The US Presidency and American Foreign

Policy

The Most Powerful Job on Earth

Presidential Powers

• Article 2, Section 1:– Executive Power in a Prez and

VP for 4 years

• Article 2, Section 2:– Commander-in-Chief– Pardons– Make treaties– Nominate and appoint and fill

vacancies

Presidential Powers

• Article 2, Section 3:– Information on State of the Union– Convene Special Congressional

Sessions– Receive Foreign ambassadors

• Article 2, Section 4:– Removed by Impeachment for

treason, bribery, high crimes and misdemeanors

Presidential Powers

• 20th Amendment:– Changed term to begin January

20

• 22nd Amendment:– 2 terms

• 25th Amendment:– Presidential succession and

disability

Presidential Expectations

• Chief of State• Chief Executive• Commander-in-Chief• Chief Diplomat• Chief Legislator• Party Chief• Voice of the people• Protector of the Peace• Manager of the Prosperity• World leader

ALL AT THE SAME TIME!!

Presidential Limitations

• Congress

• Courts

• Bureaucracy

• Federalism

• Capitalism

• Public

• Time

• Outside Forces

Evolution of the Presidency

• Traditional “Do Nothing” Presidency

• “Modern Presidency”– greater formal and informal

powers for initiative– increased staff and advisory

capacity• Brownlow Commission Report

(1937)• EOP (1939)

– agenda setter– most visible national actor

Presidential Leadership

• No-Win Presidency?

• Lead by Command or by Persuasion?

• The President’s Helpers

• The One, The Few, or The Many?

Advising the President

The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly

The Good: Brent Scowcroft (?)

• NSA to Ford and “41”

• General, USAF (ret.)

• PhD Columbia

• (pic courtesy www.scowcroft.com)

The Bad: John M. Poindexter (!)

• NSA to Reagan ’85-86

• Vice Admiral, USN (ret.)

• convicted in 1990 of conspiracy, obstruction of justice, and destruction of evidence in connection with the Iran-Contra affair

• Overturned on appeal

• (Don Rypka-AFP)• Condi is a close

second?

The Ugly: You pick…

The “First”

• McGeorge Bundy

• JFK and LBJ, 1961-1966

• Harvard’s Dean of the Faculty at 34

• 1919-1996

• Actually the first was Robert Cutler for Ike

The Current• Stephen J. Hadley• Rice’s Deputy• CIA called him twice

to waive off the Niger uranium story

• Lawyer, and worked at the Scowcroft Group

• NSC (Staff) in Ford administration (NATO and Europe)

• b. 1947, Toledo, OH• BA, Cornell (’69) ;

JD, Yale (’72)(Pic stolen from usinfo.state.gov)

It’s MY power!

• National Security Act 1947– NSC– JCS– SecDef (et al.)– CIA

• Increasing reliance on NSC staff

• Centralization of policymaking in the White House

OK, not really all “in” the White House:

Eisenhower (Old) Executive Office Building

Advising the President

• Short Run Advantages for the President

• Long Run Disadvantages for the Presidency?

• Principal-Agent Relationships

Advising the President

• Alexander L. George, Presidential Decisionmaking in Foreign Policy: The Effective Use of Information and Advice (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1980)

Staffing Systems(Ideal Types)

• Formalistic

• Competitive

• Collegial

Formalistic Systems

Formalistic Systems

More Formalism

Competitive System

Collegial Model

Decision-Making Tasks

• Survey Objectives

• Canvass Alternatives

• Search for Information

• Assimilate and Process New and Discrepant Information

• Evaluate Costs, Risks, Implications

• Develop Implementation, Monitoring, and Contingency Plans

Process-Outcomes

• Irving Janis: Groupthink

Process-Outcome Link?

• Herek, G. M., I. Janis and P. Huth, Decision Making during International Crisis: Is Quality of Process Related to Outcome? Journal of Conflict Resolution 31 (1987): 203-226.

• Mark Shafer and Scott Crichlow“The Process-Outcome Connection in Foreign Policy Decision Making: A Quantitative Study Building on Groupthink,” International Studies Quarterly 46 (March 2002): 45-68.

• Figure from John T. Rourke and Mark A. Boyer, International Politics on the World Stage (Boston: McGraw-Hill, 2004, 5/ed brief edition)

Getting it Right

• George: Multiple Advocacy

• Not sure I can tell you how to guarantee success, but I can tell you how to nearly guarantee failure. And scandal.