The Value of a Draft Pick April, 2012. Using data, math, and reasoning to gain a competitive edge. Bill James: “The search for objective knowledge about

The Value of a Draft Pick

April, 2012

Using data, math, and reasoning to gain a competitive edge.

Bill James: “The search for objective knowledge about [hockey]”

What is analytics?

1. Corsi – Shots directed on goal minus shots directed on your own goal (proxy for possession)

2. Qualcomp – how good is the opposition that a player typically lines up against (how a coach is using a player)

3. Qualteam – how good are the teamates a player typically lines up with

What are advanced stats?

4. PDO – a combination of team shooting percentage and save percentage when a player is on the ice (proxy for luck)

5. Zone Start – percentage of offensive zone faceoffs when a player is on the ice

6. Predicted Goals Scored – how many goals a player or team should have scored given shot location and an average goalie (attempts to remove luck from player performance)

What are advanced stats?

Pavel Datsyuk vs Henrik Sedin

Statistic Pavel Datsyuk Henrik SedinLeague Rank

Corsi 13.5 12.4 (27 v 33)

QaulComp 0.076 0.055 (22 v 50)

QualTeam -0.085 0.469 (425 v 8)

ZoneStart 48% 71% (430 v 3)

PDO 101.3 102.5

What are the options?

Advanced stats services: Coleman Analytics (Mike Smith) – player performance by game situationSports Analytics Institute – full service based on scoring chances, game situation, cost/win, etc.Blueline Analytics – player contract and value analysis


Advanced stats services: PUCKS – ranks players by different skillsets (skating, shooting, etc.)Decision Lens – Advanced game stats (where goals are scored from, etc.) tied to game videoPuck Prospectus – Player and team projections aimed at bettors


Consultants/Freelancers: Gabe Desjardins, Vic Ferrari, etc. – advanced stats experts who evaluate trades, players, etc. on a fee for service basisIn-house stats experts:Several teams employ analytics experts full-time to evaluate different aspects of their business

San Jose – have been using advanced analytics since the lockout. Dean Lombardi bragged that they built San Jose on Analytics and he would do the same in LACalgary – hired a Director of Video and Statistical Analysis from Minnesota, and the Bruins stats guru John Weisbrod this yearMontreal – have use advanced statisticians to evaluate contracts since 2007

Who’s using it?

Pittsburg – subscribe to SAIBuffalo – Have analytics professionals on their payrollMontreal – have use advanced statisticians to evaluate contracts since 2007Vancouver –began using analytics soon after Mike Gillis took overBoston – rumored to have a very active analytics groupTampa – starting to invest in analyticsAtlanta/Winnipeg –using analytics

Who’s using it?

Player evaluation – offensive and defensive value, playing contextTeam evaluation – tactics, tendencies, cap efficiencyPlayer negotiationTraining and preparationProcurement and projectionTactics

What can it be used for

Traditional stats…

Alex Ovechkin

Henrik Sedin

Sidney Crosby

Joe Thornton

Pavel Datsyuk

Eric Staal Brad Richards

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Points/yrplus minus

…versus Advanced Stats

Defence-Independent Save Percentage

Slap shots on Brodeur at even strength

Wrist shots on Thomas during power plays

*Taken from “DIGR: A Defense Independent Rating of NHL Goaltenders using Spatially Smoothed Save Percentage” by Michael Schuckers

Goalie Rankings 2011

*Taken from “DIGR: A Defense Independent Rating of NHL Goaltenders using Spatially Smoothed Save Percentage” by Michael Schuckers

