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The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 1
Rail Freight Quality Report
3 December 2004, 11th Meeting of the
Rail Market Monitoring group
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 2
CER – general positions on freight
CER supports the opening up of the freight market in 2007 – more competition will strengthen the rail freight business, giving more business for us all..
CER recognises the key role of quality, including punctuality, in providing an attractive service for customers
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 3
Background
One year on….
Autumn 2004:
CER Update report published
Summer 2003:
CER-UIC-CIT Charter adopted
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 4
Developments in the rail freight market
One year on….
1. market performance
2. emerging trends
3. results on quality
4. what do we learn?
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 5
Developments in the rail freight market
One year on….
1. market performance
2. emerging trends
3. results on quality
4. what do we learn?
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 6
Rail freight aggregate output
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
EU-10
EU-15+CH+NO
TOTAL
Billion ton-km per quarter
Source:UIC
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 7
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Four largest operators in Western Europe
FS
SNCF
DB
UK FOCSource:UIC
Billion ton-km per quarter
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 8
..and in Central and Eastern Europe
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
PKP
LDZ
LG
CD
Source:UIC
Billion ton-km per quarter
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 9
Relative to the economy
% change on 3rd Quarter of 2003
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
DB SNCF FS RENFE PKP CD
t-kms GDP Industrial Production
Source:UIC and The Economist
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 10
Developments in the rail freight market
One year on….
1. market performance
2. emerging trends
3. results on quality
4. what do we learn?
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 11
Trend 1: rationalising operations
SNCF in focus
Billion Tonne-KilometresPer Year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000 2001 2002 2003
conventional
combined
Source:SNCF
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 12
Trend 2: stable prices
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
ROAD
RAIL
Price Index2000=100
Source:UK Office forNational Statistics,CSPI
Importance of Eurovignette Directive
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 13
Trend 3: greater product differentiation
Railion in focus
Offering different price/quality mixes
Spring 2003 – 3 new block train products
PlantrainsVariotrainsFlex-trains
Autumn 2003 - 2 new single-wagon load trains
ClassicQuality
Spring 2004 - block train offer extended to NL and DN
Some customers preferlow price option
68% of customerssurveyed prefer a low price-low performance deal for single-wagon load
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 14
Trend 4: more information for customers
Several members adopt GPS systems
• track and trace wagons in real time• customers see information every few minutes via secure website• issues remain over accurate prediction of arrival
time, if an incident occurs
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 15
Trend 5: new markets emerging
“Our aim is to provide a next day delivery service on all our parcels which is becoming increasingly more difficult on the congested road system where truck speeds are diminishing. Therefore we have beenputting the long-distance parcels on high speed trains”
Securicor Omega Express, UK.
Parcel traffic, retail sector, logistics…
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 16
Trend 6: political support grows
Rail freight is popular!
A UK survey conducted in December 2003 found 79% of people identified transferring freight off roads onto rail as a priority for Government in tackling congestion on motorways.
This was more than 4 times the number in favour of building more roads.
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 17
Developments in the rail freight market
One year on….
1. market performance
2. emerging trends
3. results on quality
4. what do we learn?
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 18
Increased use of Quality Clauses
25%30%
40%
55%
21%24%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total Freight CombinedTransport
ConventionalTransport
2003
2004
PercentageOf business Covered by Quality contracts
Survey of CER members
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 19
Improved punctuality
Punctuality of UIRR international combined transport trains(with one hour tolerance margin)
71%
56%
50%
56%
65%
69%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 (6 m)
In general for UIRR international trains
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 20
Improved punctuality
CER Corridor number 5: Antwerp-Basel
LINE Via RU AVERAGE
2002
AVERAGE
2003
BE/IT Bettembourg/Basel/Luino
SNCB/CFL/SNCF/SBB/FS
58,1% 78,4%
BE/CH Bettembourg/Basel
SNCB/CFL/SNCF/SBB
71,6% 79,8%
BE/FR Sterpenich/Bettembourg
SNCB/CFL/SNCF 70,8% 84,1%
Interoperable locomotives (T13/3000) introduced in 2003
New dedicated freight line: Athus-Meuse opened in 2004Punctuality up to 90 percent expected
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 21
Developments in the rail freight market
One year on….
1. market performance
2. emerging trends
3. results on quality
4. what do we learn?
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 22
Analysing the causes of delays
Danger in superficial analysis
We currently measure a subset of the market (UIRR trains). This leads to incentives for IMs:
1. In timetabling, to give the monitored trains ‘better slots’ than non-monitored trains.
2. If incidence occurs, priority given to monitored trains.
3. ‘Ticking boxes’ measurement is superficial e.g. ‘missing locomotive’. But why is it missing?
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 23
What do we learn?
1. Quality can be improved by more efficient use of existing infrastructure
But this is limited by existing priority rules and infrastructure in much of Europe.
Delays are inevitable if the network is congested, and priority is given to passengers
Freight operators need the possibility to buy train paths to run trains during the day over long distances in Europe.
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 24
What do we learn?
2. In many cases, operators cannot insure themselves against the risk of infrastructure failure. Therefore they cannot offer quality clauses at a competitive price.
Rational operators will only accept risk from compensation contract if they can pass on any risks which they themselves are not able to control.
Without secure infrastructure funding, IMs too are unlikely to accept risk.
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 25
What do we learn?
3. Infrastructure remains key – the Swiss example
% freighttrains arrivingless than 30 minutes late
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
2003
2004
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 26
What do we learn?
3. Infrastructure remains key
Bottlenecks in 2015 with currentInfrastructure capacity
Bottlenecks in 2015 with all futureplanned investments, including TENs
Source: UIC CTG and UIRR Study of infrastructure capacity reserves for combined transport by 2015.
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 27
Conclusions
Quality increased since Charter signed
Operators can improve performance, but concerns remain:
• Monitoring root causes of delay
• Priority rules (regionalisation of policy)
• Risk-sharing rules between IM and RU
• Quality infrastructure remains necessary, if not sufficient, condition for a competitive rail freight market
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 28
Thank you
Report available at www.cer.be
Edward Calthrop
00-32-2-213-0839
The Voice of European Railways
RMMS 11th meeting – 03 December 2004, Bruxelles 29
Annex: Finland
90% punctuality (<15 minutes)