Upload
others
View
7
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
THE UPPER COLORADO RIVERIN CONTEXT
We are here!
John Currier
May 26, 2015
Colorado River District1937 state statute
15 board directors
Property tax & water enterprise
One of 4 WCD districts in Colorado
Transmountain Diversions (to east)and Downstream Delivery (to west)
450,000 to600,000 af/yr 6 to 10
MAF/Yr
Salt Lake City Wasatch Front
AlbuquerqueSanta Fe
Las Vegas
VenturaLos Angeles San Diego
MexicaliTijuana
Ft. Collins Greeley BoulderDenver
CO SpringsPueblo
Phoenix Tucson
Cheyenne
Law of the River Allocations 7.5 MAF to Upper Basin ( %’s)1
7.5 MAF to Lower Basin (4.4 CA; 2.8 AZ; 0.3 NV)2
1.5 MAF to Mexico3_________________________
16.0 MAF Total Allocated ‘on paper’4
1 1922 Colorado River Compact, 1948 Upper Colorado River Compact2 Colorado River Compact, 1929 Black Canyon Project Act, 1964 AZ v. CA
3 Treaty of 19444 1 MAF Lower Basin tributary allocation not shown
Upper Basin uses, incl. reservoir evap. 4.2
Lower Basin mainstem uses 7.52
Lower Basin system losses and evap. 1.2Mexico 1.5Total Lower Basin 10.2
TOTAL 14.4
Current Use EstimatesMAF/ year
Hydrology comparison
• 2000-2014 12.3 MAF @ LF• 1988-2014 13.2 MAF @ LF • Basin Study CC 13.7 MAF @ LF• 1906-2014 GR 14.8 MAF @ LF• 1120-1172 PH 12.7 MAF @ LF
CC = climate change, GR = gage period, PH = paleo-hydrology
Data from Reclamation’s Naturalized Flows database
Monthly Values for the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO ) Index
Lee Ferry NF ave. 13.2 MAF/yr when AMO is warm Lee Ferry NF ave. 16.2 MAF/yr when AMO is cool
In 1965 Royce Tipton noted that from 1930-1964 the UB could develop about 4.8MAF/yr (2.5 MAF for Colorado)
975
1,000
1,025
1,050
1,075
1,100
1,125
1,150
1,175
1,200
1,225
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
24 Month
2014
2015
Projected2016
2017
2018
2019
2020Lake Mead Elevation Since 2000
Lake Mead Elevation (EOM) Projected 24 Month 8.23 MAF Releases First Shortage Tier
January 200091% Active Storage
12.52 MAF ReleaseWY 2011
Graph courtesy of CAP
975
1,000
1,025
1,050
1,075
1,100
1,125
1,150
1,175
1,200
1,225
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
24 Month
2014
2015
Projected2016
2017
2018
2019
2020Lake Mead Elevation Since 2000
Lake Mead Elevation (EOM) Projected 24 Month 8.23 MAF Releases First Shortage Tier
January 200091% Active Storage
12.52 MAF ReleaseWY 2011
Hydrology
Structural Deficit
Graph courtesy of CAP
2015 Another DRY year! • System storage will continue to decline• Lake Mead deliveries could see first
shortage in 2016 or more likely 2017• Lake Powell levels will continue to decline
moving us closer to min. power• California is still in an historic drought• Pressure on the states will intensify to
implement contingency plans
CONTINGENCY PLANNING• Challenge from Interior:
– What if the current drought were to continue into the future?
– Have a plan in place by 2015 (MOA or similar)• The Goal:
– Identify actions that can “bend the curve”, i.e., reduce the risk of losing power production or being unable to deliver water
• Possible Solutions:– Extended Operation of CRSP reservoirs– Demand Management– Cloud seeding / other augmentation
Colorado River Storage Project Units (CRSP)
SOURCE: USBR UPPERCOLORADO REGIONLEVELS AS OF5/21/2015
CRSP Acts of 1956 & 1968 authorized
construction of facilities for long-term
regulation & development of Colorado River water resources
fill
Flaming Gorge 3.7MAF active capacity 85% full
fill
fill
Blue Mesa0.84MAF active capacity75% full
fill
Lake Powell 26 MAF active capacity 46% full
Navajo 1.7 MAF active capacity72% full
Lake Powell
Lake Mead
Future of the Colorado River?