HOW COLUMBIA COULD REPRESENT THE FUTURE OF AMERICA

11-10-10

The Way ForwardPlanning for the 21st Century

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America confronting a Great Reset2

―Economic systems do not exist in the abstract; they are embedded within the geographic fabric of the society – the way land is used, the locations of homesand businesses, the infrastructure that ties people, places and commerce together . . . A reconfigurationof this economic landscape is the real distinguishing characteristic of a Great Reset.‖

~ Richard Florida

A Comprehensive Plan must address our huge Challenges of Today

Identify the top Global & National Trends

Restore Prosperity

Transform/Reposition our Community for the realities of 21st C & the Next Economy

Next American Economy must be very different

Innovation Fueled

Export Oriented

Low Carbon

Metro Led

Entrepreneurially driven

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Brookings

Four General Forces for the 21st C4

Uncertainty & volatility: frequent, rapid, unexpected

change; innovations & disruptions

Complexity: rapid flow of people, money & ideas; more choices ,

more competition; more information to more people about more things

Diversity: broader geographic scope comes greater variety of

people & organization in culture, community, nation, & gender or race

Transparency & responsibility: digital tools with

higher expectations, higher standards to accomplish the public agenda

Super Corps

Vanguard

Organizations

The

Strategic

Value

of

Values &

Principles

Competitive differences

Public accountability via end-to-end responsibility

Rationale for thinking long-term

Common vocabulary & guidance for consistent decisions

Talent magnets & motivation machines

―Human‖ control systems –peer review & a self-control system

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S A F E G U A R D O U R H O M E S - - C R E A T E J O B S

G I V E K I D S A B R E A K – - B A L A N C E W O R K & L I F E

P R O T E C T V U L N E R A B L E F A M I L Y M E M B E R S - - T A X F A I R L Y

P R O T E C T O U R H E A L T H - - P R O T E C T O U R F U T U R E

S U P P O R T M A R R I A G E - – S A F E G U A R D O U R H O M E S

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Real Family Values 9 progressive policies to support our families

Transformational Enterprises: New Leadership for the Future

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Make values & vision part of the daily conversation

See your work as part of the daily conversation

Stress innovation: problems, solutions & ideas

Think in terms of networks

Create routines, consistent processes

Stress projects over position/title; help people have fun

Treat employees as though they were volunteers

Cultivate empathy & understand power of emotions

Allocate time for external service & connect to values

Global forces that will restructure the world economy for the foreseeable future

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The great rebalancing emerging-market countries

contribute to growth with middle class growth & innovation

The productivity imperative to power continued

economic growth through innovation

The global grid seeding new business models &

accelerating the pace of innovation

Pricing the planet resource productivity, substantial

clean-tech industries & regulatory initiatives

The market state governments under pressure to

maintain social stability in an increasingly globalized world

McKinsey

5 Phenomena of the Century (so far)

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1. Widespread recognition of how industry clusters work & how they further an urban economy

2. Richard Florida’s publishing of ―Rise of the Creative Class”- attract & retain talent & 21st C jobs

3. Rise of Asian cities as global commercial, manufacturing and financial hubs

4. The Green Revolution – the shift to more sustainable urban construction & sustainable design

5. Re-birth of urban-style living – 21st C lifestyles (green, more women working, gas prices, & cost of living )

All About Cities

5 Big Trends will shape the future decade:

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1- Rise and Fall of Nations (US & Europe falling, Asia rising)

2- Rise and Fall of Generations (Boomers falling, Gen Y rising)

3- Behavioral Modification of Organizations (social media-ization of business, health, education, politics)

4- Urbanization of world’s population

5- Global warming (winners & losers in the restructuring of the global economy)

Shaping Tomorrow

Restoring Prosperity

The

Scary

Truth

about the

Great

Recession

Can’t afford what was passed as the American Dream

Cannot run up debt equal to 122% of earnings

Cheaper places to live, high quality of life, livability

Long time before businesses, households, & government treasuries shake off the effects

In midst of re-casting the new economy

People will follow quality of living

Jobs will follow talented people

Cities with low cost of living will win

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We have long assumed that…12

We would always enjoy unlimited supplies of cheap oil.

We could always build our way out of congestion.

Places and buildings are disposable.