Rank Name DIGR RawSV%

1 Tim Thomas 0.9312 0.9386

2 Cory Schneider 0.9285 0.9253

3 Roberto Luongo 0.9269 0.9275

4 Jonas Hiller 0.9269 0.9249

5 Ilya Bryzgalov 0.9234 0.9211

6 Cam Ward 0.9232 0.9221

7 Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9227 0.9189

8 Devan Dubnyk 0.9224 0.9164

9 Corey Crawford 0.9219 0.9200

10 Carey Price 0.9218 0.9220

Player Value Metrics

Rank Name PTS Name +/- Name

Point Shar

e Name GVT1 Daniel Sedin 104 Zdeno Chara 33 Daniel Sedin 14.3Daniel Sedin 26.2

2Martin St. Louis 99 David Backes 32 Corey Perry 13.3Corey Perry 23.3

3 Corey Perry 98 Kevin Bieksa 32Lubomir Visnovsky 12.8Jonathan Toews 20.8

4Steven Stamkos 91 Toni Lydman 32 Steven Stamkos 12.2Martin St. Louis 20.4

5Jarome Iginla 86 Matt Carle 30 Martin St. Louis 11.3Alex Ovechkin 20.1

6Alex Ovechkin 85

Adam McQuaid 30 Alex Ovechkin 11.2Jarome Iginla 19.8

7Teemu Selanne 80

Andrej Meszaros 30 Jarome Iginla 11Ryan Kesler 19.3

8 H Zetterberg 80 Daniel Sedin 30 Henrik Sedin 10.6Lubomir Visnovsky 19.2

9Brad Richards 77 Dan Hamhuis 29

Christian Ehrhoff 10.4Anze Kopitar 18.9

10 Eric Staal 76 Nathan Horton 29 Ryan Kesler 10.4Steven Stamkos 18.8

11Claude Giroux 76

Brian Campbell 28 Alex Goligoski 10.2Henrik Sedin 18

12Jonathan Toews 76 Milan Lucic 28 Sidney Crosby 10.1Alex Tanguay 17.6

13Thomas Vanek 73 Jeff Carter 27 Shea Weber 10.1Teemu Selanne 17.6

14 Ryan Kesler 73 A. Burrows 26 Zdeno Chara 10Brad Richards 17.5

15Patrick Marleau 73 Henrik Sedin 26 Teemu Selanne 10Sidney Crosby 17.4

16 Patrick Kane 73 Anze Kopitar 25 Keith Yandle 9.9Claude Giroux 17.3

17 Anze Kopitar 73Brad Marchand 25 Kris Letang 9.8David Backes 17.1

18Loui Eriksson 73

Jonathan Toews 25 Jonathan Toews 9.8Thomas Vanek 16.8

19 Bobby Ryan 71Nicklas Backstrom 24 Dustin Byfuglien 9.6

Michael Grabner 16.8

20Patrick Sharp 71 Ryan Kesler 24 Drew Doughty 9.6Jeff Carter 16.6



Point Shar






6Alex Ovechkin 85


7Teemu Selanne 80






11Claude Giroux 76








18Loui Eriksson 73







Point Shar






6Alex Ovechkin 85


7Teemu Selanne 80






11Claude Giroux 76








18Loui Eriksson 73





Principals behind GVT

1. The objective of hockey is to win2. The key to winning is goal differential3. Assigning goal differential to players gives us

player value4. Approximately 6 goals in differential is worth

one win

Kovalchuk vs. Kaleta 2010

- Adds ~15 goals/yr over past three years

- Equates to ~2.5 wins- Paid ~$7.5 million- $3.5 million / win

- Draws ~ +30 penalties/yr- Equates to ~5 goals, 0.8

wins- Paid ~600K- $0.72 million / win

Let’s talk about the draft

Detroit Red Wings GVTMax GVT by round

Detroit Red Wings GVTDetroit GVT Drafting

Minnesota Wild GVTMinnesota GVT Drafting

Edmonton Oilers GVTEdmonton GVT Drafting

San Jose Sharks GVTSan Jose GVT Drafting

DET

BUF

SJS

COL

NJD

BOS

STL

EDM

PIT

PHI

NSH

PHX

CBJ

MIN

TBL

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

Average GVT

Analysis of Point Share and GVTTeam Drafting Efficiency (Round 3+)

San Jose Draft GVT Distribution

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 >200.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

NHL Distribution

NHL Draft GVT Distribution

Marginal players Good players Stars Superstars


2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 >200.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

NHL Distribution San Jose



Edmonton GVT Distribution

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 >200.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

NHL Distribution Edmonton

Edmonton Draft GVT Distribution


Detroit GVT Distribution

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 >200.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

NHL Distribution Detroit

Detroit Draft GVT Distribution


Minnesota GVT Distribution

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 >200.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

NHL Distribution Minnesota

Minnesota Draft GVT Distribution

What about player origin?

Minnesota GVT DistributionAverage GVT by League

Rank League Total GVT # Of PicksAverage

GVT 90th Percentile 1 CZECH 447.2 183 2.44 10.62 SLOVAKIA 110.1 61 1.80 6.253 SWEDEN 428.4 264 1.62 5.904 RUSSIA 506.9 344 1.47 5.635 NCAA 451.1 358 1.26 4.256 FINLAND 229.5 184 1.25 4.747 QMJHL 362.2 369 0.98 3.198 WHL 545.9 630 0.87 3.389 OHL 502.7 604 0.83 2.82

10 BCHL 40.8 57 0.72 1.8411 USHS 237.7 333 0.71 1.4012 SWITZERLAND 21.6 33 0.65 0.0813 USHL 98 161 0.61 1.5014 AJHL 13.8 27 0.51 0.8415 USAN18 9.6 28 0.34 0.15

Who Should the Oilers Draft This Year?

*Max GVT in first seven years of NHL career

GVT*

Defensemen vs. Forwards

Documents

The Value of a Draft Pick April, 2012. Using data, math, and reasoning to gain a competitive edge. Bill James: “The search for objective knowledge about