin Schwerdtfeger Economist, International mailto:[email protected]

Christos Shiamptanis Economist mailto:[email protected]

Alistair Bentley Economist mailto:[email protected]

Chris Jones Economic Analyst mailto:[email protected]

Documents

The Weekly Bottom Line - April 20, 2011