Americans with financial choices would never give up their cars or their backyards.

Consumption is good.

Being cheap was far more important than anything else we could name.

ceosforcities

We have long assumed that… continued

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We could always find new sources of labor to get the job done.

Our kids would grow up and stay close to home.

People are essentially locked in place. Only companies & the very rich were mobile.

When people do move, they move for jobs.

Homogeneity has no downside.

People would never return to old, decaying, vacant inner cities. And who cared anyway? Core cities no longer mattered.

The new realitieslook more like this:

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Gas is expensive and predicted to get more so – sooner than later.

We can’t build enough highways fast enough to significantly reduce time spent in traffic.

Places & buildings matter, & it’s important to get them right the firsttime.

Transit ridership is at its highest since the car became popular. empty nesters are downsizing as fast as they can, to find homes they can ―lock & leave‖

Labor, which for 40 years has been plentiful thanks to boomers, will tighten as boomers retire; there are no more college grads or women to balloon the labor force.

The new realities look more like this: continued

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It’s not just the rich who are mobile. Young people are far more mobile than we ever imagined. The more educated they are, the more mobile they are.

It’s not just about jobs anymore, and it is sure not about cheap. 64% of college-educated young adults say first they choose the city they want tolive in, then they look for a job.

No one wants to live in our core cities, right? Wrong. Young adults – that coveted labor force -- are now 30% more likely to live within a 3-mile radius of the central business district .

People in creative occupations are 53% more likely to live in close-in neighborhoods. Empty nesters are also headed downtown.

The old way of thinking?... The strength of core cities doesn’t matter to the region. We can leave the city to decline & the rest of the region will be fine.

A look at where we’re headed in the next decade . . .

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Climate change models

Energy options

Personalized medicine

The housing market

Mobile technology

Mass transit

Food & nutrition

In the home: Green

Commercial & real estate

Education & technology

The Republic

We must have strong Cities to have a strong America

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• Access to opportunity in the form of education & jobs, + breaking our dependence on oil

• Reducing carbon emissions

• Reversing the growing problem of obesity and

• Demonstrating that the American dream works best

• When we take full advantage of our diversity.

ceosforcities

Renewed prosperity hinges on . . .18

The ―spatial fix‖—the creation of new development patterns, new ways of living & working, & new economic landscapes –expand space & intensify our use

More massive & more intensive geographic pattern—the mega-region

Infrastructure that can undergird another round of growth &development - a better & faster information highway, high-speed rail

Make existing infrastructure far more efficient by using information technology to create ―smart‖ grids & highways

A new set of design principles to spark 21st economies, communities, societies, & ignite a more authentic, enduring prosperity

Denser, walkable, pedestrian-friendly areas with street fronts

& outdoor markets, cafes, flowers, small public parks, green spaces

Communities need to be very, very good at doing four key things:

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Developing, attracting & retaining talent

Connecting their citizens to opportunity, their city to the region & their region to the global economy

Understanding what makes their community distinctive & having the confidence to capitalize on it

Developing the capacity for innovation within government & within the broader community

Columbia needs to excel in areas most critical to urban success:

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The Talented City

Developing, maximizing, attracting & retaining talent

The Innovative City

Fostering innovation & entrepreneurship

The Connected City

Fostering connections that link people with ideas to talent, capital & markets; cities to regions; &

regions to the global economy

The Distinctive City

Capitalizing on local differences to build local economic opportunity

5 big (very big) ambitions that, together, Columbia can define a new American Dream:

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Opportunity: We will develop (& attract) all of our

talent & put all of our talent to work

Livability: We will all have access to beauty & nature

every day

Connectivity: We can meet our daily needs without

owning a car

Community: We can all participate in a robust public

life

Optimism: We believe that the future can be better for

each of us & all of us

10 Ways to Solve the Job Problem

Imagine a no-holds-barred ―summit‖ that comes up with ideas to solve both our job &environmental problems

1. More farms, less agribusiness

2. More repair, fewer product

3. More recycling, less mining

4. More renovations, less construction

5. More restoration, less destruction

6. More bike paths, fewer highways

7. More local businesses, fewer megastores

8. More dishwashing, fewer throw-aways

9. More education, less advertising

10. More clean energy, less fossil fuel

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4 concrete approaches for moving Columbia forward:

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• Building the infrastructure for 21st century jobs & innovation through investments in broadband Internet, cell service, & transportation networks

• Providing the capital to allow businesses to grow through tax incentives, micro-finance programs &expanding the seed capital fund

• Investing in education, universities & tech transfer programs to bring ideas from the classroom to the global marketplace

• Improving the culture in Columbia to stimulate entrepreneurship by making government more efficient, responsive & transparent (Smart Systems)

Challenge of Providing Services to the Public

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America’s Challenge

Now

is the time

to invest in

affordability

&

sustainability

Energy conservation

Green Building

Transit-oriented development

Urban regeneration

Renewable energy

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Columbia’sChallenges

For the

21st

Century

Graying of America

Browning of America

Rise of the single person households

Aging infrastructure

Aging suburbs

Climate change

Urban sprawl

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The Great Reset

a whole new economic landscape

and

massive movements of people

A True Reset transforms into simply the way we innovate & produce but also ushers in a whole new economic landscape. As it takes shape around new infrastructure & systems of transportation, it gives rise to new housing patterns, realigning where & how we live & work. Eventually it ushers in a whole new way of life . . .

Great Resets are defined not just by innovation but by massive movements of people. . . . These are times when talent flows out of some places & into others. . . . These Talent Resets thus shift the balance of power among cities & regions as well as among nations. Locations rise or fall based on their ability to attract, retain & productively use talent of all sorts – from brilliant innovators to unskilled laborers.

~ Richard Florida

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How will Columbia address The Great Reset . . .

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Improvements in efficiency & productivity, (IBM Smart City) & by the waves of innovation (―creative destruction‖)

Government should be proposing policies that will help to create a new geography & a new way of life to sustain & support it

As the new economy emerges, a new geography & newinfrastructure of living & working must come into being

Encourage a freer flow of ideas; encourage universities to turn new discoveries into companies that can grow & create jobs; & actively enable & attract entrepreneurs

Our education/workforce training systems need more dynamic approach to encourage m0re hands-on, interactive creativity

The Great Reset continued . . .

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Clusters of diverse creative businesses are increasingly important for creative industries with success dependent upon

soft (networking, knowledge, human capital, sense of identity, digital

networking, advanced workspace design, urban screens, other kinds of digital place-making, - all of which build on the fluid, face-to-face

interaction of physical space. ) &

hard infrastructure

Deep structural reforms to improve its supply side.

The quality of its financial sector, its physical infrastructure, as well as its human capital, all needserious economic & politically difficult upgrades

Federal Policy needs to encourage . . . 30

less home ownership

greater density of development

construction of smaller & more low-energy houses

free up capital that can be invested in the skill development, technology development, business innovation & economic structures

eliminate/cap mortgage interest tax deduction & other massive federal subsidies (secondary mortgage market, road construction & infrastructure) that undergird sprawling, economically inefficient, utterly wasteful suburban & exurban development

intense concentration in urban centers is key to buoyant modern economies

Cities need to plan for a Livable Community and a Healthy Community

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Columbia plans for future growth by . . .

identifying priority programs, policies, &strategies to improve the health* of Columbians while advancing the goals of protecting natural resources & agricultural lands, increasing the availability of affordable housing, improving infrastructure systems, promoting public health, planning sustainable communities, improving water quality, & meeting the state’s climate change goals.

* A ―Health in All Policies‖ Mindset (―people-centric‖)

Columbia plans by considering . . .32

Need to find our way back to some of the design principles of the traditional American city with a much broader spectrum of housing opportunities

Suburban sprawl came about as a result of two major subsidies: interstate system & the single-home mortgage deduction

Importance of creating pedestrian-friendly & ecologically sound communities, environments that that promote a sense of connectedness & place

To make the design of buildings & infrastructure create a sense of place, environmentally, culturally & socially

Top ten trends shaping the future of America's communities

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1. Placemaking - around the globe

2. Collaboration - key to making change

3. Greenplace - revitalization fights climate change

4. Placemaking - vibrant travel destinations

5. Libraries - new town squares

6. How cities stay lively 12 months a year

7. The Power of 10 leverages community assets

8. Public markets - a leg up in a down economy

9. The rise of community-based transportation planning

10. New developments create innovative models for destinations

A Healthy Community provides for the following through all stages of life:

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1. Meets basic needs of all

2. Quality & sustainability of environment

3. Adequate levels of economic, social development

4. Health and social equity

1. Meets basic needs of all

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Safe, sustainable, accessible & affordable transportation options

Affordable, accessible & nutritious foods

Affordable, high quality, socially integrated & location-efficient housing

Affordable, accessible & high quality health care

Complete and livable communities including affordable &high quality schools, parks & recreational facilities, child care, libraries, financial services & other daily needs

Access to affordable & safe opportunities for physical activity

2. Quality and sustainability of environment

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Clean air, soil and water, & environments free of excessive noise

Tobacco & smoke free

Green & open spaces, including agricultural landsMinimized toxics, GHG emissions & waste

Affordable & sustainable energy use

3. Adequate levels of economic, social development

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Living wage, safe & healthy job opportunities for all

Support for healthy development of children & adolescents

Opportunities for high quality & accessible education

4. Health and social equity

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Social relationships that are supportive & respectful

Robust social & civic engagement

Socially cohesive & supportive relationships, families, homes & neighborhoods

Safe communities, free of crime & violence

Building Livable Communities:Creating a Common Agenda

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Livability has become the framework for Congress, our administration, & our federal agencies to invest in the quality of life, economic competitiveness, & recovery of the American community

HUD, DOT, & EPA & Partners for Livable Communities will be engaging the full range of livability values: transportation, housing, & amenities: arts, cultural heritage, & design.

This blending of strategies has created a livability tool kit that city, state, & national leaders can use to revitalize the American community.

Brookings & EPA

Building Livable Communities:Creating a Common Agenda

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Provide transportation choices

Promote equitable, affordable housing

Increase economic competitiveness

Support existing communities

Leverage federal investment

Value communities & neighborhoods

Building Livable Communities41

Creating a better 21st century

means choosing to stop living

in the 20th century.

The New Economy

The features

of the

New Economy

Time is market in New Economy

Quality is the goal

Flexibility is the new standard

Knowledge is the new raw material

Networks provide collaborative advantage

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The New Economy values:43

• Economic regions, which provide a habitat for clustering

• Distinctive quality of life, which attracts knowledge workers

• Vital centers, which offer lively amenities & opportunities forInteraction

• Choice for living & working, which acknowledges increasingdiversity of career & life paths

• Speed & adaptability, which allow quick access to decisions& resources

• The natural environment as an important & compatibleelement of community.

The Economy of the Future will have the following characteristics:

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Balance - investment & employment, integrated clusters

Energy - maximizes conservation & alternative energy sources

Entrepreneurship – climate of ed, training, research & finance

International – integrated into world economy using our assets

Quality of Life – progressive planning & smart investment

Quality Work Force – educated, trained & adaptable to needs

Sustainable – built upon evolution of our strength for future gen

Technology – encourage innovation & create tech applications

Ideas Economy: Human Potential45

Global challenge: How do we educate billions of new people in the coming decades—& manage their successful entry into the global economy‖ —in age of high unemployment & aging demographics?

bringing together the smartest minds from government, academia & business

young workers demanding entirely new work environments

aging population that requires heavy resources

the nature of work & talent development must evolve dramatically

Five key trends for local Economic Development in the 2010s

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The arts as engines for the creative & experience economies

The growth of "free agent" nation

Ethnic minority/neighborhood communities as emerging markets

Green industries replacing gray industries

Transnational communities as market expanders, industry clusters

Entrepreneurs & homepreneurs, hobbypreneurs

Leonardo Vazquez. AICP/PP

The Future of Work is about . . . 47

1) Work becomes more about meaning & impact than repeatable tasks

2) 9 to 5 is so yesterday

3) Global sourcing goes on steroids enabling third world opportunity and growth

4) Free Agent Nation becomes a reality

5) Projects are more important than jobs

6) Teams assemble and reassemble based on the job to be done

7) Changing nature of work transforms our daily commute & transportation systems

The Future of Work . . . continued

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8) Industrial era organizations give way to purposeful networks

9) Everything we think & know about professions will change

10) Education is no longer K-16 but a life long commitment

11) Workforce & economic development are transformed become indistinguishable

12) Work becomes more self organized & less institutionally driven

13) Job titles are more about what you can do than meaningless status monikers

The Future of Work . . . continued

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14) Compensation is about performance outcomes not seniority

15) Entrepreneurship becomes democratized & the key economic driver

16) Work and social become indistinguishable

17) Getting better faster is imperative

18) Art & design become integral to work & value creation

19) Making things becomes important & interesting again

20) Passion drives meaningful work

Building Future Housing

Key Drivers

for the

21st Century City

Where & how people want to live Highly-sensitive & inter-related

system with high quality amenities Effectiveness of development &

management at a neighborhood level More adaptable & responsive to

change Innovation in the construction to be

encouraged Greater understanding of market, need

& demand, economic prospects & demographics is required

Where should strategic responsibility lie for planning & housing

Review of policy is required with a long term view

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FutureHousing

Demographic changes

driving new

Residential Development

Changing Household TypesGrowth in non-traditional-family households

Changing face of renters and owners

Impact of ImmigrationWhen, where and how immigrants live

Impact of Race/Ethnicity

Implications for Different Housing Types

Relationship to Employment Patterns

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Brookings

FutureHousing

Changing

Household

Types

The growth is in non-traditional-

family households

Singles

Unmarried couples or childless couples

Roommates

Single parents

Non-traditional-family

households

Willing to pioneer new areas

Less concerned about school districts

Looking to balance price and lifestyle

Married renters & single buyers

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HousingSummary:

Demographic Changes Driving

New Residential Development

Maturing Boomers:

Luxury homes/condos and some rentals

More affluent demand top-flight amenities and services

GenX not having children yet, but soon

Moving into ownership

Echo Boom generation:

Tomorrow’s renter--after 2008

Less affluent than GenX, doubling up, living with parents

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What will Columbia’s economy, landscape &infrastructure look like to compete in 21st C?54

21st Century cities are being held accountable to increasingly complex performance benchmarks. Competition around metrics like :

workforce readiness

emission reductions

mobility indices

quality of life

public health, &

geopolitical risk

are driving economic development in the international marketplace

By asking the key questions:

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1) Demographic Growth: Demographics will drive unprecedented demand for housing, jobs & public services.How will Columbia’s demographics change in a global economy?

2) Competitiveness: Seventy percent of U.S. economic output is located in metro regions. What should our community be doing to nurture economic clusters & embrace innovation?

Can we really just count on MU, state government, retail, banking & insurance companies to carry our economic prosperity into the future ?

The key questions . . . Continued

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3) Social Inclusion: What is necessary to care, train, & invest in citizens?How do social inclusion goals produce land use strategies?

4) The 2050 Good Life: How do shifting consumer preferences influence real estate products, mix of neighborhood uses & investment patterns?

How do we promote quality development ―up‖ & not just further out from the urban center ?

How do we help turn our suburban communities into successful 21st Century urban centers?

By writing a 21st C Comprehensive Plan for Columbia that will work

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I. How We Live (Livability)

A. Neighborhoods and Housing

B. Historic Preservation

C. Green Infrastructure: Open Space, Parks & Rec

D. Health & Human Services

II. How We Prosper (Opportunity)

A. Sustaining and Expanding the Economy

B. Building equity through Education, Job Training & Entrepreneurial Resources

A 21st C Comprehensive Plan . . . Continued58

III. Sustainable SystemsA. Community Facilities, Services & InfrastructureB. TransportationC. Resilience - Living with Water & Natural HazardsD. Environmental Quality

Note: Brookings Institute has released (4/2010) 39 policies -rebuilding physical assets to reorganizing work-force supports to collaborating at the regional scale - that can help strengthen its footing in an export-oriented, low-carbon & innovation-fueled world for communities to follow.

We need for smarter investments from the public & private sectors & how a shift to a low-carbon economy is vital for maintaining the country’s competitiveness.

And by Investing in . . .59

Residents

Entrepreneurs

Economic Strengths

Next Generation Infrastructure

. . . and Counting What Matters:

Business Income

Job Growth

Business Start-ups & Closures

Performance of our K–12 & Higher Education Systems

Opportunity for all

How will Columbia compete in the 21st Century? By . . .

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